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  • On this episode of China Uncensored,

    本集《中國解密》:

  • China's next financial crisis is lurking in the shadows...

    中國下一波金融風暴 在暗影中潛伏

  • of shadow banking.

    在影子銀行的暗影中潛伏

  • It's like China stacked up 9 trillion dollars...

    有如中國在懸崖邊

  • on the edge of a cliff.

    堆起九兆元的現金

  • Hi, welcome to China Uncensored.

    歡迎收看《中國解密》

  • I'm Matt Gnaizda.

    我是 Matt Gnaizda

  • I'm in today for Chris Chappell,

    今天為 Chris Chappell 代班

  • who's on vacation,

    因為他度假去了

  • possibly in the South China Sea.

    可能去了中國南海

  • Today, we're going to talk about shadow banking.

    今天我們要談談影子銀行

  • It's like the evil twin of regular banking.

    有點像一般銀行的邪惡兄弟

  • Shadow banking involves lots of money,

    影子銀行牽涉到龐大的資金

  • and lots of risk.

    與非常高的風險

  • And it's tied to China's crazy investment boom.

    也和中國的投資熱潮息息相關

  • China's economic boom

    中國的經濟繁榮

  • and its reliance on shadow banking

    以及對影子銀行的依賴

  • is similar in some ways

    有點類似 2007 年

  • to the US economic boom in 2007.

    美國的經濟榮景

  • Remember:

    別忘了

  • A lot of great things happened in 2007.

    2007 年發生了很多好事

  • Apple released the iPhone 1.

    蘋果公司推出了 iPhone 1

  • The last Harry Potter book was published...

    哈利波特完結篇也出版了…

  • which Chris still has not read.

    Chris 到現在都還沒讀

  • And the US economy had its last...good...year.

    美國的經濟盛世也來到了尾聲

  • Because then this happened.

    因為接下來這個發生了

  • Stocks all around the world are tanking

    由於華爾街危機

  • because of the crisis on Wall Street.”

    全世界的股市一片慘淡

  • The stock market is now down 21%”

    股市下跌了 21%

  • We have armageddon.

    這是世界末日

  • In the fixed income markets we have armageddon.”

    固定收益證卷的 現況跟本就是世界末日

  • No, but...”

    但是…

  • We have armageddon.”

    這是世界末日

  • Armageddon”—thanks Jim Cramer

    吉姆·克藍瑪謝謝

  • happened after the failure

    這場世界末日的肇因

  • of a single investment bank had a domino effect

    起源於一家投資銀行破產

  • on the entire global financial system.

    引發全球金融系統的骨牌效應

  • Trillions of dollars were lost,

    損失多達好幾兆美元

  • and so were millions of jobs.

    也造成數百萬人失業

  • Well, it's been ten years since then.

    這已經是十年前的事了

  • These guys have recovered,

    這些肥貓已經回到老位子

  • but these guys...not so much.

    但失業的人可沒拿回工作

  • But now, this same kind of

    這種大好大壞的景況

  • boom and crash could happen in China

    可能也會遵循同樣的模式

  • and for the same reason.

    在中國發生

  • As Bloomberg puts it,

    《彭博》指出

  • China is playing a 9 trillion dollar game of chicken

    中國正在進行一場金額九兆元

  • called Shadow Banking.

    名為影子銀行的懦夫博弈

  • And like a game of chicken,

    如同懦夫博弈

  • some investors will get out in time.

    有些投資者能即時退出

  • But others will plunge off the cliff,

    有些人卻煞不住車

  • bursting into a ball of flames on the rocks below.

    最終墜崖起火爆炸

  • So what is this totally legit

    所以這個聽起來合法又可靠的

  • and trustworthy soundingshadow banking”?

    影子銀行究竟是什麼呢?

  • To put it simply,

    簡單來說

  • shadow banking is when banks

    影子銀行是指一家銀行

  • or companies that are not banks

    或者不是銀行的公司

  • lend money outside of the normal structure

    以非正規銀行 存款與貸款的方式

  • of bank deposits and loans.

    提供借貸

  • Here's a simplified explanation.

    舉個簡單的例子

  • In the traditional banking system,

    在傳統的銀行系統中

  • if a business owner wants to grow his business,

    業主若想拓展事業

  • he goes to a bank, and that bank loans him money.

    就會向銀行申請貸款

  • Over time,

    過了一段時間

  • he repays that money to the bank,

    業主還清貸款

  • plus interest.

    包含利息

  • Let's say a single bank makes 100 loans.

    假設一家銀行 提供了 100 筆貸款

  • It's pretty careful about who it loans to.

    也仔細審核了貸款對象

  • But even so,

    但是

  • some of the businesses will fail,

    一定會有一些企業倒閉

  • so Chinese regulations require

    因此,中國的法律規定

  • that the bank set aside money

    銀行必須撥出一筆資金

  • to cover potential losses.

    用來負擔潛在的損失

  • But shadow banking operates

    但是影子銀行的作業模式

  • outside that traditional system.

    跳脫了傳統的借貸規範

  • Let's say 100 businesses want loans.

    假如有 100 家企業需要貸款

  • A shadow bank packages those 100 potential loans

    影子銀行就會將這些潛在貸款

  • into what's called a Wealth Management Product.

    另外包裝成財富管理產品

  • Then it goes to investors and is like,

    接著銀行就向投資人推銷

  • Hey, buy our Wealth Management Product.

    「來買我們的財富管理產品吧

  • It has a high interest rate.”

    利率很高喔」

  • When the businesses repay,

    當企業還清貸款時

  • the investors will get their investment back

    投資者就能拿回本金

  • plus a lot of interest.

    以及很高的利率

  • This is shadow banking.

    這就是所謂的影子銀行

  • It can also get more complicated.

    當然,有時情況會更複雜

  • Because sometimes the bank isn't a bank,

    因為發行財富管理產品的

  • but just a regular company

    不一定是銀行

  • that packages investments.

    有時可能是一般的公司

  • And sometimes the businesses

    這些貸款的對象

  • that want to borrow money

    也不一定是一般企業

  • aren't regular businesses.

    有時可能是地方政府

  • They might even be a local government

    想藉由貸款來建造橋樑等等

  • that wants money to build a bridge or whatever.

    藉由重新包裝

  • All these things can be packaged

    很多東西都能成為 財富管理產品

  • into Wealth Management Products,

    或是其他類型的金融產品

  • or other types of financial products,

    然後賣給投資者

  • and then sold to investors

    或賣給投資公司

  • or sold to investment companies,

    投資公司再重新包裝

  • which then re-package them

    轉賣給個體戶

  • before selling to individual investors.

    許多時候

  • A lot of times,

    影子銀行貸款變得相當複雜

  • shadow bank loans get so complicated

    根本沒人知道

  • that no one understands

    實際的風險有多高

  • exactly what the risk is.

    根據這篇文章

  • According to this article,

    信貸重新包裝後變得很複雜

  • The repackaging of credit is so complex

    銀行行員若想向客戶解釋清楚

  • that bankers often have to resort to

    就必須畫出像 魯布戈德堡機械般

  • line drawings that look like schematic plans

    錯綜複雜的示意圖

  • for a Rube Goldberg device

    才有辦法解釋清楚

  • to explain to clients what's going on.”

    就跟魯布戈德堡機械一樣

  • A Rube Goldberg device.

    只要拉動一個槓桿

  • Like when you pull a lever,

    就會啟動輪子

  • that sets a wheel in motion,

    這些骨牌就會倒塌

  • that knocks down some dominoes,

    最終摧毀整個經濟體

  • that ends up destroying the economy.

    講這麼多影子銀行

  • But all this shadow banking

    和什麼財富管理產品

  • and Wealth Management whatevers

    實在太複雜了

  • are so complicated!

    投資者才不想了解細節

  • Investors don't want to know details!

    所以涉入影子銀行的公司

  • That's why companies involved in shadow banking

    推出了溫暖人心的廣告

  • put out feel-good ads like this:

    每個人心裡面都有一道陽光

  • Everyone holds sunshine at their hearts

    照亮你的一生

  • Everbright your life

    中國光大銀行

  • China Everbright Bank

    看到了嗎?

  • See?

    只要把錢交給我們

  • Give us your money,

    你的心裡就會有陽光

  • and you'll have sunshine in your heart!

    廣告中的光大銀行

  • That bank, Everbright,

    是合法的商業銀行

  • is actually a legit commercial bank.

    他們也做一般的貸款業務

  • It makes regular loans, too.

    但是,他們最近也向投資者

  • But recently it's also been selling

    發行了許多影子銀行產品

  • a lot of shadow banking products to investors,

    因為這有助於光大銀行

  • because that allows Everbright

    將利潤最大化

  • to maximize profit without putting

    自身的資金卻不會有風險

  • so much of its own money on the line.

    可說是把風險賣給投資人

  • Basically, it sells the risk to investors.

    但是很多中國的投資人

  • But a lot of Chinese investors

    都不在意風險

  • don't think risk matters that much,

    因為就算出了問題

  • because the Chinese government will probably

    中國政府應該也會紓困

  • bail everyone out if things go badly.

    這篇《彭博》 報導中的一位投資人

  • Like this investor in this Bloomberg article,

    認為財富管理產品

  • who explains that the Chinese government

    涉及到這麼多投資人 政府肯定不會視而不管

  • would never let a big wealth management product fail,

    因為那不是中國的文化

  • because it's just not Chinese culture.

    聽起來有點痴心妄想對吧?

  • Sounds like wishful thinking, right?

    不過中國政府

  • But the Chinese government has

    的確曾為銀行紓困

  • bailed out banks in the past.

    例如 2004 年中國就曾 撥出 450 億為銀行紓困

  • Like the $45 billion dollar bailout in 2004.

    所以認為中國會 再次紓困其實有點道理

  • So assuming they'll do it again seems reasonable.

    但你只要讀過 任何投資產品的購買條款

  • Although if you've ever read the terms and conditions

    上面一定會特別強調

  • on any investment product ever,

    過去的表現

  • you've seen thatpast performance

    並無法保證未來的績效

  • is no guarantee of future results.”

    雖然中國政府在過去

  • Sure, the Chinese government may have done

    曾撥出少少的 450 億元紓困金

  • a small 45 billion dollar bailout in the past.

    但這次的金額高達九兆 他們不一定想付這筆錢

  • But it doesn't want to do a 9 trillion dollar bailout now.

    而且別忘了

  • Besides, back then,

    那時中國幾乎沒有影子銀行

  • there was almost no shadow banking in China.

    十年前的經融風暴過後

  • It only started happening on a large scale

    影子銀行才開始盛行

  • after the global financial crisis ten years ago.

    為了刺激中國的經濟

  • Authorities tried to stimulate China's economy

    政府鼓勵銀行發放更多貸款

  • by having banks lend more money.

    隨著貸款需求增加

  • But soon, demand for borrowing got so high

    銀行的資金已不足以應付

  • that banks didn't have enough money to lend people.

    所以銀行就將貸款重新包裝

  • So banks started packaging loans

    賣給投資者以換取現金

  • and selling them to investors to get the cash.

    影子銀行的市場已經大到

  • And it became such a big market,

    連不是銀行的一般公司

  • other companies that aren't even banks

    也想分一杯羹

  • got into the game.

    根據一份 2016 年的報告

  • According to a 2016 report,

    中國目前所有的貸款當中

  • shadow bank loans now make up

    影子銀行就佔了 57%

  • 57 percent all loans in China.

    換句話說

  • In other words,

    中國超過一半的貸款

  • more than half of all lending in China now

    都是透過影子銀行借貸的

  • is actually done through shadow banking!

    而這是個很大的問題

  • And this is a big problem

    因為影子銀行的風險

  • because shadow bank loans are usually

    遠遠高出一般貸款的風險

  • a lot riskier than traditional loans.

    隨著公司不斷重新包裝

  • Once companies start packaging and repackaging,

    產品的風險也更加難以追蹤

  • it's easy to lose track of what the risk actually is.

    有時甚至聽起來是個好主意

  • It even starts to seem like a good idea,

    就跟不帶降落傘跳機一樣

  • like jumping out of a plane without a parachute.

    老兄,別傻了

  • The problem is,

    只有基努·李維才做得到

  • it only works if you're you're Keanu Reeves, dude.

    影子銀行還有另一個問題

  • Oh, and there's another problem.

    這些貸款都沒有記錄在

  • Shadow banking loans don't get recorded

    銀行的資產負債表上

  • on banks' balance sheets.

    所以銀行的帳上財務狀況

  • That makes banks look

    看起來比現實狀況健康

  • healthier than they actually are

    這也是造成高風險的因素

  • and that also increases the risk.

    你知道嗎?

  • And guess what?

    美國 2007 年的金融風暴

  • That's exactly what happened in the US

    就是這樣發生的

  • leading up to the 2007 crisis.

    那些銀行將房屋貸款

  • Banks had been packaging

    不斷進行包裝

  • and repackaging home loans,

    並且多次轉賣這種投資組合

  • then selling and reselling the packages,

    最後連萊曼兄弟的書呆子們

  • and eventually even the nerds at Lehman Brothers

    都不知道如何計算風險

  • had no idea how to calculate the risk anymore.

    美國的影子銀行投資

  • Shadow banking in the US was the lever

    導致了全球的金融風暴

  • that set the global financial crisis in motion,

    諷刺的是

  • and ironically, its domino effect

    這場金融風暴的骨牌效應

  • is what led to the rise of

    導致中國的影子銀行崛起

  • shadow banking in China.

    現在,中國政府非常擔心

  • And now Chinese authorities are getting worried

    即將到來的問題

  • about what's coming next.

    事實上

  • In fact,

    中國人民銀行行長周小川 已經公開警告

  • Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of China's central bank

    政府必須採取一些措施

  • has openly warned that authorities

    來降低金融風險

  • need to curb financial risks

    以免發生明斯基時刻

  • that might lead to a 'Minsky Moment'—

    即長期的金融成長後

  • a sudden collapse of asset prices,

    因債務或匯率壓力增加

  • sparked by debt or currency pressures,

    導致資產價格大幅下跌

  • after a long period of growth.”

    也就是說影子銀行的壞債

  • Basically, bad debt in shadow banking

    可能拖垮中國整體經濟

  • could end up wrecking the Chinese economy.

    中國經濟一旦發生問題

  • And if the Chinese economy gets wrecked,

    將對中國共產黨

  • it could lead to serious consequences

    造成極為嚴重的影響

  • for the Chinese Communist Party.

    因為沒有人

  • You know, because no one

    真的相信 共產主義那種鬼東西了

  • believes in that communism stuff anymore,

    所以中國政府要人民多賺錢

  • so they tell people to go make money

    不要無聊談政治

  • and don't talk about politics.

    不過一但投資者損失慘重時

  • But if people start losing their money

    大家可能又會開始談政治了

  • on a massive scale,

    像是這件事要怪誰

  • people might start talking about politics again

    因此,在七月份的高層會議中

  • like who's to blame.

    習近平宣布財務安全

  • That's why, at a top level conference in July,

    對國家安全有重大影響

  • Xi Jinping declared that financial security

    所謂的國家安全 當然是指中國共產黨

  • was vital to national security.

    能否繼續掌權

  • National securityis of course code for the CCP

    但今年不是 2007 年

  • securing its power over the nation.

    是 2018 年了

  • But it's not 2007 anymore.

    我們已經有 iPhone 10

  • It's 2018.

    強尼·戴普成了哈利波特的反派

  • We have iPhone 10s,

    而中國的影子銀行

  • Johnny Depp is a Harry Potter villain,

    也累積了高達九兆的貸款

  • and Chinese shadow banking has swelled

    一旦經濟出現問題

  • to more than $9 trillion.

    中國政府的紓困方案

  • The Chinese government can't afford

    將無法解救所有人

  • to bail everyone out

    雖然他們試圖控制影子銀行

  • when things go south.

    但是只要老虎一出籠子

  • They're trying to rein in shadow banking.

    我猜

  • But once you let the tiger out of the cage,

    老虎就會到處吃人吧

  • well, it...

    你對影子銀行有什麼看法呢?

  • I guess it runs around and eats people.

    將你的想法留在下面

  • So what do you think of China's shadow banking?

    我是主持人 Matt Gnaizda

  • Leave your comments below.

    又到了我們做那件事的時間了

  • Once again I'm Matt Gnaizda.

    你還在啊?

  • Now it's time for that thing we do at the end.

    太好了

  • You're still here?

    別擔心

  • Good.

    我沒有完全接管中國解密

  • Don't worry,

    Chris 很快就回來了

  • I haven't taken over China Uncensored.

    如果你喜歡我們的節目

  • Chris will be back soon.

    請幫我按一下這個橘色按鈕

  • In the meantime,

    贊助我們的節目

  • if you like this show,

    你可以每集捐一美元或更多金額

  • we hope you can click on this orange button

    我們會投資在 中國的財富管理產品上

  • and support us by pledging

    按一下前往我們的 Patreon 贊助專頁

  • a dollar or more per episode.

  • We'll invest it in a Chinese wealth management product.

  • Click to go to our fundraising website Patreon.

On this episode of China Uncensored,

本集《中國解密》:

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