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  • Many people expected the reveal of the iPhone X to trigger an upgrade super cycle

    許多人期待 iPhone X 引起一波超級週期

  • and lead to a great increase in number of iPhones sold in 2018.

    並帶起 2018 年銷售量的成長

  • One of the reasons that people expected this was because the iPhone X

    其中的原因是因為 iPhone X

  • was gonna be one of the first new design reveals since the iPhone 6.

    即將成為 iPhone 6 後的新設計

  • UBS sees it a little bit differently. Results from UBS evidence lab smartphone survey

    瑞銀集團在智慧型手機普查中看到了不一樣的東西

  • show buying intentions are flattish from a year ago

    顯示購買意願在一年前就開始持平

  • for people planning to upgrade their iPhone.

    從人們計畫更新自己的手機開始

  • And they're also showing that the average age of handsets

    然後他們也調查出平均持有手機的時間

  • is stabilizing at about two to two and a half years,

    差不多在兩年到兩年半

  • so this hasn't shown, according to their data, a huge increase in the number of people that are buying the new iPhone X.

    因此從這裡的數據無法得知會有一大群人會買 iPhone X

  • UBS still expects strong sales but they do not see the super cycle happening.

    瑞銀集團還是預期有不錯的銷售,但他們並沒有看到超級週期即將發生

  • One of the reasons could be

    其中的可能是

  • that the features that Apple was presenting and that they were so excited

    蘋果興奮地展現的特色

  • about are not what consumers care about.

    不是消費者所在乎的

  • According to the UBS data,

    根據瑞銀集團的數據

  • the things that people care about are still

    人們在乎的還是

  • price and battery life.

    價格跟電池壽命

  • Certainly what I care about, it's the only thing I've talked about in my iPhone X.

    也是我當我談到 iPhone X 唯一會在乎的事

  • The things people don't care about that they care about the least,

    那些人們根本不在乎的事,

  • that they rate more unimportant than important,

    他們列為相對不重要的事

  • are virtual reality, Face ID and augmented reality,

    是虛擬實境、Face ID,還有擴增實境

  • which are three of the biggest things that they revealed

    是這次在發表會上推出的

  • during their big presentation.

    三大重點

  • UBS still has a "buy" rating on the stock

    瑞銀集團的股票還是「買入」的等級,

  • and has a price target of a hundred and ninety dollars per share

    且有每股 190 美元的目標價格

  • over the next 12 months.

    在未來的 12 個月裡

  • They just don't expect to see a pickup in iPhone sales.

    他們只是沒有像其他人一樣

  • that many others had expected.

    預測 iPhone 銷量會增加

  • According to UBS's is Stephen Milunovich,

    根據瑞銀集團的 Stephen Mellon Ovitch:

  • "The stock narrative should from iPhone to cycles to iPhone annuity

    「股票分析應該要從 iPhone 的週期轉換到年度 —

  • How does Apple monetize the installed base through additional products and services?"

    蘋果如何從安裝基本配備的附加產品、服務獲利?」

  • And that's the bottom line.

    那就是最重要的事

Many people expected the reveal of the iPhone X to trigger an upgrade super cycle

許多人期待 iPhone X 引起一波超級週期

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