and lead to a great increase in number of iPhones sold in 2018.

並帶起 2018 年銷售量的成長

One of the reasons that people expected this was because the iPhone X

其中的原因是因為 iPhone X

was gonna be one of the first new design reveals since the iPhone 6.

即將成為 iPhone 6 後的新設計

UBS sees it a little bit differently. Results from UBS evidence lab smartphone survey

瑞銀集團在智慧型手機普查中看到了不一樣的東西

show buying intentions are flattish from a year ago

顯示購買意願在一年前就開始持平

for people planning to upgrade their iPhone.

從人們計畫更新自己的手機開始

And they're also showing that the average age of handsets

然後他們也調查出平均持有手機的時間

is stabilizing at about two to two and a half years,

差不多在兩年到兩年半

so this hasn't shown, according to their data, a huge increase in the number of people that are buying the new iPhone X.

因此從這裡的數據無法得知會有一大群人會買 iPhone X

UBS still expects strong sales but they do not see the super cycle happening.

瑞銀集團還是預期有不錯的銷售，但他們並沒有看到超級週期即將發生

One of the reasons could be

其中的可能是

that the features that Apple was presenting and that they were so excited

蘋果興奮地展現的特色

about are not what consumers care about.

不是消費者所在乎的

According to the UBS data,

根據瑞銀集團的數據

the things that people care about are still

人們在乎的還是

price and battery life.

價格跟電池壽命

Certainly what I care about, it's the only thing I've talked about in my iPhone X.

也是我當我談到 iPhone X 唯一會在乎的事

The things people don't care about that they care about the least,

那些人們根本不在乎的事，

that they rate more unimportant than important,

他們列為相對不重要的事

are virtual reality, Face ID and augmented reality,

是虛擬實境、Face ID，還有擴增實境

which are three of the biggest things that they revealed

是這次在發表會上推出的

during their big presentation.

三大重點

UBS still has a "buy" rating on the stock

瑞銀集團的股票還是「買入」的等級，

and has a price target of a hundred and ninety dollars per share

且有每股 190 美元的目標價格

over the next 12 months.

在未來的 12 個月裡

They just don't expect to see a pickup in iPhone sales.

他們只是沒有像其他人一樣

that many others had expected.

預測 iPhone 銷量會增加

According to UBS's is Stephen Milunovich,

根據瑞銀集團的 Stephen Mellon Ovitch：

"The stock narrative should from iPhone to cycles to iPhone annuity —

「股票分析應該要從 iPhone 的週期轉換到年度 —

How does Apple monetize the installed base through additional products and services?"

蘋果如何從安裝基本配備的附加產品、服務獲利？」

And that's the bottom line.

那就是最重要的事