Name: 歐元強勢，股市疲軟？| 短線觀點 (Strong euro, weak equities? | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:02:15.000Z
Duration: 1 min 48 s

Stronger Euro is bad for Eurozone equities, say strategists, and here's the proof.

策略師表示，歐元幣值強升對於歐元區是不好的，而證據在此

Emmanuel Macron wins the French election, clouds of political risk lift, and the Euro rises 7% on a trade-weighted basis.

埃瑪紐耶爾·馬克宏贏了法國的總統大選，政治危機雨過天青，且歐元在貿易加權的基礎上漲了 7%

Eurozone equities head south, and in July, eight consecutive months of upgrades to European earnings forecasts come to an end.

歐元區股市下跌，而且連續八個月呈上升狀態的歐洲市場盈利預期也在七月劃下了休止符

But there are also reasons to think that this adjustment will not last much longer.

但也有些原因使我們得以預測這樣調整並不會持續太久

Earnings, after all, are still set to rise this year,

and some effects of a stronger currency can be mitigated through hedging.

且幣值上升帶來的部分影響可藉由對沖買賣來緩和

A stronger Euro will reduce input costs, especially dollar-denominated ones like energy and commodities.

歐元幣值上升將導致投入成本減少，尤其是能源、日用品等美元計價的成本

That way, helping keep inflation down, and moderate pay demands from companies' workers.

這樣一來，便得以幫助減緩通貨膨脹，以及抑制來自公司員工的薪資要求

Meanwhile, the recovery in the Eurozone economy itself is gathering pace, and that is good for European companies.

同時，歐元區內的經濟復甦也慢慢上了軌道，而這對歐洲的企業是好的

It's one reason the currency is appreciating.

這也是目前的歐元升值的原因之一

In any case, the currency index is still well below its mid-noughties peaks,

無論如何，貨幣指數仍舊遠低於其 2000 - 2010 年間的高峰值

and look at this chart which shows the inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted exchange rate for the old Deutsche Mark.

並且看看這個表，它顯示出在依通貨膨脹調整過及貨幣加權基礎下的舊德國馬克匯率

You can see this in the mid 1970's and again in the mid 1990's,

你可以看到在 1970 年代中期及 1990 年代中期，

German exporters coped with the Mark at much higher levels than today's Euro equivalent.

德國的出口商當時兌換馬克的匯率比現今的歐元匯率高出許多

Finally, over the long term, Credit Suisse Research Institute points out that exchange rates make little real difference to overall returns.

最後，長期來看，瑞士信貸研究所指出匯率其實對於總體回報的影響不大

So while there may be reasons to worry about the durability of European corporate earnings, exchange rates are not foremost among them.

因此儘管有許多原因令人擔心歐洲企業盈利的持久性，匯率並非主要的原因之一

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歐元強勢，股市疲軟？| 短線觀點 (Strong euro, weak equities? | Short View)