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  • Post Carbon Institute presents

    後碳機構呈獻

  • The Ultimate Roller Coaster Ride

    終極的雲霄飛車之旅

  • An abbreviated history of fossil fuels

    石化燃料的簡史

  • It all started with a Big Bang.

    所有一切都始於大爆炸

  • Wait, we don't have to go back that far.

    等等 我們不需回溯至那麼遠

  • The Earth was formed 4.5 billion years ago.

    地球是在45億年前形成

  • No, still too far.

    不 這個時間點仍然太遠了

  • Try this: It's the Middle Ages.

    試試看這個: 中世紀

  • People in Britain run out of firewood

    英國人耗盡了生火木材

  • and start burning coal, but they use up the coal on the ground.

    並開始燃燒煤炭 但他們用光了平地上的煤

  • Miners dig deep. Coal mines fill with water.

    於是礦工往深處挖掘 煤礦裡充滿了水

  • Samuel Newcomen invents a coal-burning steam engine

    托瑪斯·紐科門發明一種燃煤的蒸汽引擎

  • to pump out water so miners can keep digging.

    把水抽出去 好讓礦工們能夠繼續挖礦

  • .

    .

  • James Watt makes it practical for other uses.

    詹姆斯·瓦特把此引擎改進 用於其它用途

  • Now we have ingredients for the Industrial Revolution

    於是就有了工業革命的誕生條件

  • fossil fuels and a way to put them to work.

    即石化燃料與有效利用的方式

  • All hell breaks loose.

    此時天下開始大亂了

  • Coal miners bog down lugging coal. Rails make it easier.

    礦工們陷入使勁挖礦的泥沼 但鐵路使事情變簡單些

  • .

    .

  • Rails and steam engine combined make a railroad.

    鐵軌和蒸汽引擎的結合造就了鐵路

  • Michael Faraday makes the first electric motor.

    麥可·法拉第製造了第一個電動馬達

  • Nicola Tesla invents alternating current.

    尼古拉·特斯拉發明了交流電

  • Soon, utility companies start burning coal to generate electricity.

    很快地 公共企業開始燃燒煤以產生電力

  • Meanwhile, Edwin Drake drills the first Rock Oil well in Pennsylvania.

    同時 埃德溫·德雷克在賓夕法尼亞州開鑿了第一個石油井

  • and Carl Daimler builds an automobile running on petroleum.

    然後卡爾·本茨和戈特裡布·戴姆勒 建造了靠石油運作的汽車

  • Coal tar and oil are turned into industrial chemicals

    煤焦油和石油變成工業的化學材料

  • and pharmaceuticals that prolong life. More population growth.

    而藥物延長人的壽命 人口增長更多了

  • The Wright brothers start oil fueled aviation.

    萊特兄弟開始以油為燃料的飛行嘗試

  • Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch make fertilizer from fossil fuels.

    弗裡茨·哈伯和卡爾·博施從石化燃料中製造肥料

  • Fertilizer and oil powered tractors

    肥料和石油驅動的拖拉機

  • expand food production, feeding more people.

    擴大了食物的產量 養活更多人

  • World War I is the first fossil fueled conflict.

    第一次世界大戰 是第一個使用石化燃料的衝突

  • Then comes World War II, giving us guided missiles and atom bombs.

    接著第二次世界大戰 更帶來了導彈和原子彈

  • In between is a great depression partly caused by overproduction.

    在兩次戰爭期間的大蕭條 部份原因是由於生產過剩

  • Powered assembly lines make products faster than people need them.

    由電力驅動的生產線 製造產品的速度比人們所需還快

  • Advertising executives invent consumerism to soak up overproduction.

    廣告主管們創造了消費主義來吸收過剩的生產

  • It's the 1950's.

    這是1950年代

  • Advertisers use television to hook new generations of consumers.

    廣告商利用電視來引誘新一代的消費者

  • In the 70's there's an oil shock.

    在70年代有一個石油危機

  • Everyone's shocked to realize how dependent they are on oil.

    每個人都嚇壞了 並意識到他們是多麼依賴石油

  • With the energy crisis, the environmental movement is born.

    隨著能源危機的發生 環保運動誕生了

  • But oil prices fall and everyone forgets energy shortages.

    但油價下降 然後每個人又忘了能源的短缺

  • There's a showdown between market and planned economies.

    在市場和計劃經濟之間有一個最終決戰

  • Market wins. Goodbye evil Soviet Empire.

    市場贏了 邪惡的蘇聯帝國掰了

  • Politicians decide the market will solve everything.

    政客們相信市場將會解決一切問題

  • Personal computers arrive.

    個人電腦出現了

  • Globalization takes over when the market notices

    當市場意識到時 全球化已接管了世界

  • labor is cheaper in China.

    在中國的勞動力較便宜

  • Suddenly everyone has a cell phone. But world oil production stalls out.

    突然間 人人都擁有手機 但世界的石油生產減緩

  • China's now burning half the world's coal to make export products.

    中國現在燃燒世界上一半的煤 用以製造出口產品

  • But where will China get more coal and oil to fuel more growth?

    但中國將能得到更多的煤和石油 以刺激更多成長嗎?

  • Environmental problems everywhere!

    環境問題到處都是!

  • Rising CO2-levels lead to record heat waves,

    上升的二氧化碳含量 導致了破記錄的熱浪

  • floods, droughts. Oceans acidify.

    洪水 乾旱 海洋酸化

  • Top soil erodes by 25 billion tons a year from industrial agriculture.

    由於產業化的農業 導致地表土壤每年被腐蝕250億噸

  • Ancient forests disappear.

    古老的森林消失了

  • Species go extinct at a thousand times normal rates.

    物種以快於正常速率的一千倍滅絕

  • Fresh water's scarce or polluted.

    可用淡水變得稀少或受污染

  • Oil companies drill in miles of sea water because the easy oil is gone.

    石油公司在海底數英里以下開挖 因為石油不再容易開採

  • But a deep water oil platform explodes and fouls the Gulf of Mexico.

    然而深海的鑽油平台發生爆炸 把墨西哥灣搞糟了

  • Manufacturing moves to polluting countries where labor is cheap

    製造業搬到勞動力廉價的國家 進而製造污染

  • while the US becomes a casino.

    美國變成了賭場

  • The financial sector is forty percent of the economy!

    金融部門佔了經濟成長的40%!

  • But Wall Street is over-leveraged.

    華爾街過度槓桿操作化

  • Banks fail. Unemployment soars. Credit evaporates!

    銀行失靈 失業率飆升 信用蒸發!

  • The economy is on the verge of collapse!

    經濟處於崩潰的邊緣!

  • Ok, present time. It's amazing how far we've come

    好吧 回到現在 令人驚訝的是 我們在兩百年間

  • in two hundred years. Just three human lifetimes

    走了多遠 從工業主義開始到現在的

  • from the beginning of industrialism until now.

    三個人類主要階段

  • But where are we headed?

    可是我們要去往何處?

  • We can't keep doubling human population.

    我們不能繼續讓人口倍增

  • We can't keep dumping carbon in the atmosphere.

    我們不能繼續釋放大氣中的碳

  • We can't keep ruining top soil.

    我們不能繼續毀壞表土

  • We can't keep growing population and consumption

    我們不能繼續增加人口和消費

  • or basing our economy on depleting fossil fuels.

    或把經濟奠基於耗盡石化燃料

  • We can't just print more money to solve the debt crisis.

    我們不能靠印更多的錢來解決債務危機

  • It's been an exhilarating ride but there are limits.

    這一直以來都是讓人興奮的旅途 但有極限

  • No, it's not the end of the world but we have to do four things fast.

    不 這不是世界末日 但我們必須立刻做四件事

  • Learn to live without fossil fuels.

    1.學習如何不靠石化燃料過活

  • Adapt to the end of economic growth as we've known it.

    2.適應我們所謂"經濟增長"的終結

  • Support seven billion humans and

    3.以永續的水平養活70億人

  • stabilize population at a sustainable level,

    並保持人口穩定

  • and deal with our legacy of environmental destruction.

    4.處理環境破壞的爛攤子

  • In short, we have to live within nature's budget

    簡言之 我們必須在自然中量力而為

  • of renewable resources at rates of natural replenishment.

    靠著可再生能源的自然回復速率

  • Can we do it?

    我們能做到嗎?

  • We have no choice!

    我們別無選擇了!

  • Alternative energy sources are important

    替代能源的來源是重要的

  • but none can fully replace fossil fuels in the time we have.

    但目前沒有一種能完全取代石化燃料的能源

  • Also, we've designed and built our infrastructure

    同樣 我們設計並建造了基礎設施

  • for transport, electricity and farming to suit oil, coal and gas.

    比如交通 電力 農業 以適用石油 煤 瓦斯

  • Changing to different energy sources will require us to

    為了適應使用不同的能源 我們必須

  • redesign cities, manufacturing processes, health care and more.

    重新設計城市 製造流程 醫療保健等

  • We'll also have to rethink some of our cultural values.

    我們也必須重新思考一些文化價值觀

  • None of our global problems can be tackled in isolation

    全球性問題沒有一個能夠單獨解決

  • and many cannot be fully solved.

    而且許多不能完全解決

  • We have to prepare for business as unusual.

    我們必須要準備面對不同以往的狀況

  • Our best goal is resilience,

    最高目標是有彈性

  • the ability to absorb shocks and keep going.

    能吸收衝擊的能力 並繼續走下去

  • If we do nothing, we still get to a post-carbon future

    如果我們什麼都不做 我們仍然會面對後碳未來

  • but it will be bleak.

    但情景將會淒慘無比

  • However, if we plan the transition,

    然而 如果我們有過渡計劃

  • we can have a world that supports

    我們的世界就可以支撐

  • robust communities of healthy, creative people

    健康且具有創造力的社群

  • and ecosystems with millions of other species.

    以及包含無數其它物種的生態系統

  • One way or the other, we're in for the ride of a lifetime.

    不論如何 我們已在生命旅程之中

  • Understand the issues and pitch in.

    要瞭解並參與解決問題

  • It's all hands on deck.

    所有人都在同一艘船上

  • Post Carbon Institute - www.postcarbon.org

    後碳機構

  • Narrated by: Richard Heinberg

    旁白: 理查·海因伯格

  • Illustrated by: Monstro - www.monstrodesign.com

    插畫: "怪物公司"

Post Carbon Institute presents

後碳機構呈獻

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