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  • We live in an amazingly uncertain world.  What’s going to happen with Europe?  What’s going

    我們生活在一個驚人的不確定的世界裡。 歐洲會發生什麼? 會發生什麼?

  • to happen with our economy?  What’s going to happen with sales the next six months?

    我們的經濟會發生什麼? 未來半年的銷售情況會怎樣?

  •  Will China be strong?  Will you be strong?  What'll happen with housing? The problem

    中國會強大嗎? 你會強大嗎? 房產會怎麼樣?問題是

  • with the uncertainty is it keeps you frozen.  It doesn't let you move forward.  It doesn't

    與不確定性是它讓你凍結。 它不會讓你前進。 它不

  • give you any confidence.  So in an uncertain world, I have to ask myself, “What am I

    給你任何信心。 所以在一個不確定的世界裡,我必須問自己:"我是什麼?

  • certain about?  Am I certain of nothing?”

    確定什麼? 我什麼都不確定嗎?"

  • And the answer is you can be certain about so much, it’s unbelievable.  For example,

    而答案是,你可以確定的東西太多,令人難以置信。 比如說:

  • right now it’s winter.  I’m certain it'll be spring followed by summer.  By the way,

    現在是冬天。 我確定它'會是春天,然後是夏天。 對了

  • I had that certainty because there is a science of cycles; there’s over 300 known cycles

    我之所以有這種把握,是因為有一門週期的科學,已知的週期有300多個。

  • - weather cycles, business cycles, biological cycles, that give you a complete handle and

    - 天氣週期、商業週期、生物週期,讓你全面掌握並

  • accurate forecast of the future.

    對未來的準確預測。

  • As a matter of fact economists have been trained in the science of cycles.  But if you noticed

    事實上,經濟學家一直在接受週期科學的訓練。 但如果你注意到

  • the economists have been really wrong lately.  Why have they been so wrong?  Theyre

    經濟學家們最近真的錯了。 為什麼他們會錯得這麼離譜? 他們

  • using the science of cycles.  After all, Warren Buffett is the richest guy in the world

    利用科學的週期。 畢竟,巴菲特是世界上最富有的人。

  • because of the science of cycles.  He knows when the stock market goes up; he’s going

    因為週期的科學。 他知道股市什麼時候漲,他就什麼時候漲。

  • to sell and when it goes down he’s going to buy, which is probably the opposite of

    賣出,而當它下跌時,他要買入,這可能是相反的。

  • most other people.  That’s why he’s rich.

    其他大多數人。 這就是為什麼他有錢。

  • So, is there another kind of change, you have to ask yourself.  And the answer is yes.

    那麼,有沒有另一種改變,你要問自己。 而答案是肯定的。

  •  And I call it linear change.  Unlike cyclical change, when linear change hits were not

    而我把它叫做線性變化。 與週期性變化不同的是,當線性變化來臨的時候,我們並不... ...

  • going back. Once you got a smartphone, you're not going back to a dumb phone.  Once the

    回去。一旦你有了智能手機,你'就不會再回到啞巴手機了。 一旦

  • people in China parked their bicycle and get a car, they're not going to say, gee, lets

    在中國,人們停放他們的自行車,並得到一個汽車,他們'不會說,哎呀,讓我們。

  • get rid of the car and go back to the bike.  Once people in India get refrigeration for

    擺脫汽車,回到自行車上。 一旦人們在印度得到製冷的

  • their homes, theyre not going to say we don’t need refrigeration.  Now these are

    他們的家,他們不會說 我們不需要製冷。 現在這些是

  • one way - theyre not cycles - one-way linear changes that had profound and amazingly predictable

    單向的--它們不是週期性的--單向的線性變化,有深遠的、驚人的可預見性的

  • consequences.

    後果。

  • So in a world of uncertainty, I have to ask am I certain of anything and create a list

    所以在這個充滿不確定性的世界裡,我必須問我是否有把握,並建立一個清單。

  • of certainty.  The reason is because strategy based on uncertainty has high risk.  Strategy

    的確定性。 因為基於不確定性的戰略具有高風險。 戰略

  • based on certainty has low risk and high reward.  So we are bombarded with all of this uncertainty.

    基於確定性的低風險高回報。 所以,我們被這些不確定性所轟炸。

  •  Create a list of things that you can be absolutely certain about.  Lets give you

    創建一個你可以絕對確定的事情清單。 讓我們給你

  • a technological certainty as a good example.  Let’s take the iPhone.  How about the

    一個技術上的必然性作為一個很好的例子。 就拿iPhone來說吧。 怎麼樣?

  • next iPhone?  I know we just got our new one but what about the next one?  Could you

    下一部iPhone? 我知道我們剛買了新機,但下一部呢? 你能

  • say anything about that?  Do you know anything about that?  Hey, no one’s left that in

    說什麼呢? 你知道什麼嗎? 嘿,沒有人離開,在

  • the bar lately.

    吧最近。

  • And the answer is, you know all about the next iPhone.  For example, will it have a

    而答案是,你對下一款iPhone都知道。 比如,它會不會有一個

  • faster processing chip in it than the current one?  And the answer is of course it will.

    裡面的處理芯片比現在的更快? 答案是當然會。

  •  Are you certain?  Yeah, been doing that with technology for 40 years; it’s call

    你確定嗎? 是的,40年來一直在做這個技術,這叫做

  • Moore’s law.  We have 3G wireless now; we're getting 4G wireless.  Is that it?  Or

    摩爾定律。 我們現在有了3G無線,我們'要用4G無線了。 是這樣嗎? 還是

  • might you be able to predict what theyll call the next one?  The answer is, of course;

    你是否可以預測他們會叫下一個什麼? 答案是,當然可以。

  • it'll be 5G, followed by 6G.  I’ve been tracking that out for over 30 years.

    它'會是5G,然後是6G。 我已經追蹤了30多年了。

  • It’s fully predictable on a curve.  You can just see it right there.  And can we

    它是完全可以預測的曲線。 你可以看到它就在那裡。 我們可以

  • get more in that device or is it full?  Can’t get anymore?  And the answer is of course,

    在該設備中得到更多還是滿了? 拿不到了嗎? 答案當然是。

  • we can store more in that device; it’s on a similar curve to Moore’s law going up

    我們可以在該設備中存儲更多的東西;它的曲線類似於摩爾定律的上升曲線。

  • like this.  Very predictable.  So if you look at all the things that you can be certain

    像這樣。 很有預見性。 所以,如果你看看所有的事情,你可以肯定的是

  • about, you will find amazing possibilities and amazing opportunities as you look at the

    左右,你會發現驚人的可能性和驚人的機會,因為你看的是

  • future.

    未來。

  • Spend an hour a week unplugging from the present.  Yeah, why?  Because it's more related to

    每週花一個小時的時間從現在的生活中解脫出來。 是啊,為什麼? 因為它更關係到

  • your past than your future.  You know there's a reason your windshield is bigger than your

    你的過去比你的未來。 你知道你的擋風玻璃比你的大是有原因的。

  • rearview mirror.  Hey, let's start looking ahead a little bit.  The more you look, the

    後視鏡。 嘿,讓我們開始向前看一點。 你看的越多

  • more you see.  The future is more visible than you might expect.  Make a list, not

    你看到的更多。 未來比你想象的更可見。 列一個清單,而不是

  • of the things youre uncertain about, but the things you are certain about.  First

    的事情,但你確定的事情。 首先

  • of all, the cycles.  What are the cycles that we know?  What are the cycles, the sales

    的週期。 我們知道的週期是什麼? 什麼是週期,銷售

  • cycles, the business cycles.

    週期,商業週期。

  • By the way if there’s a sales cycle, hint don’t abide by it.  I always go the opposite

    對了如果有銷售週期,提示不要遵守。 我總是反其道而行之

  • of the sale cycle because I want to have the deal closed before the cycle begins, but that

    因為我想在週期開始前就完成交易,但這也是我的目標。

  • just me.  Anyway take a look at the cycles.  Make a list of those things.  We know when

    只是我。 總之看一下週期。 把這些東西列出來。 我們知道,當

  • Father’s Day will be, we know when Christmas will be, we know when the next election will

    我們知道父親節是什麼時候,我們知道聖誕節是什麼時候,我們知道下一次選舉是什麼時候。

  • be.  Makes list of all the things that you know and look at the problems and predictable

    是。 把所有你知道的事情列出來,看看問題和可預見的。

  • opportunities.

    機會。

  • Secondly, look at the certainties of linear changes.  What are those major linear changes

    第二,看線性變化的確定性。 那些重大的線性變化是什麼

  • that are taking place right now?  And make sure you notice them and pay attention to

    正在發生的事情? 並確保你注意到他們,並注意到。

  • them.  For example, your main computer is becoming what?  It’s your smartphone.  And

    他們。 例如,你的主電腦正在變成什麼? 是你的智能手機。 而且

  • just recently the Chinese have been able to make a smartphone at the same cost as a dumb

    最近,中國人已經能夠製造出一款成本與啞巴一樣的智能手機了

  • phone.  Why would you want to make dumb phones, when a smart phone is Internet, it’s a camera,

    的手機。 為什麼要做啞巴手機,智能手機就是互聯網,就是攝像頭。

  • it’s photography, it’s television, it’s radio?  These are profound linear changes.

    是攝影,是電視,是廣播? 這些都是深刻的線性變化。

  •  Make a list and then look for opportunities and put your business strategy against those

    列出一個清單,然後尋找機會,並將你的商業戰略與這些機會進行對接

  • certainty lists and youll find low risk and high reward.

    確定名單,你會發現低風險高回報。

We live in an amazingly uncertain world.  What’s going to happen with Europe?  What’s going

我們生活在一個驚人的不確定的世界裡。 歐洲會發生什麼? 會發生什麼?

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