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We are in a race. The race is against
time. We have to build cities. We need
them, but we have to make them in a
different way. We need a wave of
innovation, not only for our way of life,
but also the planet. The consequences
would be enormous if we lose this battle.
I'm Thomas Goetz, executive editor at
Wired magazine. At Wired, we look at the
innovators and innovations that are changing
our world. In the next hour we'll see
three stories from acclaimed film makers
about the future of energy. We'll explore
cutting-edge innovations in how we drive,
how we live, and in our first story, how
we fuel our cars. They're all ideas
that promise to shape the path to the
world of 2050. The world has right
now close to a billion cars, and we will by
double the number of cars of the planet
by 2050, so we doubled our vehicles, we
really increase the amount of fuel they
consume, and that's gonna have a big big
footprint in terms of our demand for
resources to move all those vehicles
around. We're pulling up carbon that has been
stored underground and burning in our
automobiles and putting all that carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere. If we don't
reduce that, it could have changes in the
climate that we could never recover from.
There's a number of forecasts for what
type of transportation economy we could
move into. One vision is that we will use
more and more liquid fuels. Another one
is we'll use more electricity. Right now,
more of the industrial activity is
focused around liquid biofuels. The thing
about the fuel is it's really
unparalleled on a weight basis how much
energy is in a gallon of fuel, and even
if batteries develop as some of the
advocates hope they develop, we're not
going to see batteries running large
trucks, and we're certainly not going to
see an electrified airplane.
We're going to need transportation fuels
for those that will directly replace the
petroleum-based fuels that we're using
today. This is kicked-off people looking
at a whole range of other alternatives to
petroleum in your tank.
Commercial production of ethanol as fuel
started in Brazilian 1975. When we
started the ethanol program, nobody
talking about reducing emissions. This
was not an issue at that time.
First and most important, we didn't have
money to buy oil anymore after the first
oil shock. We were importers of oil. And
today more than fifty percent of all
cars use ethanol set of gasoline. Brazil
made a very conscious choice to try to
find a way to reduce their fossil fuel
dependence and they didn't have to look
very far because Brazil's climate is
ideal for growing sugarcane. When you
have sugar cane plantation, you have only
two things to make: sugar, ethanol. My
family has been in sugarcane business
since 1955, and about 50
years ago, I thought there is
opportunity to make more ethanol. Now, we
are producing 120 thousand cubic meters
of the ethanol. Brazil today has very
close to 400 sugar mills. The overall
sales is thirty billion US dollars. And this
number is increasing.
If you look at how they make ethanol and
how efficient the process is, it's
really a model for all of us.
They grind the plant up. Extract the
sugar from the cane. The sugar goes into
these large fermentation tanks which
combines sugars together with yeast that
naturally produces ethanol. They use the
rest of the cane to generate heat to
distill the ethanol and turned into fuel.
They also use that heat generate
electricity renewably, not putting excess
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Brazil has got to a point today where
they're using about forty percent less
petroleum then they would be otherwise.
But Brazil cannot supply the whole world
of ethanol because they would have to
cut very strongly in the food production and
into critical natural areas like the
Amazon to make that happen. And this
really boils down to the fact there's
only so much arable land and growing
fuel for our gas tanks is yet another
demand on that landscape. We cannot get
ourselves into thinking that we found a
general solution for the world problem.
I think, we will have to face the world
in this way today, we have no oil and very
large plenty of this anymore.
We have no coal transform in the clean way.
In the meantime, we have to do the best we can.
The best at the moment is that they can
do biofuels. Sugarcane ethanol is an
incredibly efficient process, you get out
about seven times the energy you put
into growing the sugarcane. In the US,
when we produce ethanol from corn, for
every unit of input of energy we get
about the same amount of energy out,
so we're really not gaining anything. We
need a better process, we don't have to
take what nature has given us, we can
actually engineer plants and yeast to be
more efficient and that's the basis for
a lot of the work that we're doing now. What
we need to look at though is which of
the pathways that come out of this are
not only good financially, but those that
are also good news sustainability, and
this equation is is really wide open right now.
We are in a race to develop
fuels. The race isn't with other
countries the race is against time.
To meet their mediate and future demands,
we made the energy solution spring from the ground.
Brazilian sugar cane is currently the lowest cost, lowest-carbon fuel in the world available in commercial volumes.
Brazil is the most efficient ethanol
producing country in the world.
Sugarcane alcohol from Brazil can reduce
the total carbon footprint right up to
seventy percent compared with the gasoline.
The biggest challenge for field
providers and car manufacturers is to
reduce CO2 emissions over the next 20
years. Demand for mobility will continue
to grow. We believe that biofuels are
very important because they help in
immediate way. All forms of fuels are
going to be needed, hydrocarbons, natural
gas, biofuels, all of them are going to be
part of the energy means for the future of transportation.
Brazil has been very successful at
taking a resource they had and finding
the process to make that into ethanol.
And people call those first-generation
biofuels. We have lots of lab work around
the world that are looking at the second
generation that's generally turning
cellulosic material from, for example, weeds
into biofuels. And United States is
very much at the forefront of the
innovation park equation. For centuries,
we have been using yeast to consume
glucose and produce wine and beer.
We're trying to do something very
similar, only where engineering the yeast
to consume that glucose and turn it into
a fuel or a drug or a chemical. We call this
synthetic biology. And when I started in
this area, many of my colleagues said, "Oh, Jay,
this is great work, but where's the
application? What are you gonna do with
these tools? Who cares?"
Malaria is an enormous problem. In any
one year, a million or so people die of
the disease, and most of them are
children under the age of five. So, we
thought this was a great opportunity to
engineer yeast to produce an
antimalarial drug called Artemisinin. This
drug is derived from plants right now,
but it's too expensive for people in the
developing world. So, my laboratory
engineered yeast to produce small
quantities of Artemisinin. Now, that
process is being scaled up and we'll
have this drug on the market shortly, but
at a substantially reduced cost.
It turns out that antimalarial drug is
a hydrocarbon and it's very similar in
many ways to diesel fuel.
We thought, "Gosh, we can turn our
attention now to fuels. We could make a
few changes in that microbe to turn it
into a fuel producing microbe." If we
imagine that glucose is going to be our
new petroleum, we need a source for that
glucose, and so the crops that we're
looking at are crops like switchgrass.
This is a native grass that grows
without a lot of water and our marginal
lands, we could turn it into energy farms.
The challenge though is that unlike
sugar cane, it is very difficult to get the
sugar out of that biomass. So we use what
we call pretreatment process to extract
the glucose from the plant and then we
feed that glucose to a yeast that we've
engineered to produce hydrocarbons and
that yeast takes in the sugar and it
changes its composition that gives us
this high energy molecule. They float to the
top. You skim them off. You put them in
your tank.
But it takes a lot of work to get from
that small test tube all the way up into
the million gallon tank, so we have to
give it time, but i think that some of
the discoveries that are happening might
be applied by the end of the decade.
In terms of a sustainable equation for the
planet, raw biofuels is quite tricky.
There are a variety of crops that do not
compete directly with food and finding
ways to utilize those types of crops
first that's very attractive, so solving
the science is part of the story, but
then evaluating all of the new fuels
in terms of the land use impacts that they
could have, that is even harder story than doing the good science.
Imagine that you could have one process
that could take in sunlight and carbon
dioxide and turn it into fuel. And
imagine if that didn't involve growing
anything at all. The synthetic biologists
are trying to take plants and make them
do things that they wouldn't normally do.
On the other hand, materials chemists,
like myself, want to do artificial
photosynthesis to improve on the process
that nature does in real photosynthesis.
We should follow the blueprint of plants
converting sunlight into fuel, but take
the approach that it could be much
simpler. All we really need is a light
absorber that absorbs sunlight. We also
need a catalyst, like iron or nickel. So
when you see the hydrogen coming off of
a photoactive material, that's an example
of a semiconductor breaking the chemical
bonds of water make hydrogen and oxygen.
Ultimately our pieces are going to be
contained in something that is easy to
roll out, like bubble wrap or in would
come sunlight and water. You would vent
the oxygen to the air but the bottom
would wick out your liquid or gaseous
fuel but then you could collect and use for
our cars and planes and storage.
Our goal is within two years, to have
the first artificial photosynthesis
solar fuels generator that we can hold
in our hands, and then get to scale
beyond that time. We're certainly not
good at predicting the future, but
electric vehicles looks like a
sustainable option. We've heard proposals
about things as far fetch as nuclear power
planes and even some proposals to move freight
around with lighter-than-air vehicles
and so if the future in 2050 does include a
fair amount of oil
what it means would be that we haven't
deployed as many of these clean
technologies as we already know where
possible. If you think about how long
it's taken for us to build up the
petroleum industry, we can't hope to
reverse that overnight. It's huge change
in our infrastructure.
Yes, we should have been working on it 30
years ago, we didn't. We're trying to make
up for that and that means basic
research needs to be done now and by as
many people as possible. We have a long
way to go but i'm confident that we'll
get there.
In the future, 3D maps are going to help
people get places more efficiently.
As we just saw the race to produce
cleaner energy is charging ahead in the
meantime demand for cars continues
decline by 2050 its predicted they'll be
2 billion cars on the planet and fuel
consumption will have tripled to keep
pace left to radically change the way we
drive
Here's our next story driven by design
the automobile bill came around in many ways
it was the future we thought of it as
one of the more positive changes that
happened to society suddenly our ability
to get a job changed we can be further
away with bigger plots of land with
better quality of living it all looked
quite good but there are limitations to
swearing by the car if it gets congested
your quality of life drops immediately
to spend so long in the car
it's very inefficient use of fuel
consumption things start making sense
all the sudden doesn't bring you closer
to where you want to get it actually
sometimes bring your father the average
american spends nearly 300 hours a year
in their car 38 of them stuck in traffic
annually congestion consumes over 1
billion dollars in gasoline in the
the inefficiency caused by traffic both
financial and personal is enormous
Dirk sheen and Carmen white story is not
that unusual today
Dirk works an hour and a half away in
Warren go Lllinois generally he wouldn't
leave work until six or 630 and i would
say usual time for him to get home
around eight
usually when I wake up on the only one
up sometimes the kids wake up with my
routine more often than that I don't see
them in the morning I think about my
commute when I wake up I check the
traffic report see if there's any delays
the worst-case scenario it takes me two
hours to get to work
we are already so limited in the amount
of time you can spend with the kids and
our expenses are crazy-high you're
spending 400 bucks a month on gas
It takes away from our food budget and we
never paid for gas like that before, ever
There's technology that would allow me
to spend less time in the car
spend less money on gas and spend more
time at home I'd be all for that
The cost of traffic is people's time
fuel wasted
it's an emotional toll of frustration
Utilizing the roads more intelligently
is a much more efficient approach to the
inability to have supplied keep up with
traffic demand
If you took a satellite picture of the
highway you can see that there's
actually a lot of open space and if we
had the technology for cars to drive
more closely but safely then you can
increase the utilization of the road
What this means is that to be more
efficient to use less fuel we need to
see the road differently
We need cars that can navigate through the urban
landscape in a radically different way
maps in the future are going to be able
to help people get places either more
safely or more efficiently. Today just
helps you get from point A to point B
but what if i want to get someplace and
use the least amount of fuel possible or
if I've got a hybrid vehicle I want to
make sure I've got plenty of charge not
only get there but to get back home so
information that is going to help people
achieve the more efficient or the safer
route is more detailed information about
the road than a lot of people realize as
possible to collect today here in
Chicago Nokia's location & commerce is
developing the next generation of mapping
Llidar sona, 360-degree video
All are components of what Nokia calls
digital mapping
we use 64 lasers that rotate and they
collect data in a 3D way about the world
that creates what we call a point cloud
of information that point cloud allows
us to measure distances than between the
points that we collect that system
combined with the cameras with higher
precision location detection through
inertial measurement units that whole
data system allows us to collect 1.3
million points of data per second
probably within two to three years
you're going to see 3d maps that are
going to integrate the traffic
information into your routing help you
understand i've got five different
routes to take which one is the most
efficient today given way to stoplights
are running giving away traffic is
running all of those factors are going
to be taken into consideration to make
sure I've got the best route but better
mapping that can integrate topography
infrastructure and density is only part
of the answer another key to improving
transport efficiency is building cars
that drive themselves autonomous vehicle
technology has tremendous potential to
improve efficiency of a road
infrastructure by removing humans from
the equation we eliminate all the things
we do wrong time will be speeding
changing lanes too often merging
haphazardly
and by marrying autonomous vehicles with
sophisticated 3d maps we can make
driving safer and more energy-efficient
that next generation vehicle is being
built right now by the swedish trucking
scania
the solution is to see it is that the
vehicles too can utilize intelligent
maps three-dimensional maps with traffic
information the vehicles will be
intelligent and communicate with each
other they will talk to each other they
will talk to the infrastructure and
we'll see completely autonomous driven
the goal was to have multiple robots and
see if they could go 60 miles fully autonomously
my name is helen taylor my husband John
and I were very passionate about fuel economy
yeah it's great to break world records
but that's not the order and all them
it's more important to educate people
together with showing drivers around the
world simple techniques to improve their
fuel efficiency from these education
programs get people on the road with us
and we finally tweak their driving
techniques things like just checking the
higher pressures before you even getting
to car for everyone psiu tires are
under-inflated be wasting three percent
of the fuel efficiency and the
difference between 65 and 75 miles
prayer is a saving of 23% when you talk
to the general public
they're very surprised that an energy
company like shell is trying to educate
people how to save money how to reduce
co2 emissions and here we have shell
sending us around the world to do that
we always hope when you on this planet
but you can make a real difference in
people's lives when you get emails from
people saying save this amount of money
this year looking for food on the table
when you know you are really making a
difference
by displaying traffic density in the
urban infrastructure in a revolutionary
way 3d digital maps will help create a
more fuel-efficient future but these
technologies are limited by the drivers
who sit behind the wheel
some believe that for cars and trucks to
be truly energy-efficient they will need
to drive themselves the technology is
coming into play through sensors and
capabilities for cars to drive
autonomously in 2007 the united states
department of defense held a competition
to see if a completely autonomous
self-driving vehicle as possible
DARPA stands for the defense advanced
research projects agency they have a
competition to develop self-driving
robots that could drive themselves in traffic
the goal was to have multiple robots
turn them loose on a course and see if
they could go 60 miles in six hours
fully autonomously driving maybe one of
the most complex things we do everyday
drivers make dozens of decisions at any given moment
one study found that drivers were
exposed over 1,300 items of information
per minute we make so many decisions
when we're driving without even thinking about it
so in creating our vehicle a great
component the enterprise was developing
software to handle lots of sensors
feeding lots of data and generating a
bunch of potential paths that the
vehicle might follow and even though the
robot doesn't have the ability to
predict the future by using this fast
random path generation the robot could
anticipate potential accident and choose
a path to avoid it because it's always
thinking about what things could the car do next
no one expects millions of cars driving
themselves anytime soon
but there is a place where
self navigating technologies are being
optimized to create the vehicle of the
future be honest kanya test track
outside Stockholm where we have
basically looks like in highway but it's
a separate test track when conducting experiments
scania the Swedish trucking company has
recently begun testing its next
generation of long-haul truck utilizing
radar sonar and intelligent mapping
they've been able to drastically reduce
fuel consumption
we have this example with platooning
where we make use of the reproduction in
air resistance or a drug that you get
from driving close to each other with
heavy-duty vehicles and in order to
control this you need to know where the
other vehicles are where they're
positioned the velocity their actions in
the near future to be very close to the
vehicle ahead of you that requires that
you have very accurate control if you
look at robotics broadly there's
wonderful set of research and people
looking at schooling fish and and and
trying to develop the ability for robots
to work together like that so they're
wonderful examples from nature of how
cooperation can lead to more efficient
resource utilization you can see it when
people are competing into the france
they platoon to reduce air drag they are
not bicycling behind each other that
close because its father or because they
are racing it is because they are
reducing air drag sitting behind the man
who is leading a truck traveling 55
miles per hour expense half its energy
just to move the air around it at 65
miles per hour that number jumps to
almost two-thirds even if platooning can
reduce the energy used by ten percent
the savings would be substantial
if a vehicle in front of another vehicle
wants to break it immediately sends out
the break message to be other vehicles
so they actually break at the same time
the way we do this is by we have an
automated system so now for instance if
i take my feet off the acceleration
pedal and turn the system on the
velocity is automatically governed by
getting information from the vehicle
ahead through his wireless system we
want these vehicles to maintain a short
relative distance through this system we
can reduce the fuel consumption by
utilizing the Air drag reduction by ten
percent and ten percent would mean he
will be able to save approximately eight
thousand euros per single heavy-duty vehicle per year
it may be some time before autonomous
vehicles make up the majority of cars on
America's highways
nevertheless some of these technologies
are already making their way into our
lives now this polar baby wants to sleep
you get to pick up books every day or is
it just something I can put takeout look
sometimes ok when we look toward the
future systems will absolutely make it
safer and more efficient and less costly
for you and also make your life easier
because you're spending less time on the
roads the city begins to talk begins to
tell you where they're congestion what's
going on in different areas of town
suddenly the car becomes a part of a
much bigger ecosystem we can look at how
cars interact with other cars are car
interact with infrastructure and us the
drivers you start to make smart
decisions about how to move around
suddenly mobility becomes a whole other thing
no matter how much money they have no
matter how much oil they have everybody
has to go in a different direction
we've seen that changing the way we
drive can improve transportation
efficiencies what if we change the way
we build and live in our cities
that's the subject of our next story
searching for utopia will travel to the
United Arab Emirates and discover a city
rising out of the desert
let's take a look from the beginning we
dreamed of utopia a place where we could
live in harmony with each other and in
balance with nature
many have imagined it tried to design it
but the dream always slipped away
then I heard they were building a new
city called Masdar near abu dhabi in the Arabian desert
it sounded like an unlikely place for
you told you and I wanted to see it
the last half century has been a pretty
bad time for the making cities the
natural tendency has been to accommodate
to the automobile more than anything else
try walking around abu dhabi it's
impossible to obtain car everywhere
dubai the same thing they are among the
least pedestrian friendly places in the
world they are not bringing by any other
measure either and leaving that easy
things to fit master is still under
construction and it doesn't look like
much from the highway but they claim
it's going to redefine the way cities
are designed built and Power Master city
in abu dhabi will be the city of the
future and the role model for the world
once you see what they have envisioned
for this utopian city it's very impressive
its carbon neutral pedestrian-friendly
and powered by renewable energies but I
do notice we're going to have to change
our relationship with cars
welcome to muster city and in beacon to
medina just that we are driving and
they're in the bowels of mouse are set
in an electric transportation system
slightly unnerving to seeing this for
the first time and where we go in the
first big move the architects at foster
and partners made was to put all
transportation underneath the city
leaving the streets of Masdar totally
free of cars the place reminded me of a
medieval city and actually many design
elements are adapted from ancient Arabic
towns and villages it's all about
looking back into history to move
forward with some very very simple ideas
I have a huge impact this is the
pedestrian zone there's no cars here
this and this is enabled us to push the
streets together take the advantage of
shade channel the cooling breezes through
the whole scale here is based on the
human being is not based on the motorcar
soon as you lift up the potassium
playing by seven meters
you've certainly captured this breathe
what you can see here in the balconies
we've got a modern interpretation of an
ancient Arabic screen we must avoid is
direct sunlight hitting any piece of glance
soon as the Sun hits the glass the heat
transferred into the building and we
have to use more energy to cool it down
and this will make all that much of a difference
yeah absolutely for example Downton
Abbey 60 meter wide streets black
asphalt mirrored reflective buildings no
relief from the Sun holiday in September
the air temperature in both places was
39 t greens and I'm gonna be the
temperature measured at the asphalt was
57 degrees in master the temperature
measured on the ground 33 degrees so
we've actually lowered the air
temperature we're trying to do as much
as possible with as little as possible
these simple design moves cut air
conditioning needs by sixty percent but
this place is also technically very
sophisticated the roof panels not only
provide shade they also generate
electricity and the walls themselves are
made of glass reinforced concrete
literally sand taken from the desert
everything here is geared towards
maximizing energy efficiency
nazdar does represent a whole different
value system it represents an
acknowledgement that eventually
everybody has to go in a different kind
of Direction no matter how much money
they have no matter how much oil they
have no matter anything else all the
cities here in this part of the world
have come out of nowhere there was
nothing here not so long ago except
small settlements in the desert and then
all of the soil and all of his money and
suddenly you know wham the city started
popping up but they sprung up in a false
love of a Western model that was already
out of date the model of the late 20th
century automobile based energy hogging city
for most of the world energy is very expensive
but the united arab emirates is sitting
on ten percent of the world's oil and
energy is cheap sochi you can run a ski
slope in a shopping and build the
world's tallest skyscraper but even here
cheap energy won't last forever and the
people behind Masdar are determined to
find alternatives
one of the most crucial aspects of our
energy modeling and scenario
quantification is how much energy in
total is the world going to use in 2050
scenarios team is a bunch of people with
rich imagination i would say we have
political scientists economists
geopolitical experts really be tried to
simplify the complexity all around us we
in the seriously not currently putting a
lot of attention into cities and city development
a lot of mega cities are going to be
built in the coming decades
we're talking about the equivalent of a
new city of a million people every week
that is an incredible demand most of the
world's resources are consumed by the
city's but if we could offer a blueprint
for a better City public transportation
information energy we understand man
will rise we understand the current
supplies will struggle to keep pacing so
we have to of course find ways of
bridging the gap between the demand and
the supply decisions that we take now
are going to have a major impact on
decades to come
there's enough oil under these sands to
last a hundred and fifty years but
fundamental to the Masdar ideal is
getting energy from renewable sources
from geothermal and wind and most of all
from a source they have in abundance in
the desert the Sun
this field of solar panels makes more
than enough electricity to run master
and the excess power is sent to the abu dhabi grid
but silicon panels are expensive and the
price of solar power needs to drop if
it's going to be competitive from Africa to Asia to Arizona
in the future master hopes to get energy
from this prototype called the solar
beam down
using highly reflective mirrors the
solar beam down may generate power more
cheaply and ecologically than silicon panels
the mirrors bounce the sun's rays up to
the tower and then down to a point
reaching a temperature of 600 degrees
steam can be generated to run turbines
to make electricity
there's just one problem
neither of these solar technologies work
at night so master needs to draw power
from the grid when the Sun Goes Down and
that power comes from natural gas
the reality is it's just not yet
possible to power mast are entirely
without fossil fuels the great challenge
with Masdar will be how do you make it a
place that will not be just this ideal
city that no other place could actually
aspire to cause it doesn't seem real
what Masdar has to be is a laboratory that
develops things that then can be applied
in existing cities all around the world
because that's where it will pay off
there's no payoff if it's just about
itself the payoff is how can everything
it's trying to do matter in the rest of the world
right now there's only a store two
restaurants a bank and a few hundred
students living here it's too early to
tell if master will work as a city when
it's finished but much has been achieved
they are carbon neutral and largely
powered by renewable energies solutions
here won't work everywhere though many
cities are in cold climates and cooling
is not their energy problem they need to
let sunlight in not keep it out cities
like Los Angeles or houston are built
around cars can masters lessons be
applied to them
still it's a step in the right direction
and it's impressive that this step is
being taken by country that doesn't need
to take it i met a guy who said actually
they did need to take it he took me to
the desert to explain
God says widen the man at the ala
similarity well be with G Betty God
talks about man's place in in the
university that this world is a trust
and God offered this trust to the
mountains to the heavens
to the land to earth and all and all
refused to refuse to take this trust but
man being adventurous vain may be too
ambitious being manned accepted now
accepting it and there is a
responsibility
taking responsibility isn't always easy
utopia may be unattainable but we must
reach for it and master does give us a
clue to what cities will be like in the
future they may not look quite like mass
star but they will be shaped by the same
concerns by energy where it comes from
and how it's used
the way we've been building cities
lately is unsustainable
we can't go on building them that way
but to say that we can't build cities
the way we have been building them
doesn't mean we can't build cities in the future
in fact we have to build cities cities
are the essential statement of human
civilization so we will continue to make
them but we have to make them in a different way
what we've seen is that the world of
2050 won't look drastically different
from the world today but the challenges
of a growing population increased energy
demand real solutions its innovations
like those we've just seen that will be
critical and charting our path to the
world of 2050
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The World In 2050年 [The Real Future Of Earth] - Full BBC Documentary HD (The World In 2050 [The Real Future Of Earth] - Full BBC Documentary HD)

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jwlee 發佈於 2017 年 12 月 22 日    馮郁庭 翻譯    jenny 審核
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