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  • 2016 is almost over. Here on Wall Street.

    2016 年來到尾聲了,這裏是華爾街

  • Here is 2017 in a minute.

    歡迎收看 一分鐘看 2017

  • The bond market certainly appearses it's turning 2016,

    2016 的債券市場毫無疑問是個波折的一年

  • bond yields hit a bottom and started rising very dramatically.

    債券收益先是暴跌然後又大幅度反彈

  • Can we be sure that that trend will be relied on in 2017?

    我們是否能確定 2017 年也會如此呢?

  • Well first of all, take a look at inflation expectations,

    首先,讓我們來看看預期的通貨膨脹

  • yes, they certainly seemed to turn up with very significantly,

    沒錯,漲幅看起來十分地顯著

  • most obviously, in the States, but also in Germany and in Japan.

    美國的市場最為明顯,德國與日本也是

  • If that continues then it's difficult for bond yields to keep at their still remarkably low levels.

    如果這幅度持續下去,那麼債券收益將難以維持於它顯著的低水平

  • Second critical dimension is the behaviour of central banks.

    第二個關鍵是各地區央行的表現

  • Herewith see what the proportionate changes the three big central banks have made to their balance sheets over the last decade.

    這裡我們可以看到比例改變了三大央行,可看出三大央行十年來已達到資產負債表的目標

  • You can see that the federal reserve has now stopped trying to administer the new stimulus

    可以看到美國聯準會已終止嘗試注入新刺激

  • that's not true of either the bank of Japan or the ECB.

    但日本央行與歐洲中央銀行卻不是如此

  • The critical question is are they really going to stop or taper off their support for the bond markets.

    最關鍵的問題為央行是否真的會停止或是降低對債券市場的支持

  • If they don't it's still hard even now it'll be that bearish about bonds.

    若它們不再支持,仍會很困難,即使現在債券的行情下跌

  • That's the New York Minute.

    以上是一分鐘看紐約

2016 is almost over. Here on Wall Street.

2016 年來到尾聲了,這裏是華爾街

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