Here's the New York Minute.

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It's been an extremely positive day for stock markets across the world,

12/13 對全世界的股票市場來說是個非常樂觀的一天

the Dow Industrial is nearly at the 20,000 level,

道瓊工業指數幾乎達到 20,000 大關

and it's also been a good day for bond markets with bond yields falling,

對債券市場來說今天也是個不錯的一天，因為債券收益率不斷下降

which is all very intriguing, because as you can see from the two-year treasury yield, which is at its highest since 2010,

而這非常的有趣，因為你可以從目前是 2010 年以來最高點的兩年國債收益率看到

markets have completely braced for a rate hike from the Fed when the FMC beats tomorrow.

市場已經完全準備好面對聯準會的升息

The big question, as you can see from the Fed funds futures market

最重要的問題，如同你從聯準會基金期貨市場可以看到的

is what signals we get as to what will happen after that.

是我們會得到關於未來走向的什麼跡象

At the moment, we have a roughly one in three chance that there's only one rate hike next year,

現在看起來，有三分之一的機率明年只會有一次升息

but also a one in three chance that we get as many as three rate hikes next year.

但另外也有三分之一的機率是明年會有三次之多的升息

Listen to what Janet Yellen says about that.

可以去看珍妮特·葉倫怎麼說

But why the positivity?

但我們為什麼會認為整個市場環境是樂觀的呢？

Ultimately, even if people don't quite realize it,

即使人們沒有意識到

it's because of China.

但其實是因為中國

We take a look at the MSCI World Index, that covers all the main developed markets.

我們來看看 MSCI 世界指數，它涵蓋了所有主要的已發展國家市場

For companies that get most of their sales from China,

對那些大部分收益都來自中國的公司來說

you can see they've done it terribly for a long time,

你可以看到它們表現糟糕已久

but turned upwards earlier this year.

但在今年年初表現回春

Maybe we should be paying more attention to China than to Washington DC.

比起華盛頓特區，或許我們應該更加注意中國市場

And that's the New York Minute.

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