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  • The pyramid is a traditional way of visualising and explaining the age structure of a society.

    金字塔是一種傳統的可視化方式,也是解釋一個社會年齡結構的方法。

  • If you draw a chart with each age group represented by a bar, and each bar ranged one above the

    如果你畫了一張圖,每個年齡段用一根柱子代表,每根柱子的範圍是高於

  • otheryoungest at the bottom, oldest at the top, and with the sexes separatedyou

    輩分最小的,年齡最大的,男女分開的

  • get a simple shape.

    得到一個簡單的形狀。

  • In 1970 that shape was a pyramid because the largest segment of the global population was

    在1970年,這個形狀是一個金字塔,因為全球人口中最大的部分是。

  • the youngest (0-5 years old, comprising 14% of the total), followed by the next-youngest

    年齡最小(0-5歲,佔總數的14%),其次是年齡最小的。

  • (6-10, with 13%), and so on in regular increments until, above 85 years, there were so few people

    6-10人,佔13%),以此類推,定期遞增,直到85歲以上,人少得可憐為止

  • that the shape vanished into a point.

    形狀消失成一個點。

  • The pyramid was characteristic of human populations pretty much since the day organised societies emerged.

    從有組織社會出現的那天起,金字塔就是人類人口的特徵。

  • With lifespans short and mortality rates high, children were always the most numerous group,

    壽命短,死亡率高,兒童始終是最多的群體。

  • and old people the least. A population chart of England in 1700 looks likes a pyramid.

    和老人最少。1700年英國的人口圖看起來像個金字塔。

  • But now look at the chart of the global population in 2015. It looks more like the dome of the

    但現在看看2015年全球人口的圖表。它看起來更像穹頂的。

  • Capitol building in Washington, DC, than something along the Nile.

    華盛頓特區的國會大廈,比尼羅河沿岸的東西。

  • Young children are still the largest group, but now make up only 10% of the population

    幼兒仍然是最大的群體,但現在只佔人口的10%。

  • and those above them are almost as big, with 9.5%

    和上面的幾乎一樣大,有9.

  • The angle of the slope changes most markedly after about age 40.

    大約在40歲以後,斜坡的角度變化最為明顯。

  • In 1970 the youngest had not only been the largest but also the fastest-growing section

    在1970年,最年輕的部分不僅規模最大,而且增長速度最快

  • of the population. But between 1970 and 2015, the population aged 0-19 grew by only 42%,

    的人口。但在1970年至2015年間,0-19歲的人口只增長了42%。

  • whereas the population aged 20-39 rose by 128%.

    而20-39歲的人口則增加了128%。

  • This group added almost twice as many people to the overall numbers than the group aged

    這個群體在總人數中的新增人數幾乎是年齡較大群體的兩倍。

  • below 20.

    20以下。

  • There are now also over 50m people above 85, so the dome of 2015 has a spike.

    現在85歲以上的人也有50多萬,所以2015年的穹頂有一個高峰。

  • In 1970-2015 the dominating influence upon the global population was the fertility ratethe

    1970-2015年,對全球人口的主要影響是生育率----。

  • number of children a women could expect to bear during her lifetime. It fell dramatically

    婦女一生中可望生育的子女數量。它急劇下降。

  • over the period, meaning that the world shifted from having larger to smaller families.

    在這一時期,意味著世界上的家庭從大到小的轉變。

  • But in 2015-60, the biggest influence upon the population will be ageing. Small families

    但在2015-60年,對人口影響最大的將是老齡化。小家庭

  • are already becoming the norm, the fall in fertility is slowing down and now everyone

    已經成為常態,生育率下降的速度在放緩,現在大家的

  • is living longer than their parentsdramatically so in developing countries.

    比他們的父母活得更久----在開發中國家更是如此。

  • So, by 2060, the dome will have come and gone and now the shape of the population looks

    所以,到了2060年,穹頂就會來了,現在人口的形狀看起來是

  • more like a column (or perhaps an old-fashioned beehive). It is a little fatter near the bottom

    更像一個柱子(或者可能是一個老式的蜂巢)。靠近底部的地方比較肥大

  • and curves in at the top.

    並在頂部彎曲。

  • But up to the age of about 50, the generations are of almost equal size and the shape has

    但到了50歲左右,各代人的體型幾乎相當,形體也已

  • vertical sides.

    豎向兩側。

  • The size of the Earth’s population is still rising, from 7.2 billion in 2015 to 9.5 billion

    地球人口規模仍在上升,從2015年的72億增加到95億。

  • in 2060. But, according to calculations by Emi Suzuki and Wolfgang Fengler of the World

    2060年。但是,根據Emi Suzuki和Wolfgang Fengler的計算。

  • Bank, two- thirds of the extra 2.2 billion people will come from the older age groups,

    行,多出來的22億人口中,有三分之二將來自老年群體。

  • those aged 40 to 59 and those between 60 and 79, not from the younger.

    40至59歲的人和60至79歲的人,而不是年輕人。

  • The increase in the last, oldest segment is especially marked. Between 2015 and 2060,

    最後一個、最老的部分的增長尤為明顯。2015年到2060年之間。

  • the number of 60- to 79-year-olds will double to 850m.

    60歲至79歲的老人將增加一倍,達到850人。

  • That is more than four times the increase in the number of children and teenagers, which

    這是兒童和青少年數量增長的四倍多,這。

  • will rise by only 200m, or 8%.

    將僅上升200米,即8%。

  • The numbers of the oldest people of all (those above 85, here lumped together in one bar)

    所有人中最年長的人(85歲以上的人,這裡歸納為一個條理)的數量。

  • will rise at the fastest rate of all (by 281% in 2015-60), but from a much lower base, so

    將以最快的速度上升(2015-60年上升281%),但基數要低得多,所以。

  • they do not add as many people to the total.

    他們不會把同樣多的人加入到總數中。

  • For all of history, humans have lived in societies dominated (in numbers at least) by children.

    在歷史上,人類一直生活在由兒童主導的社會中(至少在數量上)。

  • By 2060 children will be no more numerous than any other age group. The year 2015 is,

    到2060年,兒童的數量將不超過任何其他年齡組。2015年是:

  • roughly, the half-way point in this astounding transformation.

    大致是這一驚天動地的轉變的半壁江山。

The pyramid is a traditional way of visualising and explaining the age structure of a society.

金字塔是一種傳統的可視化方式,也是解釋一個社會年齡結構的方法。

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2015年 : 人口結構的轉變 (The World in 2015: Global population and the changing shape of world demographics)

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    吳方瑀 發佈於 2016 年 10 月 12 日
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