- It's a very good and a very Important question

- 這是一個非常好的，非常重要的問題。

And I think about it a lot With my fellow elders

我經常和我的長輩們一起思考這個問題。

Nelson Mandela brought this group Of elders together

納爾遜-曼德拉把這群長者聚集在一起。

And we constantly look at failed states، States in conflict

我們經常看到失敗的國家... ...衝突中的國家

Visit، and try to analyze

訪問】試分析

I also have another reference point Which you touched on

我還有另一個參考點，你也提到了

I've been on the board and the prize comity Of the Mo Ibrahim foundation

我一直是莫-易卜拉欣基金會的董事會和獎金委員會成員。

Since it's started we're like 10 years 2016 is our 10th year

自從它'開始，我們'就像10年一樣2016年是我們的第10年。

And the Ibrahim index Covers 15 years

而易卜拉欣指數涵蓋了15年。

Because we did 2 years at a time

因為我們一次做了2年

And it covers 4 main areas

而它主要包括4個方面

Safety and rule of law، which covers Rule of law، accountability، personal safety

安全及法治 涵蓋法治、問責、人身安全等內容

And national safety

和國家安全

And then participation and human rights Which covers participation، rights and gender

然後是參與和人權，包括參與、權利和性別問題

And sustainable economic opportunity which is Public management، business environment

以及可持續發展的經濟機會，即公共管理→商業環境

Infrastructure and rural sectors

基礎設施和農村部門

And then human development which is Welfare، education and health

然後是人的發展，即福利、教育、健康的發展

So it's a broad mix

所以這是一個廣泛的組合

And what we notice is first of all That unfortunately the countries at the bottom

我們注意到的是，首先，不幸的是，最底層的那些國家

Of the 54 African countries Are countries in conflict

在54個非洲國家中，有衝突的國家

That's very simple، it's very clear With Somalia at the bottom

這很簡單，很清楚，索馬里是底層

Secondly، if countries don't have A good balance between those 4

二是如果國家在這四者之間沒有一個很好的平衡。

They may be likely to have difficulties

他們可能會有困難

And interestingly، that happened During the Arab spring

有趣的是，那是發生在阿拉伯之春的事

There were strong economic development To some extent

經濟發展勢頭強勁 在一定程度上

But not participation in rights

但不參與權利

And you had the flare Up of the Arab spring

而你有阿拉伯之春的信號彈。

And we could have predicted it We didn t، but we could have

我們可以預知，但我們可以預知的

Afterwards when we looked To the data

之後，當我們查看數據時

We said we should've been Able to message that

我們說，我們應該能給你發資訊的。

- Gebril، why didn't this region Forecast the Arab spring

- 為什麼這個地區沒有預測到阿拉伯之春？

If you believe it felt juicy And how did governors play a part؟

如果你相信它感覺多汁，以及如何州長髮揮了一定的作用？

- Well، first of all I would like to extend my gratitude and thanks for the invitation

- 首先我想對你的邀請表示感謝，謝謝你的邀請

I would say that because of change of paradigm That took place by the end of the 80s early 90s

我想說的是，因為80年代末90年代初發生的範式的變化

We live in a completely new world

我們生活在一個全新的世界

Ironically enough، societies all over the world Became more globalized

諷刺的是世界各地的社會都變得越來越全球化了

While governments and states، Most of them are a little national

而政府和國家呢 大多數都是有點國家性質的人

And this is really ironic And funny at the same time

這真的很諷刺，同時也很有趣。

If you look at Europe today because of the wave of immigration، immigrants، refugees

如果你看看今天的歐洲，因為移民潮、移民潮、難民潮的影響

They are taking nationalities

他們正在接受國籍

And don't rule out that one of the possibilities

而且不排除其中一種可能。

Like this you know

像這樣你就知道了

On the other hand، Arab societies Are getting connected

另一方面，阿拉伯社會的聯繫越來越緊密

Because the name of the game In the global world is connectivity

因為在全球範圍內，遊戲的名稱是連通性。

With the new expectations Specially the youth

帶著新的期望，特別是年輕人

They have more skills More expectations، more dreams

他們有更多的技能 更多的期望 更多的夢想

The governments faced those uprisings With the old tools، from the industrial age

政府用工業時代的舊工具面對這些起義者

Whether their security systems، Their education systems

無論是安全制度還是教育制度

Their work force Everything is related to the past

他們的勞動力 一切都與過去有關

Therefore، you have 2 options

是以，你有兩個選擇

Governments that do not adapt Themselves to this globalized age

不適應這個全球化時代的政府。

They're going to fail

他們會失敗的

Governments that are not responsive enough To those new dreams of global societies

對全球社會的新夢想反應不足的政府。

I would say، or global individuals in those societies With those new dreams

我想說的是... ...或者說是那些社會中的全球個人... ...帶著那些新的夢想... ...

They're going to fail

他們會失敗的

So the name of the game is Responsiveness in the past

所以，遊戲的名稱是過去的Responsiveness。

Where more inclusiveness Is at heart of everything

在這裡，更多的包容性是一切的核心。

And more adaptation and realignment Of the global society

更多的是對全球社會的適應和調整。

- In your experience Why do governments fail؟

- 根據你的經驗，為什麼政府會失敗？

- In my experience I think that Every government fails sometimes

- 根據我的經驗，我認為每個政府都有失敗的時候。

And have some success some other times

並有一些成功的其他時間

No government can pretend having only successes

沒有一個政府可以假裝只有成功

To try، and try again

要試，再試

Of course success depends very much on The legitimacy that one government may have

當然，成功與否在很大程度上取決於一個政府的合法性。

If you have، as Mahmud Gebril Has mentioned it very rightly

如果你有 正如馬哈茂德-格布里爾所說的那樣

If you have strong institutions coming from history If you have a very cohesive society

如果你有來自歷史的強有力的制度 如果你有一個非常有凝聚力的社會。

It's of course a very strong help

當然，這是一個非常強大的幫助。

Because you can support your work On very very strong tools

因為你可以用非常非常強大的工具來支持你的工作。

But the legitimacy is the key Because if you are able to put forward a strong vision

但合法性是關鍵 因為如果你能提出一個強有力的願景

A long term vision، with strong institutions And if you have، you are able to mobilize

要有長遠的眼光，要有強大的機構 如果你有，你就有能力去調動

Public consent

公開同意

Then of course reforms adaptations Are a lot easier

那當然改革調整就容易多了。

Even a refugee crisis can be solved

即使是難民危機也可以解決

But the big problem is you are very often Not able to fulfill the demand of the people

但最大的問題是，你往往不能滿足人們的需求。

On a short term basis Which is what they ask

短期的，這就是他們的要求。

Look at what happened in Germany for example

看看在德國發生的事情，例如

Angela Merkel has been having A very human reaction to the refugee crisis

默克爾對難民危機的反應很人性化

But of course، problems are there And problems are not easy to solve

但問題當然是存在的，而問題也不是那麼容易解決的

And the numbers are so high One million people coming just in the last year

人數如此之多 僅在去年就有一百萬人來到這裡

This is a huge burden for the German society Even if they have faced reunification

這對德國社會來說是一個巨大的負擔 即使他們已經面臨統一的問題

And have the courage to go for reunification From one that one other

並有勇氣去統一 從一個人到另一個人的統一

One million refugees is of course A big big problem

一百萬難民當然是個大問題了

So you cannot have answers On a short term basis

所以你不可能在短期內得到答案。

And it's difficult to explain With the media pressure

而這很難解釋，因為媒體的壓力太大

With the social networks pressure

隨著社交網絡的壓力

Very difficult to find answers just in One day، one week، one month

很難在一天、一週、一個月內找到答案。

So it takes time، it takes more legitimacy And also it takes new tools

所以需要時間，需要更多的合法性 也需要新的工具

Because new technologies، new challenges You need to adapt constantly yourself

因為新的技術，新的挑戰，你需要不斷地去適應它。

So there's not just one answer At the time

所以當時並不是只有一個答案。

You cannot just say I have a success today

你不能只說我今天成功了

And I will be successful tomorrow

而我明天就會成功

No you need constantly to change And work harder

不，你需要不斷地改變，更加努力地工作

- Been more than 14 minutes then to sort it out Is that what you're telling us right؟

- 已經超過14分鐘，然後整理出來 這是你告訴我們的權利嗎？

Okay، only got 14 minutes We've got less than 30 now

好吧，只有14分鐘，現在只有不到30分鐘了

Miss Younes، your thought

尤小姐，你的想法

- Yeah I'd like to go، move forward Rather than go backwards

- 是啊，我想往前走，而不是往後走！

I think there's a pending danger Which was shake the all the governments

我認為有一個懸而未決的危險，它動搖了所有的政府。

Not just few governments

不僅僅是少數政府

This is the concentration of wealth The way their wealth world is moving

這就是財富的集中，他們的財富世界的發展方向。

The information given to us today 62 people in the world، own more wealth

今天給大家的資料是世界上有62人擁有更多的財富。

Than the bottom half of the population

比最底層的一半人口

6 years back، the number was 388 people Owning more than half the wealth of the population

六年前是388人 擁有超過一半人口的財富

So this number is decreasing And wealth is accumulating

所以這個數字在減少，財富在積累

And we are in the way where one person Will own more than half the wealth of the world

而我們正處於一個人將擁有世界一半以上財富的階段。

This is the direction we're going

這就是我們要去的方向。

Even presidential candidate in the USA Barney Sanders، repeatedly saying

連美國總統候選人桑德斯都多次表示

One tenth of 1% of the US population Own 80% of the wealth of the United States

美國1/10的人口擁有美國80%的財富。

So if you go by country by country This will be a threat

所以如果你逐個國家去看，這將是一個威脅。

Because all we talk about human rights Democracy، freedom of the speech

因為大家都在講人權 民主、言論自由

Everything will be threatened If we cannot stop this

如果我們不能阻止這一切，一切都會受到威脅。

This is a global consensus is needed That we cannot allow this concentration to continue

這是需要全球共識的，我們不能讓這種集中的情況繼續下去。

1% of the population of the world Owning 99% of the wealth of the world، today

佔全球人口1% 擁有全球99%的財富 ■今天

Tomorrow، it will be worse

明天會更嚴重

So that's the danger that we have to see If we have to protect our government

所以，這就是我們必須看到的危險 如果我們要保護我們的政府。

If we have to protect our civilization We cannot allow this to continue

如果我們必須保護我們的文明，我們不能允許這種情況繼續下去

- Whatever the existential pressures Or challenges are Mary

- 無論存在的壓力或挑戰是瑪麗

Muhammad Yunus here pointed out that Inequality is something that the government

穆罕默德-尤努斯在此指出，不平等是指政府

Can do something about

可以做一些事情

What about exclusion، a lack of Social justice، a lack of trust

缺少社會公義，缺少信任怎麼辦？

Consensus and a collective aim for a country How do we rate these things on where to look

共識和一個國家的集體目標 我們如何評價這些東西在哪裡看？

At how you achieve a successful government؟

在你如何實現一個成功的政府？

- Well first of all I do agree with Yunus about the gross inequality

- 首先，我同意尤努斯關於嚴重不平等的觀點。

which is worsening and I think it's really undermining

這是在惡化，我認為它真的破壞了

legitimacy and credibility of the governments and I think

政府的合法性和公信力，我認為這是個好機會。

we have to be conscious of that and it has to be addressed

我們必須意識到這一點，而且必須解決這個問題

- who's going to address that؟ - well، I think it has to be

- 誰來解決這個問題呢？

addressed country by country but also at a level of you know

但也是在你知道的層面上處理的。

The need to understand that cooperate power

需要了解，合作力量

when it becomes power to determine who will win elections

勝負已定

and it's close to that now just abiding of elections

和它的接近，現在只是遵守的選舉

intense money being put in to support candidates

重金助選

despite all the problems in the united states

美國百廢待興

at least there's some evidence of a vibrant response by citizens

至少有一些證據表明市民的反應很活躍

and I think that's to be welcomed but back to your point

我認為這是值得歡迎的，但回到你的觀點。

about the inconclusiveness I think we have to remember

關於不確定性，我想我們要記住的是

that basically business was about a social compact

基本上，商業是關於社會契約

business got the right to incorporate on the bases of you know

企業有權利在你知道的基礎上成立公司。

contributing to human welfare basically and I think we need to remember that

基本上為人類福利做出了貢獻，我認為我們需要記住：

we need to have gender equality and I m very pleased to see

我們需要有性別平等，我很高興地看到。

constant progress in this region particularly in the U.A.E on that

在該區域，特別是在阿拉伯聯合酋長國，在這方面不斷取得進展。

because that's part of inclusion also you know LBT rights

因為那是包容的一部分你也知道LBT的權利。

the gay and lesbian rights I think these are an important

我認為這些都是重要的。

Part of generating real social stability and social contract

形成真正的社會穩定和社會契約的一部分

I m reminded a little bit We were talking about it earlier

我有點想起來了，我們之前說過了

the way in which we got agreement on climate in Paris

我們在巴黎達成氣候協議的方式。

was because the process was more inclusive

是因為該進程更具包容性

the smallest countries felt they were being listened to

小國感到有人在傾聽它們的意見；

the smaller states the least developed countries

小國和最不發達國家

and the target set of well below 2 degrees of warming

和遠低於2度的升溫目標設定

and striving for 1.5 was a better target that we ve

並爭取達到1.5是一個更好的目標，我們已經。

had up till now and will save countries

拯救國家

from going underwater will keep African countries

將使非洲國家不至於被淹沒在水下

from being so buffeted by draught and flooding

風雨飄搖

- that it undermines government - at the beginning of this

there were a number of things that government's can't control

有很多事情是政府無法控制的。

but perhaps I should sort of row back on that

但或許我應該回避一下

to a certain extent because climate change

在一定程度上是因為氣候變化

is something governments can control، and I want to ask

我想請問一下

around the palace just how important you think that is

你認為這有多重要？

to a successful government in the years ahead

在未來的歲月裡，為政府的成功而努力

wars actually governments one single government

戰國策

may not be able to do anything about a war

兵來將擋，水來土掩

somewhere else but together they can

有朋自遠方來，不亦樂乎

let's just start with because I think climate change

讓'的只是開始，因為我覺得氣候變化

is very much in the news Dominique De Villepin

多米尼克-德-維爾潘的新聞非常多。

you're sense of how important that will be as an issue for

你的感覺是多麼的重要，這將是一個問題，對

governments to be successful going forth in the way

政府的成功之路

- they deal with it - I believe that there's a growing

- 他們處理它--我相信，有一個不斷增長的'。

awareness of how important it is because we see everywhere

意識到它的重要性，因為我們隨處可見

in the plant the consequences unfortunately for very poor countries

不幸的是，對於非常貧窮的國家來說，後果是非常嚴重的。

countries like Bangladesh، Maldives they are facing huge challenges

孟加拉、馬爾地夫等國家正面臨著巨大的挑戰

but in every country the U.S، in Europe، we see

但在美國、歐洲的每一個國家，我們都可以看到

every day the consequences of climate change

氣候變化的後果每天都在發生

so I believe there's a growing awareness، cop 21 in Paris

所以我相信大家對巴黎的警察意識越來越強了

was an important momentum of this awareness

是這種意識的重要動力

but there's so much to be done and the problem is how

但有這麼多的事情要做，問題是如何。

are we going to be organized in a way to have foot full agreements

我們是否會以一種方式組織起來，以獲得足額的協議。

and to keep the promises that are being made today

並履行今天的承諾。

for that we need objectives very clear objectives

為此，我們需要目標，非常明確的目標

each country has to contribute everyone has to be part

每個國家都要做出貢獻，每個人都要成為其中一員

of the adventure، rich country less rich country، and poor countries

富國不富，窮國不窮

because that's really something that's going

因為那是真正的東西，&#39's going

to help understand that we have only one planet

幫助理解我們只有一個星球

and we can't change this planet so this is a link between countries

我們不能改變這個星球，所以這是一個國家之間的聯繫。

it is also a link between generations and I believe that

它也是一代人之間的紐帶，我相信。

young people today are very much aware

今天的年輕人都很清楚

- of the consequences of climate change - Provide us some solutions

- 氣候變化的後果 -- -- 向我們提供一些解決辦法。

Well I would go at two levels strategically at the national level

好吧，我會在國家戰略上分兩個層面去做

for any government it should start by positioning

對於任何一個政府來說，它應該從定位開始

it's economy within the context of the global economy

在全球經濟的背景下，它的經濟。

to discover the competitive edge for that economy

以發現該經濟體的競爭優勢

the moment it discovers that competitive edge

當它發現競爭優勢時

it has an identity for that economy the moment that has been done

它有一個身份的經濟的那一刻，已經完成了。

all the other sub systems should be reconstructed

其他所有子系統都應重新構建。

re-engineering، for instance education، we have moved

以教育為例，我們已經進入了一個新的階段

drastically from axis to knowledge to the management of knowledge

從軸心到知識，再到知識的管理，急劇變化

and today there isn't a single university not only in the region، world wide

到今天為止，不單單是本地區，全世界也沒有一所大學了

that teaches management of knowledge for any government today

為當今任何政府教授知識管理的機構

five skills are very much needed management of complexity

五大技能是非常需要的 複雜性管理

management of creativity and innovation management of uncertainty

創意和創新的管理 不確定性的管理

management of flow of information and management of diversity

信息流的管理和多樣性的管理

- so it's raise your hands - if humans beings yes it is

- 所以，它's舉起你的手-如果人類是的，它是

- I have to go - because I feel the human being

- 我得走了，因為我感覺到了人的存在

Is the most resource besides what you're talking about

是除了你說的最多的資源'。

we mentioned we focused on the young people

我們說過我們的重點是年輕人

particularly، this new generation of young people،

尤其是這一代年輕人

has a lot more potential than we ever had before

比我們以前有更多的潛力。

because of the access to technology a five year old today

因為今天五歲的孩子能接觸到科技。

is more technologically oriented than a 50 year old

比一個50歲的老人更注重技術。

and this will get more and more like that، so there will be mismatch

這樣的情況會越來越多，所以會出現錯位的情況。

between the government and the young generation

政府與年輕一代之間

one of the most important solutions is connecting hearts and minds

最重要的解決方案之一是連接人心。

this is the theme of Dubai expo 2020 this is one of the most difficult goals