Name: 央行行長的影響力有多大？ (How influential are central bank governors | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:27:18.000Z
Duration: 2 min 42 s

A clutch of new central bank governors are settling into their seats, or about to, from Australia and India, to Malaysia and Turkey

新的一批來自世界各地，從澳洲和印度到馬來西亞和土耳其，的央行總裁剛剛上任

but do investors care about them anymore?

There was a time when these appointments would move markets and have longer-term consequences, but in a world of ultra-low interest rates

央行總裁上任這件事曾經足以動搖市場並造成較長期性的影響，但在利率極低的時代

do these great and serious people make any difference?

這些重要人士的上任對投資者有影響嗎？

Monetary policy best operates when central banks are doing different things, rather than all following the same herd instinct

世界各地的央行各自在做不同的事物時，而不是一味地做同件事，貨幣政策才運作得好

When policies differ, and one central bank cuts rates while another raises them, then capital is on the move, but now, central banks look incapacitated

當政策不同且一間央行調降、另一間卻升高利率時，資產正在移動，但現在，央行的力量似乎減弱了

It is the unintended consequence of the G20 meeting of policy makers in Shanghai in February,

這是二月各國政策制定者在上海開的 G20 高峰會無意間造成的後果

when they all accepted the need to avoid competitive currency devaluations in order to calm some volatile markets

政策制定者都認為有必要為了緩和一些不穩定的市場而避免各國貨幣競貶

Now, markets are so calm and volatility so low that central banks worry that a slight policy tweak will have too big a market impact

如今，市場很安穩，揮發性低到央行擔憂任何一點政策上的變動會對於市場造成過大的影響

Who would've thought at the start of the year that the Fed, which was then plotting four rate hikes for 2016, would become so allergic to the idea of a stronger dollar?

誰會想到今年年初，原本預計要在 2016 年加四次息的美國聯邦儲備銀行如今會這麼反對美元升值？

Is this year's rally in emerging markets FX really a sensible affirmative bet, or one based on a lack of meaningful alternatives?

今年新興國家外匯市場的回歸是一個理性且充滿肯定的賭注，還是這只是因為沒有其他可行方案？

And is the idea of fiscal stimulus as a solution to global low growth being floated around, simply because nothing else seems to work

拿財政刺激來解決全球性低經濟成長一直被討論是否純粹是因為沒有更好的解決方法？

At least there is one voice bucking the trend

The San Francisco Fed chief John Williams last week said that the Fed needed to think out of the box, and raise its inflation target in order to give it more room for maneuver

舊金山聯儲主席 John Williams 在上禮拜說明美聯儲必須跳出框架思考，提高目標通膨率才可以有更大的調整空間

Now, central bank governors, whether they are incoming or incumbent, will welcome that

現在，無論是即將上任或現任的央行總裁，都會同意

What's more important, their own data or the data coming out of the US?

他們自己的資料還是美國的資料重要？

Now investors know the answer to that. They would like to care what the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India says, but they have little reason to look beyond the Fed

投資者知道答案是什麼。他們會想知道印度儲備銀行的下一任總裁有什麼話要說，但沒有必要太在乎美聯儲

We used to talk about globalization and interdependence

我們之前都會討論全球化以及互賴性

Strange then, dependent on one set of policymakers, the world has now become

如今世界卻變得如此依賴一群政策決定者，非常奇怪