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    謝謝您能來

  • Thank you for coming.

    謝謝

  • >> Move us all, thank you.

    這門課太棒了

  • Cool, so you guys this is awesome,

    前面幾節課我一直關注著

  • I've been watching the lectures in this course,

    講的真是太棒了!

  • isn't it absolutely amazing the content?

    今天只能委屈大家聽我講了

  • And now you're stuck with me today.

    我們正式開始

  • >> We'll, so how that goes.

    在Paul演講的問答環節中

  • Unlike Paul, when he was talking in the Q and A,

    同學們問他如果他現在上大學的話他會學什麼專業?

  • and you guys asked him what he would do if he was at

    他回答說是物理

  • college today and

    我大學時學的就是物理

  • he said physics, I actually indulged myself.

    在劍橋讀物理

  • I went in, I went and did physics,

    我認為物理很棒從中學到的知識

  • did physics at Cambridge and I think physics is

    可以為其他領域所用

  • an amazing class to give you transferable skills that

    今天大家來聽的不是這個問題

  • are really useful in other areas.

    今天講的不是物理

  • But I guess that's not,

    我自費學習了大學網絡營銷課程直接營銷課程

  • that's not why you're listening to me today.

    我從上世紀90年代開始接觸SEO(搜​​索引擎優化)

  • Like, physics isn't the class, like, so I paid for

    我創立了一家紙飛機網站並壟斷了這個市場

  • college doing online marketing.

    在紙飛機這個小眾市場

  • Direct sales marketing.

    有著壟斷地位

  • I started with SEO in the 1990s.

    當你準備創業的時候

  • I created a paper airplane site.

    要從長遠角度考慮一下市場有多大紙飛機網站市場不大

  • I had a monopoly.

    但是就是這個經歷教會了我如何做SEO

  • In the small niche market of

    當時用的搜索引擎是Altavista

  • paper airplanes globally which you know,

    做SEO的方法是

  • when you want to start a startup also see how big

    把白底白字的內容放在網頁下方不明顯的位置

  • the market could be in the long term it wasn't great.

    如果該文本中出現20到30個紙飛機字樣

  • But what that taught me was how to do SEO.

    在Altavista搜索排名中就能佔首位

  • And back in those days it was Altavista, and

    上世紀90年代就是這樣做SEO的

  • the way to do SEO was to have white text on

    很容易上手

  • a white background five pages below the fold.

    我上大學時學的是物理專業

  • And you would rank top of Alta Vista if you just paper

    當時我想紙飛機可以讓我變酷

  • airplanes 20 or 30 times in that text.

    我當時是物理班上最書呆子的了

  • And that was how you won at SEO in the 1990s.

    所以我就創建了雞尾酒網站

  • Like it was a really easy, easy skill to learn.

    我就是在這個時候學習了編程

  • When I went to college, being a physicist,

    那個網站後來發展成了英國最大的雞尾酒網站

  • I thought paper airplanes would make me cool, and

    當Google嶄露頭角的時候上述經歷使​​得我做SEO游刃有餘

  • I was actually the most nerdy person in

    在Google上做SEO時需要考慮網頁排名算法

  • the physics class, so I created a cocktail site.

    需要考慮有多少網頁鏈接到你的網站上

  • Which was how I learned to program.

    此時

  • And that grew to be the largest cocktail site in

    如果雅虎黃頁鏈接了你的網站

  • the UK.

    並且網頁底部也有白底白字的關鍵詞的話

  • And that really got me into SEO properly when

    你的網站就可以在谷歌頁面排名中高居榜首

  • Google launched.

    當谷歌有了關鍵字廣告

  • So with Google, you had to worry about page rank, and

    此時我開始自己做生意

  • you had to worry about getting links

    也就是先從谷歌買下廣告鏈接

  • back to your site.

    再通過會員程序為eBay打廣告賺錢

  • Which basically, at that stage,

    差不多能有20%的利潤

  • meant one link from the Yahoo directory.

    這些經歷讓我率先進入了

  • Got you to the top listing in Google if you had white

    目前大家所說的

  • text, on a white background, below the fold, as well.

    增長或是增長黑客領域

  • When Google launched AdWords that's when I

    在我看來就是網絡營銷而已

  • really started to learn how to do all my marketing.

    利用各種渠道達到期望目標

  • And that was buying paid clicks from Google, and

    這就是我學營銷的經歷

  • reselling them to eBay for

    我本想成為一名物理學家結果成了營銷人士

  • a small margin of like 20% using our affiliate program.

    利用互聯網進行營銷

  • And that was what really kicked me into overdrive

    你們認為什麼對於增長最重要? 59 00:02:24,350 --> 00:02:26,​​940 你們聽過很多講座了這個話題被討論很多次了 60 00:02:26,​​940 --> 00:02:28,970 你們認為什麼對於增長最重要?

  • into doing what everyone nowadays talks about is

    告訴我個答案

  • growth, or growth hacking, or growth marketing.

    好產品

  • And in my mind it's just internet marketing.

    好產品對的

  • Using whatever channel you

    好產品會帶來什麼呢?

  • can to get whatever output you want.

    顧客

  • And that's how I paid for college and how I

    顧客需要顧客做什麼呢?

  • ended up going from being a physicist to a marketer and

    傳播口碑坐著回答就行

  • transitioning to the dark side of the force.

    有人說用戶留存對的

  • So what do you think matters most for growth.

    用戶留存對於增長最重要

  • You've had loads of lectures and

    目前Facebook有非常優秀的增長團隊

  • people have said it over and over, so

    能成為其中一員我非常榮幸

  • what do you guys think matters most for growth?

    重要的是我們有非常棒的產品

  • Someone give me an answer.

    Facebook的增長團隊發揮著關鍵作用

  • >> Great product.

    因為我們推銷的產品

  • >> Great product.

    全世界人民都想用

  • I agree, great product.

    這點非常贊

  • What does great product lead to?

    一旦讓人們接觸到Facebook 他們就會愛上Facebook

  • >> Customers.

    我給很多創業公司提供過諮詢服務

  • >> Customers.

    我最得意的是與Airbnb的合作我還跟Coursera合作過

  • And what do you need those customers to do?

    我還跟其他一些不如這幾家公司有名的一些公司合作過

  • >> Spread the word.

    有一件事被反複印證

  • Someone said stay on your site.

    那就是如果你看一下這條曲線

  • Someone said that.

    用戶活躍度隨用戶獲取時間的變化

  • That's it. Retention.

    如果你能得到

  • Retention is the single most important thing for growth.

    幾乎平行於x軸的用戶留存曲線

  • Now we have an awesome growth team at Facebook, and

    那麼你的公司就是成功的

  • I'm super proud to work on it.

    你的產品適合一定的市場

  • But the truth of

    用戶數飛漲的大部分公司

  • the matter is we have a fantastic product.

    會使用增長黑客病毒式傳播和其他一些手段

  • But getting to work on growth at Facebook is

    我盡量不罵他們但有時會忍不住

  • a massive privilege, because we're promoting something

    他們的用戶留存曲線沿X軸下滑

  • that everyone in the world really wants to use.

    最終與X軸相交

  • Which is absolutely incredible.

    當我把這個圖展示給別人看時

  • If we can get people on, and

    大部分人說:不錯啊

  • get them ramped up, they stick on Facebook.

    當你開創Facebook的增長小組時

  • So many times I go advise multiple startups,

    Facebook每天有100萬新用戶

  • my favorite was working with Airbnb, but

    或是已經有了5000萬用戶

  • I've worked with Coursera, I've worked with

    有很多人訪問Facebook

  • other ones that haven't done as well as those guys.

    你有大量的數據進行統計

  • But the one thing that is true over, and over, and

    我們把同樣的方法用在了B2B業務增長上

  • over again is if you look at this curve.

    吸引用戶註冊自助廣告服務

  • The sentiment, the active,

    我們用這種方法

  • versus number of days from acquisition.

    來分析我們在該市場中的增長

  • If you end up with a retention curve that

    當時

  • ascentotes to a line parallel to the x axis.

    當我加入Facebook時該產品推出只有3天

  • You have a viable business, and

    推出該產品90天后

  • you have product market fit for some subset of market.

    我們就能用這個方法來計算

  • But most of the companies that you see fly up,

    一位廣告商一年創造的價值

  • we talk about growth hacking and virality and

    我們預測出的數值

  • all of this other stuff.

    是真實值的97​​%

  • I'm gonna try so hard not to swear, but it'll happen.

    我認為觀察用戶留存曲線非常重要

  • Their attention curve slopes down towards the X-axis, and

    我們是這麼操作的

  • in the end intercepts the X-axis.

    大家看這裡

  • Now when I show this chart to

    紅色線表示

  • most people they say that's all well and good.

    使用產品一定時間的用戶數

  • You had a million people a day in terms of

    有些人或是說沒有人

  • growth when you started the growth team at Facebook, or

    有些人一直使用你的產品

  • you were at 50 million users.

    所有的用戶至少有一天使用了你的產品

  • You had a lot of people joining the site so

    如果你的產品推出一年了

  • you had a ton of data to do this.

    使用了366天的用戶數為零

  • We used this same methodology for

    說得通嗎?好的

  • our B to B growth.

    然後你這麼來看用戶數

  • Getting people to sign up as self-service advertisers,

    用戶至少使用了一天你的產品

  • we used this analysis to understand how much

    月度活躍用戶佔多大百分比呢?

  • growth we were gonna have in that market as well.

    顯然第一個月是100%

  • And in that place,

    因為第一個月只要是使用過一天的都算活躍的

  • when I joined Facebook, the product was three days old.

    然後看第31天

  • And within 90 days of the product launching,

    註冊31天后

  • we were able to use this technique to be able to

    月度活躍用戶佔多大百分比呢?看第32天

  • figure out what the one year value of an advertiser was,

    看第33天看第34天

  • and we predicted it for the first year to 97% of

    這樣你就可以--

  • what the number turned out to be.

    假設只有10000名用戶

  • So I think it's very important to look at

    就能得到你的產品的

  • your attention curve, and this is how we did it.

    用戶留存曲線

  • If you see here.

    你就可以判斷其走向

  • This red line is number of users,

    圖的右邊會有一些波動

  • who have been on your product for

    我用的不是真實數據

  • a certain number of days.

    圖的右邊會有一些波動

  • So, a bunch of people, that should say zero,

    不過你能看得出來

  • a bunch of people will have been on your product,

    線是不是平的

  • all of your users will have been on it at least one day.

    如果不是平的就不要談什麼增長策略了

  • But, if your product's been around a year, or whatever,

    不要談什麼病毒式增長不要雇增長黑客

  • you will have zero users who've been on it 366 days.

    專心把產品搞好

  • Make sense?

    因為歸根結底如Sam在本課開始提到的

  • The curves sensible?

    創意產品團隊執行

  • Cool.

    如果沒有好產品

  • So what you then do is look for all of your users,

    執行增長策略也沒什麼意義

  • who have been on your product one day.

    因為增長不了

  • What percentage of them are monthly active.

    我在Facebook內部看到的

  • 100% for the first 30 days obviously,

    我在合作過的創業公司中看到的

  • because monthly active they all signed up on one day.

    最主要的問題是沒有好產品但是他們認為有

  • But then you look at 31.

    下一個顯然的問題

  • Every single user, on their 31st day after registration,

    人們反復問的一個問題是

  • what percentage of them were monthly active, 32nd day,

    好的用戶留存率什麼樣?

  • 33rd day, 34th day?

    你可能說:我們公司只有5%的留存率

  • And that allows you,

    (Facebook的留存率要好一些)

  • with only something like 10,000 customers or

    所以我們是失敗的

  • whatever, to get a real idea of what this curve is

    當人們問我好的用戶留存率什麼樣時我會生氣

  • gonna look like for your product.

    因為可以自己算啊

  • And you're gonna be able to tell does it asymptote.

    我喜歡這個故事可能有點像“閒篇子”

  • And it'll get noisy out towards the right-hand side.

    我在這裡給大家講講

  • Like I'm not using real data.

    這個故事的後半部分比較有用

  • It'll get noisy out towards the right hand side, but

    這幅三位一體核試驗圖片發佈於

  • you'll be able to get a handle on,

    1950年的Life雜誌上

  • does this curve flatten out or does it not.

    有個叫Geoffrey Taylor的人有同學知道Geoffrey Taylor嗎?

  • If it doesn't flatten out, don't go and

    很棒有人知道

  • do growth tactics, don't go and

    Geoffrey Taylor是一名英國物理學家

  • do virality, don't hire a growth hacker.

    他後來獲得了諾貝爾獎

  • Focus on getting product market fit.

    他能根據這幅圖片

  • Because in the end,

    求出原子彈的威力

  • as Sam said in the beginning of this course,

    這是美國的一顆原子彈

  • idea, product, team, execution.

    俄羅斯發布了相似的圖片

  • If you don't have a great product,

    不過是用因次推論做出來的

  • there's no point executing well on growing it.

    這種技巧

  • Because it won't grow.

    是我在英國讀物理時

  • Number one problem I've seen inside Facebook for

    學到的最好的方法

  • new products, number one problem I've seen for

    其原理就是

  • startups I ever devised has been, they don't actually

    看一下問題中涉及的量綱

  • have product market fit when they think they do.

    如果想計算出能量

  • So the next obvious question that people ask over and

    能量等於牛頓·米

  • over and over again is okay, so

    牛頓等於千克·米/秒^2

  • what does good retention look like?

    所以能量就等於千克·米^2/秒^2

  • Sure I can have five percent retention but

    所以你就要算出

  • I'm guessing that Facebook had better than that, so

    其中各個值具體是多少

  • that's not gonna be a successful business.

    此處的質量是球體的體積

  • And I get really pissed off when

    因此可以把米的立方代進去

  • people ask me that question.

    那麼就變成了能量等於米^5/秒^2

  • Because I think you can figure it out.

    能據此計算出

  • And I love this story, and this is like my one

    原子彈的威力

  • gratuitous story that I love that I'm throwing in here,

    計算出俄羅斯和美國的原子彈的威力比

  • so the rest of it may not be as gratuitous.

    從而解密了

  • But this is a picture that was published in

    當時世界的頂級機密

  • Life magazine in 1950 of

    這個是很難的問題

  • one of the Trinity nuclear bomb tests.

    計算出Facebook的用戶留存並不困難

  • And there's a guy,

    全世界有多少網民?

  • Geoffrey Taylor, who's heard of Geoffrey Taylor.

    說個大體數

  • Awesome.

    有人說24億有人說23億差不多就是這麼個數

  • Yes.

    Facebook在中國是被禁的那麼還有多少網民?

  • Someone's heard of him.

    約10億

  • Geoffrey Taylor was a British physicist,

    約20億?好的20億網民

  • who ended up actually winning the Nobel Prize.

    Facebook在上次收益報告中稱

  • And he was able to figure out from looking at

    約有13億活躍用戶

  • this picture, what the power of the atomic bomb was,

    可以把兩個數相除

  • the U.S. atomic bomb.

    結果是不准確的

  • And Russian's were publishing similar pictures,

    當然結果不准確

  • just using dimensional reasoning.

    但是可以讓你大體了解

  • And dimensional reasoning is I think,

    Facebook的用戶留存率

  • one of the best skills that I learned during my

    如果把全世界網民都算上的話

  • time studying physics back in the U.K..

    得出的結果要比剛才的數大一些

  • And what dimensional reasoning is, is you look at

    同理如果看Whats App的話

  • the dimensions that are involved in a problem.

    他們公司宣稱有6億活躍用戶

  • So, you wanna figure out energy?

    有多少人有智能手機呢?你可以估算出來

  • Newtons, meters, newtons are kilograms, meters are second

    這個數據比較好找

  • to the minus 2, so you've got kilograms,

    從而可以大體知道有多少用戶

  • meters squared, seconds to the minus 2,

    Amazon很火

  • and then you try and figure out how you can get each of

    幾乎所有美國人都註冊了

  • those numbers from what data you have.

    你可以知道在美國有多少網民

  • So, the mass.

    從他們公佈的數據

  • Is the volume of this sphere.

    可以推出亞馬遜有多少用戶存留

  • So, that's a meter cubed you throw in there.

    公司類型不同

  • So you've got meters the 5 over seconds the minus 2,

    用於判斷公司是否成功的留存率標準也不同

  • and he was able to use that to just figure out

    如果是電子商務公司

  • what the power of this atomic bomb was,

    月度活躍用戶有20%或30%的話

  • what the ratios of the power between the Russian and

    公司經營得就很好

  • US atomic bomb, and essentially reveal one of

    如果是社交網絡公司

  • the top secrets that existed in the world at that time.

    第一批註冊用戶

  • That's a hard problem.

    留存率不足80%的話

  • Figuring out what

    該公司就不會火起來

  • Facebook's retention rate is not a hard problem.

    因此用戶留存率多少算成功

  • How many people are there on the internet?

    得取決於評判標準

  • Give or take someone throw something out.

    你需要有一套方法

  • >> 2.4 billion, 2.3 billion.

    找出可以進行比較的模板

  • Something like that right?

    你可以以此為標尺

  • Okay, Facebook's banned in China.

    看自己處於什麼位置才算成功了

  • So.

    因此用戶留存率對於增長最重要

  • What now?

    用戶留存來源於好創意

  • >> About a billion.

    將創意轉化為好產品並且產品適合市場

  • >> About 2 billion?

    看一個產品的留存率是否好

  • 2 billion. So

    使用同期群分析的話

  • 2 billion people on the internet.

    就要看註冊用戶

  • Facebook in their last earnings call

    是否長期使用

  • said something around 1.3 billion in

    一個好方法就是

  • terms of the number of active users.

    看產品的前100個用戶

  • You can divide those numbers by each other.

    前1000個用戶前10000個用戶

  • And yeah, that won't give you the right answer.

    他們能被長期留住嗎?

  • Course it's not gonna give you the right answer.

    那麼如何進行增長?

  • But it's gonna give you

    假如你的產品有非常棒的市場

  • close enough to a ballpark figure.

    你們是家電子商務公司

  • Of what the retention rate looks like for Facebook.

    每個月有60%的回頭客購買商品

  • If we signed everyone on the internet up, and

    能做到這樣的話就很棒了

  • then you will know it is higher than that.

    你據此判斷是時候擴張了

  • Similarly if you look at Whats App, they've announced

    現在就到了前面講的最後一步——執行了

  • six hundred million active users.

    此時是增長團隊進入的契機

  • How many people have smart phones?

    我的觀點與別人不同

  • You can figure out that number.

    我認為初創業公司不需要增長團隊

  • That number is out knocking around.

    還是說錯話了

  • It can give an idea of how many users there are.

    不需要增長團隊

  • Amazon has had a pop at

    初創業公司不需要專門的增長團隊

  • signing up almost everyone in the United States.

    整個團隊就是增長團隊

  • You know how many people are online in the US, and

    CEO就是增長團隊的隊長

  • you've got a good idea of how many

    你需要有人為你指明方向你需要一顆“北極星”

  • customers Amazon are from the numbers they throw out.

    這幅圖片來自NASA

  • Different verticals need different terminal retention

    你需要有人為公司的發展

  • rates for them to have successful businesses.

    指明方向

  • If you're in e-commerce and you're retaining on

    我認為

  • a monthly active basis like 20, 30% of your users,

    這個人就是公司的領導人

  • you're probably gonna do pretty well.

    Mark就是很好的例子

  • If you're in social media, and

    當Facebook面世時

  • your first batch of people signing up to

    很多公司都在曬用戶數

  • your product are not like 80% retained,

    你可以看到MySpace的註冊用戶數

  • you're not gonna have a massive social media site.

    你可以看到Compact的註冊用戶數

  • And so, it really depends on the vertical you're in,

    註冊用戶數隨處可見

  • what the retention rates are.

    但是Mark曬的是月度活躍用戶數

  • What you need to do is have the tools to

    在公司內部他也要求大家以此為奮鬥目標

  • think about who out there is comparable.

    他說的要讓大家都上Facebook

  • And how you can look at it and say,

    指的是大家都在Facebook上活躍

  • am I anywhere close to what real success looks like in

    而不是讓大家都註冊Facebook

  • this vertical?

    月度活躍用戶數是Facebook內部關注的指標

  • So retention is

    也是對外公佈的指標

  • the single most important thing for growth.

    就是這個指標把全世界用戶吸引過來

  • And retention comes from having a great idea, and

    這個指標是我們所關心的數據

  • a great product to back up that idea and

    Whats App的Jan

  • great product market fit.

    是另一個好例子

  • The way we look at whether a product has great retention

    Jan一直公佈的是發送信息數目

  • or not is whether or not the users who install it.

    發送量對於消息應用是

  • Actually stay on it long term,

    最重要的

  • when you normalize on a cohort basis, and

    如果用戶每天都用

  • I think that's a really good methodology for

    但是一天只發一條信息

  • looking at your product and saying, okay, the first 100,

    這樣的話你們家的應用應該不是該用戶最常用的

  • the first 1,000, the first 10,000 people I get on this,

    因此Jan公佈的是消息數目

  • will they be retained in the long run?

    Airbnb關心的是房間預定晚數

  • So now how do you attack operating for growth?

    他們公佈的也是這個數據

  • Let's say you have awesome product market fit.

    例如在Tech Crunch上發布的數據圖

  • You have built an e-commerce site and you have 60% of

    他們公司總是與

  • people coming back every single month and

    世界上最大的連鎖酒店的預定晚數進行比較

  • making a purchase from you.

    不同的公司有不同的北極星

  • Which would be absolutely fantastic.

    北極星不一定是

  • How do you take that and say now it's time to scale?

    月度活躍用戶數

  • Now it's time to

    對於eBay來說最關心的是成交額

  • execute was the last thing in your thought.

    即顧客在eBay上實際買了多少錢的東西

  • Right?

    局外人傾向於用收入來評價eBay

  • And that's where I think growth teams come in.

    實際上

  • Like my contrarian viewpoint, or

    Benedict Evans將Amazon的市場進行了完美的分析

  • whatever is if you're a start-up you

    很有意思

  • shouldn't have a growth team.

    將第三方業務與自營業務進行對照

  • >> Damn it.

    EBay全是第三方業務

  • So close.

    雖然外界以收入來評判eBay

  • Halfway through and I failed.

    但eBay實際的成交額是其十倍甚至以上

  • You shouldn't have a growth team.

    成交額才是eBay內部關注

  • Start-ups should not have growth teams.

    並以此為奮鬥目標的

  • The whole company should be the growth team.

    關於增長不同的公司

  • The CEO.

    有不同的“北極星”

  • Should be the head of growth.

    在增長的操作過程中

  • You need someone to set a North Star for

    擁有並定義“北極星”

  • you, gratuitous shot of the, you know, NASA page.

    是很重要的

  • You need someone to set a North Star for

    北極星重要的原因是

  • you about where the company wants to go.

    一旦公司的人數不止你一個

  • And that person needs to be the person leading

    你就不能夠控制其他每個人的行為

  • the company, in my opinion, from what I've seen.

    我可以很確定地跟你講我現在管理著100個人

  • And Mark is a fantastic example of that.

    我根本沒法控制他們每個人

  • Back when Facebook started lots of people were

    我可以給一個員工分配具體的任務

  • putting out their registered user numbers.

    但是其他的99名員工該干什麼就乾什麼

  • Right? You'd see registered user

    什麼對於公司至關重要

  • numbers for MySpace.

    大家並不明確

  • You'd see registered user numbers for Compact.

    對於eBay來講

  • You'd see registered user numbers.

    大家可以關注收入

  • Mark put out monthly active users as the number both

    可以關注出貨量

  • internally he held everyone to.

    可以關注

  • And said we need everyone on Facebook, but

    eBay上商品的數量

  • that means everyone active on Facebook.

    Pierre Meg和John

  • Not everyone signed up to Facebook.

    是eBay的領導人

  • So monthly active people was the number internally.

    他們說要以成交額為衡量標準

  • And it was also the number he published externally.

    還有我們網站在電子商務領域市場份額所佔的比率

  • It was the number he made the whole world hold

    這對eBay來說才是最重要的

  • Facebook to as the number that we cared about.

    這就意味著其他人在開會

  • If you look at what Yam has done with What's Up I

    有的員工沒有參與

  • think it's another great example.

    當這些人坐在電腦前

  • He always published send numbers.

    思考要上架何種產品

  • If you're a messaging application,

    要添加何種特徵時

  • sends is probably the single most important number.

    他們頭腦清醒要以成交額為奮鬥目標

  • If people use you once a day.

    而不是收入

  • Maybe that's great, but they send one message.

    不以註冊用戶數為目標

  • They, you're not really their primary messaging

    註冊用戶數不重要長期用戶才重要

  • mechanism, so Yan published the sentence number.

    用個例子來說明2004年我與eBay合作時

  • Right?

    我們改變了向合作網站支付的方式

  • Inside AvianB they talk about nice book, and

    當時會員程序有點過時了

  • they also published that in all of the,

    會員程序的思想

  • like, infographics that you see inside Tech Crunch.

    本質上就是 349 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:0​​2,240 給增加你網站流量的貢獻者報酬 350 00:15:0​​2,240 --> 00:15:0​​4,380 通常的做法是 351 00:15:0​​4,380 --> 00:15:0​​6,040 鏈接到不同的大型的營銷網站上 352 00:15:0​​6,040 --> 00:15:0​​9,550 這裡面有很多很好的故事 353 00:15:0​​9,550 --> 00:15:13,480 用戶確認註冊後我們會支付報酬

  • They always benchmark themselves against how many

    合作網站

  • nights booked they

    爭相為我們推薦用戶

  • have compared to the largest hotel chains in the world.

    後來我們改變了支付模式

  • They have, each of these companies,

    只有用戶確認註冊並使用網站服務後才付報酬

  • a different north star.

    用戶要確認註冊信息並在eBay上競價

  • The north start doesn't have to be

    或是買東西或是拍賣東西這樣我們才給合作網站支付報酬

  • monthly active users for every different vertical.

    我們做出改變之後一夜間

  • For eBay, when I was there,

    合作網站推薦的確認註冊用戶

  • it was gross merchandised volume.

    下降了20%

  • How much stuff did people actually buy through eBay.

    但是活躍註冊用戶數(ACRU)只下降了5%

  • Everyone externally tends to judge eBay based on revenue.

    註冊用戶數和活躍註冊用戶數的比值上升了

  • Actually, Benedict Evans has

    並且ACRU的增長加快

  • done this amazing breakdown of Amazon's business.

    如果想增加確認註冊​​用戶數(CRU)可以這麼做

  • Which is really interesting.

    如果有人搜索“蹦床”

  • To look at their marketplace business versus their

    你就把他們引導到你們的註冊頁面上

  • direct business.

    為了能獲取蹦床信息

  • EBay is all marketplace business, right.

    他們不得不註冊並確認

  • So eBay's being judged by its revenue when it

    如果你想增加ACRU 你就把他們引導到

  • actually has ten times, or whatever more

    eBay的蹦床搜索頁面上

  • gross merchandised volume going through the site.

    他们看到了自己想买的东西

  • And that was the number that eBay looked at when I

    很激动 所以立马注册并购买

  • was inside there, and optimized for.

    如果只是想增加CRU

  • So every different company when it

    当顾客登录网站时 没有那种激动人心的时刻

  • thinks about growth needs a different north star.

    这就是要考虑的第2个重要的东西

  • But when you are operating for

    就是 如何制造激动时刻

  • growth, it is critical that you have that north star and

    让顾客恋上你的网站

  • you define it as a leader.

    在准备本课的讲义时

  • The reason this matters is.

    有很多东西都很精彩 都想把链接给大家

  • The second you have more than one person working on

    我不知道如何取舍

  • anything, you cannot control what everyone else is doing.

    我前面介绍的留存曲线

  • Right?

    有一个链接是

  • I promise you,

    Danny Ferrante讲关于留存曲线的

  • having now might have hit 100 people I'm managing,

    关于激动时刻 有两个视频链接

  • I have no control.

    一个是Chimoff讲增长的

  • It's all influence.

    他在Facebook创立了增长团队

  • Yes, I can say to one person, do this one thing.

    另一个是我的朋友Naomi和我四年前

  • But then the other 99

    讲当时我们是如何看待增长的

  • are gonna do whatever the hell they want.

    这两个视频

  • And the thing is, it's not clear to everybody what

    都涉及到激动时刻

  • the most important thing is a for a company.

    你们在注册Facebook时

  • It would be very easy inside eBay for

    激动时刻是什麼?

  • people to say, you know what?

    当你按下注册按钮时

  • We should focus on revenue.

    此时的激动时刻是什麼?

  • Or you know what? We should focus on

    几年前Mark在YC谈到过

  • the number of people buying from us.

    看到朋友在使用

  • Or you know what? We should focus on

    看到朋友在使用 就是这样简单

  • how many people list items on eBay.

    我跟很多公司交流过

  • And Pierre and Meg and John.

    他们想方设法把业务弄得很复杂

  • Those guys, those various leaders, always said no,

    其实很简单 当你在Facebook

  • it's the amount of gross merchandise volume that

    第一次看到朋友的照片时

  • goes through our site.

    你就知道了这个网站是干什麼的

  • It's the percentage of

    Zuckberg在YC讲到过

  • e-commerce that goes through our site.

    让用户在2周内找到10个朋友

  • That is what really matters for this company.

    这就是我们关注的原因

  • Which means when people are having a conversation and

    上社交网站的第一要务是

  • you're not in the room, when they're sitting in front of

    和朋友联系

  • their computer screen and thinking about how they

    如果没有好友 你的新鲜事里就是空空的

  • build this particular product or

    你必然不会再光顾这个网站了

  • this particular feature.

    你不会收到任何通知

  • In their head,

    不会有朋友告诉你

  • it's gonna be clear to them that it's not about revenue.

    他们错过的事情

  • It's about gross merchandise volume.

    对于Facebook而言 激动时刻就是

  • Or it's not about getting more registrations.

    你在该网站上看到了你的朋友 这也我们的增长动力

  • Registrations don't matter unless they become long term

    如果你看LinkedIn的注册流程

  • active users.

    或是看Twitter的注册流程

  • A great example of this is when I was at Ebay in 2004.

    或是看WhatsApp 当你注册时

  • We changed the way we paid our affiliates for

    这些社交服务的首要任务是

  • new users.

    尽快向你展示

  • And affiliate programs are a bit out of fashion these

    你想关注 联系 发信息的人已经注册了

  • days, but

    在社交领域 这是最重要的

  • the idea of an affiliate program is essentially you

    想想Airbnb 想想eBay

  • pay anyone on the internet.

    至于eBay 激动时刻就是

  • A referral for sending traffic to your site.

    你在上面看到了非常想要的

  • But it's mostly about getting access to like,

    糖果盒或者激光笔

  • big marketers who do it on their own,

    当你看到了你非常想要的东西

  • like separately and

    这就是激动时刻

  • some really good stories from this.

    至于Airbnb 激动时刻就是

  • We were paying for confirmed registered users.

    你看到了一间很酷的房间

  • So all of our affiliates were aligned,

    你推门而入的那一刻

  • they're out getting confirmed registered users,

    反过来也类似 当你把房子挂出去

  • to the base site.

    你第一次收到房租 这就是激动时刻

  • We changed our payment model to pay for

    当你把东西挂在eBay上

  • activated confirmed registered users.

    第一次卖出去的时候 这就是激动时刻

  • So you had to confirm your account and

    这一点 大家可以问Brian

  • then bid on an item, or buy an item or

    因为他们公司做了一个很有意思的版块

  • list an item, to become someone that we paid for.

    分享了

  • Overnight when we made that change,

    用户在Airbnb上的

  • we lost something like 20% of confirmed registered

    激动时刻

  • users that were being driven by the affiliates.

    他会给大家上三节课 对吧?

  • But the ACIUs only dropped by about 5%.

    他很擅长讲激动时刻

  • The ratio of CIU to ACIU went up, and

    让顾客感受到爱与喜悦等等

  • then the growth of ACIUs, massively accelerated.

    想想你的产品的激动时刻

  • The cause of this was if you wanna drive CRUs if

    让顾客尽快感受到激动时刻

  • someone searches for

    这样 你的留存曲线就上升了

  • a trampoline, you land them on the registration page cuz

    你的留存率会很容易地从50%上升到60%

  • they think they have to register and

    上升到70%

  • confirm, before they get that trampoline.

    只要你能让用户感受到激动时刻

  • If you wanna drive ACRUs you land them on the search

    并恋上你的网站 就能做到

  • results page within eBay for trampolines so they can see

    关于第二点 硅谷的所有人对此的想法都是错的

  • the thing they want to buy, get excited about it and

    就是我们认为要增长就必须去优化

  • register when they want to buy it.

    我最喜欢的例子是 消息推送

  • And if you drive just CRUs people don't

    我跟很多公司谈过这个问题 给很多公司提过建议

  • have an amazing,

    每个公司对于消息推送的态度都是

  • magic moment on eBay when they visit the site.

    消息推送太多了

  • And that's the next most important thing to

    得优化消息推送

  • think about, is how do you drive towards the magic

    忠实用户会因为消息推送太多

  • moment that gets people hooked on your service?

    而弃用吗?

  • So in the lecture notes for

    不会的话 为什麼要进行优化呢?

  • this course I've stuck in a bunch of links to people I

    这些用户很可能是成年人 他们会自动过滤信息

  • think are brilliant at all of this stuff.

    你要关注的是那些边缘用户

  • That retention curve I showed earlier,

    那些一天 一个月 甚至一年

  • there's a link to this guy Danny Ferrante

    都收不到一个消息的人

  • whose incredible talking about retention curves.

    我们产品的体验--

  • The magic moment, there are two videos linked.

    顺便说一下 创建极好的产品

  • One is Chimoff talking about growth,

    要以核心用户为准

  • who was the guy who set up the growth team at Facebook.

    创建极好的产品

  • And one is my friend Naomi and

    要根据活跃用户的需求进行优化

  • I talking at F8 four years ago about how we

    但是 涉及到增长

  • were thinking about growth back then.

    就不用担心

  • And in both of those mem,

    那些一直用你们产品的客户了

  • both of those videos we talk about the magic moment.

    我ppt上有个链接

  • So, what do you guys think the magic moment is for

    是Danny Ferrante的视频

  • when you're signing up to Facebook?

    他讲了我们在增长上

  • You hit that big green button,

    需要考虑的增长核算框架

  • what is the moment when users are like ha?

    我们考虑 新用户 失而复得的用户

  • Mark even talked about it at the start up

    也就是那些30天没登陆 之后又登陆的用户

  • school a few years back.

    还有冒泡党

  • >> See your friends.

    我见过的所有产品都面临这种情况

  • >> See your friends.

    当增长到一定的点时

  • Simple as that.

    例如几年后

  • And usually it is very simple.

    失而复得的用户和潜水党

  • I talked to so many companies, and they try and

    占了新用户中大多数

  • get incredibly complicated about what they're doing.

    失而复得的用户和潜水党

  • But it is as simple as just when you see that

    他们有很少的好友

  • first picture of one of your friends on Facebook.

    找不到朋友

  • You go, oh my God, this is what the site is about.

    漠不关心Facebook上的好玩意

  • And Zucks talked at Y Combinator about

    对于这些用户而言

  • getting people to ten friends in 14 days.

    首要任务是为他们找到朋友

  • That is why we focus on that metric.

    为他们找到一定数目的朋友

  • The number one most important thing in

    在增长过程中

  • a social media site is connecting to your friends.

    需要照顾的是边缘用户

  • Because without that,

    增长的实施过程中

  • you have a completely empty news feed, and

    你需要考虑的是 你们公司的北极星是什麼

  • clearly you're not gonna come back.

    你们公司的准则是什麼

  • You'll never get any notifications,

    你们公司的每个人关心的是这个准则

  • you'll never have any friends telling you

    产品朝这个准则方向完善

  • about things they're missing on the site.

    一切努力为此奋斗

  • So for Facebook the magic moment is that moment when

    长此以往 你的公司一定会成功

  • you see your friend's face, and

    顺便提一下

  • everything we do on growth.

    很可能一些东西是交织在一起的

  • And if you look at the LinkedIn registration flow,

    所以 任选一种准则都是可以的

  • or you look at the Twitter registration flow,

    你要选最迫切的那种准则

  • or you look at what WhatsApp does when you sign up,

    你的使命 你的价值观

  • the number one thing all these services look to

    都是与其相通的

  • do is to show you the people you want to follow,

    现实中

  • connect to, send messages to, as quickly as possible.

    日活跃用户和月活跃用户是紧密相关的

  • Because in this vertical, that's what matters.

    谁也离不开谁

  • When you think about Airbnb or you think about eBay,

    分享内容量

  • it's finding on eBay that unique item,

    和用户数是相关的

  • that PEZ dispenser or broken laser pointer that you

    每增加一名用户 他们都会分享新东西

  • really, really cared about, and wanted to get hold of.

    很多东西都是息息相关的

  • Like when you see that collectible thing that you

    选最适合你的那一个

  • were missing, that is the real magic moment on eBay.

    你知道你要为此选择奋斗很久

  • When you look on Airbnb and

    一定要有北极星

  • you find that first, you find that,

    有北极星 并营造激动时刻

  • that first listing that's like a cool house that you

    一旦用户体验到激动时刻

  • can stay in and

    他们就会帮你实现你的指标

  • when you go through the door, that's a magic moment.

    还有 要考虑到边缘用户 不要只考虑自己

  • And similarly on the other side,

    这些是实施增长时

  • when you're listing your house,

    非常重要的几点

  • the first time you get paid, is an amazing moment.

    凡事要一步步地来 最后要讲的一点是策略

  • When you're listing an item on eBay,

    我只是抛砖引玉

  • the first time you get paid is a magic moment.

    我会列举一些策略

  • You should ask Brian what he thinks,

    我最好是借助写字板来讲

  • cuz they've done these amazing storyboards which I

    我在讲的过程中 大家可以提问

  • think has been shared, of like the journey through

    这些策略是如何实施的以及如何做的更好

  • a user's moment on life on, on Airbnb and how excited.

    你需要考虑的重要策略是--

  • Isn't, he's talking in three lectures time?

    顺便提一下

  • The guy's awesome at talking about the magic moment and

    Tom Fishburne是个很棒的小伙子

  • getting his users to feel love and

    这些讥刺画是他画的 我很喜欢

  • joy and all this stuff.

    假如

  • So think about what the magic moment is for

    你已找到利基市场

  • your product, and

    并在该市场有了垄断地位 并埋下“捕鼠器”

  • get people connected to it as fast as possible.

    这是一个藏在床下的无声捕鼠器

  • Because then you

    一旦有老鼠在夜里溜到你床下

  • can move up where that blue line has asymptoted.

    就会被杀死 不会吵醒你

  • Then you can go from 50% retention to 60% retention

    这个市场就是你的利基

  • to 70% retention easily, if you can connect people with

    捕鼠器就是你的杀手锏

  • the thing that makes them stick on your site.

    在硅谷 普遍认同的观点是

  • The second thing to think about is everyone in

    市场营销人员没什麼用

  • the Valley gets wrong, that we optimize when we

    当我是物理系的学生时 我也认为市场营销人员无用

  • think about growth for ourselves.

    我确信 工程系的学生肯定觉得

  • So my favorite example is notifications.

    市场营销人员无用

  • Again, talk to lots of companies, advise lots of

    大家都认为 花香蝶自来

  • companies, every single company when they

    这在硅谷几乎就是信条

  • talk about notifications, goes, oh I'm getting too

    我不认同

  • many notifications, I think that's what we

    我认为 即使有好产品 还是得努力获得用户

  • need to optimize for in notifications.

    在ppt上有个链接 是一篇好文章

  • Okay, are your power users leaving your site

    是对Ben Silvermann的采访

  • because they're getting too many notifications?

    他讲了Pinterest是如何通过市场策略获取增长的

  • No, then why would you optimize that,

    值得好好读 我很偏爱这篇文章

  • they're probably grownups and they can use filters.

    我要讲的第一个策略是 国际化

  • What you need to focus on is the marginal user.

    Facebook国际化得太晚了

  • The one person who doesn't get a notification in

    Sheryl这麼公开说过 我非常认同

  • a given day, or month, or year.

    我们长期发展战略面临的一个最大问题

  • Our experience of our products, and

    我们在进入所有国家要面临的一个最大问题是

  • by the way like building an awesome product is

    山寨

  • all about thinking about the power user, right?

    Studeveldt说过很多网站在其代码中嵌入了Facebook的css

  • Building an incredible product

    不管是否如Studeveldt所言 直接“克隆”

  • is definitely optimizing for

    反正 有大量相似的社交网站

  • the people who use your product the most.

    全世界兴起了很多类似网站

  • But driving growth,

    例如 Vkontakte Mixi Cyworld和Orkut

  • people who are already using your product all the time,

    Facebook只是专注于美国市场而已

  • are not the ones you have to worry about.

    国际化是我们要克服的

  • So, in this Danny Ferrante video there's also this link

    很大的障碍

  • from the lecture page,

    克服障碍对于增长非常重要

  • there's also talk about our growth accounting framework

    Facebook最初是在大学兴起的

  • that we use to think about for growth.

    每横扫一个大学 就相当于克服了一个障碍

  • And we looked at new users, resurrected users,

    当Facebook扩张到高中时

  • people who weren't on Facebook for 30 days and

    那时 我还没进入Facebook

  • came back, and churned users.

    此时是Facebook兴衰存亡的关键时刻

  • And the resurrected and churn numbers for

    人们质疑Facebook能否延续

  • pretty much every product I've ever seen,

    此类社交网站文化是否能延续

  • dominate the new user account.

    从高中扩展到大众时

  • Once you reach a sensible point of growth,

    就在我加入Facebook前夕 又是一个关键时刻

  • a couple of years, and whatever.

    用户突破5000万 然后我们就进入瓶颈期了

  • And all those users who were churning and

    在我们进入瓶颈期时

  • resurrecting, had low friend counts.

    Facebook内部有很多质疑的声音

  • And didn't find their friends, and

    是否社交网站能

  • so weren't connected to

    突破1亿用户

  • the great stuff that was going on, on Facebook.

    现在看来有点可笑 但是当时没有公司能做到

  • And so the number one thing we needed to focus on

    所有社交网站都卡在了5000万和1亿用户之间

  • was getting them to those ten friends, getting them to

    我们担心 这是不可能完成的任务

  • the whatever number of friends they needed.

    就在那时 增长小组成立了

  • So think about the user on the margin,

    Chimoff召集了我们一群人

  • don't think about where yourself when

    他公开说过

  • you're thinking about growth.

    他好多次都想炒我鱿鱼

  • So, operating for

    他或许应该炒了我

  • growth, what you really need to think about is,

    没有Chimoff的话

  • what is the north star of your company.

    我们这些人都不会呆在Facebook

  • What is the one metric where,

    我们是一群怪人 不过增长小组成功了

  • if everyone in the company is thinking about it and

    有两点对于初期增长

  • driving their product was that metric and

    发挥了非常关键的作用

  • their actions towards moving that metric up, you know in

    第一是 我们专注于14天找到10个朋友

  • the long run your company will be successful.

    使用户体验到激动时刻

  • And by the way,

    是Zuckerberg想到的点子

  • they're probably all correlated to each other so

    我们其他人都陷于过度分析中

  • it's fine to pick almost any metric.

    分析是因果还是相关

  • Whichever one is like the deepest, like, that you feel

    Zuckerberg说 如果用户没有好友

  • the best about, that aligns with like your mission and

    他们还会在Facebook上活跃吗?

  • your values, probably go for that one.

    疯了吗? 第二点是国际化

  • But realistically, daily active users

    克服国际化障碍

  • fairly correlated to monthly active users.

    当我们开始国际化时

  • We could've gone with either one.

    有两件事我们做得很好

  • Amount of content shared, also very correlated to

    第一是 尽管我们进入得晚

  • how many users there are because, guess what,

    进入得晚会压力山大

  • you add a user, they share content.

    我们规划好 一步步地来

  • So, lots of things end up being correlated.

    我们由慢而快 步步为营

  • Pick the one that fits with you and

    ppt上有个链接

  • that you know you're gonna be able to stick with for

    是Naomi的视频 从中可以了解到

  • a long time, but have a north star.

    我们抢占市场的整个过程

  • Have a north star and know the magic moment that when

    我们做的就是把需要翻译的字符串提取出来

  • a user experiences that, they will deliver on that

    通过翻译脚本--

  • metric for you on the north star, and then think about

    翻译提取脚本

  • the marginal user, don't think about yourself.

    然后 我们创建了翻译论坛

  • Those are, I think, the really important points when

    我们不仅有

  • you're operating for growth.

    专业翻译人员翻译网站

  • Everything has to come from the top.

    所有的用户也帮助我们进行翻译

  • So the last area here is tactics.

    12个小时 就将法语版Facebook翻译完成了

  • And my hope was that I could hit a few of these and then

    目前 Facebook已有

  • I've got a list of tactics I wanna go through that

    104种语言版本

  • I'm better talking with a whiteboard and whatever on,

    其中70种是由翻译论坛制作的

  • but you can ask me questions as I'm going through on

    我们努力开发产品

  • those about how they work and what goes better.

    使我们得以扩张

  • But the important tactics that you need to think about

    另一件事是 我们对不同语言版本的排序也是对的

  • this is great guy by the way,

    当时的四大语言是

  • Tom Fishburne, he lives, he lives in the Bay Area and

    法语 意大利语 德语 西班牙语

  • he does these really cynical cartoons that I love.

    还有汉语 不过Facebook在中国是被禁的

  • So let's say you found your,

    我们专攻法语 意大利语 德语 西班牙语版本

  • your niche market that you're gonna have

    看这个语言分布图

  • a monopoly on inside the mousetrap market.

    意大利语不在其中了

  • It's a silenced mousetrap that's sitting under beds so

    法语和德语有下滑之势

  • that if the mice come to your bed overnight,

    去年印度的Facebook用户

  • like they can be killed without waking you up, so

    增加了三倍

  • that's your niche market.

    只顾当下是

  • And your, your mousetrap is better than anybody else for

    很容易犯得一个错误

  • that market.

    其他很多社交网站都犯过

  • What typically happens in Silicon Valley is,

    我们建立了一个可扩展的翻译平台

  • everyone think mar, thinks marketers are useless.

    使我们能攻下所有语言

  • Like I thought marketers were useless when I

    我们已为未来做好准备

  • was a physics student, so I'm

    关于我们在语言版本方面的发展方向

  • sure as engineering students you must thing we're awful,

    在印度召开的Internet.org峰会上

  • awful people who aren't useful to have around.

    可见一斑

  • Like, build it and they will come.

    在此峰会上会涉及相关事宜

  • That is something that is very much the mantra in

    关于策略

  • the Valley and I don't believe it's true.

    我想讲一下ppt上这些内容

  • I believe you actually have to work.

    如果大家有什麼问题

  • There's a good article, again, in the lecture page,

    欢迎提问

  • from interviewing Ben Silvermann where he

    这个话题比较自由

  • talks about how the growth of

    这些策略很有意思 第一点是病毒营销

  • Pinterest was driven by marketing.

    我想从两个方面来介绍

  • It's a really good article to read into.

    Adam Penenberg写过一本很有名的书 在这里

  • I'm biased, of course.

    叫做《病毒循环》

  • So, the first tactic I

    书中介绍了许多通过病毒营销

  • want to talk about is internationalization.

    从而获得增长的公司

  • Facebook internationalized too late.

    如果大家对此感兴趣

  • Sheryl said it broadly in public and

    我强烈建议大家读一读这本书

  • I definitely agree with that.

    《奥格威谈广告》也很好

  • One of the biggest barriers to our long term growth and

    在第7章 有个例子 当不知如何宣传自己的万能胶时

  • one of the biggest things we have to deal with was

    用万能胶把车黏在广告牌上

  • all the countries where there were clones.

    那人们肯定会买你的万能胶啦 哈哈~

  • Famously Studeveldt said had Fakebook.css in their,

    他给出了很多

  • in their HTML.

    这样很有创意的小技巧

  • And there were a ton of sites like that out there,

    这个人已经去世20年了

  • whether it was Studeveldt site as a clear clone,

    但我仍旧让每个加入我团队的人

  • Vkontakte, Mixi, Cyworld, Orkut, there were all these

    去读这两本书

  • different social networks around the world that

    继续讲病毒营销

  • grew up while Facebook was focused on the US.

    在我加入Facebook的时候

  • And so internationalizing was an important barrier we

    Sean Park给了我们一个模型

  • needed to knock down, and knocking down barriers is

    从以下三个方面来考虑

  • often a very important to think about for growth.

    产品的病毒式营销

  • Facebook started off as college only.

    首先是有效载荷

  • So every college that it

    病毒炸弹一次能命中多少人?

  • was launched in was knocking down a barrier.

    然后是-- 当时他用的词很精辟 我有点忘了

  • When Facebook expanded beyond colleges to

    第二个是转化率 第三个是频率

  • high schools I wasn't at the company, but that was a

    有效载荷 转化率 频率 就是这个顺序吧

  • company shaking moment where people questioned whether or

    有效载荷是指一次能命中多少人

  • not Facebook could actually survive,

    频率是指每次轰炸能命中他们多少次

  • the culture of the site could survive.

    转化率是能以多大比例转化成--

  • Then expanding from high schools to everyone,

    这样你就能知道产品是如何进行病毒营销的了

  • that was like, just before I joined and

    Hotmail就是

  • that was a shocking moment and

    一个典型的病毒营销的例子

  • that spurred the growth on to 50 million and

    Hotmail刚建立的时候

  • then we hit a brick wall.

    已经有很多电子邮件公司获得了投资

  • And when we hit that brick wall that was

    并在传统广告上面

  • the point when a lot of existential questions were

    投入了很多钱

  • being asked inside Facebook about whether any social

    大家知道Hotmail病毒营销的经过吗?

  • network could ever get to more than 100 million users.

    很好 有新同学

  • Which sounds stupid now, but

    知道的几个同学可能会对下面的内容感到无聊

  • at the time no one had ever achieved it.

    Hotmail刚建立那会儿

  • Everyone had kind of tapped out between 50 and

    人们不能免费使用电子邮件

  • 100 million users and

    必须依靠网络服务器提供者(ISP)

  • we were worried that it wasn't possible.

    Hotmail和一些其他公司

  • And that was the point at

    可以让用户在任何地点使用电子邮件

  • which the growth team got set up.

    可以在图书馆 学校或任何地方的网络上

  • Chimoff brought a whole bunch of us together.

    接入Hotmail

  • It was he said very publicly that he wanted to fire me on

    这对于需要使用电子邮件的人来说

  • multiple occasions, and he probably should have done.

    有巨大吸引力

  • But, without Chimoff I

    很多公司花了大价钱

  • think none of us would have stayed at the company.

    在电视上 广告牌上

  • We were a really weird bunch of people, but

    报纸上

  • it worked out.

    Yahoo网站等媒介上

  • And, the two things we did, I think, that really,

    打了无数广告

  • really drove growth initially, was number one,

    但Hotmail没有那麼多资金

  • we focused on that ten friends in 14 days and

    因此他们不得不摸索新的广告方式

  • getting users to the magic moment.

    他们的方法是

  • And that was something Zuck drove,

    在每封邮件的下面加一个小的链接

  • cuz we were all stuck in analysis paralysis,

    “发送自Hotmail 点此获取免费邮箱”

  • saying is it causation, is it correlation.

    有趣的是 这样做的有效载荷是很低的

  • Zuck was like, you really think if no one

    因此你一次只能发给一个人

  • gets a friend that they'll be active on Facebook?

    不会有很大的有效载荷

  • Are you crazy?

    或许你可以发送大量的垃圾邮件

  • The second thing was internationalization.

    但估计很多人不会去点

  • It was knocking down another barrier.

    频率很高

  • And when we launched it, I think there were

    因为你可能每天给同一个人发很多信

  • two things that we did really well.

    也就是说

  • Number one was, even though we were late, and

    你可以不断给他们发送相同的链接

  • we were stressed about being late,

    从而使他们加深印象

  • we took the time to build it in a scalable way.

    转化率应该也很高

  • We moved slow to move fast.

    因为人们不喜欢受制于ISP

  • And you can actually read,

    因此Hotmail的病毒效应十分强大

  • hear the full story from Naomi in one of

    因为它的频率和转化率非常高

  • the videos linked from the lecture page.

    另一个例子是Paypal

  • But what we did was we wrapped all the strings in

    Paypal很有趣 它有两种用户

  • the site in FPT which our translation script, and

    买家和卖家

  • then, or translation extraction script, and then,

    关于Paypal另一件有趣的事情是

  • we created the community translation platform.

    它是通过eBay进行病毒式增长的

  • So that we didn't just have

    病毒营销的手段各种各样

  • professional translators translating a site we

    Paypal所用的方法 病毒性就不怎麼明显

  • could have all of our users translating a site.

    如果买家对一个卖家说

  • And we got French translated in 12 hours, but

    我现在要用Paypal给你付钱

  • we managed to get to this day we are now at

    转化率一定是非常高的

  • 104 languages translated by Facebook for Facebook.

    但频率和有效载荷就比较低了 但Paypal做了这麼一件事

  • 80 plus 70 of those are translated by the community.

    当你邀请朋友注册时

  • And we took the time to

    可以从Paypal那里得到金钱奖励

  • build something that would enable us to scale.

    他们就是这样从买家的角度传播病毒

  • The other thing is we

    他们不必从卖家这里入手

  • prioritized the right languages.

    因为如果买家对卖家说 我要用Paypal给你付钱

  • So back then the right languages,

    卖家肯定没什麼意见

  • the big four languages were French, Italian, German and

    病毒都是从买家这边传播的

  • Spanish, figs and Chinese, but

    因为Paypal说了 邀请别人注册 就给10块钱

  • we were blocked in China.

    为什麼不邀请呢?

  • >> So we focused on French, Italian, German,

    因此病毒得以形成

  • and Spanish.

    病毒得以传播是因为

  • Now look at that list,

    买家和买家两方面的转化率都非常高

  • that's today's distribution of languages.

    而不是因为有效载荷和频率高 明白了吗?

  • Italian isn't on the list anymore.

    因此这是判断一个产品是否具有病毒效应的

  • French and German are about to fall off.

    很好的方法

  • In the last year we quadrupled the number of

    Facebook不是通过电子邮件转发等方式传播病毒

  • people on Facebook in Hindi, quadrupled.

    Facebook仅仅依靠口碑传播

  • And so building for

    因为对于Paypal和Hotmail来说

  • where the world is today, is an easy mistake to make and

    有趣的事情是

  • it's what a lot of the other social networks did.

    病毒由使用者向未使用者通过发送邮件而传播

  • We built a scalable translation infrastructure

    但在Facebook上 你没有办法去联系

  • that actually enabled us to attack all of the languages,

    不使用它的人

  • so we can be ready for

    大家都认为Facebook通过病毒营销而取得成功

  • where the future is going to, is gonna be.

    但实际上我们不是这麼增长的

  • And you'll probably be able to see some stuff

    Facebook病毒靠口碑传播

  • from our Internet.org Summit in India about where we

    因为这个产品很棒

  • want to go with language translations later today,

    大家都想要告诉朋友一起来玩

  • cuz I think they're talking about that stuff there.

    大家感觉怎麼样?有趣吗? 有问题 很好 请讲

  • So these are the tactics I wanna go through now, and

    上面两个例子中 您说它们的有效载荷

  • I'll stick with the white board for that stuff.

    都比较低

  • But I'd really encourage you guys as I go through these,

    但随着后续的发展

  • if you've got any questions about them let me know.

    或者类似的事情发生以后

  • I think this should be like,

    当有更多的人

  • a more free form time anyway.

    通过Hotmail发送邮件以后

  • But I think some these

    有效载荷会不会也随之不断增加?

  • tactics are quite interesting.

    好 这个问题是说

  • So Virality.

    开始阶段低有效载荷是可以理解的

  • Yes, I think there are two ways to look at virality.

    但后来随着人们发送的邮件越来越多

  • There's a great book whoops, the book on the right here,

    有效载荷会不会增大?

  • by Adam Penenberg, Viral Loop,

    我想 首先你要知道一点

  • goes through a bunch of case studies of companies that

    我们只给一小群人发邮件

  • have grown through viral marketing.

    相比于现有的巨大的病毒传播机制来说

  • And I strongly encourage you, if

    比如说导入某人完整的通讯录

  • you're interested in viral marketing, to get that book.

    全选

  • I think Ogilvy on Advertising's great as well

    并给每个人发一个邮件

  • because chapter seven he's like if you can't think of

    或者给Facebook上每个人的朋友都发送消息

  • anything else stick a car to a billboard with

    相比于上述方式 Hotmail实际的有效载荷是很小的

  • super glue and people will buy your super glue.

    即使你给每个联系人发邮件的频率都很高

  • And he's got some really,

    同时你也得考虑每封信发出去以后

  • he's got some really good creative tips in there.

    真正会看这个链接的有多少人

  • >> Like the, the guy's been dead 20 years and I think he

    但不管怎麼说 你说的是对的 随着用户的增加

  • still, I, I buy everyone on my team gets both of these

    他们会发出更多的邮件

  • books when they start on my team.

    也就会吸引更多的人使用Hotmail

  • So virality.

    产品也就会变得越来越成功

  • So Sean Park has this model that he taught or he

    因此你说的没错 请讲

  • told us about when he, when, when I joined Facebook.

    转化的契机是不是很重要?

  • Which is to think about virality for

    比如有时点击一下就能注册

  • a product in terms of three things.

    省去了很多麻烦

  • First is payload.

    完全同意 这就是-- 啊 抱歉

  • So how many people can you hit with any

    问题是转化契机是不是很重要 比如在Hotmail上

  • given viral blast?

    你点击一下就能注册了

  • Second, he had cooler words for

    但广告打在广告牌上的话

  • these, I'm not quite as cool.

    你就必须记下网址

  • Second is conversion rate, and third is frequency.

    在浏览器中敲上去 找到并点击注册按钮 才能完成注册

  • Payload frequency and

    是的 这些步骤能省则省

  • conversion rate, whatever, that order.

    从线下广告到线上广告

  • So, how many people can you hit at once is payload.

    就可以省去很多麻烦

  • How many times can you hit them per blast is frequency.

    我完全同意这个观点 再回答一个 后面的同学

  • And what are they gonna convert at?

    频率和转化率有关联吗?

  • And that gives you

    问题是频率和转化率有关联吗 当然

  • a fundamental idea of how viral a product is.

    如果你用同样的-- 嗯 我复述过问题了

  • So Hotmail is like, the canonical example of

    频率和转化率有关联吗

  • brilliant viral marketing, right?

    如果你不断给某人发同样的邮件

  • Back when Hotmail launched,

    同样的横幅广告 不厌其烦

  • there were a bunch of mail companies that had

    这是网络营销的基本原则之一

  • been funded and they were throwing huge amounts of

    在任何领域都适用

  • money at traditional advertising.

    如果你给某人不断发重复的Facebook广告

  • How many people know the Hotmail story, of virality?

    你发的次数越多

  • Awesome, great, new audience, sorry.

    他越不可能点

  • Those two or three people will be bored.

    这就是创意枯竭带来的负面效应

  • But Hotmail back in, back at that time.

    在Facebook上 你必须滚动播放不同的广告

  • People couldn't get free email clients,

    横幅广告和信息流也一样

  • they had to be tied to their ISP.

    如果你在信息流上第50次看到一个智力题

  • And Hotmail and a few other companies launched and

    你肯定不会点进去

  • their clients were available wherever you went.

    如果你前49次都没点的话

  • You could log in via library internet or whatever,

    第50次肯定也不会

  • school internet, and be able to get access to that.

    对于电子邮件也是一样

  • Which was a really big value proposition for

    如果你不断

  • everyone, who wanted to access it.

    给别人通过邮件发送邀请链接

  • Most of the companies, went out there and

    或者不断发送

  • did big TV campaigns and billboard campaigns and

    底部带有Hotmail链接的邮件 客户还是不买账

  • newspaper campaigns and

    Paypal则不同 因为为了交易的顺利进行 不得不注册

  • things like that forced a lot of advertising of Yahoo,

    因此 答案是肯定的 转化率会降低

  • all of those things.

    你给某人发送的消息越多

  • But the Hotmail team didn't have as much funding, and so

    转化率越低

  • they had to scrabble around to figure out how to do it.

    这是适用于任何网络营销的基本准则

  • So, what they did was add that little link at

    好了 就讲到这儿

  • the bottom of every email that said,

    看待病毒营销的另一种角度

  • sent from Hotmail, get your free email here.

    我认为很棒 这是Ed提出来的

  • Now, the interesting thing is that meant

    Ed目前在Uber领导着一个增长团队

  • the payload was low.

    以前他是Facebook增长团队的一员

  • Right, you email one person at a time,

    他是斯坦福的工商管理硕士

  • not necessarily gonna have a huge payload.

    他也讲过关于病毒营销的类似课程

  • Maybe you send around some of those viral spam emails.

    他和同学们制定了很多病毒式营销策略

  • But then I'm not sure I'll click on your link.

    对此很多新闻都报道了

  • The frequency is high, though because you're

    非常不错 关于Uber有趣的一点是

  • emailing the same people over and over and over.

    如果你看下他们的增长团队

  • Which means you're gonna hit them once,

    他们对于司机非常关注

  • twice, three times a day with that same link and

    因为这也是个买卖双方的市场 他们需要司机

  • really move up the impressions.

    这是他们团队很大的一个关注点

  • And the conversion rate was also very high because

    在他们公司有着世界上最好的

  • people didn't like being tied to their ISP email.

    病毒式营销人员

  • And so Hotmail ended up being

    那麼在病毒营销中 要让用户导入他的联系人

  • extremely viral because it had high frequency and

    问题是

  • high conversion rates.

    在这些联系人中 你能够给多少人发送链接?

  • Another example is PayPal.

    给多少人发? 然后是多少人会点击链接?

  • PayPal, PayPal is interesting because PayPal

    也许这中间也可以分解成几步

  • has two sites to it.

    多少人会打开 多少人会点击 之类的

  • PayPal has the buyer and the seller site.

    多少人点击 多少人注册 这些人中又有多少会再导入自己的联系人

  • The other thing that's interesting about PayPal is

    本质上说 就是需要人们在网站注册

  • its mechanism for viral growth was eBay.

    并导入其联系人

  • And so you can use all kinds of things for

    你想让注册的人给他们所有的联系人都发送邀请链接

  • virality that may not look necessarily obviously viral.

    而不是仅仅给其中一个人发

  • So PayPal, if you sent money,

    然后你希望这其中有一部分点击了邀请链接

  • if you said to a seller, I am going to send you money.

    又有一部分注册了

  • Like, I can't think of a higher conversion rate.

    如果你把每个节点的百分比相乘

  • Frequency was low, payload was low, but

    那麼实际上--

  • PayPal did this thing, where they gave away money when

    哦 这里不是个百分比 这是个数

  • you got your friends to sign up for PayPal, and

    如果你把这些乘起来

  • so that's how they went viral on the consumer side.

    就得到了整个过程的增殖系数

  • They didn't have to do that for sellers,

    那麼假设每个人平均发送

  • because if I said I'm gonna send you money via this,

    100个邀请链接

  • you will take that.

    抱歉 错了

  • And even on the consumer side they

    假设每个人平均邀请了100个人

  • went viral because someone said sign up for

    其中10%的人点击了链接 那麼就剩下10个人了

  • this thing and you'll get 10 bucks.

    然后我们假设有50%的人注册了 还剩下5个人

  • Why wouldn't you?

    接着这5个人中的10%到20%会继续导入其联系人

  • So, they were able to go viral, but

    结果就是0.5到1个人 那麼增殖系数就在0.5到1之间

  • in both cases it was because their conversion rate was

    这就不能称为病毒式传播

  • incredibly high on the buyer and the seller side.

    视频分享应用Viddy现在 或者说以前

  • No.

    对病毒式营销就很在行

  • Because their payload and frequency was high.

    他们的增殖系数大于1

  • Makes sense?

    让增殖系数达到1以上是完全可以做到的

  • So this is a really good way to look at virality if

    所以如果

  • you wanna say, is this product viral?

    你的用户存留不高

  • Facebook was not viral via email sharing or

    病毒式营销就意义不大

  • anything like that.

    看看你的整个邀请流程

  • Facebook was purely viral by a word of mouth.

    需要导入哪些联系人

  • Because the interesting thing about PayPal and

    每个用户给多少人发邀请呢?

  • Hotmail Is to use them the first person had to

    多少人会打开链接呢?

  • send an email to someone who wasn't on the service.

    多少人会在我的网站注册 多少人会再去导入他们的联系人

  • With Facebook there's no

    据此 就可以算出自己的增殖系数

  • native way to contact people who aren't on the service.

    当然 首先要考虑的还是用户存留

  • Everyone thinks of Facebook as viral marketing success,

    而不是病毒营销

  • and that's actually, not how it grew.

    只有当注册的人中很大一部分都能

  • It was word of mouth virality, because it was an

    留在你的产品上的时候 再考虑病毒营销

  • awesome product you wanted to tell your friends about.

    好 我们还要讲点别的

  • How's everyone doing?

    搜索引擎优化 电子邮件 短信和推送通知

  • Is this interesting?

    在做收索引擎优化时 有三件事需要考虑

  • Great, question, yes.

    第一个是关键词搜索 人们总是做不好这件事

  • >> So when you're talking about this low pay

    我之前讲过 我创立了一个鸡尾酒网站

  • load in both of the examples.

    我用了一年时间使得“调制鸡尾酒”这个词的排名提高

  • In the later rounds as this sort of campaign or

    因为在英国搜索“调制鸡尾酒”的人非常少

  • whatever you want to call it gets going.

    一个月差不多也就500人左右 我垄断了这个搜索词 太棒了

  • Aren't you going to have a much higher pay load as

    我的网站一个月有400次访问 非常令人吃惊

  • more and more people are sending Hotmail] to more and

    在英国 人人都会搜索“鸡尾酒配方”

  • more folks, and that way your pay load grows and

    但在最大的市场美国

  • grows and grows?

    大家搜索的则是“饮品配方”

  • So, the question is in the first round it

    因此我对错误的词进行了搜索优化

  • makes sense that it has a low pay load, but

    因此在你做优化之前

  • in later rounds, aren't you gonna have higher pay

    一定要做好调查

  • loads as people send more and more and more emails.

    调查包括人们搜索的何种内容与你的网站相关

  • I guess in my head, well, first and

    以及搜索的人数

  • foremost, I think you actually,

    有多少人也在争取这些关键词的优化排名

  • only send emails to a small number of people.

    对你的价值有多少

  • So, compared to like the massive viral engines that

    供给 需求和价值 就是简单的经济学原理

  • exist today,

    因此在做关键词搜索的时候

  • where you import someone's entire contact book.

    弄清楚你需要对什麼关键词进行搜索优化

  • And send them all.

    有很多好的工具可以帮助你做到这一点

  • Send them all an email, or

    不得不承认 做的最好的是谷歌的关键词规划工具

  • where you post to everyone's friends on Facebook.

    叫做AdWords(关键词竞价广告)

  • The actual payloads are still very small.

    关键词选好以后 接下来最重要的事情就是链接

  • Even if it's everyone that

    网页排名是所有搜索引擎优化的目的

  • you email on a frequent basis you hit.

    谷歌会根据链接的权威性进行排名

  • I'm also thinking really per email sent out.

    不过现在谷歌也在算法中加入了一些其他的东西

  • How many people are on it?

    比如人们是否搜索你的网站

  • But it's a fair point, like yeah, as more people get on,

    或者链接到你的网站的锚文本在网上的分布情况

  • get on Hotmail they'll send more emails,

    也会被考虑进来

  • as more people use email.

    但如果你滥用锚文本 谷歌会检测出来 当成垃圾对待

  • The product actually, grows more and more successfully.

    把白底白字的关键词放在网页下方不明显的位置

  • So, that's a fair point.

    这招已经不管用了

  • Go for it.

    最重要的是让权威性的网站链接你的网页

  • >> Doesn't, like, point of conversion also matter?

    因为这样可以提高你在谷歌的网页排名

  • So, like, when just click and sign up.

    之后你也要把自己网站的各个页面也相互链接

  • But if you skip the goal ad it's

    使各个网页都能追溯到权威网站 在我加入之前

  • >> Completely agree,

    Facebook在07年9月就开始做SEO相关事宜

  • that's why, oh I'm sorry.

    我是07年11月加入Facebook的

  • Doesn't point to conversion matters as well, so

    这个项目开始时

  • on Hotmail, you click to sign up, but on a billboard

    做了SEO的网页

  • you have to remember that the URL goes to the website,

    并没有吸引多少流量

  • type it in, find the registration button,

    我去看了一下发现

  • click register and sign up.

    找到这些页面的唯一方式是

  • Yes.

    点击网页下面 页脚中的“关于”链接

  • Yes, anything you can do to move friction out of

    点击其中一个博客文章

  • the flow.

    点击其中一个作者

  • And going from an offline ad to an online ad removes huge

    通过他们的朋友进而找出所有的朋友

  • amounts of frictions from the flow.

    结果就是 谷歌认为网站把这些页面埋藏的很深

  • Obviously.

    它们应该没什麼价值 我们也不用对它们进行排名

  • Totally agree with that.

    我们做了一点改变

  • One more at the back.

    加了一个目录页

  • >> Aren't frequency and conversion related?

    这样谷歌就能快速找到我们网站的所有页面

  • >> Aren't frequency and conversion rate related?

    通过SEO 我们的流量提高了100倍

  • Absolutely.

    只是做了这样一个很小的内部链接改变

  • If you hit someone with the same promotion,

    会带来翻天覆地的变化

  • I repeated that.

    最后还有些东西来不及讲了

  • Aren't frequency and conversion rate related?

    XML网站地图 以及给你的网站起个好名字

  • If you hit someone with the same email over and over and

    这些内容都在网上 你们可以回去自己看

  • over again.

    我就讲到这了 因为还有些问题要回答

  • All the same banner ads, this is one of the things

    谁还有问题? 请讲

  • that's fundamental about online marketing.

    想继续听一下电子邮件方面的内容

  • The same rules apply to every channel.

    好 我们再讲下电子邮件

  • If you hit someone with the same Facebook ad over, and

    我认为邮件在25岁以下人群中如死水

  • over, and over, the more times you

    年轻人不怎麼用邮箱

  • hit them with the same ad the less they'll click.

    他们用WhatsApp SMS Snapchat和Facebook

  • That's why we have creative exhaustion you have to

    他们不用邮箱

  • rotate creatives on Facebook.

    如果目标人群是年长者 邮件挺好的

  • Same with banner ads, same with news feed stories.

    总体而言 邮件的效果还是不错的

  • The fiftieth time you see the IQ story in

    但是实际上 邮件不适合青少年

  • your news feed, you are not gonna click on it.

    以及大学生

  • If you haven't clicked on the 49 before,

    你们用多少即时通信软件

  • you're not gonna click on the 50th.

    用多少邮件 自己很清楚

  • The same is absolutely true with these emails.

    你们这些大学生可能用邮件还算多的

  • So, if you send the same email over and

    因为你们在硅谷这

  • over and over to people for an invite.

    用邮件进行推送时要考虑一下实际情况

  • Or if you send the same little link at

    邮件 短信以及推送通知异曲同工

  • the bottom over and over and over to people for Hotmail.

    它们都有局限性

  • Or I mean the PayPal one's

    要想最先完成 首先必须完成

  • different because people just signed up.

    你的邮件要发到用户的收件箱

  • But yes, you will get lower conversion rate.

    如果你发大量的垃圾邮件 你的IP就会被拉入黑名单

  • And the more you hit someone with

    如果你使用公共服务器发送垃圾邮件

  • the same message the less they convert.

    哦 不对 你发送的是正常的邮件

  • Is fundamental across every online marketing channel,

    而别人用同样的服务器发送垃圾邮件

  • every online marketing channel, cool.

    你发的邮件会经常进入垃圾邮件箱

  • Second way, to look at virality,

    客户根本不会看你的邮件

  • which I think is awesome, is by this guy Ed.

    你的邮件会被封杀或退回

  • And Ed runs the growth team at Uber now,

    使用邮件 这些事情需要注意

  • he was at the growth team at Facebook.

    如果你收反馈和发消息邮件用的是同一个邮件服务器

  • And he was a Stanford MBA student, and

    会出现400或500系列的错误

  • did a class similar to this,

    你不得不接受

  • where they talked about virility.

    如果有收件人退回了你的邮件

  • And they all went and built viral products.

    再试一两次 如果还是行不通 就罢手吧

  • And there was a bunch of press about that actually.

    因为 一旦你被认定是发骚扰邮件

  • And these brilliance of these stuff.

    邮件公司会把你列为垃圾邮件发送者 你就难以翻身了

  • The interesting thing about Uber.

    一旦你被抓住 列入了Spamhaus中

  • If you look at there growth team

    你就难以翻身了

  • they're incredibly focused on drivers.

    这点对于邮件推送很重要

  • Because it's a two

    你要文明使用邮件

  • sided market place they need drivers.

    使用邮件做正当的事

  • That's a huge, huge chunk of their focus as a team.

    因为你要从长远角度考虑 持续推送消息

  • Even they've got like probably the best viral guy

    上述内容同样适用于推送通知和短信

  • in the world at the company.

    使用短信的话 你可以通过灰色手段

  • So, with virality,

    购买短信包 从事此行当的人将手机和电脑绑定

  • you get someone to contact import, let's say.

    使用电脑发送短信

  • Then the question is,

    这样做一段时间还行 不过最终会弄砸

  • how many of those people do you get to send imports?

    我见过很多公司犯过这样的错误

  • Then the question is, to how many people?

    他们认为通过这样的手段能获取增长

  • Then, how many click?

    如果你发送的邮件 短信或是推送到不了用户手里

  • And you can put extra steps in this.

    一切都是白费功夫

  • You could put how many open, how many click, whatever.

    如果给活跃用户发垃圾通知

  • How many click, how many sign up.

    这跟我前面说的有点不同

  • And then how many of those import.

    如果给活跃用户发垃圾通知

  • So essentially, you want people who sign up to

    告知他们并不关心的东西

  • your site, to import their contacts.

    这样做会逼着他们退出通知

  • You want to then get them to send an invite to all of

    如果没法取消通知的话

  • those contacts.

    他们就会开始屏蔽你

  • You want to get.

    一旦他们退订了你的推送通知

  • It to all of those contacts, not just one of them.

    你就不能再给他们发推送了

  • Then you want to get a percentage of those to

    一旦他们退订

  • click, and a percentage of those to sign up.

    很难让他们再重订

  • If you multiply out the percents at every point in

    使用邮件 短信以及推送通知

  • this, this is essentially,

    首先要考虑的是 要送到用户手上

  • where well this isn't a percent, this is a number.

    其次要考虑 点击率

  • If you multiply those out,

    你要写什麼样吸引人的标题

  • that's essentially, the point where you

    用户才会打开你的邮件

  • get to the question of what is the k factor.

    用户浏览你的邮件时 怎麼样让他们点回到你的网站呢

  • So, if you have, when someone imports if on

    我认为几乎所有的营销邮件都是垃圾邮件

  • average they send invites to 100 people.

    定期通讯太傻了

  • Sorry doing that wrong, let's say 100

    不要发定期通讯

  • people get an invite per person who imports.

    你给所有人发的都是一样的东西

  • And then of those 10% click.

    其中有人刚刚注册了

  • That gets you to 10.

    有人用了3年了

  • And then, of those, let's say, 50% sign up.

    这些人需要一样的消息吗? 必然不是啊

  • That gets you to 5.

    最有效的方法是推送消息

  • And then, of those,

    推送什麼消息呢? 推送给用户什麼呢?

  • only 10 to 20% actually, subsequently import.

    关于这点 我们经常犯错

  • You're gonna be at a point where you're at 0.5 to 1 as

    作为Facebook用户 我不希望每次被点赞

  • your K factor.

    都收到通知 因为我有很多好友

  • And you're gonna not be viral.

    我会收到很多次“赞”

  • So, a lot of things like Vidi are very good at

    但是对于新用户而言

  • pumping, or were very good at pumping out stories.

    第一次被点赞就是激动时刻

  • They got the cave factor over one, and it's perfectly

    想方设法为这些人推送消息

  • doable to get the cave factor over one, but

    增加邮件 短信

  • if you have something that doesn't have high retention

    以及推送通知的点击率

  • on the back end then it doesn't really matter.

    我们只为活跃度低的用户推送

  • So, you should look at your invite flow and

    这些人如果没有消息的话 很可能就不再登录了

  • say, what is my equivalent import?

    这样我们就做到了对症下药

  • How many people, per import, are invites sent to?

    这是很好的体验 想一想

  • How many of those receive clicks?

    在使用邮件 短信和通知进行推送前

  • How many of those convert to my site?

    先想想要推送什麼内容 这是要考虑的第一点

  • How many of those then import?

    要考虑的第二点

  • To get an idea of your k factor.

    举办什麼样的推广活动呢?

  • But the really,

    eBay首次开通跨境交易

  • important thing is still to think about retention, and

    是最好的一次推广活动

  • not to think about virality.

    点击率非常高

  • And only do this after you have a large

    非常棒

  • number of people retained on your product per person

    因为这个活动顺应了

  • who signs up.

    天时地利人和

  • So, couple more things we were gonna touch on.

    要有推广策略

  • SEO, email, SMS and push notifications.

    这是最重要的事

  • So, in SEO,

    专注于消息推送

  • there are three things you need to think about.

    使用邮件 短信和推送通知等途径 不限于此

  • First one is keyword research.

    快下课了

  • People do this badly all the time.

    我最后讲一点

  • So I launched this cocktail site that I

    如果你们有问题 欢迎联系我

  • talked to you about.

    但如果邮件进入垃圾箱 我就没办法了

  • I spent a year optimizing it to rank for

    我们有很好的过滤机制

  • the word cocktail making.

    我最爱的名言是 巴顿将军的一句话

  • Turns out in the UK no one searches for

    被大家说烂了 很疯狂 却很棒

  • cocktail making.

    “今日认真执行的好计划

  • About 500 people a month.

    胜于明日的完美计划”

  • I dominated that search term.

    Chamath灌输给我们的一点是

  • It was awesome.

    Harvey灌输给我们的是

  • >> I got 400 visitors a month.

    Mark灌输给整个Facebook的是:

  • It was amazing.

    行动迅速 不要害怕打破常规

  • Everyone searches for cocktail recipes In the UK.

    如果你能比别人多做一些实验

  • And in the US, which is the biggest market,

    如果你对增长更加渴望

  • everyone searches for drink recipes.

    如果你为增加用户奋战到底

  • So I optimize for the wrong word.

    你夙兴夜寐地增加用户

  • So you've gotta do

    做实验 得数据

  • your research first about what you're gonna go after.

    反反复复地做

  • So, research consists of what do people search for

    终会快速增长

  • that's related to your sites, how many people

    Mark说 我们之所以能成功

  • search for it, how many other people are ranking for

    是因为我们对成功更渴望 我赞同这点

  • it, and how valuable is it for you.

    我们工作非常努力

  • Supply, demands and value.

    我们并非智商超群

  • Simple economics I guess.

    我们没有丰富的经验

  • So you do your keyword research.

    我们只是努力工作 快速执行

  • You figure out which keywords you

    我强烈建议大家也这麼干 选择权在你手里 谢谢

  • want to rank for.

  • There are great tools out there to

  • enable you to do that.

  • Honestly the best is quite often the Google AdWords,

  • keyword planner tool.

  • Really.

  • Once you've done, that

  • the next most important thing is links.

  • So, page rank is how all of SEO is essentially,

  • is driven and Google is based on authority.

  • Now there's a lot of other things in Google's

  • algorithm now like do people search for your website?

  • There's a lot stuff about the distribution of what

  • the anchor text is.

  • That's send to your site.

  • So, if you abuse it and

  • spam it they can pop up with spam.

  • White on a white background five pages below the fold

  • doesn't work anymore.

  • But, the single most important thing is to

  • get valuable links from

  • high authority websites future ranking Google.

  • Most important thing.

  • Then you need to distribute that log inside your site,

  • by internally linking effectively.

  • And when I joined Facebook.

  • We'd launched SEO in September 2007,

  • which was before I joined.

  • I joined November 2007.

  • And we'd launched it, and we were getting no traffic from

  • the pages we'd launched, public user profiles.

  • So, when I went in and looked at it.

  • The only way you could get to any public user

  • profile was to click on the footer of the page, for

  • the about link.

  • Then click on one of the blog articles,

  • then click on one of the authors, and then spider out

  • through their friends to get to all their friends.

  • Turns out that,

  • Google was like they buried these papers,

  • they're not very valuable, and

  • we're not going to rank them.

  • We made one change.

  • We added a directory so that Google could quickly get to

  • every page on the site.

  • And we 100 xd SEO traffic.

  • Very, very simple change drove a lot of

  • upside about distributing the link love internally.

  • And then the last thing is there's a bunch of

  • table stakes stuff, HML sitemaps,

  • making sure you have the right headers, it's all

  • covered really well online for what you wanna do.

  • I'm gonna stop now and make sure, cuz we have

  • a few questions, but, what other questions are there?

  • Go for it.

  • >> We're going to email actually,.

  • >> Let's go into email.

  • Okay great.

  • Email is dead for people under 25 in my opinion.

  • Right? Young people don't

  • use email.

  • They use WhatsApp, they use SMS,

  • they use Snapchat, they use Facebook.

  • They don't use email.

  • If you're targeting an older audience, email is,

  • pretty successful.

  • Email still works for distribution, but

  • realistically, email is not that great for

  • teenagers, especially, and even people at university.

  • You know, how much you use instant messaging apps and

  • how little you use email.

  • And you guys are probably,

  • on the high end of the scale for email,

  • because you're in Silicon Valley.

  • That being said, on email the things to think about.

  • Email, SMS, and

  • push notifications all behave the same way.

  • They all have questions of deliverability.

  • So to finish first, first you have to finish.

  • Your email has to get to someones inbox.

  • So if you send a lot of spam and

  • you end up with dirty IP's, or you send spam from

  • shared servers where other people are.

  • Or if you send email notifications, from shared

  • servers where other people are sending spam from,

  • you are gonna end up being put in the spam folder

  • consistently, and your email will fail completely.

  • You may end up, being blocked and

  • have your email bounce.

  • There's a lot of

  • stuff around email where you have to look.

  • When you receive feedback from the servers you

  • are sending email too.

  • 500 series errors versus 400 series errors,

  • you have to be respectful of how those are handled.

  • If someone gives you a hard bounce, retry once or

  • twice and, then stop trying.

  • Because if you are someone who abuses people's inboxes,

  • the email companies spam folder you and

  • it's very hard to get out.

  • If you get caught, on a Spamhaus link, or

  • anything like that, it's very hard to get out.

  • It's really important with email,

  • that you are a high-class citizen,

  • that you do good work with email because you want to

  • have deliverability for the long run.

  • That counts for push notifications and SMS2.

  • With SMS, you can go and buy SMS traffic, via gray routes

  • with people with their having phones strung up.

  • Attached to a like computer and pumping out SMS's.

  • That works for a time but it always get shut down.

  • And I've seen so

  • many companies make these mistakes.

  • Where they think they're gonna grow

  • by using these kind of tactics.

  • If you can't get your email, your SMS or

  • your push delivered.

  • You will never get any success from these.

  • Push, you spam your power users, I know

  • that's slightly different to what I said earlier.

  • But you actually, spam your power users and

  • give them notifications that they don't care about and

  • make it really hard for them to opt out.

  • So, there's no settings where they can opt out,

  • and they start blocking you.

  • You can never push them once,

  • they've opted out of your push notifications.

  • And it's very hard actually, to prompt them to

  • turn them on once they've turned them off.

  • So, number one thing to think about about email,

  • SMS, and

  • push notification is you have to get them delivered.

  • Beyond that,

  • it's a question of open rate, click through rate.

  • So, what is the compelling subject line you

  • can put there.

  • So, that people are gonna open your email.

  • And how can you get them to click when they visit?

  • Everyone focuses towards doing,

  • marketing email that are just spam.

  • In my opinion Newsletters are stupid.

  • Don't do newsletters, because you'll

  • send the same message to everyone on your site.

  • Someone, who signed up

  • to your site yesterday versus someone,

  • who's been using your product for three years.

  • Do they need the same message?

  • No.

  • The most effective email you can do is notifications.

  • So, what are you sending?

  • What should you be notifying people of?

  • And this is a great place where we're in

  • the wrong mindset.

  • As a Facebook user I don't want Facebook to email me

  • about every like I receive, because I receive a lot of

  • likes cuz I've got a bunch of Facebook friends.

  • But as a new Facebook user,

  • that first like you receive is a magic moment.

  • Turning on that notification across all of

  • of our channels, increased the click through rate

  • on our email, SMS and push-notifications.

  • But we only turned it on, for low-engaged users who

  • weren't coming back to the site so

  • it wouldn't be spamming them.

  • So, it was a great experience.

  • To think about that.

  • What notifications should we be sending

  • is the first thing you need to think about on email,

  • SMS, and push.

  • And then the second thing you need to

  • be thinking about is.

  • How can you create great

  • triggered marketing campaigns?

  • So, when someone creates their first,

  • cross border trade transaction was one of

  • the best email campaigns, I was ever part of at eBay in

  • terms of click-through rates.

  • It was awesome.

  • Because it was really timely,

  • really in context the right thing to do for the user.

  • So I'd say, make sure you have deliverability.

  • Most important thing.

  • Focus on notifications and trigger based email,

  • SMS, and push notifications beyond that.

  • So, I think we're out of time.

  • There's one thing I wanted to finish with which is.

  • And if you guys have any questions, I guess, like,

  • you can reach me and

  • if I get spammed, I just won't reply.

  • We have great spam filters,

  • no, my only favorite quotes is from General Patton,

  • and it's so cliche it's crazy but it's awesome.

  • A good plan, violently executed today is

  • better than a perfect plan tomorrow and

  • one of the things the most instilled in us.

  • And Harvey still instills in us and Mark instills across

  • the whole of Facebook is this move fast and

  • don't be afraid to break stuff ethos.

  • If you can run more experiments than

  • the next guy, if you can be hungry for growth.

  • If you fight and die for every extra user.

  • And you stay up late at night to get those extra

  • users to run those experiments to

  • get the data and do it over and over and over again.

  • You will grow faster.

  • Marcus said he thinks we won 'cause we wanted it more,

  • and I really believe that.

  • We just worked really hard.

  • It's not like we're crazy smart, or

  • we've all done these crazy things before.

  • We just worked really, really hard,

  • and we executed fast.

  • And I strongly encourage you to do that.

  • Growth is optional.

  • Thank you. Subtitles End: mo.dbxdb.com

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