看 BBC 學英文
Youtube subtitles download by mo.dbxdb.com
Thank you for coming.
>> Move us all, thank you.
Cool, so you guys this is awesome,
I've been watching the lectures in this course,
isn't it absolutely amazing the content?
And now you're stuck with me today.
>> We'll, so how that goes.
Unlike Paul, when he was talking in the Q and A,
and you guys asked him what he would do if he was at
college today and
he said physics, I actually indulged myself.
I went in, I went and did physics,
did physics at Cambridge and I think physics is
an amazing class to give you transferable skills that
are really useful in other areas.
But I guess that's not,
that's not why you're listening to me today.
Like, physics isn't the class, like, so I paid for
college doing online marketing.
Direct sales marketing.
I started with SEO in the 1990s.
I created a paper airplane site.
I had a monopoly.
In the small niche market of
paper airplanes globally which you know,
when you want to start a startup also see how big
the market could be in the long term it wasn't great.
But what that taught me was how to do SEO.
And back in those days it was Altavista, and
the way to do SEO was to have white text on
a white background five pages below the fold.
And you would rank top of Alta Vista if you just paper
airplanes 20 or 30 times in that text.
And that was how you won at SEO in the 1990s.
Like it was a really easy, easy skill to learn.
When I went to college, being a physicist,
I thought paper airplanes would make me cool, and
I was actually the most nerdy person in
the physics class, so I created a cocktail site.
Which was how I learned to program.
And that grew to be the largest cocktail site in
And that really got me into SEO properly when
So with Google, you had to worry about page rank, and
you had to worry about getting links
back to your site.
Which basically, at that stage,
meant one link from the Yahoo directory.
Got you to the top listing in Google if you had white
text, on a white background, below the fold, as well.
When Google launched AdWords that's when I
really started to learn how to do all my marketing.
And that was buying paid clicks from Google, and
reselling them to eBay for
a small margin of like 20% using our affiliate program.
And that was what really kicked me into overdrive
into doing what everyone nowadays talks about is
growth, or growth hacking, or growth marketing.
And in my mind it's just internet marketing.
Using whatever channel you
can to get whatever output you want.
And that's how I paid for college and how I
ended up going from being a physicist to a marketer and
transitioning to the dark side of the force.
So what do you think matters most for growth.
You've had loads of lectures and
people have said it over and over, so
what do you guys think matters most for growth?
Someone give me an answer.
>> Great product.
>> Great product.
I agree, great product.
What does great product lead to?
And what do you need those customers to do?
>> Spread the word.
Someone said stay on your site.
Someone said that.
That's it. Retention.
Retention is the single most important thing for growth.
Now we have an awesome growth team at Facebook, and
I'm super proud to work on it.
But the truth of
the matter is we have a fantastic product.
But getting to work on growth at Facebook is
a massive privilege, because we're promoting something
that everyone in the world really wants to use.
Which is absolutely incredible.
If we can get people on, and
get them ramped up, they stick on Facebook.
So many times I go advise multiple startups,
my favorite was working with Airbnb, but
I've worked with Coursera, I've worked with
other ones that haven't done as well as those guys.
But the one thing that is true over, and over, and
over again is if you look at this curve.
The sentiment, the active,
versus number of days from acquisition.
If you end up with a retention curve that
ascentotes to a line parallel to the x axis.
You have a viable business, and
you have product market fit for some subset of market.
But most of the companies that you see fly up,
we talk about growth hacking and virality and
all of this other stuff.
I'm gonna try so hard not to swear, but it'll happen.
Their attention curve slopes down towards the X-axis, and
in the end intercepts the X-axis.
Now when I show this chart to
most people they say that's all well and good.
You had a million people a day in terms of
growth when you started the growth team at Facebook, or
you were at 50 million users.
You had a lot of people joining the site so
you had a ton of data to do this.
We used this same methodology for
our B to B growth.
Getting people to sign up as self-service advertisers,
we used this analysis to understand how much
growth we were gonna have in that market as well.
And in that place,
when I joined Facebook, the product was three days old.
And within 90 days of the product launching,
we were able to use this technique to be able to
figure out what the one year value of an advertiser was,
and we predicted it for the first year to 97% of
what the number turned out to be.
So I think it's very important to look at
your attention curve, and this is how we did it.
If you see here.
This red line is number of users,
who have been on your product for
a certain number of days.
So, a bunch of people, that should say zero,
a bunch of people will have been on your product,
all of your users will have been on it at least one day.
But, if your product's been around a year, or whatever,
you will have zero users who've been on it 366 days.
The curves sensible?
So what you then do is look for all of your users,
who have been on your product one day.
What percentage of them are monthly active.
100% for the first 30 days obviously,
because monthly active they all signed up on one day.
But then you look at 31.
Every single user, on their 31st day after registration,
what percentage of them were monthly active, 32nd day,
33rd day, 34th day?
And that allows you,
with only something like 10,000 customers or
whatever, to get a real idea of what this curve is
gonna look like for your product.
And you're gonna be able to tell does it asymptote.
And it'll get noisy out towards the right-hand side.
Like I'm not using real data.
It'll get noisy out towards the right hand side, but
you'll be able to get a handle on,
does this curve flatten out or does it not.
If it doesn't flatten out, don't go and
do growth tactics, don't go and
do virality, don't hire a growth hacker.
Focus on getting product market fit.
Because in the end,
as Sam said in the beginning of this course,
idea, product, team, execution.
If you don't have a great product,
there's no point executing well on growing it.
Because it won't grow.
Number one problem I've seen inside Facebook for
new products, number one problem I've seen for
startups I ever devised has been, they don't actually
have product market fit when they think they do.
So the next obvious question that people ask over and
over and over again is okay, so
what does good retention look like?
Sure I can have five percent retention but
I'm guessing that Facebook had better than that, so
that's not gonna be a successful business.
And I get really pissed off when
people ask me that question.
Because I think you can figure it out.
And I love this story, and this is like my one
gratuitous story that I love that I'm throwing in here,
so the rest of it may not be as gratuitous.
But this is a picture that was published in
Life magazine in 1950 of
one of the Trinity nuclear bomb tests.
And there's a guy,
Geoffrey Taylor, who's heard of Geoffrey Taylor.
Someone's heard of him.
Geoffrey Taylor was a British physicist,
who ended up actually winning the Nobel Prize.
And he was able to figure out from looking at
this picture, what the power of the atomic bomb was,
the U.S. atomic bomb.
And Russian's were publishing similar pictures,
just using dimensional reasoning.
And dimensional reasoning is I think,
one of the best skills that I learned during my
time studying physics back in the U.K..
And what dimensional reasoning is, is you look at
the dimensions that are involved in a problem.
So, you wanna figure out energy?
Newtons, meters, newtons are kilograms, meters are second
to the minus 2, so you've got kilograms,
meters squared, seconds to the minus 2,
and then you try and figure out how you can get each of
those numbers from what data you have.
So, the mass.
Is the volume of this sphere.
So, that's a meter cubed you throw in there.
So you've got meters the 5 over seconds the minus 2,
and he was able to use that to just figure out
what the power of this atomic bomb was,
what the ratios of the power between the Russian and
US atomic bomb, and essentially reveal one of
the top secrets that existed in the world at that time.
That's a hard problem.
Figuring out what
Facebook's retention rate is not a hard problem.
How many people are there on the internet?
Give or take someone throw something out.
>> 2.4 billion, 2.3 billion.
Something like that right?
Okay, Facebook's banned in China.
>> About a billion.
>> About 2 billion?
2 billion. So
2 billion people on the internet.
Facebook in their last earnings call
said something around 1.3 billion in
terms of the number of active users.
You can divide those numbers by each other.
And yeah, that won't give you the right answer.
Course it's not gonna give you the right answer.
But it's gonna give you
close enough to a ballpark figure.
Of what the retention rate looks like for Facebook.
If we signed everyone on the internet up, and
then you will know it is higher than that.
Similarly if you look at Whats App, they've announced
six hundred million active users.
How many people have smart phones?
You can figure out that number.
That number is out knocking around.
It can give an idea of how many users there are.
Amazon has had a pop at
signing up almost everyone in the United States.
You know how many people are online in the US, and
you've got a good idea of how many
customers Amazon are from the numbers they throw out.
Different verticals need different terminal retention
rates for them to have successful businesses.
If you're in e-commerce and you're retaining on
a monthly active basis like 20, 30% of your users,
you're probably gonna do pretty well.
If you're in social media, and
your first batch of people signing up to
your product are not like 80% retained,
you're not gonna have a massive social media site.
And so, it really depends on the vertical you're in,
what the retention rates are.
What you need to do is have the tools to
think about who out there is comparable.
And how you can look at it and say,
am I anywhere close to what real success looks like in
So retention is
the single most important thing for growth.
And retention comes from having a great idea, and
a great product to back up that idea and
great product market fit.
The way we look at whether a product has great retention
or not is whether or not the users who install it.
Actually stay on it long term,
when you normalize on a cohort basis, and
I think that's a really good methodology for
looking at your product and saying, okay, the first 100,
the first 1,000, the first 10,000 people I get on this,
will they be retained in the long run?
So now how do you attack operating for growth?
Let's say you have awesome product market fit.
You have built an e-commerce site and you have 60% of
people coming back every single month and
making a purchase from you.
Which would be absolutely fantastic.
How do you take that and say now it's time to scale?
Now it's time to
execute was the last thing in your thought.
And that's where I think growth teams come in.
Like my contrarian viewpoint, or
whatever is if you're a start-up you
shouldn't have a growth team.
>> Damn it.
Halfway through and I failed.
You shouldn't have a growth team.
Start-ups should not have growth teams.
The whole company should be the growth team.
Should be the head of growth.
You need someone to set a North Star for
you, gratuitous shot of the, you know, NASA page.
You need someone to set a North Star for
you about where the company wants to go.
And that person needs to be the person leading
the company, in my opinion, from what I've seen.
And Mark is a fantastic example of that.
Back when Facebook started lots of people were
putting out their registered user numbers.
Right? You'd see registered user
numbers for MySpace.
You'd see registered user numbers for Compact.
You'd see registered user numbers.
Mark put out monthly active users as the number both
internally he held everyone to.
And said we need everyone on Facebook, but
that means everyone active on Facebook.
Not everyone signed up to Facebook.
So monthly active people was the number internally.
And it was also the number he published externally.
It was the number he made the whole world hold
Facebook to as the number that we cared about.
If you look at what Yam has done with What's Up I
think it's another great example.
He always published send numbers.
If you're a messaging application,
sends is probably the single most important number.
If people use you once a day.
Maybe that's great, but they send one message.
They, you're not really their primary messaging
mechanism, so Yan published the sentence number.
Inside AvianB they talk about nice book, and
they also published that in all of the,
like, infographics that you see inside Tech Crunch.
They always benchmark themselves against how many
nights booked they
have compared to the largest hotel chains in the world.
They have, each of these companies,
a different north star.
The north start doesn't have to be
monthly active users for every different vertical.
For eBay, when I was there,
it was gross merchandised volume.
How much stuff did people actually buy through eBay.
Everyone externally tends to judge eBay based on revenue.
Actually, Benedict Evans has
done this amazing breakdown of Amazon's business.
Which is really interesting.
To look at their marketplace business versus their
EBay is all marketplace business, right.
So eBay's being judged by its revenue when it
actually has ten times, or whatever more
gross merchandised volume going through the site.
And that was the number that eBay looked at when I
was inside there, and optimized for.
So every different company when it
thinks about growth needs a different north star.
But when you are operating for
growth, it is critical that you have that north star and
you define it as a leader.
The reason this matters is.
The second you have more than one person working on
anything, you cannot control what everyone else is doing.
I promise you,
having now might have hit 100 people I'm managing,
I have no control.
It's all influence.
Yes, I can say to one person, do this one thing.
But then the other 99
are gonna do whatever the hell they want.
And the thing is, it's not clear to everybody what
the most important thing is a for a company.
It would be very easy inside eBay for
people to say, you know what?
We should focus on revenue.
Or you know what? We should focus on
the number of people buying from us.
Or you know what? We should focus on
how many people list items on eBay.
And Pierre and Meg and John.
Those guys, those various leaders, always said no,
it's the amount of gross merchandise volume that
goes through our site.
It's the percentage of
e-commerce that goes through our site.
That is what really matters for this company.
Which means when people are having a conversation and
you're not in the room, when they're sitting in front of
their computer screen and thinking about how they
build this particular product or
this particular feature.
In their head,
it's gonna be clear to them that it's not about revenue.
It's about gross merchandise volume.
Or it's not about getting more registrations.
Registrations don't matter unless they become long term
A great example of this is when I was at Ebay in 2004.
We changed the way we paid our affiliates for
And affiliate programs are a bit out of fashion these
the idea of an affiliate program is essentially you
pay anyone on the internet.
A referral for sending traffic to your site.
But it's mostly about getting access to like,
big marketers who do it on their own,
like separately and
some really good stories from this.
We were paying for confirmed registered users.
So all of our affiliates were aligned,
they're out getting confirmed registered users,
to the base site.
We changed our payment model to pay for
activated confirmed registered users.
So you had to confirm your account and
then bid on an item, or buy an item or
list an item, to become someone that we paid for.
Overnight when we made that change,
we lost something like 20% of confirmed registered
users that were being driven by the affiliates.
But the ACIUs only dropped by about 5%.
The ratio of CIU to ACIU went up, and
then the growth of ACIUs, massively accelerated.
The cause of this was if you wanna drive CRUs if
someone searches for
a trampoline, you land them on the registration page cuz
they think they have to register and
confirm, before they get that trampoline.
If you wanna drive ACRUs you land them on the search
results page within eBay for trampolines so they can see
the thing they want to buy, get excited about it and
register when they want to buy it.
And if you drive just CRUs people don't
have an amazing,
magic moment on eBay when they visit the site.
And that's the next most important thing to
think about, is how do you drive towards the magic
moment that gets people hooked on your service?
So in the lecture notes for
this course I've stuck in a bunch of links to people I
think are brilliant at all of this stuff.
That retention curve I showed earlier,
there's a link to this guy Danny Ferrante
whose incredible talking about retention curves.
The magic moment, there are two videos linked.
One is Chimoff talking about growth,
who was the guy who set up the growth team at Facebook.
And one is my friend Naomi and
I talking at F8 four years ago about how we
were thinking about growth back then.
And in both of those mem,
both of those videos we talk about the magic moment.
So, what do you guys think the magic moment is for
when you're signing up to Facebook?
You hit that big green button,
what is the moment when users are like ha?
Mark even talked about it at the start up
school a few years back.
>> See your friends.
>> See your friends.
Simple as that.
And usually it is very simple.
I talked to so many companies, and they try and
get incredibly complicated about what they're doing.
But it is as simple as just when you see that
first picture of one of your friends on Facebook.
You go, oh my God, this is what the site is about.
And Zucks talked at Y Combinator about
getting people to ten friends in 14 days.
That is why we focus on that metric.
The number one most important thing in
a social media site is connecting to your friends.
Because without that,
you have a completely empty news feed, and
clearly you're not gonna come back.
You'll never get any notifications,
you'll never have any friends telling you
about things they're missing on the site.
So for Facebook the magic moment is that moment when
you see your friend's face, and
everything we do on growth.
And if you look at the LinkedIn registration flow,
or you look at the Twitter registration flow,
or you look at what WhatsApp does when you sign up,
the number one thing all these services look to
do is to show you the people you want to follow,
connect to, send messages to, as quickly as possible.
Because in this vertical, that's what matters.
When you think about Airbnb or you think about eBay,
it's finding on eBay that unique item,
that PEZ dispenser or broken laser pointer that you
really, really cared about, and wanted to get hold of.
Like when you see that collectible thing that you
were missing, that is the real magic moment on eBay.
When you look on Airbnb and
you find that first, you find that,
that first listing that's like a cool house that you
can stay in and
when you go through the door, that's a magic moment.
And similarly on the other side,
when you're listing your house,
the first time you get paid, is an amazing moment.
When you're listing an item on eBay,
the first time you get paid is a magic moment.
You should ask Brian what he thinks,
cuz they've done these amazing storyboards which I
think has been shared, of like the journey through
a user's moment on life on, on Airbnb and how excited.
Isn't, he's talking in three lectures time?
The guy's awesome at talking about the magic moment and
getting his users to feel love and
joy and all this stuff.
So think about what the magic moment is for
your product, and
get people connected to it as fast as possible.
Because then you
can move up where that blue line has asymptoted.
Then you can go from 50% retention to 60% retention
to 70% retention easily, if you can connect people with
the thing that makes them stick on your site.
The second thing to think about is everyone in
the Valley gets wrong, that we optimize when we
think about growth for ourselves.
So my favorite example is notifications.
Again, talk to lots of companies, advise lots of
companies, every single company when they
talk about notifications, goes, oh I'm getting too
many notifications, I think that's what we
need to optimize for in notifications.
Okay, are your power users leaving your site
because they're getting too many notifications?
No, then why would you optimize that,
they're probably grownups and they can use filters.
What you need to focus on is the marginal user.
The one person who doesn't get a notification in
a given day, or month, or year.
Our experience of our products, and
by the way like building an awesome product is
all about thinking about the power user, right?
Building an incredible product
is definitely optimizing for
the people who use your product the most.
But driving growth,
people who are already using your product all the time,
are not the ones you have to worry about.
So, in this Danny Ferrante video there's also this link
from the lecture page,
there's also talk about our growth accounting framework
that we use to think about for growth.
And we looked at new users, resurrected users,
people who weren't on Facebook for 30 days and
came back, and churned users.
And the resurrected and churn numbers for
pretty much every product I've ever seen,
dominate the new user account.
Once you reach a sensible point of growth,
a couple of years, and whatever.
And all those users who were churning and
resurrecting, had low friend counts.
And didn't find their friends, and
so weren't connected to
the great stuff that was going on, on Facebook.
And so the number one thing we needed to focus on
was getting them to those ten friends, getting them to
the whatever number of friends they needed.
So think about the user on the margin,
don't think about where yourself when
you're thinking about growth.
So, operating for
growth, what you really need to think about is,
what is the north star of your company.
What is the one metric where,
if everyone in the company is thinking about it and
driving their product was that metric and
their actions towards moving that metric up, you know in
the long run your company will be successful.
And by the way,
they're probably all correlated to each other so
it's fine to pick almost any metric.
Whichever one is like the deepest, like, that you feel
the best about, that aligns with like your mission and
your values, probably go for that one.
But realistically, daily active users
fairly correlated to monthly active users.
We could've gone with either one.
Amount of content shared, also very correlated to
how many users there are because, guess what,
you add a user, they share content.
So, lots of things end up being correlated.
Pick the one that fits with you and
that you know you're gonna be able to stick with for
a long time, but have a north star.
Have a north star and know the magic moment that when
a user experiences that, they will deliver on that
metric for you on the north star, and then think about
the marginal user, don't think about yourself.
Those are, I think, the really important points when
you're operating for growth.
Everything has to come from the top.
So the last area here is tactics.
And my hope was that I could hit a few of these and then
I've got a list of tactics I wanna go through that
I'm better talking with a whiteboard and whatever on,
but you can ask me questions as I'm going through on
those about how they work and what goes better.
But the important tactics that you need to think about
this is great guy by the way,
Tom Fishburne, he lives, he lives in the Bay Area and
he does these really cynical cartoons that I love.
So let's say you found your,
your niche market that you're gonna have
a monopoly on inside the mousetrap market.
It's a silenced mousetrap that's sitting under beds so
that if the mice come to your bed overnight,
like they can be killed without waking you up, so
that's your niche market.
And your, your mousetrap is better than anybody else for
What typically happens in Silicon Valley is,
everyone think mar, thinks marketers are useless.
Like I thought marketers were useless when I
was a physics student, so I'm
sure as engineering students you must thing we're awful,
awful people who aren't useful to have around.
Like, build it and they will come.
That is something that is very much the mantra in
the Valley and I don't believe it's true.
I believe you actually have to work.
There's a good article, again, in the lecture page,
from interviewing Ben Silvermann where he
talks about how the growth of
Pinterest was driven by marketing.
It's a really good article to read into.
I'm biased, of course.
So, the first tactic I
want to talk about is internationalization.
Facebook internationalized too late.
Sheryl said it broadly in public and
I definitely agree with that.
One of the biggest barriers to our long term growth and
one of the biggest things we have to deal with was
all the countries where there were clones.
Famously Studeveldt said had Fakebook.css in their,
in their HTML.
And there were a ton of sites like that out there,
whether it was Studeveldt site as a clear clone,
Vkontakte, Mixi, Cyworld, Orkut, there were all these
different social networks around the world that
grew up while Facebook was focused on the US.
And so internationalizing was an important barrier we
needed to knock down, and knocking down barriers is
often a very important to think about for growth.
Facebook started off as college only.
So every college that it
was launched in was knocking down a barrier.
When Facebook expanded beyond colleges to
high schools I wasn't at the company, but that was a
company shaking moment where people questioned whether or
not Facebook could actually survive,
the culture of the site could survive.
Then expanding from high schools to everyone,
that was like, just before I joined and
that was a shocking moment and
that spurred the growth on to 50 million and
then we hit a brick wall.
And when we hit that brick wall that was
the point when a lot of existential questions were
being asked inside Facebook about whether any social
network could ever get to more than 100 million users.
Which sounds stupid now, but
at the time no one had ever achieved it.
Everyone had kind of tapped out between 50 and
100 million users and
we were worried that it wasn't possible.
And that was the point at
which the growth team got set up.
Chimoff brought a whole bunch of us together.
It was he said very publicly that he wanted to fire me on
multiple occasions, and he probably should have done.
But, without Chimoff I
think none of us would have stayed at the company.
We were a really weird bunch of people, but
it worked out.
And, the two things we did, I think, that really,
really drove growth initially, was number one,
we focused on that ten friends in 14 days and
getting users to the magic moment.
And that was something Zuck drove,
cuz we were all stuck in analysis paralysis,
saying is it causation, is it correlation.
Zuck was like, you really think if no one
gets a friend that they'll be active on Facebook?
Are you crazy?
The second thing was internationalization.
It was knocking down another barrier.
And when we launched it, I think there were
two things that we did really well.
Number one was, even though we were late, and
we were stressed about being late,
we took the time to build it in a scalable way.
We moved slow to move fast.
And you can actually read,
hear the full story from Naomi in one of
the videos linked from the lecture page.
But what we did was we wrapped all the strings in
the site in FPT which our translation script, and
then, or translation extraction script, and then,
we created the community translation platform.
So that we didn't just have
professional translators translating a site we
could have all of our users translating a site.
And we got French translated in 12 hours, but
we managed to get to this day we are now at
104 languages translated by Facebook for Facebook.
80 plus 70 of those are translated by the community.
And we took the time to
build something that would enable us to scale.
The other thing is we
prioritized the right languages.
So back then the right languages,
the big four languages were French, Italian, German and
Spanish, figs and Chinese, but
we were blocked in China.
>> So we focused on French, Italian, German,
Now look at that list,
that's today's distribution of languages.
Italian isn't on the list anymore.
French and German are about to fall off.
In the last year we quadrupled the number of
people on Facebook in Hindi, quadrupled.
And so building for
where the world is today, is an easy mistake to make and
it's what a lot of the other social networks did.
We built a scalable translation infrastructure
that actually enabled us to attack all of the languages,
so we can be ready for
where the future is going to, is gonna be.
And you'll probably be able to see some stuff
from our Internet.org Summit in India about where we
want to go with language translations later today,
cuz I think they're talking about that stuff there.
So these are the tactics I wanna go through now, and
I'll stick with the white board for that stuff.
But I'd really encourage you guys as I go through these,
if you've got any questions about them let me know.
I think this should be like,
a more free form time anyway.
But I think some these
tactics are quite interesting.
Yes, I think there are two ways to look at virality.
There's a great book whoops, the book on the right here,
by Adam Penenberg, Viral Loop,
goes through a bunch of case studies of companies that
have grown through viral marketing.
And I strongly encourage you, if
you're interested in viral marketing, to get that book.
I think Ogilvy on Advertising's great as well
because chapter seven he's like if you can't think of
anything else stick a car to a billboard with
super glue and people will buy your super glue.
And he's got some really,
he's got some really good creative tips in there.
>> Like the, the guy's been dead 20 years and I think he
still, I, I buy everyone on my team gets both of these
books when they start on my team.
So Sean Park has this model that he taught or he
told us about when he, when, when I joined Facebook.
Which is to think about virality for
a product in terms of three things.
First is payload.
So how many people can you hit with any
given viral blast?
Second, he had cooler words for
these, I'm not quite as cool.
Second is conversion rate, and third is frequency.
Payload frequency and
conversion rate, whatever, that order.
So, how many people can you hit at once is payload.
How many times can you hit them per blast is frequency.
And what are they gonna convert at?
And that gives you
a fundamental idea of how viral a product is.
So Hotmail is like, the canonical example of
brilliant viral marketing, right?
Back when Hotmail launched,
there were a bunch of mail companies that had
been funded and they were throwing huge amounts of
money at traditional advertising.
How many people know the Hotmail story, of virality?
Awesome, great, new audience, sorry.
Those two or three people will be bored.
But Hotmail back in, back at that time.
People couldn't get free email clients,
they had to be tied to their ISP.
And Hotmail and a few other companies launched and
their clients were available wherever you went.
You could log in via library internet or whatever,
school internet, and be able to get access to that.
Which was a really big value proposition for
everyone, who wanted to access it.
Most of the companies, went out there and
did big TV campaigns and billboard campaigns and
newspaper campaigns and
things like that forced a lot of advertising of Yahoo,
all of those things.
But the Hotmail team didn't have as much funding, and so
they had to scrabble around to figure out how to do it.
So, what they did was add that little link at
the bottom of every email that said,
sent from Hotmail, get your free email here.
Now, the interesting thing is that meant
the payload was low.
Right, you email one person at a time,
not necessarily gonna have a huge payload.
Maybe you send around some of those viral spam emails.
But then I'm not sure I'll click on your link.
The frequency is high, though because you're
emailing the same people over and over and over.
Which means you're gonna hit them once,
twice, three times a day with that same link and
really move up the impressions.
And the conversion rate was also very high because
people didn't like being tied to their ISP email.
And so Hotmail ended up being
extremely viral because it had high frequency and
high conversion rates.
Another example is PayPal.
PayPal, PayPal is interesting because PayPal
has two sites to it.
PayPal has the buyer and the seller site.
The other thing that's interesting about PayPal is
its mechanism for viral growth was eBay.
And so you can use all kinds of things for
virality that may not look necessarily obviously viral.
So PayPal, if you sent money,
if you said to a seller, I am going to send you money.
Like, I can't think of a higher conversion rate.
Frequency was low, payload was low, but
PayPal did this thing, where they gave away money when
you got your friends to sign up for PayPal, and
so that's how they went viral on the consumer side.
They didn't have to do that for sellers,
because if I said I'm gonna send you money via this,
you will take that.
And even on the consumer side they
went viral because someone said sign up for
this thing and you'll get 10 bucks.
Why wouldn't you?
So, they were able to go viral, but
in both cases it was because their conversion rate was
incredibly high on the buyer and the seller side.
Because their payload and frequency was high.
So this is a really good way to look at virality if
you wanna say, is this product viral?
Facebook was not viral via email sharing or
anything like that.
Facebook was purely viral by a word of mouth.
Because the interesting thing about PayPal and
Hotmail Is to use them the first person had to
send an email to someone who wasn't on the service.