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  • The recent oil price rally has fueled the recovering commodity currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollar.

    近期油價就像加元和澳元一樣正在復甦。

  • But has the market got ahead of itself with this rallying commodity currencies?

    但是這項正在復甦的商品貨幣是否使市場好高騖遠了呢?

  • One man who thinks so is Steven Saywell, global FX strategist at BNP Paribas.

    巴黎銀行駐倫敦外匯策略全球主管 Steven Saywell 深表同意。

  • Steven, what is it that that has caused the rally in recent commodity price currencies?

    Steven ,是甚麼因素導致近期商品貨幣的復甦呢?

  • Well, we think it really gets down to one point and that's the Chinese recovery.

    我想中國的復甦是它跌落谷底的時刻。

  • Certainly if we look at the tail end of 2015, expectations for Chinese growth were fairly muted.

    如果我們看看2015年底,幾乎聽不到期望中國經濟成長的聲音。

  • But, actually what's happened in 2016 is that growth has exceeded expectations.

    但是,在2016年,實際上成長是高於預期的。

  • That's led to stronger demand for commodities and we've seen quite a nice rebound led by oil

    (高成長) 促使對於商品的需求大增,我們看到石油帶來一個不錯的回升,

  • but also other commodities, specifically things such as iron ore.

    也有一些其他的商品如此,特別是鐵礦。

  • Okay, so if we take a look at your first chart, it shows us the Australian dollar,

    好,所以如果我們看你的第一個表格,這是澳元,

  • which is a commodity currency driven by iron ore prices.

    一個被鐵礦價格帶動的商品貨幣。

  • And it's showing basically that the red line shows the actual spot rate for the foreign exchange rate compared to the US dollar,

    這顯示,基本上,紅線顯示與美元相比,外匯的實際即時匯率,

  • and then we have the BNP Paribas model number that shows the blue number,

    然後我們有巴黎銀行的模型,就是藍色這條線,

  • that shows basically it's currently undervalued.

    顯示出基本上這是被低估的。

  • So, why do you think that is?

    所以,你覺得為甚麼會這樣?

  • Sure. Well, I should highlight it. So the blue line here is one of our flagship models. It's called BNP Paribas CLEER.

    當然,我應該要強調的。藍線是我們主要的模型,我們稱它為 BNP Paribas CLEER 。

  • It gives a medium term equilibrium level of a currency.

    它顯示貨幣中期的均衡水平。

  • What we think has happened here is that the Australian dollar is currently, significantly higher than the equilibrium level would suggest.

    我們覺得這裡發生的事是,澳元現在正遠遠高於均衡值。

  • I think there's two factors there. One is the commodity prices have accelerated quite significantly.

    我想這裏有兩個因素,第一是物價大幅攀升。

  • We don't think that is sustained. So we think that falls back.

    我們不覺得這會持續,我們覺得它會再下跌。

  • Secondly, until very recently, the reserve bank of Australia had kept interest rates very high as well, too.

    其次,近期澳洲儲備銀行一直把利率控制在高點。

  • They've started to ease policy now and we're starting to see the Australian dollar converge back to the level signalled by the model.

    他們已開始試用寬鬆政策,我們慢慢可以看到澳元回到模型上這個水準。

  • Okay. So if we take a look at the second chart that you've brought out.

    好。所以我們來看看你帶來的第二個圖表。

  • The second chart shows us the market position and how it's changed.

    第二張圖表顯示市場地位還有它如何改變。

  • So we've had, this is the exchange rate with the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar and the Australian dollar or US dollar.

    所以我們有,這是加元對美元的匯率,然後這是澳元對美元的匯率。

  • Canadian obviously being an oil-fueled currency as well.

    加拿大很明顯也是個石油燃料導向的貨幣區。

  • And we can see that the positioning has changed in the market,

    而我們可以看到市場定位正在改變。

  • so we've gone from quite a strong, short position at the beginning of the year to quite a strong, long position.

    所以我們從年初的強而空頭的部位到現在強而多頭的部位。

  • So, do you think the market has got it wrong? Or why has it switched?

    所以,你覺得市場錯了嗎?或是為甚麼會這樣改變呢?

  • Well, this is interesting. If we look at the history of these two commodity currencies, and remember the zero line here is a neutral position.

    這滿有趣的。如果我們觀察這兩個商品貨幣的歷史,記住零這邊是中立的位置。

  • You can see that for the past 12~15 months, the markets pretty much exclusively held a short position.

    你可以看到在過去的12-15個月以來,市場排他的位於空頭部位。

  • That changed quite dramatically from the beginning of 2016. I think driven by the commodity price rally.

    在2016年初,這有了戲劇性的改變。我想,受商品貨幣復甦的驅使。

  • We're now at a level where the market is, we would say caught long of both of these currencies.

    我現在正處於市場,我們會說長期被這兩種貨幣制約了。

  • The reason we say caught is that if commodity prices do fall back,

    我們會這麼說是因為要是物價下跌,

  • which they're starting to already and it's consistent without expectations,

    它們其實已經開始下跌了,一致且部出乎意料,

  • the market will then scramble to reduce these long positions and that will accelerate the move to the downside

    市場就會在混亂中減少多頭部位,這樣會更快跌落谷底,

  • for both the Australian dollar but also the Canadian dollar.

    澳元和加元都一樣。

  • Okay, so then if we look at your third chart, when we talk about where the market is

    好,那我們來看你的第三張圖表,這裡我們談到市場

  • and where you might suggest that people could take advantage of the trend that you think is coming.

    你或許會指出民眾可以占未來這個潮流的便宜。

  • Um... we take a look at the Australian dollar and compare it to the Euro.

    嗯,我們看看澳元,然後拿他跟歐元比較。

  • So that's the red line here and the blue line is showing us the 2-year interest rate swap spread,

    那就是紅色這條線,而藍色這條顯示2年的匯率互換價差,

  • which traditionally there is a relationship between those although we have seen some gaps in a few points.

    傳統上來說,這兩者應該是有關係的,但是這裡在某些點上我們可以看到落差。

  • So, what is this chart telling us?

    所以,這張圖表告訴我們甚麼事?

  • Well, certainly the underlying philosophy here is that there's a very strong relationship or correlation between

    基本概念是這裡有很強烈的關係或是關聯

  • short term interest rate movements and currencies.

    對於短期利率漲跌和貨幣流通。

  • Secondly, traditionally, the Australian dollar tends to be quoted against the US dollar,

    其次,傳統上來說,澳元的價格都是用美元計價的,

  • and that's what the original model told us that equilibrium lies to the downside around 67 cents.

    這也是原始模型中看到的,均衡值位於67分左右。

  • That's a great trade over the medium term, but in the short term, we think the Euro will continue to do very well.

    在中期內有個巨大的貿易,但是在短期內,我們覺得歐元會保持良好狀態。

  • So, one of the favorite trade recommendations we have is long with the Euro against the Australian dollar.

    所以我們最偏愛的貿易建議就是長期要用歐元計價澳元。

  • And this chart or the relationship here backs that up very clearly.

    而這張圖表甚至是這其中的關係都能為以上這個說法背書。

  • You can see the blue line, which is the interest rate differential is moving significantly in favor of the Euro,

    你可以看到藍色這條線,利率差值很慏顯得對歐元有利。

  • and that's pushing the Euro versus the Australian dollar higher.

    使歐元對澳元的比例更高。

  • What you can also see is the interest rate is telling us there's more to go on the upside.

    你還可以看到利率顯示還會再升高。

  • So we think being long the Euro versus the Australian dollar is a very good trade recommendation.

    所以我們覺得長期要用歐元計價澳元是很好的貿易建議。

  • Okay. And then if we take a step back and look at what investors are watching.

    好。那如果我們退一步,以投資客的角度看看。

  • So, I mean we've had a stronger recovery in commodity prices,

    所以,我是說在物價上我們有一個較強烈的復甦,

  • we've had a weakening expectation of the Fed and what their rate hikes might be.

    我們對於美聯儲及其風險的期望比較小。

  • And we've had some recovery in sort of the Chinese or some pleasant surprises around Chinese economic data

    而中國這邊也有一些復甦,或者中國的經濟資料有些令人愉快的驚喜,

  • in the past few months that have been fueling this.

    過去的幾個月以來這些事一直在發生。

  • What are the things that if an investor had to pick one or I guess at most two things to watch of when this might turn.

    那如果投資客必須挑一個,最多兩個因素觀察的話,

  • What would those be?

    應該挑哪些呢?

  • Okay. Well, if I had to name two factors here, particularly in the case of the Australian dollar I'd name the following to 2 points.

    好,嗯如果要我點出兩個因素的話,如果要看澳元的話我會列舉以下兩點。

  • One. What happens to iron ore prices? Does it fall back?

    一,鐵礦的價格怎麼樣?有跌嗎?

  • Do they fall back as we anticipate?

    跌幅有像我們預期般的那樣嗎?

  • And secondly, what happens on the interest rate front? Is the reserve bank of Australia likely to cut interest rates again?

    第二,利率怎麼樣?澳洲儲備銀行會再降息嗎?

  • We think they do potentially as early as June.

    我們想他們六月初是有的。

  • If either, or both of those factors happen, the Australian dollar will weaken.

    如果以上兩點都沒有發生,或是同時發生,澳元都會再貶。

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝你。

The recent oil price rally has fueled the recovering commodity currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollar.

近期油價就像加元和澳元一樣正在復甦。

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