bombarded by a better parking manners leaflet campaign.

被「要求良好停車禮節」的傳單轟炸

A fussy push to spare the capital from

這個行動是為了紓解首都

a supposed road-clogging surfeit of foreign tourists

據稱「多到阻塞通行」的外國遊客所造成的問題

But will it be the traffic wardens or the Bank of Japan

但究竟會是交通警察還是日本銀行

that clears the streets first?

先把街道淨空呢?

The congestion peril may be exaggerated

壅塞的慘況大概是被誇大的

but the underlying numbers are not.

但是這其中最根本的原因卻是另一回事。

Japan's inbound tourism boom continued to pace last year

日本的外國觀光客人口自去年開始加速成長

with the visitor tally coming in just shy of the 20 million mark.

赴日觀光的總人數高達將近2000億人

A quarter of those were from Mainland China.

其中，四分之一的觀光客來自大陸

107% increase over 2014.

2014年，大陸觀光客的成長率高達107%

analyst at an era predicted another 22% gain

則預測到了2016年底，日本的外國觀光客人數

in overall tourist number by the end of 2016

會再有22%的成長

And see the total surpassing 30 million by the time the Tokyo Olympics open in 2020.

而赴日觀光的總人數在2020東京奧運前會超越3000億人

Even more striking is the rising tourist spending, up 71% in 2015

更令人震驚的是，觀光客的消費力也在不斷成長。2015年，其消費力成長了71%

and at 3.5 trillion yen,

觀光客消費的3.5億日圓

now ranked in value alongside some of Japan's most famous export industries

足以和現今日本最有利的出口產業平起平坐

auto parts, steel products, and electronic components.

這包含汽車零件、鋼材和電子元件

Brokers sighting benefits for retail, transport, and property sectors

意圖在零售、運輸和房地產等產業獲利的仲介商

heavily pitch the tourism story in their efforts to convince reluctant global fund manages

努力的推銷觀光客為誘因，期望藉此說服外國資金

to pile back into Japan's stock market.

流回日本的股市

The fly in the ointment here is the yen

打破這個美夢的，就是日圓

and the tendency of more bullish observers

以及一些過於樂觀者

to under estimate the price sensitivity of Chinese shoppers

他們低估了消費者貨比三家的精神

at 120 yen to the dollar, a Cartier watch was cheaper in Tokyo than in Seoul or Hong Kong

當美元對日圓的匯率為1:120時，在東京購買一隻卡蒂爾的錶會比在首爾或是香港來得便宜。

according to sales staff in Tokyo's Ginza district

根據日本銀座地區的銷售員

the math still work at current levels of 113 yen to the dollar

這樣的公式在目前1:113的匯率仍然適用

but start to fall apart if the Japanese currency heads much higher

但如果日圓持續升值這個情況就會開始瓦解。

Since the Bank of Japan's negative rates announcement in January,

自從日本銀行一月宣布實施負利率政策

the yen has flatly defied the governor's gambit and strengthened.

日圓的發展完全不如政府所期待，反而持續走強

Some now expected it to break 110 yen to the dollar over the next couple of months

不少人認為在近幾個月內，日幣的匯率會突破110大關

After 3 years supporting the economics story with its weakness

在日幣走弱將近三年後

the yen supply and demand fundementals changed last year.

日圓的供需平衡在去年發生劇烈的改變

argued analyst of J.P. Morgan

一位摩根大通的分析師說道

Retained corporate earnings abroad of being repatriated and investment trusts,

有國外匯回的海外盈餘和投資基金

the board record 17 trillion yen in overseas assets last year

讓公司去年的海外資產達到17兆日圓

[but] are expected to start on winding some of that.

但是未來可能會開始把資產打包回府

The BOJ's two-day policy meeting ends on Tuesday, and very few economists expect it to move.

日本銀行為期兩天的政策會議在星期二落幕，而只有極少數的經濟學家相信他們會有所改變

Currency markets are on a hair trigger,

貨幣匯率市場一觸即發

but so too are Mr. and Mrs. Zheng of Guangzhou,

但來自廣州的鄭先生和鄭太太也是一樣

currently planning where to go this summer.

他們正在計畫要去哪過暑假呢!