There are growing number of investors who are prepared to bet that prices have troughed

越來越多投資人看準油價即將見底，

If they're right, this could be very important because it could mark a turning point

如果預測成真，那麼這將會扭轉

in a vicious downturn that has shredded the budgets of producing countries,

生產國預算緊縮的低迷情勢，

upended central bank policies and stoked fears of a deflationary spiral.

並且顛覆央行的政策，招致螺旋性通縮的恐慌。

What's the evidence that prices have hit the bottom?

油價低盪，依據何在？

Well, since hitting a twelve-year low, now at 27 dollars a barrel in January

這低迷的情勢已持續12年，跌至今年一月每桶27美元。

Brent Crude Oil, the international benchmark, has rallied by more than a third to over 37 dollars a barrel.

身為國際油價市場指標，布蘭特原油油價已回升三分之一，來到每桶37美元。

At the same time, hedge funds and other speculators have established their biggest bet in history on a recovery in oil prices.

同時，對沖基金和投機客下了豪賭，極度看好油價復甦的情勢。

Why are investors optimistic?

投資人何以如此樂觀？

One reason they're bullish is that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, has done enough to convince the market

他們能夠如此樂觀的原因之一，是因為石油出口大佬沙烏地阿拉伯的決策十分有信服力，

that it is sufficiently concerned about the length and depth of the price rout to consider action.

該國積極關注油價的波動，依此提出相關政策。

So, it's been talking to other big producers, such as Russia, about a production freeze.

並且和俄羅斯等產油國就凍結產量進行商議。

Equally, the U.S. shell industry that contributed so much to the glut in the oil market is finally showing signs of slowing down.

同樣在美國，造成石油市場供應過剩的殼牌工業也逐漸減緩生產量。

Now, steady oil prices are important because they've helped stem some of the broad based commodity selling

油價的穩定非常重要，因為它和物價的漲跌息息相關，

due to their linkage that comes through oil-dominated commodity indices and exchange traded funds.

石油主導的物價指數和交易基金都會與物價有所牽連。

So industrial metals, such as zinc, copper, and aluminium, are now at their highest level since the autumn.

工業金屬，像是鋅、銅、鋁等的價格，自去年秋季以來爬升到最高點，

This in turn has triggered a big rally and beaten down mining stocks.

對礦業股造成大幅的價格反彈，

Can commodities sustain their price recovery?

物價得以支撐油價的復甦嗎？

Well, that's the big question that everyone's asking.

這是投資人十分關注的話題。

However, one thing is clear:

不過，可以肯定的是，

It would be difficult for prices to rise significantly for here for a number of reasons.

油價不太可能在近期快速上漲，有幾個原因，

Companies will look to hedge their production,

石油公司會想盡辦法對沖產油量，

that means selling future production forward in the market,

也就是說，他們會在市場售出尚未開採出來的油量，

that would act as a cap on prices.

造成交易市場價格上限。

But, more widely, what the market really needs to see is a recovery in demand

但是，總體而言，現在市場最迫切需要的是需求的復甦，

eating to the stocks and oversupply in the market.

以平衡市場供應過剩的現象。

Ultimately, that means growth in China will need to pick up,

這將取決於中國是否能加速經濟成長，

and it's not clear yet if that's going to happen.

然而一切仍未成定論。