Aside from the day to day movements in interest rates, stocks, bonds,

除了利息、股票、債券的每日動態

and the things which investors are having to pay attention to everyday,

和投資者每天關心的理財大小事之外，

What about the big trends which are driving this world?

還有什麼火熱的趨勢在推動金融世界的運轉？

What are the most important things that we should be paying attention to?

有哪些重要的事情是我們非關注不可的？

To help us think about that, we are joined today by Jon Jonsson, a very experienced fixed income investor for Neuberger Berman.

來自路博邁的資深固定收益基金投資者 Jon Jonsson 將與我們一同討論這些趨勢。

Hello, Jon. Thanks for joining us.

哈囉，Jon，感謝您的參與。

Thank you for having me.

感謝您的邀請。

So in terms of what's important,

說到重要的趨勢，

I think we've got a chart with a lot of people would recognise here, the US dollar over the last 16 years.

大家可以看這張美元過去16年以來的走勢圖。

So, tell us. Why is this so important?

可否跟大家解釋，為什麼這很重要呢？

Well, this is very important as you know.

這件事很重要，

The dollar has been behind a lot of the stress where you have seen in the markets today.

因為美元正面臨市場強大的壓力，

We have seen massive appreciation of the dollar over the last 18 months, and that has affected the commodity prices.

過去18個月以來美元強勁升值，重創物價。

It has affected different economies like China, that is struggling with an old value currency that has been packed to the dollar.

也連帶影響到其他經濟體，像正在和舊匯率掙扎的中國。

So we can trace a lot of things that have happened as we go through this chart if you look back.

我們可以從圖表中追溯許多先前發生的大事，

You know, since 2001.

自從2001年，

China joined the World Trade Organisation, China is growing faster than US. US is slowing, easing, and the dollar sails off.

中國加入WTO後，成長速度大於美國。美國落後懈怠，美元隨之貶值。

We go into the financial crisis and then towards the end of quarter QE, and when at the end of tapering the dollar has appreciated a lot

我們經歷金融危機、量化寬鬆。在削減政策結束後，美元開始快速升值，

and that has caused a significant dislocation, it benefits home countries and can have very disruptive impact on other countries in asset markets

造成全球經濟大換位，對美國帶來好處，卻重創他國的資產市場。

I think you've got a chart here as well as sort of some of the winners and losers, everybody has been losing against the dollar,

你這裡有張顯示各種貨幣相對於美元的圖表，各國都持續貶值。

but that benefits some more than others.

但這對某些國家利大於弊。

Yeah, you can see on this chart how dramatically the world has changed.

是的，你可以從這張圖表看出世界經歷了巨大的變化。

If you go from the top you see the Chinese Renmibi.

從居首的中國人民弊來看，

China is obviously struggling with slowing economy. The currency plays a big role in that.

中國很明顯地深受其緩慢成長的經濟所害。貨幣是主要的原因。

And if you go down the chart, you can see here at the top sort of economies that have been not as successful

往下看，你可以看到有些經濟體並沒有如他們

as in managing or engineering a weaker currency to remain competitive.

管理或操作貨幣以保持競爭力來的成功。

Then, in sort of the middle you have the Euro. The ACB has been very successful in managing down the currency,

在圖表中間，是歐元的情況。ACB 很成功地管理匯率，

and that is the economy you would expect it to benefit from this

所以有些經濟體自然可從中獲利。

and then at the bottom you may have some economies that have gotten a little bit too much

圖表下方顯示某些經濟體

a little bit too far

已經有點過猶不及。

A little too much of a good thing, where you actually have risks.

嘗到太多甜頭，反而增生風險。

You know, having capital outflows, CPI spikes, and more disruptive devaluation of the currency.

像是資本外流、CPI攀升、大幅貶值等

So what's the big conclusion you draw away from this?

所以你會如何總結以上這些情形？

This is one trend, that's why I mean a significant change in competitiveness and ability for economies to generate growth and inflation.

這是一個趨勢，在經濟體的競爭力和產生成長與通貨膨脹等方面，都有顯著的改變。

There is a second trend that is very important to understand. On what side, you are on that trend.

還有另一個我們應該要了解的重要趨勢。你站哪邊，就屬於那個趨勢。

And that is the movement of commodity prices and more specifically energy prices.

那就是有關物價和能源價格的趨勢。

And I think you have done something similar here for oil as well. Yes

你這裡也有張關於石油的圖表。是的。

If we just explain this. I think this is sort of you took 2014 sort of imports and exports of oil,

若要解釋的話，這張圖是把2014年石油的進出口狀況

and imagined the difference between a hundred dollar oil price and a 45 dollar oil price.

拿來比對油價100美元和45美元的差異。

And this is who gains and who loses.

然後就能依此評斷誰賺誰賠。

Yeah, and that's very important. Obviously, we've seen oil prices come down much more.

是的，而且那非常重要。很明顯的，油價大幅下跌許多。

But we are expecting lower for longer if you assume that's the fair representation of going from 100 to 45 as a long term,

但如果我們假設以長期發展而言，從100美元降到45美元是合理的，我們便會期望以低價位來長期發展。

then this would be the annual impact.

那這就會變成年度的影響。

And that is a significant wealth transfer.

並且造成明顯的財富轉移。

We are talking between the different economies over one trillion dollars that is transferred annually.

這種財富轉移是以兆為單位，在不同的經濟體中轉移。

So that's a lot of money.

是非常驚人的數目。

And if you took it just at the consumer level, that will be around three trillion dollars annually that are transferred from producers of commodities to consumers.

單以消費者的角度來看，每年會有3兆美元左右從製造商轉移到消費者身上。

So that's a big wealth transfer (that) would really dramatically affect the fortunes of different economies over time.

這個財富大轉移將逐漸對各個經濟體造成巨大的影響。

And I have just highlighted some of these economies like India has benefits dramatically from this.

幾個像印度的經濟體，就從這大轉移中大幅獲利。

So if you are on the right side of the commodity trade, you know, you are gaining from lower import prices and your currency has sold off,

所以如果你在商品交易中選對邊站，就能從低價進口中獲利，讓貨幣貶值，

then you have one on both of those turns.

同時身處兩股趨勢之中。

And that is important to find economies that are on the winning side of both those trends, and as you go through this

能夠找到在這兩股趨勢中都佔上風的經濟體很重要。在你看完這個圖表後，

you can see Europe certainly benefits. And this is only looking at the oil.

你可以觀察到歐元確實獲利許多，而且這只是在石油方面。

Europe is benefiting from the oil and the currency, so that sounds pretty constructive for that sort of account.

歐洲正從石油和貨幣中獲利，所以剛剛的假設是可以成立的。

Thank you. So it seems like oil and the dollar, the big trends which are driving our world and which are set to continue doing so.

謝謝您。看來石油和美元正主導著金融世界的運轉，並將繼續維持這樣的情勢。