We had a very dramatic rebound in European banking stocks at the start the day, today.

今天的一開始我們就面臨歐洲股市一個很戲劇性的轉折。

Not surprising given how far they had sold down,

以他們拋售的數目來看這個結果並不使人意外，

and then we had the much awaited testimony from Janet Yellen's congress

Janet Yellen 在國會帶來更令我們期待的證詞

where she did a very good job of not creating any new news.

她並沒有製造更多的事端，這點做得非常好。

Basically, the message is that there could well still be more rate rises to come this year,

基本上，她傳達的訊息就是今年還有可能再升息，

if the economic data support it.

如果經濟指標允許的話。

Not the faintest hint that we could be heading towards negative rates as many now fear.

而不是如今許多人擔憂的，傳出可能降息的小聲音。

Now that led to quite a positive reaction from the markets at first,

現在市場的反應十分正面，

but by the end of the day, the forces that have been dominating for a while came back to predominate.

今天結束的時候，曾經主導市場多時的勢力將會回歸。

If we take a look at this chart,

如果我們看看這個圖表，

it shows you the yields curve, the spread of 10-over 2-year treasury yields,

這是這5年來的政府收益曲線，

you can see that we have now dropped below a hundred basis points for the first time since the crisis.

你們可以看到自金融危機我們第一次掉到100個基準點以下。

It's a very precipitate fall we've seen in the last few weeks,

過去幾周的跌幅十分猛烈，

and on the face of it, it is a clear signal that the market is worried about possible recession coming.

表面上來說，很明顯的市場擔憂不景氣的現象會出現。

It's when you begin to expect that there won't be any great rise in interest rates in the future,

當你開始預期未來不會大幅升息，

that you're thinking that there's gonna be low growth and low inflation.

你就會覺得低經濟成長率和低通貨膨脹率要來了。

Now, there is a clear explanation for why this is going on; however,

現在，這件事的始末有個很清楚的解釋；但是，

which is the ongoing reaction to the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

就是歐洲中央銀行和日本銀行正在持續實施的貨幣政策。

If we take a look at this next chart, it shows you 10-year government yields for the USD eurozone in Japan.

讓我們來看看下一張圖表，這是這10年來日本政府在歐元區的收益曲線，以美金計價。

You can see that in Japan following the Bank of Japan's surprising move at the end of last month.

你可以看到在日本，跟著日本銀行上個月底的驚人之舉。

Interest rates on 10-year are actually negative.

這10年來債券的利息其實是負成長的。

And we all know that Japan has been in a slump for a very long time,

而我們都知道日本已經低迷很久了，

but that's actually, as you can see, a new development.

但是那其實是，你可以看到的，一個新的發展。

Similarly, you've seen German bonds yields fall back down again.

同樣的，德國的債券收益也跌回來了。

It's no surprise therefore that long treasury yields are also coming under pressure if you've got that kind of competition,

這並不令人意外，因為這樣他們的國庫收益也會開始有壓力了，好像在比賽一樣。

it's not surprising even the low yields aren't offered here in the States.

美國這裡的收益沒有降低也不令人意外。

Appealing that in turn will push the yield down further.

這會導致收益更加低彌。

As a result, by the end of the day, we saw the dollar fall significantly once more.

結論是，在今天結束以前，我們看到美金又再次暴跌。

As for the stock markets yesterday, it was almost flat but rallied into the close, keep making people feel more optimistic.

那昨天的股票市場呢，幾乎是很平穩地但是有稍微漲了一點，讓人們持續樂觀面對。

This time, it was almost flat but fell into the close,

這次呢，它幾乎是平穩的不過小跌了一些，

probably signaling that after the bounce back at banks, after we've got through Yellen's testimony

或是在暗示著在銀行的回彈後，在我們度過 Yellen 的證詞後，

we will get back to a continued rather great angst.

我們將持續面對更大的焦慮。