The Paris attacks and the shooting down of a Russian jet over Turkish airspace had little impact on the market.

巴黎恐怖攻擊及俄國噴射機於土耳其領空被擊落事件對市場產生了一些影響。

It feels different now.

市場跟以前不一樣了。

Frazzled markets feed political risk. The smell of market fear is amplifying every danger out there.

滿目瘡痍的市場餵飽了政治風險。對於市場的懼怕放大了所有風險的嚴重性。

Trump, Syria Iran tensions, ISIS, migrant crisis, far-right election success.

Trump ，敘利亞和以色列的緊張情勢，ISIS，移民危機，極右派勢力奪權。

That's why sterling is under attack.

這就是英國貨幣受到攻擊的原因。

With astonishing rapidity, Brexit has shot up the worry scale of investors.

英國退出歐盟的事實以驚人的速度讓投資客的恐懼指數狂飆。

The issue is all over the analyst community.

這個議題在分析師界鬧得沸沸揚揚。

UBS notes the spike in Brexit mentions on Google since the start of 2016.

瑞銀註明英國退出歐盟的事實自2016年初之際即在 Google 屢次出現。

But are investors Brexit fixated just because EU referendum year has probably arrived?

但是投資客會如此關注英國退出歐盟只是因為歐盟邁向公投之日已近嗎?

The pound is down 6.4% in the last three months.

英鎊在過去三個月內下跌了6.4%。

But the pace of the decline has quickened, because the new year has seen the market turn nasty.

但是貶值的腳步還在加快，新年出我們看到市場一發不可收拾。

Sterling is in investors' sights because market anxiety is turning them away from anything deemed risky.

投資客瞄準英國貨幣，因為對市場的恐慌使他們的態度轉為極度風險避趨。

The price of UK credit default swaps has shot up since January 1st.

英國信用違約互換的價格從一約一號就開始暴漲。

Right now, Brexit makes the UK feel like a risky asset.

此時此刻，英國退出歐盟使英國(的資本)像是個風險高的資產。

Now, that was far from the market's view last year.

現在的市場看起來跟去年非常不一樣。

As the pound drove on towards 1.60, and the bank of England turned hawkish on rates.

現在英鎊掉到1.60 (英鎊:美金=1:1.6)，英格蘭銀行對利率的態度轉為強硬。

The maybe better reasons why sterling should fall.

有個或許是個更充分為何英磅該貶值的原因。

The dominant issue of the UK's current account deficit, which is coming in at around 4.5% of GDP is one.

是英國國內的財政赤字，將近高達國內生產毛額的4.5%。

The bank of England's new dovish tone is another.

英國銀行的保守派勢力是另一個。

But political risk is the flavor of this sour month when it comes to bashing the pound.

但是當英鎊大貶之際，政治風險為這個困難重重的月份雪上加霜。

It's wilting even before David Cameron has set a referendum date.

它在 David Cameron 擬定公投日期前就已開始枯萎。

Sterling came under some pressure ahead of the 2014's Scottish referendum and the 2015 general election.

2014 年的蘇格蘭公投以及 2015 年的英國大選皆加重了英磅的壓力。

As we see here, there's the Scottish referendum impact and there is the election impact.

我們可以看到蘇格蘭公投以及的英國大選的衝擊。

But the decline and the fall is nothing as big as it is at the moment and certainly, never this early.

但是它們帶來的衰退都沒有現在來的嚴重，也沒這麼早。

Market turmoil is the reason for its decline, not the prospect of the UK leaving the EU,

市場動盪才是衰退的主因，不是英國離開歐盟前錦堪憂。

serious though that may be.

雖然那也很嚴重。

If some market normality is restored, that may not stop that pound weakening further,

如果有一些市場恢復常態，或許無法使英鎊持續貶值，

but it may put Brexit and sterling's real value in a better context

但是那或許可以使英國退出歐盟和英國貨幣的真實價值被以比較公平的角度呈現，

and make investors a bit more sanguine about political risk.

並讓投資客對政治風險抱一點點的期望。