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  • Many of the sanctions against Iran's oil industry have been lifted.

    許多有關伊朗石油出口的禁令已被解除,

  • But how fast can the powerful OPEC producer ramp up production and exports?

    可是這個OPEC的石油大國能多快提升他們的產量與出口量呢?

  • Joining me to discuss this is Richard Mallinson, at Consultancy, Energy Aspect.

    和我討論此議題的是來自 Energy Aspect 的顧問 Richard Mallinson。

  • Richard, Iranian officials have in recent day, in recent months talked about ramping up production,

    Richard ,伊朗官方近期表示會提高石油產量,

  • immediately after lifting the sanctions by five hundred thousand barrels a day.

    解禁初期每天將增加五十萬桶,

  • How realistic is this?

    這可行性高嗎?

  • Well, clearly, the Iranian governments got some pretty ambitious plans.

    很明顯的,伊朗政府想要施展雄心抱負。

  • But I think, they're gonna have a little more of a gradual recovery.

    但我認為他們會經歷一段漸進式的復甦,

  • They're depending on two things, one is to take existing fields and ramp up the amount of those producing,

    他們的計畫取決於兩件事情,一是先鞏固現存油田,增加其產量,

  • and the second is to bring several new fields on line.

    再來則是開發新的油田。

  • But with the existing fields, they face years without western technology, western investment,

    但面對這些現存的油田,他們缺乏西方的技術和投資,

  • and I think that the maintenance state of those fields may limit how much they can bring back overnight.

    光是維護這些油田就沒辦法令伊朗立即翻身。

  • With the new fields, we've seen several years of delays,

    而對於新油田,伊朗尚未有新的進展,

  • and I think they're not necessarily all gonna be ready yet.

    我認為他們還沒有完全準備好。

  • What are your estimates, for the increase in production and also exports?

    你預估他們石油產量和出口量會增加多少?

  • So I think over the next couple of months,

    我認為在未來幾個月內,

  • we'll see Iranian production going up by say 250 to 400 thousand barrels a day,

    伊朗的日生產量可提升到二十五萬至四十萬桶,

  • depending on how many of those new fields come on line.

    看有多少新油田被開發。

  • And I think almost all of that is going to go into the export market

    而且我認爲這些增加的產量都將流入國外市場,

  • because of present, the domestic market is well-supplied,

    因為現在伊朗國內市場油量是充足的。

  • um... but it's exports say they really want to target, they really want to increase.

    但如果我們假設,伊朗很想將目標設定在增加出口量,

  • It's about then, can they find the buyers, can they

    那麼這就取決於他們能不能找到買家、能不能

  • as they get back into market, Europe, other parts of Asia,

    回到歐亞等市場,

  • how easy is it to market their crude and to displace other exporters.

    也要看他們是否能順利銷售原油和取代其他出口商。

  • We can see from this chart here that

    從圖表中我們可以觀察到,

  • production and exports have really taken a hit under sanctions.

    在受管制的情況下,伊朗的產量和出口量來到最高點,

  • But any increase from here on in ? You know what affect will that have on price?

    但從那之後有任何增長嗎? 你知道這會對油價產生什麼影響嗎?

  • Well, as we can see before the latest round of sanctions,

    正如同我們在最近一波管制前觀察到的,

  • the ones that are being lifted or implemented was producing about 3.6 million barrels a day

    在實行管制之下伊朗每日可產出三百六十萬桶,

  • and exports were close to 2 million barrels a day.

    而出口量曾接近每日兩百萬桶,

  • That fell off a long way, and Iran wants to bring all of that back as quickly as it can.

    在那之後數量開始下跌,而伊朗便希望可以盡快回到原有的水準。

  • The oil market was already oversupply, it has been for quite long time

    油市供給過剩已經有很長一段時間了

  • and that's what's really driven prices lower.

    這就是導致油價一直下跌的原因。

  • Um... the quicker and the more that Iran can bring back into the market,

    伊朗越早回到市場,讓越多油流入市場,

  • the more pressure it would put on prices,

    就會讓油價更加雪上加霜。

  • and certainly the moment of the focus or the concern in the oil market is that

    的確,現在油市備受關注和擔憂的,是

  • there gonna be a large return, very rapidly.

    伊朗大量、快速的回流。

  • But I think if, as we get later in the year, we'll get a better picture of the Iranian recovery,

    但我認爲,漸到年後,我們會更清楚伊朗復甦的走勢,

  • it's only going to be one of several moving parts

    這只是其中一個變動,

  • we're also going to be looking at the decline in the US production

    我們也會觀察到美國產量的下降、

  • the extent to which the rest of non-OPEC's supplies going down

    和其他非OPEC國石油供給下跌的程度,

  • and of course what other OPEC members are able to do.

    當然還有其他OPEC成員的對應之策。

  • And just on that point, oil prices are around 30 dollars a barrel.

    說到這個,油價現在大約每桶30美元

  • So what happens when, you know,

    所以,情況會變得如何,

  • you throw Saudi Arabia and other big Gulf producers into the mix

    如果把沙烏地阿拉伯和波斯灣地區的產油國考慮進來,

  • because they have shown no signs of relenting.

    因為他們沒有任何讓步的跡象,

  • Um... you know, how does that competition play out now?

    這樣的話,競爭的情況會呈什麼狀態?

  • Well, I think, from my point of view

    我個人認為,

  • this 30 dollar price is not sustainable for the global market in the long-run.

    30美元這種價格對於全球市場的長期發展並不是非常有利,

  • But, all of the OPEC producers are generally putting as much oil as they can into the market that,

    但,所有OPEC的產油國通常都會盡可能把可供給的油都流入市場

  • in part, about just generating whatever revenues they can to meet their budget,

    一部分是為了讓營收平衡預算,

  • but it's also about market share.

    一部分則是為了享有市佔率。

  • We've seen Saudi Arabia and Iraq increase their production significantly last year,

    我們看到去年沙烏地阿拉伯和伊拉克的產量大幅上升,

  • and they gonna want to sustain those levels,

    今年他們也會想要維持水準,

  • even if they can't necessarily increase production further.

    即使他們不一定能增加多少產量。

  • But they've also been putting oil into markets, particularly in Europe,

    但他們也有把石油流入市場,以歐洲居多,

  • where they anticipate Iran is going to want to return.

    因為他們預期歐洲會是伊朗回鍋之後的首要目標,

  • So, they're trying to get in there ahead of time

    因此他們想要搶先伊朗一步,

  • and prevent or make it more difficult for Iran to win those buyers back.

    來預防、或是讓伊朗更難找到買主。

  • And I think what we're likely to see is Iran, particularly but also Iraq

    我認為特別是伊朗,或是伊拉克,

  • willing to offer discounts, to offer favorable terms

    會願意提供優惠或開出有利的條件,

  • to try lure by as a way from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states,

    來搶走沙烏地阿拉伯和其他灣區產油國的生意,

  • and none of that is gonna make life within the OPEC anymore comfortable or anymore diplomatic.

    而這些措施並不會對OPEC成員之間的國際情勢有任何助益。

  • Um... you know, speaking of some of the Iranian officials, they've said that they are not very keen to lose out on price.

    說到伊朗官方,他們表示並不想在價格上居弱。

  • So what are the tactics could they deploy?

    那他們可以採用什麼應對方針呢?

  • Is it sort of oil-for-goods or other sorts of tactics, that means it may try and get ahead that way?

    是利用像石油期貨或諸如此類的方式來超前其他國嗎?

  • Well, this is a dilemma for Iran. On the one hand, it knows that to lure by it's back,

    這對伊朗來說是個兩難,一方面,伊朗知道要搶回生意,

  • it needs to offer something attractive of favorable terms.

    他們必需開出有利條件以吸引買主,

  • From the second, on the other hand, especially at current prices, if it offers cash discounts, that's gonna,

    另一方面,特別是以現在的油價來說,如果伊朗提供現金折抵,此舉將會

  • eat into the revenue it desperately needs for it's budget.

    使他們的營收虧損,進而影響到他們的預算。

  • So, I think we will see them looking at what creative ways can they build buying relationships,

    我認為,我們將來可以觀察到伊朗如何以新穎的方式來建立石油網絡,

  • so exchanges favorable terms for instance, longer payment terms said the price is there

    藉以交換有利條件,例如延長償還期限,雖然應付價格不變,

  • but refiners have a little bit longer before they need to meet that bill

    但煉油者可以稍後再把錢付清,

  • which can really help them with cash flow.

    如此一來產生的現金流便能對該國有所助益。

  • But all of it, I think it's also going to be complicated, by the US sanctions that remain in place,

    但總體來說,情況將會變得複雜,因為美國尚未解除對伊朗的經濟制裁,

  • in particular, the ones that will make it difficult for Iran to sell and transact in dollars

    尤其是那些讓伊朗難以作買賣和現金交易的制裁

  • because no US bank can be any part of the transaction.

    因為美國沒有一家銀行可以和伊朗作交易。

  • Thank you, Richard.

    謝謝你的分析,Richard。

Many of the sanctions against Iran's oil industry have been lifted.

許多有關伊朗石油出口的禁令已被解除,

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