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Oils headed dramatically lower since the start of 2016,
losing almost 20% in just 7 sessions.
That's been driven in part by continued concerns,
leading all the way back to the middle of 2014 to currently about supply overtaking demand.
However, past demands had been relatively robust up until now,
we are starting to see signs of slowing demand growth in key countries including the US and China.
China's relationship with the oil price is key.
China has driven global demand growth over the past decade, so any slowdown that we see in China's consumption of crude,
even if it continues to rise we just need to see that growth slow that will provoke a real concern to the oil market.
OPEC, the oil producers cartel, is reliant on rising global demand growth,
in order to absorb the surface and hopefully start see the market stabilize at a higher level later this year.
In the short run, the oil price can become unbounded.
If it falls below the $30 a barrel mark,
we could see further selling and traders trying to target at $20 level,
which some investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Citi and Morgan-Stanley have all said the possibility in an extreme scenario.
Whereby either storage tanks become too full,
or currency movements lead to greater pressure coming on the oil prices as a result of the strength in the dollar,
hitting all dollar-priced commodities.
However, we may also start to see more projects shutting in around those level,
which could provide a degree of stability for the price.
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【金融時報】90秒解釋全球石油現況 Oil sell off in 90 seconds | FT Markets

85 分類 收藏
Kristi Yang 發佈於 2016 年 1 月 14 日    Mandy Lin 翻譯    Kristi Yang 審核
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