Stock markets across the world of January have been mixed certainly no continuation of the great drama we saw on Monday,

一月份的全球的股市顯然沒有延續禮拜一的戲劇化，

which does look for the moment, as though it was largely technical.

在那一刻的確是如此，即使它十分技術性。

There was one very interesting development, however, which is the continuing fall in the Pound sterling.

有個十分有趣的發展，就是英鎊的持續貶值。

As you can see from this chart, here, the pound is now almost below its lowest point from last year, set (??) just before the general election,

這裡如你所見，英鎊現在已處在比去年最低還要更低的位置，就在英國大選前，

which will bring it to a low since 2010, and there are clear reasons for this.

這將帶到自 2010 年的低谷，而這有清楚的原因解釋。

If we take a look at the next chart, we're looking here, it's core inflation, excluding food and oil,

如果我們看看下一個圖表，現在我們看到的是核心通膨，不包括糧食和石油。

there's things that central banks can't control, and play near a clear guides to how central banks might act.

這些是央行無法控制的，但也清楚的指點央行將採取的對策。

You can see that the UK had a genuine inflation problem in the years immediately after the crisis, which did eventually come under control, for a long time appeared to be largely in line with the US.

你可以看到，早在災難發生後緊接著英國就有了通膨問題，雖然最後被控制下來了，但在當時英國與美國一同面對此難關許久。

But at this point, UK core inflation is far below that in the US that plainly gives strong bilests (???) to the notion that we have a divergence in managing policy to look forward to.

但就在這個時間點，英國的核心通膨遠低於*我們對於管理政策方面看法的分歧。

People are now beginning to talk about the bank that are not even raising rates at all this year

關於今年銀行甚至不升息的討論已開始不脛而走。

when it was once very popular decision suggests that they would follow swiftly after the FED that kind of divergence strengthens the dollar and weakens the pound.

自美國央行採取的強化美元削弱英鎊後，曾經升息是大眾認為英國央行會立即採取的分歧對策，

There's also something else going on though, which we can perhaps illustrate if we take a look at this chart,

有其他的事情上演著。如果我們看這張表格，我們也許就能略知一二，

which compares the Euro and sterling against the dollar since 2010.

這是自 2010 年以來歐元和英鎊對美元的表。

Naturally, the Euro has done far worse over that period, although you can the family resemblance between the two.

通常來說，歐元還曾處在比那段時間更慘的境地，但你仍可以看出兩者之間如家人般的相似性。

We all know why Euro has done worse, primarily it's had a weaker economy and that's been because of great concerns about its very existence whether the Euro zone can hold together as a political entity.

我們都知道歐元曾落到比那更慘的低谷，首要來說它是個較弱的經濟體，而那是因為全球對歐元區是否能維繫保持他們的政治實體抱持強烈的疑慮。

Now entering this year, we begin to enter a season when there are some questions over

現在進入這年關，我們開始進入了一個有一些問題存在的季度

whether the United Kingdom can hold together as an entity, and whether it will remain in the European Union.

像是英國是否能維持經濟實體，與它是否要留在歐盟。

We have the Brexit referendum to look forward to.

我們還有脫盟公投可以預期。

I'm not going to try to predict the result of that referendum for you, but the key point as we have all seen from the European experience is that

我不會試著預測公投的結果給你，但重要的是從我們都有看到的歐洲經驗來說

if you see a rise in a perceived (?) odds of a rupture, obviously a Brexit might well lead the Scotland leading the UK.

如果你看到敵對覺察的機率明顯上升，很明顯地脫盟公投會帶領蘇格蘭、帶領英國。

All you need to see is a rise in the perceived (??) odds that the Brexit referendum succeeds from here for sterling to fall quite a lot further.

你所需看到的是一個上升的覺察機率，從那時貶值後的英國脫盟公投，英鎊已跌到更低了。

That is why people are beginning to position themselves for such an eventuality.

那就是為什麼人們開始把自己定位為這種可能性的原因。

And it's why it's difficult to be betting too enthusiastically on sterling to strengthen anytime soon unless polls really starts (to) convince every one that Brexit isn't going to happen.

而這就是為什麼對於英鎊在何時回穩抱有熱情是很難的，除非民調數字真正開始說服每個人英國離開歐盟是不會發生的。