Name: TEDx】2025:描繪中國的未來｜鍾傑浩｜TEDxKFAS (【TEDx】2025: Charting China’s Future | Jae Ho Chung | TEDxKFAS)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:53:50.000Z
Duration: 17 min
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

Hi everyone, I'd like to start by thanking the organizers

程度副詞

for this excellent venue, for a very important discussion.

It is my great pleasure to share with all of you

some of my thoughts on the future of China.

I wish I could say the same thing as what Kevin Rudd said,

But somehow, predicting the future is a very difficult task.

First, social scientists are not very well equipped to predict the future,

as we've seen in the collapse of the Soviet Union,

the financial crisis in East Asia, and so on and so forth.

Another reason is that black swans actually show up, so it's very difficult.

Particularly, when it comes down to China, the future of China,

and I have to talk about it in just 15 minutes.

So I'll try my best to give some answers.

These are the two cartoons that I adopted

from South China Morning Post early this year.

As you can see, in the cartoon on the right side,

to maintain the growth rate of 7% or higher.

And then, on the left side, this cartoon says

there are three new think tanks starting up in China.

And then the guy sitting at the desk says we don't need any more think tanks,

we need "know" tanks because they give me some answers.

I hope I can give you answers by the end of this 15-minute presentation

but even if I cannot, please bear with me.

from a publisher called Rowman & Littlefield,

and this book grew out of an international conference

In this book, I put together eight internationally renowned experts

to chart China's future from what we had back in 2004.

In that book, we laid out eight possible scenarios for future China.

If you look at the column on the left, these are the three scenarios

that I'd like to take off from the list at this point.

Although we considered these three possibilities back in 2006,

but I think these three scenarios are no longer plausible or applicable

from the vantage point of 2015 which is now.

Yugoslavia doesn't exist anymore, it's completely disintegrated;

Now you can refer to Serbia, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and so on.

So I don't think this will be the future for China.

Indonesia, back in 2004, when we were actually doing research for this book,

Indonesia was economically very backward,

politically it was not a democratic system,

a very strong diplomatic or strategic presence at all.

So we didn't think China's future will go down the path of Indonesia,

Latin America: a lot of people compare high Gini coefficient,

that means income inequalities, in China to those of Latin America.

But Latin America's diplomatic strategic presence is not felt.

Differently, China is now rising and is making its imprints everywhere

so I think the Latin America model is also off the list.

If you look at the column in the middle, there are three models.

Indian model, back in 2004, India's economy was not that great.

particularly from the viewpoint of Northeast Asia,

that China's path might actually resemble that of India in the future.

So there is a possibility for these three models in the middle,

Soviet Union: as you all know what happened to Soviet Union,

now it's Russia, it's now still a semi-global power,

although its global reach has been constricted considerably.

that China might go down actually the path of the Soviet Union,

but the possibility as I see it is not that high.

Finally, the French model: France is a global power,

but France cannot make international rules and norms by itself.

by vetoing what others are willing to do, particularly the United States.

So these three possibilities in the middle column still remain,

but I'd say the likelihood is not very great.

If you want me to bet, my bet would be on the column on the right,

either the Chinese model or the American model.

It means an authoritarian political system

with a highly competitive market-based economic system.

China has been successful in sustaining this particular model.

If China really should prove successful in the future as well, and I think

that will have enormous implications scholarly, as well as policy-wise.

The American model: that is market-based, highly competitive, efficient system

as well as a politically democratic system.

I don't know, but if you want me to bet, among these eight models,

probably China will go down either the Chinese model

I think, down the road, probably the easiest task

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TEDx】2025:描繪中國的未來｜鍾傑浩｜TEDxKFAS (【TEDx】2025: Charting China’s Future | Jae Ho Chung | TEDxKFAS)

task

path

system

military