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  • Hey guys Julia here for DNews

    哈囉,這是DNews,我是Julia

  • Coming up in December of 2015, the UN will host the 21st Conference of Parties in Paris.

    2015年12月聯合國將於巴黎召開締約方第21次會議(COP21)

  • The focus of this year’s COP21 will be climate change. Most of the leading nations in the

    今年,COP21聚焦於氣候變遷,多數領導國家

  • world have been asked to pledge to keep the rise in global temperature under 2 degrees celsius.

    必須答應共同把暖化溫度控制在2℃以下

  • It’s clear that a sharp curb in co2 and greenhouse gas emissions is needed.

    很顯然我們必須大量減排CO2等溫室氣體

  • Unfortunately, not all countries agree on how best to go about that.

    遺憾的是,各個國家在作法上難以達成共識

  • There’s two main plans: one says everyone gets a per capita cut. Everyone, all nations,

    有兩派說法:一派堅持減少人均排碳,地球上每個人

  • have an equal responsibility to curb emissions. The other says that countries who polluted

    都有減排責任;另一派則表示已開發國家

  • more in the past have more responsibility to curb their emissions, so that those that

    過去排放大量污染,減排責任較大

  • polluted less can have some wiggle room to still grow.

    而目前污染較少的國家應有適度發展空間

  • But one study from the Center for International Climate and Environmental ResearchOslo (CICERO)

    不過,奧斯陸國際氣候與環境研究中心(CICERO)

  • found that the US, EU, and Chinese emission pledges leave very little room for

    指出:美國、歐盟、及中國的承諾

  • other countries to emit in a 2°C world. Those countries say their pledges arefair and

    其他國家幾乎沒有排放的餘地。這些國家認為此承諾「公平

  • ambitiousbut might not be enough to keep things cool enough.

    雄心壯志」,但顯然仍不足以冷卻地球

  • The 2 degrees target was decided back in 2009 at another UN conference in Copenhagen, where

    2℃的目標訂於2009年的哥本哈根聯合國峰會

  • in the Copenhagen Accord countries recognizedthe scientific view that the increase in

    當時締約方一致認同「科學觀點指出

  • global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius". But why did they choose that number?

    全球溫度上升不應超過2℃」。但為何選這個數字呢?

  • Well that number can be traced back to two papers published in the mid-70s by Professor

    這就要追溯回70年代的兩篇論文

  • of Economics William Nordhaus at Yale University. In these papers he said thatIf there were

    發表人是耶魯大學經濟系的Nordhaus教授,他說:「若是

  • global temperatures more than 2 orabove the current average temperature, this would

    全球溫度從現在開始上升超過2或3℃

  • take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several

    那麼未來氣候的劇變將遠遠超過

  • hundred thousand years”.

    幾十萬年來的觀察」

  • Ice core sampling in the mid 80s confirmed that two degrees above pre-industrial levels

    80年代中期的冰芯取樣證實,自工業革命後上升2℃

  • hadn’t been seen on the planet in at least the last 100,000 years. Another report in

    的確是十萬年來不曾出現的

  • the early 90s reconfirmed that the consensus that two degrees isan upper limit beyond

    另一項90年代的報告再次證實:2℃是「臨界點

  • which the risks of grave damage to ecosystems... are expected to increase rapidly”.

    很快就會達到…屆時生態系統將面臨空前危機」

  • Since then, that number has had huge visibility as a “speed limitof sorts. As we might

    自此,人們就把這個數字看得和「速限」一樣重要,一旦

  • pass that number, the worse effects on the climate and the faster those effects will

    超過,將發生史上最糟的效應,而且會加速

  • happen.

    發生

  • Effects like global sea level rise. A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change

    海平面上升是一例,《自然氣候變遷》有一則研究指出

  • found that levels could rise 1.5 and 4 meters by the year 2300 if the Earth warms at least 2 degrees.

    到了2300年,地球若暖化2℃以上,海平面將可能上升1.5~4公尺

  • The effects of which weve talked about in previous episodes. Links for those

    前幾集我們介紹過一些災難效應,若有興趣

  • down below.

    請看下面

  • Not only could oceans rise, but rivers could run dry, according to a study published in

    研究指出,不止海平面上升,河床也將乾涸

  • the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. In analyzing water scarcity,

    這項研究來自《自然科學會報A》,分析水資源短缺

  • researchers found that water supplies would dwindle thanks to more pressure from a growing population.

    科學家指出,水資源減少,歸因於全球人口有增無減

  • If the temperatures climb even higher, to four degrees, some river beds will

    若溫度攀升至4℃,有些河床會乾凅

  • be drier but some might be wetter, which could put more pressure on stressed out governments.

    而有些地方則會有水災; 這會讓早已焦頭爛額的政府忙上加忙

  • As the temperatures get worse, the effects will be more extreme.

    溫度越高,災難效應越極端

  • In another study also published in the same journal, researchers found other effects include

    《自然科學會報A》有另一項研究列出其他效應:

  • no sea ice in the arctic in the summer, coral reef die outs, melting of permafrost which

    北極浮冰到了夏季將全部融化、珊瑚礁死光、永凍土融化

  • will release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, anddie-back of the Amazon

    釋出大量溫室氣體、亞馬遜雨林將消失

  • forest”. The study also predicts that semi-arid and arid places, like sub-Saharan Africa will

    研究預測漠南非洲等乾燥或半乾燥氣候帶

  • be even drier, they predict the collapse of the agricultural system in that region.

    將嚴重乾旱,可能造成當地農業生產系統崩解

  • So it’s safe to say that if the world warms up, as it looks like it very well might, Earth

    所以絕對可以這麼說:地球非常有可能暖化,一旦暖化

  • is going to look a lot different.

    地球樣貌就會完全改觀

  • Were witnessing one of the effects of a climate change right now! Arctic ice levels

    我們已經見識了其中一項氣候效應:北極浮冰數量

  • have been the lowest scientists have ever seen. So what happens if all the ice melts?

    創新低,前所未見。若是冰全融了該怎麼辦?

  • What changes have you noticed, perhaps longer summers?

    你還注意到哪些效應嗎?例如夏季變長?

  • Tell us about it down in the comments below

    請在底下留言

  • Don't forget to hit those like and subscribe buttons, so you don't miss a single DNews episode.

    .別忘記like及訂閱我們的頻道,便不會錯過任何一集DNews 囉!

Hey guys Julia here for DNews

哈囉,這是DNews,我是Julia

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