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  • When the Fed decided its next move was to do nothing, that left investors with a problem they've had for about eight years.

    當美國聯準會決定按兵不動時,此舉讓投資者陷入過去八年飽受的困擾。

  • How to get income in a DIRT low income world?

    要如何在一個低薪、存款利率又低的環境下獲益?

  • I'm Jack Otter, editor of Barrons.com, here with Priscilla Hancock, who is the global fixed income strategist at JPMorgan.

    我是Jack Otter,巴倫週刊的編輯,這是摩根資產管理的環球固定收益策略師Priscilla Hancock。

  • So, let's start off with your big picture view of where the Feds non-move leaves us in looking at fixed income?

    我們首先來談談您如何看待聯準會不採取行動對固定收益的影響呢?

  • Well, it's a good question. I think it's somewhat a scratching in the heads.

    這是個很好的問題,也是個相當棘手的問題。

  • If you think about the reason the Fed would typically tighten, it's because growth and/or inflation are getting out of control in the United States.

    如果你去想聯準會採取限制的原因,大致是因為美國的貨幣升值或是通貨已經無限度地膨脹。

  • Clearly we don't have either of those situations.

    然而顯然我們並未有任何以上的狀況。

  • What they do have now is a situation where they're trying to figure out when they can actually just remove the extraordinary accommodation that they've been putting in.

    現在面臨的狀況是他們何時才能真正地擺脫先前的貸款。

  • And the U.S. numbers alone would suggest that we should do that.

    而美國方面希望我們能替他們解決這個問題。

  • What they told us last week was, well, the U.S. numbers may look like they're okay, but we're looking at the fact that we've had a strengthening dollar, we have weak commodity prices

    上禮拜美國表示一切看似沒問題,然而現今美元日漸穩固,物價卻搖擺不定,

  • And there's a slow down happening in the emerging markets.

    此外市場的成長也漸趨緩慢,

  • And we're not quite sure how dramatic that slow down is, and because we're concerned about that, we're gonna be cautious.

    我們無法切確得知趨緩的程度,因此我們必須更小心翼翼地持續關注。

  • And if you look back in history, there've been times when everything looked okay here, but there were global problems that did reverberate back to this country.

    回顧歷史上那些看似風平浪靜的時候,卻有潛在的全球問題影響國內。

  • That's exactly right. If you look at the late 90s for instance, you had a similar situation.

    沒錯,像是在1990年代後期,就有個確切的案例。

  • The Fed tightening the face of that, and those times, the big emerging market partner was Mexico, put too much pressure on them.

    當時聯準會採取緊縮政策,正值新興市場合作夥伴墨西哥的快速成長,這使得美國背負巨大的壓力。

  • You know, a strong dollar and higher rates here, increases the cost of borrowing for emerging markets.

    而穩固的美元與較高的利率增加了借貸給新興市場的成本,

  • So, it created a crisis, and I think the Fed is concerned about that, they've looked around the world since the crisis.

    因而導致危機。我想聯準會自從那次的危機之後,開始更謹慎觀察全球現況。

  • We've had twelve central banks that have tightened, all twelve have since eased.

    我們擁有十二家核心的中央銀行在寬鬆政策後便緊縮了。

  • So, you really almost can't be too cautious here.

    所以在此我們必須更加小心謹慎。

  • So, into this world, where should investors be putting their money?

    在這樣的全球環境下,投資者該如何投資呢?

  • Well, if you think about that, that probably means that there's an opportunity for duration, buying longer bonds, because long term rates are gonna stay low.

    其實長期投資是很有機會的,像是長期債券。因為長時間來看利率仍會維持在低點。

  • And they possibly will stay low even once the Fed raises rates.

    即便聯準會提高了利率,也可能繼續維持在低點。

  • But I think you have to be looking at some of the risks sectors today, and you recognize that, in the United States,

    但若觀察當前的風險行業,值得注意的是

  • the economy is doing pretty well, so corporate credit has a very attractive top line.

    現今美國的經濟算相當地不錯,也因此企業信用的表現皆十分良好。

  • Defaults are very low, particularly in the high yield sector, and you're getting paid a pretty attractive coupon there.

    不履行的狀況相對少,特別在高收益的股票板塊,配息更為可觀。

  • In fact, spreads have increased 175 basis points since a year ago.

    實際上從去年截至今日,價差已經提高了175個基點。

  • You can get over five percents spread in the U.S. high yield market, ignoring energy and metals in mining

    美國高收益市場甚至獲取超過五個百分點的價差,不包含礦產業的能源與金屬。

  • And when you say spread, you're referring to the distance between what that bond is paying and the equivalent treasury bond.

    而當我們提到價差,就可一併論及國債與一般債券間的投資報酬率。

  • An equivalent treasury bond, which is about a four to four and a half year treasury bond, that's about the average duration of the high yield market.

    等值國債一般是四到四年半,與其他高收益市場平均年限差不多,

  • But you're making an extinction between high yield and then just standard corporate credit, which you say is exposed to some other things that might be a little dangerous.

    但是屏除了高收益,只有一般標準的企業信用,對投資者來說是有些風險的。

  • Well that's exactly right. I mean you're seeing corporate credit strength across the board, but when you look at the investment grade sectors, those credits that are rated triple B or higher.

    這樣說並沒有錯! 當國債的企業信用在機構部門間舉足輕重時,在投資級債券方面的信用卻是達到3B甚至更高的。

  • Many U.S. markets have global exposure, think of P&G for instance, and I'm not using them, only for illustrative purposes.

    很多美國的市場都有全球曝光的效應,像是寶僑國際,我沒有使用他們產品,只是拿來做例子。

  • But if you think about it, well, they have a lot of global demand.

    而同時值得思考的是全球對寶僑的需索無度。

  • And the bottom line is that the global markets are slowing, that could put some pressure on them.

    它的年度帳面利潤顯示出國際市場的成長趨緩,這使得他們有不少壓力。

  • The other thing about the investment grade sector we're seeing is that, you know, money is cheap.

    此外,投資級的股票板塊中我們可以看到貨幣貶值。

  • And with cheap money, the question is, do they start borrowing too much? Do they increase their leverage? Does it get them into trouble?

    此時該正視的問題是他們是否過度借貸? 能增加以小搏大的可能性嗎? 或是會自己招來麻煩呢?

  • Not in the next three to six months, but over the longer term.

    這不僅僅是三個月或半年的問題,而是與時俱進的。

  • One more area of interest, particularly to people with higher incomes in taxable accounts, municipal bonds, do you think there is some value there?

    另一方面,特別是對於持有收益較高的應稅帳戶、地方政府債券的人口中,你覺得對他們是有利可圖的嗎?

  • Yes, I mean they're cheap to taxable bonds, and what I mean by that is you can get rates in some parts of the curve that are the same as tax rates and it's tax free.

    沒錯,對應稅的債券來說相對便宜,也就是說他們能在曲線中去獲取和應稅金額同等的費率,也就是相當於減稅或甚至免稅。

  • So if you're in a higher tax bracket, municipals are very attractive, and the other thing about municipals is that when rates do move up, if they move up,

    所以如果你是在應稅額高的那群人,地方政府債券就對你相當有利。

  • they typically outperform, in other words they don't lose as much value as comparable taxable bonds.

    不只如此,當利率提高時通常高得驚人,也就是說它不會比其他應稅債券來得差。

  • A couple sectors, you have to be careful of them in municipal market, higher education is one of them, that probably surprises people.

    有些類別在政府債券市場中需更加謹慎,高等教育就是其中一個。這或許是出乎意料之外的。

  • If you think about, not the Harvards of the world, but if you think about the changes that are happening in the educational system,

    一想到高等教育,不只是哈佛,更要考慮到整個教育體系的面臨的改變,

  • a lot of people going to community college, that's gonna put pressure on sort of that middle and lower tier of small liberal arts colleges.

    像是日前很多人前往的社區大學,就對初等或中等的文科學院有所影響,

  • They just don't have the number of people that can pay those high tuition. So, we're cautious about that sector.

    因為付得起高額學費人並不多。我們需更加注意這個類別的人。

  • Great insight! Thanks so much, Priscilla.

    非常棒的見解! 謝謝你,Pricilla。

  • My pleasure, thank you.

    謝謝,這是我的榮幸。

When the Fed decided its next move was to do nothing, that left investors with a problem they've had for about eight years.

當美國聯準會決定按兵不動時,此舉讓投資者陷入過去八年飽受的困擾。

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