at the end of the day it overcomes all. why is it our exorbitant privilege?

終究是船到橋頭自然直。為何那會是我們的過度特權呢？

I think exorbitant privilege in the sense the U.S. actually can get away with policies that no other country can,

過度特權之所以存在，是因為美國得以採用其他國家都無法實施的政策，並可以全身而退。

I mean think about this, when the Fed was doing QE for five years,

試想，在聯準會實施量化寬鬆的五年間，

other countries might have basically brought on a crisis, the U.S. on the other hand was able to watch the recovery off this.

其他國家可能遭遇危機，但另一方面，美國卻可以靜觀其變。

So I think that's the main thing, but I think what we need to basically recognize is, there is now bifurcation of the dollar in the market.

所以我想這是最主要的原因。但我們也需要認知到，美金在市場上面臨著兩種截然不同的狀況。

Dollars doing very well against EM currencies, against commodity currencies, but against the Euro and the Yen or the likes,

美金在表現上大勝新興市場貨幣和商品貨幣，但是遭遇到歐元、日幣或其他貨幣時，

the dollar has been actually taking a bit of a back seat because the problem line is, as China devalues, China slows,

美金就要屈居後位了。問題在於，人民幣一旦貶值，中國的經濟發展趨緩，

you know to the extent that it's gonna lead the Fed to basically hike more slowly,

某種程度上，這使聯準會升息的步調趨緩，

this has not been such good news against the Euro.

如果要和歐元抵抗，這可不是一個好消息。

OK, help me with your Yen callouts, three four and five years, where is Yen three four five years from now?

借助一下你對日幣的預測，在未來的三到五年間，它的成長趨勢會如何呢？

I think the Yen is going to be a tad weaker, but I think the short-term, in fact if anything, the Yen is probably going to be stronger.

日幣會呈現疲軟狀態。但我想短期內，如果沒有意外，它會變得越發強勢。

Think about it, going to tomorrow. If the Fed were to hike rates, the Yen is going to be stronger because the stock market is going to go down.

你想，就以明天為例。如果聯準會決定升息，日幣也會因股市下跌而茁壯。

If the Fed doesn't hike rates, the Yen is probably going to be stronger too.

即使聯準會不調升利率，日幣可能還是會越發強勢。

The differential between Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, and Goldman Sachs, is to a weaker Yen,

美銀美林與高盛之間的差別在於，它面對的是更無力的日幣，

through some further form of Abenomics, that implies a Rubin-like dollar, doesn't it?

透過安倍經濟學

I think to some extent, yes, absolutely. But I think to the extent that the U.S. until now is willing to accept further Yen weakness,

某個程度上來說沒錯。但我認為，儘管以前美國願意容忍日幣的疲弱不振，

but I think those days are coming to an end. I think somebody in Detroit is already calling up somebody in Washington, somebody in Washington is calling up...

但我想那段日子就要結束了。某個在底特律（製造商）的人已經準備致電華府，而華盛頓方面則準備聯絡......

Exactly! This is my point, you know David Woo, that this is not solved by economists,

正是如此！這就是我的論點，David Woo 你也知道這事情不是經濟學能解決的，

it's solved by manufacturers like Detroit, or frankly by the state department, isn't it?

而是由像底特律這樣的製造商，或講白了，是由國務院經手，對嗎？

Absolutely, especially now with Donald Trump, and basically Mario, basically Rubio talking up, you know basically,

完全正確，尤其在唐納川普、馬里奧．德拉吉（歐洲銀行行長）和馬可．盧比歐（美國總統參選人）的提倡下，

the whole story about China, Japan taking jobs away from the U.S., I think you have to believe that sooner or later the U.S. will be forced to join the currency war.

你必須相信，遲早有一天，美國會被迫捲入這場貨幣戰爭當中。

I gotta ask this question, very critical here. Have you been advising Mr. Trump on economic policy?

我必須問個有點犀利的問題。你是否有提供川普先生經濟政策的意見？

Not yet.

還沒。

What you're talking about Trump and Rubio also to some extent,

既然你提到川普和盧比歐，某個程度上來說，

it's the great American past-time to predict our own decline, but does anything threaten?

美國人最大的消遣就是預估自己經濟的衰退，但是否有什麼威脅呢？

Anywhere in the future, this exorbitant privilege?

將來是否有什麼會威脅這樣的過度特權？

Not, not really. I mean I think in fact this whole SDR business around China is a fig leaf.

不，不完全。我認為中國的特別提款權只是一塊遮羞布。

In fact, if the U.S. is in an invariable position and nobody else is in right now.

事實上，如果美國正處在一個屹立不搖的地位，那沒有任何國家能與我們並駕齊驅。

So there's no question the U.S. is coming back, however, the question is can the U.S. decouple from the rest of the world as the rest of the world slows.

無疑地，美國會東山再起；但問題是，我們是否能在全球經濟一片慘澹的情況下別開生路呢？

And I think at what point will the U.S. be forced to join the currency war, because the dollar and the renminbi remain the two strongest currency in the world,

美國之所以會被迫捲入貨幣戰爭，是因為美金和人民幣同為世界最強勢的兩大貨幣，

we'll just see what the Chinese, no longer the one with strong currency, the question is how much longer the U.S. will find a strong currency desirable.

當中國不再擁有強勢貨幣後，問題就會變成，美國還要多久才會發現強勢貨幣的好處。

And because so much is invoiced in dollar as well, you know, the currency war works better for us than it does for anybody else.

相對於其他國家來說，貨幣戰爭對我們更加有利。

Exactly. There is no question.

完全正確，這是無庸置疑的。

Until? For our viewers out there that don't know Modigliani, or viewers who don't really understand reflation versus inflation,

但直到何時？對那些不認識莫迪里安尼（義大利經濟學家），或分不清楚「通貨再膨脹」與「通貨膨脹」的觀眾來說，

what is the trip that turns us from a benevolent strong dollar into a troubled strong dollar?

是怎樣一段曲折離奇的旅程，讓我們從博愛的強勢貨幣搖身一變，成為多災多難的強勢貨幣？

I think you know, honestly, this is where renminbi would devalue, which is my prediction,

關於這點，我想你我都清楚，這正是人民幣會貶值的起點，而這也是我的預測。

I think my prediction is that the biggest story in the next six months is gonna be an acceleration in the renminbi devaluation,

我的預測是，在往後六個月內，最大的新聞會是人民幣的加速貶值，

that's gonna basically create competitive devaluation around the world,

而這將會造成全球性的競爭性貶值：

commodity prices are gonna come down sharply, it's gonna be highly deflation for the U.S. That's where the problem is.

物價將會迅速的下跌，美國將會進入高度通貨緊縮的狀態。這就是問題所在。

Okay, David Woo, thank you so much with this core call of a second derivative of what we will see in the Yen,

David Woo，感謝你參與我們的討論，讓我們得以聚焦在日幣的展望上，

we've got calculus into the six o'clock hour, that's cool.

＊我們在六點鐘的時候有微積分，這真是太酷了。