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【1. Priming】 If I talk to you about food and then I show you this
you'll put the letter "U" in there. If I talk to you about cleanliness first
and then I show you this, you'll put the letter "A" in there.
This is what is called priming. By simply priming people, you can significantly affect their decisions.
There was a study where a wine store played French music on some days and German music on others,
and the customers of course would never think that this would affect anything,
but they tended to buy more French wines on the days when French music was played, and
more German wines on the days when German music was played.
This is also one of the reasons why when you walk into a store that promotes health and
freshness like Whole Foods, you'll probably be greeted with fresh flowers and fruit.
It primes you for freshness. The first thing you see will never be canned tuna,
even though you can definitely buy plenty of canned stuff in there.
【2. The halo effect】If we really like someone, we tend to really
like everything they do and say. If they say something average, we might think that it's
the best thing we've ever heard, and if they say something stupid, we tend to just
go along with it anyway. And you probably have someone you really admire and if they
do something stupid you'll say, "Oh whatever… Everyone makes mistakes…" But then if
someone you didn't like did the exact same thing, you'd be outraged.
And the attractiveness of a person along with other irrelevant factors plays a huge role
in how much we like what they say and do. If we're presented with two women who committed
the same crime, we're much more likely to give a lighter punishment to the more attractive
one. And of course, that doesn't make sense! They committed the same crime! But that is
the halo effect. So next time an attractive person or someone you've put on a pedestal
is trying to give you advice, ask yourself, "Is this advice valuable because it's
it's actually valuable, or am I blinded by how he looks, or how big his house is, or how much I like him?
【3. The Hindsight Bias】You probably know people who constantly feel
the need to say, "Well, I knew that was going to happen…", "I knew that stock
was going to fall…", "I knew that we were going to lose that war…", "I knew
that stock was going to rise…". This is called the hindsight bias. We tend to be experts
at events after they have already occurred. It's really weird how you know exactly which
stock is going to rise and which stock is going to fall because you're completely broke
If you actually knew that information, you'd be a really rich person by now.
And the hindsight bias can go from just annoying to simply dangerous when we start to blame
other people for not being able to see something so obvious. You blame the government for
making a certain decision and think, "How could they not see that?' Your girlfriend hits
a pothole and you get a flat tire and you get all pissed off, "How did she not see
that pothole? "Well… Because if you were in government, you might have thought that
the decision was actually a good decision at the time it was made, and if you were driving
and looking in the mirror so you could make a turn, you might have not seen the pothole yourself.
So don't be that annoying person
who feels the need to tell everyone how you knew exactly who was going to win the finals and how the
stock was obviously going to rise. And definitely don't blame others for something that seems
so obvious just because it's already happened. Of course it's obvious now, but it wasn't
obvious before it actually happened.
So the 3 big ideas are… 1. Priming. Realize the power of even the
simplest suggestions and what that does to people's behavior.
2. The halo effect. Stop thinking everything someone says is pure gold just because you
really like them. Chances are everything they say isn't that flawless.
3. And the hindsight bias. Realize that anyone can be an expert after an event has already occurred.
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別被自己騙了!三個常見的思考偏誤一次學懂! (PRIMING, HALO EFFECT, HINDSIGHT BIAS - THINKING, FAST AND SLOW (PART 3))

88779 分類 收藏
羅紹桀 發佈於 2015 年 11 月 25 日    沒事兒 翻譯    James 審核
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