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  • We can cut violent deaths around the world

    我們可在未來30年內

  • by 50 percent in the next three decades.

    將世界各地暴亂的死亡人數 降低 50 %,

  • All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,

    我們要做的就是 讓他殺死亡率每年下降 2.3 %,

  • and we'll hit that target.

    然後我們就能達標了。

  • You don't believe me?

    你不相信我嗎?

  • Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world

    世界上首屈一指的 流行病學和犯罪學專家們

  • seem to think we can, and so do I,

    似乎認為我們行的,我也是一樣,

  • but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.

    前提是假使我們看緊我們的城市, 尤其是最脆弱的這一些。

  • You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.

    我一直在關心這個問題,

  • For the last 20 years, I've been working

    過去 20 年來,我工作的國家和城市

  • in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,

    充斥著衝突、動亂或恐怖主義,

  • violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.

    甚者樣樣皆有;

  • I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,

    我曾經由俄羅斯到索馬利亞 追蹤過軍火走私者、

  • I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,

    與阿富汗以及剛果的軍閥共事過、

  • I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.

    在哥倫比亞、海地、斯里蘭卡、 巴布亞紐幾內亞等地計算過屍體。

  • You don't need to be on the front line, though,

    縱使你不在第一線上

  • to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?

    也會感覺到地球正迅速失控吧,

  • There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.

    感覺到國際動盪是新常態。

  • But I want you to take a closer look,

    不過請大家仔細觀察,

  • and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,

    就會發現暴亂的地理位置正在改變,

  • because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime

    因為深陷衝突和犯罪的 並不是我們的國家,

  • as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.

    而是城市:阿勒坡、巴馬科、加拉加斯、 埃比爾、摩蘇爾、的黎波里、薩爾瓦多。

  • Violence is migrating to the metropole.

    暴力正向大都市遷移。

  • And maybe this is to be expected, right?

    也許這是預料中之事,對吧?

  • After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.

    畢竟現今絕大多數人住在城市 而不是鄉間,

  • Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.

    600個城市——包括30個巨型城市, 就佔了全球GDP的三分之二。

  • But when it comes to cities,

    不過當說到城市的時候,

  • the conversation is dominated by the North,

    話題大都由北部地區主導,

  • that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,

    所謂北部地區, 是指北美、西歐、澳洲和日本,

  • where violence is actually at historic lows.

    這些地方暴動確實是史上的低點;

  • As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,

    因此,城市的熱衷者聊的是 城市的勝利、創新階級的勝利、

  • of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.

    說市長們將會管治世界。

  • Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,

    我希望市長們有天真會管治這世界,

  • but, you know, the fact is,

    不過事實是

  • we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.

    我們沒有真正地聽到 南部地區的聲音和形勢。

  • And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,

    所謂南部地區,我是指 拉丁美洲、非洲、亞洲

  • where violence in some cases is accelerating,

    在這些地方,暴力不斷加劇,

  • where infrastructure is overstretched,

    基礎建設過度匱乏、

  • and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.

    治理有時候只是抱負而非實事。

  • Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,

    目前,一些外交官、 發展專家、專業人士在關注

  • they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states

    會決定21世紀安全的 四五十個脆弱城市。

  • that will shape security in the 21st century.

    會決定21世紀安全的 四五十個脆弱城市。

  • I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.

    我認為:這些脆弱城市 會直接決定未來的秩序和穩定。

  • That's because warfare and humanitarian action

    因為戰爭和人道救助行動

  • are going to be concentrated in our cities,

    即將要匯聚到我們的城市裡,

  • and the fight for development,

    為發展而起的鬥爭,

  • whether you define that as eradicating poverty,

    無論是消滅貧窮、

  • universal healthcare, beating back climate change,

    普及醫療保健,還是擊退氣候變化,

  • will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.

    成敗關鍵都在城市中的破屋、殘樓、貧民窟。

  • I want to talk to you about four megarisks

    我要跟你們講四項巨大風險,

  • that I think will define fragility in our time,

    我認為將會決定這時代的脆弱性,

  • and if we can get to grips with these,

    倘若我們能夠處理這些風險,

  • I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.

    我們就可以解決致命暴力問題。

  • So let me start with some good news.

    那麼我們先由好消息談起。

  • Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.

    事實是我們正處在 人類歷史中最和平的時候,

  • Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict

    「司提芬•朋克」等人表明 現今衝突的強度和頻率

  • is actually at an all-time low.

    實際上處於史上低點,

  • Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,

    目前迦薩、敘利亞、蘇丹、烏克蘭

  • as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,

    這些國家的衝突可怕恐怖,

  • they represent a relatively small blip upwards

    在暴力持續下降50年之後,

  • in a 50-year-long secular decline.

    現階段的暴力 只是一個相對較小的往上攀升的點。

  • What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.

    再者是我們看到了謀殺大量的減少,

  • Manuel Eisner and others have shown

    「曼紐沃‧艾斯納」等人證實了

  • that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,

    我們看到數世紀以來 謀殺令人無法置信般地減少,

  • especially in the West.

    特別是在西方,

  • Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.

    今天大多數的北方城市比 100 年前 還要更安全著 100 倍,

  • These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --

    武裝衝突減少了, 謀殺犯罪減少了,

  • are amongst the most extraordinary,

    也許曠古未有,

  • if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,

    是人類歷史最了不起的成就,

  • and we should be really excited, right?

    我們應該為此感到興奮,對吧?

  • Well, yeah, we should.

    沒錯是要的。

  • There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.

    就只有一個問題: 這兩項災禍始終還不放過我們。

  • You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --

    知道嗎,每年有52.5萬人,

  • die violently every single year.

    不分男女老少,慘死於暴力,

  • Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others

    我與凱斯‧克勞斯等人 做的研究指出

  • has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.

    介於五至六萬人慘死於戰爭區,

  • The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.

    其餘大約50萬人死於衝突區域之外。

  • In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.

    換言之,十倍之多人死於戰爭外 而非其中,

  • What's more, violence is moving south,

    更甚者是暴亂往南方移動,

  • to Latin America and the Caribbean,

    來到拉丁美洲和加勒比海、

  • to parts of Central and Southern Africa,

    非洲中部及南部的地方、

  • and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.

    又襲擊到中東和中亞。

  • Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world

    世界上五十個最危險的城市,

  • are right here in Latin America,

    有四十個正是在拉丁美洲這邊;

  • 13 in Brazil,

    十三個在巴西,

  • and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,

    當中最危險的是宏都拉斯的 第二大城市「聖佩德羅蘇拉」,

  • with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.

    有著非常駭人的謀殺率, 每一萬人就有 187 人死於他殺,

  • That's 23 times the global average.

    是世界平均值的23倍。

  • Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,

    如果暴力正在重新地理定位,

  • it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,

    它亦正按世界新地形 重新定形,

  • because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,

    因為對於城市來說, 地球不是平的,

  • like Thomas Friedman likes to say.

    就像湯瑪士‧佛烈曼常說。

  • It's spiky.

    世界是尖的。

  • The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living

    城市至上 成為了城市生活主要方式,

  • is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,

    這是歷史上最不尋常的人口結構逆轉之一,

  • and it all happened so fast.

    而且這全都發生得太快,

  • You all know the figures, right?

    大家都知道這些數字,對吧?

  • There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;

    今天世界上有73億人,

  • there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.

    到2050年世界將有96億人。

  • But consider this one fact:

    不過請考量這個事實,

  • In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,

    在十九世紀,30個人當中 有1個人是住在城市裡,

  • today it's one in two,

    在今天每兩人中會有一個是住在都市裡,

  • and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.

    未來肯定是每個人都會住在都市裡;

  • And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.

    城市化的擴張 既不會均等,也不會公平。

  • The vast majority, 90 percent,

    90%的城市變遷擴張

  • will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.

    會發生在南部地區, 在南部的城市。

  • So urban geographers and demographers,

    所以都市地理學和人口統計學的學者們

  • they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities

    告訴我們:一個城市的大小或密度

  • that predicts violence, no.

    不一定會造成暴力,不一定。

  • Tokyo, with 35 million people,

    東京有三千五百萬人口,

  • is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.

    是最大的、有些人還可能會說是 最安全的都會型城市之一。

  • No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.

    都市化的速度才是關鍵,

  • I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.

    我叫它「渦輪式都市化」, 這是脆弱的關鍵導因之一,

  • When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,

    當你在想這些城市不合理的擴張、

  • and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.

    想想看「渦輪都市化」, 想一下喀拉蚩吧,

  • Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.

    喀拉蚩在1947年約有50萬人, 是一個繁忙的城市。

  • Today, it's 21 million people,

    今天它有兩千一百萬人口,

  • and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,

    佔有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四,

  • it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.

    它還是南亞最暴亂的城市之一。

  • Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,

    達卡、拉哥斯、金夏沙等,

  • these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.

    這些城市比起 1950 年時要大40倍;

  • Now take a look at New York.

    現在來看看紐約,

  • The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.

    「大蘋果」用了150 年才有八百萬人,

  • São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.

    墨西哥的聖保羅市花了 15 年達到一樣的人口級距,

  • Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?

    如今這些中型、大型、巨型, 以及超級城市是怎麼樣貌呢?

  • What is their profile?

    這些城市是什麼樣子?

  • Well, for one thing, they're young.

    首先,這些城市都很年輕。

  • What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.

    許多這些城市都出現年輕人口膨脹。

  • Now, this is actually a good news story.

    這算是好消息。

  • It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.

    因為這意味著幼兒死亡率下降了。

  • But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.

    但是年輕人口膨脹,我們得小心看待。

  • What it basically means

    它基本上代表麼呢?

  • is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities

    生活在脆弱城市中的年輕人比例

  • is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.

    比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。

  • In some fragile cities,

    在某些脆弱的城市裡,

  • 75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.

    75%人口年齡在30歲以下,

  • Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.

    想想看每 4 個人就有 3 個人不到 30 歲,

  • It's like Palo Alto on steroids.

    那就像是打了類固醇的「帕羅奧圖」市 (美國加州之城市)

  • Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,

    看看摩加迪休——東非索馬利首都

  • in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.

    在摩加迪休,平均年齡是16歲,

  • Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.

    達卡、帝力、喀布爾等也是如此,

  • And Tokyo? It's 46.

    東京呢?平均年齡46歲!

  • Same for most Western European cities.

    大部分西歐城市亦一樣。

  • Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.

    不是年輕人多就會帶來暴力。

  • That's one factor among many,

    那是許多因素的其中一項,

  • but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,

    但如果年輕,再加上失業、缺乏教育,

  • and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.

    最要不得的是作為男性, 這是一個最致命的前提,

  • They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,

    這些因素都是統計學上的相關因素

  • and they tend to relate to increases in violence.

    這些風險因素發生在青年身上, 會使暴力發生率上升。

  • Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,

    在座如果有兒子處於青少年階段,

  • you know what I'm talking about, right?

    就會懂我的意思。

  • Just imagine your boy without any structure

    想像你的男孩一點規矩也沒有,

  • with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.

    與那些不受管束的朋友一起, 四處闖鬧。

  • Now, take away the parents,

    再想像他們沒有了父母,

  • take away the education, limit the education possibilities,

    沒有受到教育, 教育機會受到限制,

  • sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,

    加一點毒品、酒水、槍械進來,

  • and sit back and watch the fireworks.

    想想他們會變成什麼樣子。

  • The implications are disconcerting.

    後果可能是不堪設想的。

  • Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.

    在巴西這邊 預期壽命是73.6歲,

  • If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.

    如果你住在里約熱內盧的話 抱歉,減兩歲。

  • But if you're young, you're uneducated,

    但是如果你是年輕人、沒唸過書、

  • you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,

    找不到工作、黑人、又是男性,

  • your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.

    你的預期壽命要下降到60歲以下,

  • There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers

    年輕和暴力是這個國家的頭號殺手,

  • in this country.

    這是有原因的。

  • Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.

    我們的城市並不全然都是厄運和絕望,

  • After all, cities are hubs of innovation,

    畢竟城市是創新的溫床,

  • dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.

    充滿活力、前景、刺激、人際關係。

  • They're where the smart people gather.

    它們是有腦筋的人的聚集之地,

  • And those young people I just mentioned,

    還有那些我剛提到的年輕人,

  • they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.

    他們比以前所有的人還要 更精通數位、瞭解科技,

  • And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,

    科技爆炸、網路、移動通信技術

  • means that the digital divide separating the North and the South

    使南北部地區國家之間的 數位技術差異逐步縮小,

  • between countries and within them, is shrinking.

    也使國內的數碼技術差異 逐步縮小。

  • But as we've heard so many times,

    不過就如同我們常聽到的,

  • these new technologies are dual-edged, right?

    這些新科技是雙面刃,

  • Take the case of law enforcement.

    拿執法來舉例。

  • Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data

    全球的警察開始使用 遙感技術和海量數據來預測犯罪。

  • to anticipate crime.

    一些警察能夠在犯罪發生前 就預測到罪犯的暴力行為。

  • Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.

    將來犯罪的場景, 今天可以預見,

  • The future crime scenario, it's here today,

    我們得要小心注意,

  • and we've got to be careful.

    我們必須協調好公共安全問題

  • We have to manage the issues of the public safety

    防止個人隱私權利受到侵害。

  • against rights to individual privacy.

    不過不只是警察們在革新,

  • But it's not just the cops who are innovating.

    我們也聽過社會公民團體卓越的行動,

  • We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups

    參與了當地和國際串聯行動,

  • who are engaging in local and global collective action,

    那帶來了數位化的抗議和真實的革命。

  • and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.

    不過最令人擔憂的是

  • But most worrying of all are criminal gangs

    犯罪團體利用網絡 開始侵略網絡空間。

  • who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.

    在我工作的墨西哥華雷斯城,

  • In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working,

    像是「賽塔斯」和「錫那羅亞」 這些卡特爾組織團體

  • groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel

    正控制著社群媒體,

  • are hijacking social media.

    他們利用社交媒體來招兵買馬, 販賣他們的產品,

  • They're using it to recruit, to sell their products,

    脅迫、恐嚇和殺害他人。

  • to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.

    暴亂正要進入虛擬化,

  • Violence is going virtual.

    現今形勢多變複雜

  • So this is just a partial sketch

    這不過是其中一面。

  • of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.

    巨大風險還有許多,

  • I mean, there are many other megarisks

    並且會直接影響我們時代的脆弱性,

  • that are going to define fragility in our time,

    也會影響當今的收入不均、

  • not least income inequality,

    貧窮、氣候變化、 罪犯逍遙法外等問題。

  • poverty, climate change, impunity.

    但我們面臨著一個嚴峻的窘境:

  • But we're facing a stark dilemma

    有些城市會繁榮發展 促進全球的進步,

  • where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth

    但也有城市會障礙重重 拉大家的後腿。

  • and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.

    想要改變結局, 我們就必需開始新對話,

  • If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation.

    我們不能只注重那些成功的城市:

  • We can't only focus on those cities that work,

    像新加坡、吉隆坡、

  • the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,

    杜拜、上海等等,

  • the Dubais, the Shanghais.

    我們要與脆弱城市對話。

  • We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.

    方法之一可以是

  • One way to do this might be to start twinning

    將我們較健康富有的城市 與較脆弱的城市配對,

  • our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,

    展開學習與合作的過程,

  • kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration

    分享經驗,成功與失敗的經驗。

  • and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't.

    一個很好的例子是 薩爾瓦多和洛杉磯。

  • A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,

    聖薩爾瓦多市長和洛杉磯市長攜手合作

  • where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating

    讓從前的幫派份子與 現在的幫派份子協力合作,

  • on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,

    給予他們引導與教育,

  • offering tutoring, education,

    在這個過程中幫助催生了 停火和休戰協定,

  • and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,

    聖薩爾瓦多的兇殺率顯著下降了,

  • and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,

    過去世界上最暴力的城市, 兇殺率下降五成。

  • once the world's most violent city,

    我們也可以關注熱門城市、熱門地點。

  • by 50 percent.

    地點對城市暴力形成有著根本影響。

  • We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.

    你是否知道在任一脆弱城市裡

  • Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.

    1 - 2%的街道地址

  • Did you know that between one and two percent

    可以預知到 99 %的暴力違法,

  • of street addresses in any fragile city

    以我工作過的聖保羅市為例,

  • can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime?

    它從巴西最危險的城市變成最安全的,

  • Take the case of São Paulo, where I've been working.

    它做到如此是透過加倍於

  • It's gone from being Brazil's most dangerous city to one of its safest,

    資訊蒐集、熱點標誌、警政改革等,

  • and it did this by doubling down

    僅 10 年過程中 降低了70 %的謀殺率,

  • on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform,

    我們也鎖定了那些鋒頭人物。

  • and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years.

    年輕、失業、無教育、男性

  • We also got to focus on those hot people.

    雖然不幸,但卻可增加 被人殺害或殺害他人的機率。

  • It's tragic, but being young, unemployed, uneducated, male,

    我們必須打斷這個暴力的循環,

  • increases the risks of being killed and killing.

    盡早與兒童和青年相處,

  • We have to break this cycle of violence

    給予認可 而非將他們冠上惡名。

  • and get in there early with our children, our youngest children,

    最近我在致力的一項工作

  • and valorize them, not stigmatize them.

    在牙買加的金士頓市, 還有里約這裡,

  • There's wonderful work that's happening that I've been involved with

    把教育、工作、娛樂 帶給這些高風險人群,

  • in Kingston, Jamaica and right here in Rio,

    因此這些社區的暴力下降了。

  • which is