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  • We are constantly asked for our opinions.

    我們老是被詢問

  • Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?

    你覺得哪個球隊會贏得超級杯?

  • Who wore it better on the red carpet?

    誰在紅地毯上誰穿得最靚?

  • Who are you going to vote for for mayor?

    你想投給哪位市長?

  • Public opinion polls are everywhere.

    到處都是民意調查

  • Important decision makers in American government

    美國政府的重要決策者

  • have long relied on public opinion polls

    長期以來,在選舉 和重要的立法上

  • throughout elections and important legislation.

    依靠民意調查 來瞭解民眾想法

  • The problem is public opinion isn't easy to track

    問題是,公眾意見不容易調查

  • and, often times, isn't even right.

    尤有甚者 民調的結果往往不準確

  • In 1948, the Chicago Daily Tribune ran a now famous headline:

    在 1948 年,《芝加哥每日論壇報 》 拋出了一個在今天來說相當著名的標題:

  • "Dewey Defeats Truman,"

    「杜威擊敗了杜魯門」

  • they cried in big, bold, black and white letters.

    他們以又大、又粗 又黑、又白的字體呈現

  • The problem is

    問題是,當時

  • that Dewey hadn't defeated Truman.

    杜威還沒打敗杜魯門

  • The Tribune had relied on polls to come to their conclusion.

    《論壇報》是根據民意調查 而得出自己的結論的

  • Whoops!

    囧!

  • This happens all the time because public opinion polls

    這種情況太常發生了 因為民意調查

  • are either inaccurate or misleading.

    要嘛不是不準確 不然就是深具誤導性

  • So, why are they wrong?

    那麼,為什麼它們會錯呢?

  • And why do we keep using them?

    為什麼我們還一直使用它們?

  • First, let's start with an important term:

    首先,讓我們開始 理解一個重要術語:

  • sample.

    樣本

  • A sample is the group of people

    一個樣本是指

  • that respond to questions during a public opinion poll.

    一群在民意測驗中 回答問題的受訪者

  • A poll's quality rests largely on its sample,

    一項民意調查的品質 在很大程度上取決於其樣本

  • and a sample can be bad in a few key ways.

    一個糟糕的樣本有可能是

  • It can be too small,

    人數太少

  • too narrow,

    族群狹隘

  • or the poll itself can be too difficult.

    又或民調裡的問題太難

  • Polls that are too small are bad for obvious reasons.

    人數太少不好的原因很明顯

  • And while you can't possibly ask

    雖然你不大可能詢問

  • every single person in America for their opinion,

    美國所有人的意見

  • the more people you ask,

    但如果你問的人愈多

  • the more accurate your prediction.

    你所得到的預測會更準確

  • Polls that are too narrow,

    如果你只詢問

  • that only ask a certain type of person a question,

    某些類型的人一個問題

  • are bad, too.

    那也不太好

  • Consider a poll about whether or not

    試想一個關於

  • the potato is the best vegetable in America.

    馬鈴薯是否是 美國的最佳蔬菜的投票

  • If you only asked people in Idaho,

    如果你只問愛達荷州人的話

  • where the state food is the potato,

    在那裡馬鈴薯是 該州的主要食物

  • chances are that you would get a much different answer

    那麼很有可能地 你在新墨西哥州

  • than if you asked people in the state of New Mexico,

    所得到的答案會存在很大的差距

  • where the state vegetable is beans.

    該州的主要蔬菜是豆類

  • Getting the right kind of diversity in your sample

    在你的樣本中保有適當的多樣性

  • means making sure that your sample has a range

    意謂著,你在樣本中得確保一系列的

  • of ages,

    年齡

  • races,

    種族

  • genders,

    性別

  • and geographic regions,

    地理區域

  • just to name a few.

    的不同類別

  • Finally, polls that are too hard can't tell you much either.

    最後,太困難的民意測驗 也無法提供任何有益的資訊

  • If you're asking people for their opinions on things

    如果你詢問人們一些有關

  • about which they have no prior knowledge,

    他們所不熟悉的知識的問題

  • the results will be pointless.

    結果將會是毫無意義的

  • You're better off shaking a Magic 8 ball.

    與其這樣,試試卜卦求籤 甚至還有可能比較準

  • It's not just the people you're asking

    這不僅是因為,你所問的人

  • that can cause bias, though.

    可能會導致偏見

  • The person doing the asking is part of the problem, too.

    問問題的人也有可能 是導致偏差的部分原因

  • That's called interviewer bias.

    這就叫訪視員偏差 (interviewer bias)

  • Interviewer bias is all about the effect

    訪視員偏差 和所有那些影響著

  • that the person asking the questions

    訪談者所問的問題

  • has on the sample.

    與樣本有關

  • Humans generally don't like confrontation.

    一般說來,人們不喜歡爭鋒相對

  • People worry that their answers may make them look bad.

    人們擔心他們的回答 可能會讓他們看起來很糟

  • Therefore, we find that people tend to give

    因此,我們發現人們傾向於

  • socially desirable responses,

    提供符合社會理想的答案

  • not necessarily their honest opinions,

    而這卻不一定是 他們的誠實意見

  • because they don't want to come across

    因為他們不想

  • as heartless,

    被視為無情的人

  • racist,

    種族主義者

  • or bigoted.

    或偏頗的人

  • And the way we word our questions matters too.

    而我們提出問題的方式也很重要

  • When polls purposely sway the answers one way or the other,

    當民意調查刻意誘導 某種類型的答案時

  • it's called a push poll

    這就叫導向性民調 (push poll)

  • because it pushes people to answer a certain way.

    因為它誘導人們 以某種方式回答問題

  • "Would you vote for candidate Smith?"

    「你會投票給候選人史密斯嗎?」

  • is a perfectly normal question.

    這是一個相當正常的問題

  • "Would you vote for candidate Smith

    「如果你知道候選人史密斯搶劫老年人

  • if you knew that he robs senior citizens?"

    你還會投票給他嗎?」

  • is a push poll.

    這便是導向性民調

  • So, if polls are open

    所以,既然民意調查

  • to all sorts of manipulation and inaccuracies,

    存在著各種操縱 和不準確之處

  • why are they still so prevalent?

    為什麼人們仍然大量使用它們呢?

  • Despite their flaws, public opinion polls provide us

    儘管有其缺點 民意調查提供我們

  • with some sense of the thoughts and moods

    某一群人在某種程度上的

  • of large groups of people.

    想法和情緒

  • They offer politicians the chance to pass legislation

    它們提供政治人物 某些機會去推動

  • they think a majority of Americans will support.

    他們認為大多數美國人 可能會支持的法案

  • They help fashionistas on TV

    它們在電視節目中 看起來很潮很吸睛

  • know which star wore the dress better on the red carpet.

    它們知道哪個明星 在紅地毯上穿得時髦

  • Finally, they make us,

    最後,民調使我們

  • the people who get polled,

    那些被詢問意見的人們,依稀覺得

  • feel as though our voice has been heard.

    自己的聲音已獲得採納

  • So, next time you get a phone call asking your opinion,

    所以,下次你接到詢問你意見的電話

  • or if you see a poll online,

    或者,如果你看到 一個線上民意調查的話

  • take some time to think about who is asking

    花點時間想想,誰在問問題

  • and why they're asking.

    以及,爲什麽他們要問

  • Then, take that poll, and its results,

    接著,試著懷疑 那民調及其結果

  • with a grain of salt

    試著將信將疑

  • or a potato.

    別太把結果放在心上

We are constantly asked for our opinions.

我們老是被詢問

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED-Ed 民調 調查 樣本 詢問 問題

【TED-Ed】民調的優點和缺點 - Jason Robert Jaffe (Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe)

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    稲葉白兎 發佈於 2015 年 01 月 25 日
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