Name: 為何美伊戰爭是拯救美國經濟的唯一方法？！ (Why US-Iran War is Necessary To Save The US Economy)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T18:05:29.000Z
Duration: 21 min 13 s

The U.S. iran war is essential to save the U.S. economy.

美國與伊朗的戰爭對於拯救美國經濟至關重要。

情態助動詞 B1

And this might sound very controversial, but

情態副詞

I was trying to understand what is the true reason that the United States, out of nowhere, suddenly decided to launch this war against Iran.

我試著去理解，美國究竟是為了什麼真正的原因，毫無預警地、突然決定要對伊朗發動這場戰爭。

And after digging into the numbers, it seems like this is probably the only way to save the US Economy from the national debt that is exponentially rising.

在深入分析數據後，看來這可能是拯救美國經濟免於指數級增長的國債的唯一方法。

Now, this sounds like an exaggeration, and it might not make sense at first glance.

現在，這聽起來像是一種誇張，初步看來可能不太合理。

And in this video, it might seem like I will be trying to justify the war, but

在這支影片裡，我可能會試圖為這場戰爭辯護，但

I want to make a disclaimer that I am not trying to justify a war.

我想先聲明，我並不是在試圖為戰爭辯護。

I am not trying to say that this war is necessary.

我也不是在說這場戰爭是必要的。

All I am trying to tell you is to explain how this war could potentially save the US national debt.

我只是想解釋這場戰爭如何可能拯救美國的國債。

So let's get politics out of the way and focus on economics and the numbers.

所以，讓我們把政治放一邊，專注於經濟和數據吧。

The biggest threat to the national security of the United States is the national debt that is rising faster than ever.

美國國安最大的威脅，就是國債正以前所未有的速度飆升。

Even if you check the war out, the debt to gdp ratio by 2030 would have hit about 150% or by 2031.

就算你仔細看看這場戰爭，到了2030年，債務對GDP的比例大約會達到150%，甚至2031年。

And that is disastrous because the interest payments would exponentially rise to about 1.5 or $1.7 trillion.

這非常糟糕，因為光是支付利息的金額就會指數級增長，達到大約1.5兆或1.7兆美元。

And that means that a big chunk of the US budget will be allocated just to make the interest payments to avoid bankruptcy.

這意味著美國預算中很大一部分將只用於支付利息，以避免破產。

Now, with this war, the debt to GDP ratio, if this war turns into another forever war, is going to grow to 150% much sooner than most people expect, and

現在，如果這場戰爭演變成另一場無限期戰爭，債務對GDP的比例將比大多數人預期的要早得多，達到150%，而且

interest payments are already going to exceed $2 trillion within Trump's presidency.

而在川普總統任內，光是利息支付就已經會超過2兆美元。

Now, by looking at these numbers, it might seem like it doesn't actually make sense.

現在，光看這些數字，可能會覺得有點不合理。

Not starting a war and delaying this war or entirely preventing it would have been far better for the US national debt, because the US national debt is now rising much faster with this war than without the war.

不發動戰爭，延遲這場戰爭，或者完全阻止它，對美國的國債來說會好得多，因為現在美國的國債因為這場戰爭而上升的速度，比沒有戰爭時快多了。

But unfortunately, that's not how the global economy works.

但很可惜，全球經濟並不是這樣運作的。

And here is the plan to save the US Debt by waging this war, since.

而這就是透過發動這場戰爭來拯救美國國債的計畫，因為。

So how do you actually solve a debt problem?

所以你該如何真正解決債務問題？

Now, the biggest problem is that if there is no demand for the US Debt, yields will rise.

現在，最大的問題是，如果對美國國債沒有需求，殖利率就會上升。

If there is a strong demand for the US Debt, yields are going to fall down.

如果對美國國債有強勁的需求，殖利率就會下降。

So the only way to fix it is by creating a huge demand for the US Dollar and at the same time creating a situation or an environment where the US Dollar does not have a competitor.

所以唯一的方法就是創造對美元的巨大需求，同時創造一個美元沒有競爭者的情況或環境。

And that means that the the world will have no other option but to continue buying U.S. treasuries.

這意味著，全世界將別無選擇，只能繼續購買美國國債。

那麼，為什麼會有人購買美國國債呢？

Because the dollar is the global reserve currency.

A lot of countries across the globe have to keep a lot of US Dollars.

全球許多國家都必須持有大量的美元。

It is not the most rational thing to do because there is consistent inflation.

這並不合理，因為會有持續的通貨膨脹。

So everybody in the world, one way or another, invest that money.

所以世界上每個人，或多或少都會投資這些錢。

So most of that money is invested in the US Treasuries because you can get at least some interest payments from the US Treasuries.

所以大部分的錢都投資在美國國債，因為你至少可以從美國國債獲得一些利息。

China, for example, that is trying to compete with the United States for the status of the global reserve currency, holds hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S.

例如中國，正試圖與美國競爭全球儲備貨幣的地位，就持有數千億美元的美國。

而且你不能只是單純持有美元。

This war is going to lead to high oil prices.

Now, at first glance, it seems like a catastrophe for the US Economy because lower would benefit the US Economy much more than high oil prices.

初步看來，這似乎對美國經濟是一場災難，因為低油價對美國經濟的益處遠大於高油價。

But there is something that is called petrodollar.

但有個東西叫做「石油美元」。

The Gulf countries are right now which are at war with Iran directly because these countries host a lot of US Military bases.

那些海灣國家現在正與伊朗直接開戰，因為這些國家駐紮了許多美軍基地。

So they're getting hit by Iran because of this war.

所以他們因為這場戰爭而遭到伊朗攻擊。

They've signed an agreement with the United States that they will be only selling their oil with US Dollars.

他們和美國簽訂了一項協議，規定他們只能用美元出售他們的石油。

That means that now suddenly the entire World since 1970s has been buying oil with US dollars.

這意味著，自1970年代以來，全世界突然間都用美元購買石油。

Now, if you need US dollars to buy oil, that means that you have to store a lot of US Dollars because you're consistently buying oil to run your economy.

如果你需要美元來買石油，那就意味著你必須儲存大量美元，因為你需要持續購買石油來維持你的經濟運轉。

Now remember I told you you can't just be holding US Dollars because there is inflation and it's losing money.

請記得我說過，你不能只是單純持有美元，因為有通貨膨脹，而且會損失金錢。

所以你一直在持續購買美國國債。

So the demand, the petrodollar was one of the major reasons why so many countries are buying US debt.

所以，石油美元的需求，是許多國家購買美國國債的主要原因之一。

When oil prices are $60 per barrel, that means that the world is buying $2.3 trillion worth of dollars to buy oil.

當油價是每桶 60 美元時，這意味著全世界為了購買石油，會花費 2.3 兆美元。

That is a lot of demand from across the globe for the US treasuries.

這意味著全球對美國國債的需求量非常大。

現在油價已經漲到 120 美元了。

That means that now the world would buy a lot more US dollars.

這意味著現在全世界會購買更多美元。

Now the world will buy $4.6 trillion worth of US debts because they need to do that, otherwise their economies are not going to function.

現在全世界會購買 4.6 兆美元的美國國債，因為他們必須這麼做，否則他們的經濟就無法運轉。

So at first it might seem like high oil prices is really bad for the US Economy.

所以初步看來，高油價對美國經濟來說真的很糟糕。

But if you actually zoom out and think about it, high oil prices are going to massively increase the demand for the US debt, which means that the Yields on the US Treasuries could go down, which means that the debt is going to become much more sustainable.

但如果你仔細想想，高油價會大幅增加對美國國債的需求，這意味著美國國債的殖利率可能會下降，這表示國債將變得更容易維持。

The next question is who exactly is buying oil from Middle east, that is China, Japan and mainly Asian countries.

下一個問題是，誰在購買中東的石油，主要是中國、日本和亞洲國家。

But European countries are the closest allies of the United States and they're not going to sell US Treasuries.

但歐洲國家是美國最親密的盟友，他們不會賣掉美國國債。

No matter what happens, this is going to be like the worst case scenario.

不管發生什麼事，這都會是最糟糕的情況。

But China has no other option but to continue buying US Debt.

但中國別無選擇，只能繼續購買美國國債。

And the Chinese economy is the world's second largest economy after the United States.

而中國經濟是僅次於美國的世界第二大經濟體。

Now they have a lot of power and a lot of money to buy a lot of US Treasuries.

現在他們有很大的權力和很多錢可以購買大量的美國國債。

Now they are forced to buy US Dollars, which means that they're forced to buy US Treasuries because they need to buy all of that oil from Middle East.

現在他們被迫購買美元，這意味著他們被迫購買美國國債，因為他們需要購買中東所有的石油。

Now another important thing to pay attention to here is that Middle east was planning to sell their oil in Chinese Yuan.

現在另一個要注意的重要事情是，中東原本計畫以人民幣出售他們的石油。

So before this war started over the last couple of years, Middle Eastern countries started testing and experimenting that what if we instead of selling oil in US Dollars, we will be selling oil in the Chinese Yuan.

所以在這場戰爭開始前的過去幾年，中東國家開始測試和實驗，如果我們不以美元出售石油，而是以人民幣出售石油，會怎麼樣。

That is a huge national security danger to the United States because if petrodollar is going to be over, suddenly the demand for the national debt to be over and that could potentially crush the entire U.S.

這對美國來說是巨大的國家安全威脅，因為如果石油美元體系結束，對國債的需求就會突然消失，這可能會摧毀整個美國。

But now, because there is an entire war in the entire Middle east and the only hope that these Middle Eastern countries right now, which is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, uae, they are under the protection of the United States.

但現在，因為整個中東地區都在打仗，而這些中東國家，像是沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達、巴林、阿聯酋，他們現在唯一的希望，就是他們受到美國的保護。

So now they have no other option but to abandon all of these dreams and plans of selling their oil in Chinese Yuan.

所以現在他們別無選擇，只能放棄所有這些用人民幣出售石油的夢想和計畫。

You are under war, you are under missiles.

你們正處於戰爭之中，你們面臨著飛彈威脅。

So if you don't listen to Uncle Sam, that is going to tell you that you have no other option but to do it in US dollars.

所以如果你們不聽山姆大叔的話，他會告訴你們，你們別無選擇，只能用美元交易。

You are going to do that because this is a war and during a war nobody's going to take such a huge risk by diverting out of the United States if the United States will successfully change a regime in Iran.

你們會這麼做，因為這是一場戰爭，而在戰爭期間，沒有人會冒這麼大的風險，如果美國成功在伊朗改變政權，就脫離美國。

So I'm not going to, I'm not sure what's going to happen with Iran.

所以我不會，我不確定伊朗會發生什麼事。

I'm just saying that if the United States will achieve its objective by turning Iran into a pro US country, that means that Iran will join the Middle Eastern countries in a coalition to sell their oil in US Dollars.

我只是說，如果美國達成目標，將伊朗變成一個親美國家，那就意味著伊朗將加入中東國家，組成聯盟，用美元出售他們的石油。

And that means that China will have no other option from now onwards but buy the massive chunk of its energy with US Dollars.

這意味著從現在起，中國將別無選擇，只能用美元購買大量的能源。

That means that China will be spending hundreds of billions of dollars annually buying US Treasuries and maintaining US Debt.

這意味著中國每年將花費數千億美元購買美國國債，並維持美國的債務。

這並非因為中國想這麼做，而是

rather China will have no other option because it needs all of that energy to continue boosting its economy and growing its economy.

因為中國別無選擇，它需要所有這些能源來持續提振經濟並發展經濟。

But here is another interesting fact with the Iran war that delivers Trump's objective.

但伊朗戰爭還有另一個有趣的事實，這達成了川普的目標。

So Trump basically campaigned that he wants to bring manufacturing back to the United States.

所以川普基本上競選時說，他想把製造業帶回美國。

He literally criticized all of these companies that they offshored manufacturing to China, to India, to Vietnam.

他真的批評了所有這些把製造業外包給中國、印度、越南的公司。

And now the moment he became the president, the first thing he did is that he raised the tariffs on China.

而現在他一成為總統，做的第一件事就是提高對中國的關稅。

Now, the objective was that I'm gonna make it so expensive for you to bring that thing to the United States that you will not find it economically and financially viable to manufacture it in China.

現在，目標是讓你們把東西運到美國的成本變得如此昂貴，以至於你們會發現，在中國製造東西在經濟和財政上都不再可行。

And it's gonna be a lot cheaper for you to manufacture it in the United States.

So Apple, if you want to manufacture your iPhones, for God's sake, do it in China.

所以蘋果公司，如果你們想製造 iPhone，拜託，就在中國製造吧。

But you're gonna come here and you pay such huge tariffs.

但你們會來到這裡，然後支付這麼高的關稅。

So it was a reason to push these companies to manufacture things in the United States, but

所以這是一個推動這些公司在美國製造東西的理由，但是

he failed because the Supreme Court has decided that these tariffs are unconstitutional, and

他失敗了，因為最高法院裁定這些關稅違憲，而且

現在我們根本不會有這些關稅了。

So Iran war could actually be a perfect opportunity to.

所以伊朗戰爭其實可能是一個絕佳的機會。

First of all, we are going to have high energy cost.

首先，我們的能源成本會很高。

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為何美伊戰爭是拯救美國經濟的唯一方法？！ (Why US-Iran War is Necessary To Save The US Economy)

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