Name: 美國產油量這麼多，為何荷姆茲海峽還這麼重要？ (If US produces so much oil, why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?)
Uploaded: 2026-03-08T17:00:51.000Z
Duration: 5 min 56 s

These red dots show the oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before the U.S. hit Iran.

這些紅點顯示的是在美國攻擊伊朗之前，荷姆茲海峽的油輪交通狀況。

Iran responded by attacking oil tankers in the Strait.

伊朗透過攻擊海峽裡的油輪來回應。

Leverage in a war with a military superpower.

在與軍事超級大國的戰爭中施加影響力。

Around 20% of the world's oil and natural liquefied gas moves through this passageway.

大約有20%的世界石油和天然液化氣是通過這個通道運輸的。

We already know that gas prices are going to go up.

我們已經知道汽油價格要漲了。

汽油價格可能會上漲 0.10 到 0.30 美元。

Right now, the US is producing more oil than any other country ever has in history.

現在美國生產的石油量，是歷史上任何國家都沒達到的。

So why are Americans already feeling this at the gas pump?

那為什麼美國人已經在加油站感受到這影響了呢？

More than 80% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz will go to Asia, where the impact will be felt more sharply.

經過荷姆茲海峽的石油，超過 80% 會運往亞洲，那裡的影響會更明顯。

To understand what this means for the U.S.

為了了解這對美國意味著什麼。

i'm going to talk to one of the top experts on energy in the economy.

我要來跟一位在能源經濟領域的頂尖專家聊聊。

He was an advisor to President Bush during his first term.

他曾是布希總統第一任期的顧問。

The reality of the global oil market is that a supply disruption anywhere leads to a price shock at the pump everywhere, including the United States, because oil is globally priced and we all ride the same price roller coaster, if you will.

全球石油市場的現實是，任何地方的供應中斷都會導致各地的加油站價格衝擊，包括美國，因為石油是全球定價的，我們都在同一條價格的雲霄飛車上，如果你願意這麼說的話。

Global crude oil prices are based off of benchmark oil pricing.

全球原油價格是基於基準石油定價的。

The use of benchmarks helps buyers and sellers around the world decide the price for different types of crude oil.

基準的使用有助於世界各地的買家和賣家決定不同類型原油的價格。

Each benchmark, for instance, Brent West Texas, Dubai, is priced separately and represents oil from a different region with specific characteristics like density and sulfur content.

例如，每個基準，像是布倫特、西德州、杜拜，都是單獨定價，代表著來自不同地區、具有特定特徵（如密度和硫含量）的石油。

The US Pumps sweet light oil that's good for gasoline, and that's about it.

美國的加油站是甜味輕質原油，適合汽油，僅此而已。

Producers in the Middle east mostly pump heavy sour oil good for asphalt, jet fuel and diesel.

中東的生產商大多生產重質酸油，適合瀝青、噴射燃料和機油。

US Refiners like to use the type of oil that's produced in the Middle east, also Venezuela and Mexico.

美國的煉油廠喜歡使用在中東生產的原油，還有委內瑞拉和墨西哥的。

The US Mostly gets this kind of oil from Canada and Mexico.

美國主要從加拿大和墨西哥獲得這類原油。

Venezuela's infrastructure is degraded and the US Banned imports from Russia.

委內瑞拉的基礎設施已經惡化，美國也禁止了從俄羅斯的進口。

The key thing to remember though is I want to make this very clear.

但關鍵是要記住，我想把這一點說得很清楚。

The key issue is the price of crude grades overall is set in a global oil market.

關鍵問題是，原油的價格整體上是在全球石油市場上設定的。

And even when the Middle Eastern oils are disrupted, prices of all oils go up.

即使中東的石油供應中斷，所有石油的價格都會上漲。

A lot of Americans are wondering, how bad could this get?

很多美國人都在想，這會有多糟？

This isn't the first time there have been disruptions in the strait.

這不是第一次海峽發生供應中斷了。

In the 1980s, during the tanker War, Iran and Iraq struck ships in the Strait, but

在 1980 年代的油輪戰爭期間，伊朗和伊拉克襲擊了海峽裡的船隻，但是

the flow of oil didn't stop because their attacks were limited and the US military escorted tankers through the strait.

石油的運輸並沒有停止，因為他們的攻擊是有限的，而且美國軍隊護送油輪通過海峽。

But in 1979, during the Iranian Revolution and Iran Iraq war a year later, oil infrastructure was bombed, impacting production and causing a drop in the global oil supply.

但在 1979 年，在伊朗革命期間，以及一年後的兩伊戰爭期間，石油基礎設施遭到轟炸，影響了產量並導致全球石油供應下降。

During this time period, gas prices in the US More than doubled.

在這段期間，美國的汽油價格翻漲了一倍多。

That supply loss caused a huge oil price spike that we remember today.

那次的供應中斷造成了我們至今仍記得的巨大油價飆升。

Jimmy Carter with the sweaters and the gas lines and so forth.

吉米·卡特時期，大家穿著毛衣，還得排隊加油等等。

One of the main differences is today is that the US Is producing far more oil, which could help absorb the shock felt in the 1970s and 80s.

主要的差異之一是，現在美國生產的石油多很多，這有助於吸收 70 年代和 80 年代感受到的衝擊。

Do you think the economic crisis that we could be facing could be on par with what happened in the late 70s, early 80s with the Iranian Revolution and the Iran Iraq conflict?

你認為我們可能面臨的經濟危機，會不會跟 70 年代末、80 年代初伊朗革命和兩伊衝突時的情況一樣嚴重？

Yes, we could see similar price impacts and economic impacts.

是的，我們可能會看到類似的價格衝擊和經濟影響。

If there is a prolonged disruption in Strait of Hormuz energy flows, how could people be personally impacted by this disruption to the energy supply?

如果荷姆茲海峽的能源流動長期中斷，這種能源供應中斷會如何影響到一般民眾？

So consumers are impacted because it's like a huge sudden tax increase.

消費者會受到影響，因為這就像突然增加了一大筆稅。

And when you see a sudden increase in gasoline prices and they're rising now by a dime a day as we speak, this impacts not only the pocketbook, but

當你看到汽油價格突然上漲，而且就在我們說話的同時，一天就漲了一角，這不僅影響荷包，

the psychology of the American consumer they just don't like to see also raises the price of everything we buy at the store and all the goods and services we consume because oil is embedded in the supply chain of producing and then transporting the stuff that we buy.

還影響美國消費者的心理，他們不喜歡看到，這也提高了我們在商店裡購買的所有東西的價格，以及我們消費的所有商品和服務，因為石油是生產和運輸我們購買的物品的供應鏈中的一部分。

And finally, there's the financial market impact.

Trump knows he needs to keep the strait open.

川普知道他必須維持海峽暢通。

He even offered an America backed risk insurance to all shipping lines to keep the, quote, free flow of energy.

他甚至向所有航運公司提供美國支持的風險保險，以維持所謂的「能源自由流動」。

With the midterms approaching, rising gas prices and higher inflation would not be the best look for Trump.

隨著期中選舉逼近，汽油價格上漲和通膨加劇對川普來說都不是好事。

In my view, President Trump is acting on principle here because if this was just a political calculation, he would not want to start a war with Iran in an election year when his concern partly was getting oil prices down.

我認為川普總統在這裡是基於原則行事，因為如果這只是政治考量，他不會想在選舉年與伊朗開戰，因為他部分關切的是降低油價。

I conclude he actually means it when he says that he does not want to see Iran develop a nuclear weapons capability and the ability to strike with those weapons far afield of Iran.

我認為當他說他不希望看到伊朗發展核武能力，以及擁有能遠距離打擊的能力時，他是認真的。

You were a top adviser to President Bush.

What would your guidance be to President Trump today?

您今天會給川普總統什麼建議？

my advice has been, if you wish to shorten the oil price spike that will occur, you have got to, from the very earliest parts of the military operation, degrade those Iranian military capabilities that can make Hormuz unsafe for weeks.

我的建議一直是，如果你想縮短即將發生的油價飆升，你必須從軍事行動的最初階段就開始削弱伊朗那些可能讓荷姆茲海峽數週內變得不安全的軍事能力。

The longer this conflict goes on, the more consumers could feel this in their everyday life unless the US And Israel find a way to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

這場衝突拖得越久，消費者在日常生活中感受到的影響就越大，除非美國和以色列找到方法讓荷姆茲海峽保持暢通。

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美國產油量這麼多，為何荷姆茲海峽還這麼重要？ (If US produces so much oil, why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?)

infrastructure

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conflict

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