Name: 伊朗戰爭如何影響烏克蘭？| DW 新聞 (How is the Iran war affecting Ukraine? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T17:14:26.000Z
Duration: 8 min 11 s

What does this attack on Bahrain have to do with this attack on Kyiv?

巴林這次遇襲跟基輔遇襲有什麼關係？

It's about Iran's attack drones, the shaheds.

這跟伊朗的攻擊無人機 shaheds 有關。

They're being used by Iran against its neighbors and Russia against Ukraine.

伊朗正在用它們攻擊鄰國，俄羅斯也用它們攻擊烏克蘭。

Iran created these cheap, effective drones and has long been selling them to Russia.

伊朗製造了這些便宜又有效的無人機，而且早就賣給俄羅斯了。

Russia has launched tens of thousands of Iranian supplied shahed attack drones since its full scale invasion began four years ago, raining them down on Ukrainian cities.

自從俄羅斯四年前全面入侵以來，已經發射了數萬架伊朗供應的 shahed 攻擊無人機，將它們傾瀉在烏克蘭城市上。

Now Iran is using shaheds to hit places like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, even sending them as far as Cyprus.

現在伊朗用 shaheds 攻擊巴林、阿拉伯聯合大公國等地，甚至遠送到賽普勒斯。

So if Iran is now using its drones against its neighbors instead of sending them to Russia, that'll be a problem from Moscow and good for Ukraine, right?

所以，如果伊朗現在用無人機攻擊鄰國，而不是賣給俄羅斯，那對莫斯科來說是個問題，對烏克蘭來說是好事，對吧？

I think that would have been a bigger problem earlier on in this war when Russia was getting most of its shahed drones either directly from Iran or if they were being manufactured in Russia, it was basically with kit that it all come in from Iran.

我覺得，在這場戰爭早期，這會是個更大的問題，當時俄羅斯大部分的 shahed 無人機，要不是直接來自伊朗，不然就是在俄羅斯製造，但基本上都是用伊朗來的套件。

Now basically there is a copy and a Russian version of this technology.

現在基本上這項技術有了複製品和俄羅斯版本。

Most of the spare parts they do come from outside, come from China.

大部分的零件都來自國外，來自中國。

So I think Russia is unlikely to notice much of a difference there.

所以我覺得俄羅斯在那邊應該不會有什麼太大的差別。

They've really been able to ramp up production.

他們真的有辦法大幅提高產量。

Russia was also receiving smaller parties deliveries of ballistic missiles for shorter ranges, but

俄羅斯也收到了小批量的短程彈道飛彈，但是

those were kind of in the low hundreds compared to what Russia has in terms of domestic production.

跟俄羅斯國內生產的數量相比，那些大概只有幾百枚。

這整個情況其實沒什麼大不了的。

So I think Russia will basically be able to carry on pretty much irrespective.

所以我覺得俄羅斯基本上可以繼續進行，不太受影響。

Right now, the Shahad drones that are pitting places like Kyiv, where I am now, are basically a Russian product.

現在，像我現在所在的基輔等地被攻擊的 shahed 無人機，基本上是俄羅斯製造的。

But it's not only about whether Russia needs Iran to supply its drones.

但這不只是關於俄羅斯是否需要伊朗供應無人機。

The war in Iran actually poses real risks to Ukraine in its defense against Russia.

伊朗的戰爭其實對烏克蘭在對抗俄羅斯的國防上，構成了真正的風險。

Spiking energy prices are one real source of concern.

飆升的能源價格確實讓人擔心。

Iran has attacked oil and natural gas facilities in neighboring countries.

伊朗攻擊了鄰國的石油和天然氣設施。

Qatar has shut down a plant that produces much of the liquefied natural gas used in Europe.

卡達關閉了一座工廠，該工廠生產了歐洲大部分液化天然氣。

About one fifth of the world's oil travels through it from producers to consumers.

全球約五分之一的石油透過這裡從產地運往消費者。

繞道運輸油輪需要時間和金錢。

That helps Russia, whose economy is heavily dependent on its oil exports.

這對俄羅斯有利，因為俄羅斯的經濟嚴重依賴石油出口。

Prices had been low enough to hit the Kremlin, where it hurts in the pocketbook, but.

價格一直低到足以讓克里姆林宮傷筋動骨，但。

But now that looks set to change in a significant way.

但現在情況看起來將會大幅改變。

This couldn't have come at a better time for Vladimir Putin.

這對普丁來說真是再好不過的時機了。

The Russian budget was really struggling.

The central government was going after Ordinary people who weren't paying enough taxes.

中央政府正在追討那些沒繳足稅款的普通民眾。

You had local government saying they were unable to meet their social obligations, government companies unable to service their debt, all because oil was basically just much too cheap.

你會看到地方政府說他們無法履行社會義務，政府公司無法償還債務，這一切都是因為油價實在是太便宜了。

The Russian budget was expecting to get about $59, $60 per barrel of Russian oil this year.

俄羅斯預算原本預期今年每桶俄羅斯石油能賣到 59、60 美元。

But given all the discounts that Russia has to offer to get people to risk all the sanctions and other problems associated with doing business with Russia during its war here in Ukraine, it was selling that oil for about $20 or $15 less per barrel.

但考量到俄羅斯為了讓大家願意冒著因烏克蘭戰爭與俄羅斯做生意而來的制裁和其他問題，必須提供的各種折扣，它賣的油每桶大約少了 20 或 15 美元。

Right now, all the uncertainty means that lots of those buyers like India, who had been pressured in recent months to stop buying as much oil from Russia, might now be a lot more willing to take that risk.

現在，所有這些不確定性意味著，像印度這樣近幾個月來一直被施壓要求減少購買俄羅斯石油的買家，現在可能更願意冒險了。

And Russia might actually end up getting closer to that target of $16 a barrel in the next few weeks, at least if this carries on.

而且，如果情況持續下去，俄羅斯在接下來幾週內實際上可能會更接近每桶 16 美元的目標價。

And that is really crucial because there'd been real hope here in Ukraine that that financial stress Putin to think twice about continuing this war extending for another year or more.

而這點非常關鍵，因為烏克蘭這裡原本真的希望，這種財政壓力能讓普丁三思而後行，不要讓這場戰爭再持續一年或更久。

And now it seems like that financial pressure is going to be taken off.

現在看來，這種財政壓力似乎要解除。

The war against Iran could pose an even greater danger to Ukraine.

對伊朗的戰爭可能對烏克蘭構成更大的危險。

The US May, in effect, simply forget about it.

美國可能會是以乾脆置之不理。

Four days after launching the war on Iran, US President Donald Trump said that wouldn't happen.

在對伊朗發動戰爭的四天後，美國總統唐納·川普曾說過那不會發生。

And as far as Russia, Ukraine, where is it on my priority list?

至於俄羅斯、烏克蘭，在我心中有多優先？

I thought it was going to be one of the easier ones, but

我以為這會是比較簡單的其中一件事，但

went on to say, not in that it affects the United States so much because it's very far away.

他接著說，這並不是因為它對美國影響很大，因為美國離那裡很遠。

Keeping Trump's attention and the resources that only the US can provide for Ukraine may be a challenge.

要維持川普的關注，以及美國能為烏克蘭提供的資源，可能會是個挑戰。

The CIA and other intelligence services have been crucial to the Ukrainians in battlefield targeting and other key combat tasks.

中央情報局和其他情報單位在戰場目標鎖定及其他關鍵作戰任務上，對烏克蘭人至關重要。

But it's also about munitions, missiles, artillery, launchers that the US Sells to European countries who then deliver them to Ukraine.

但這也關乎彈藥、飛彈、火砲、發射器，美國賣給歐洲國家，再由他們轉交給烏克蘭。

That includes air defense systems like the Patriot, which helps Ukraine protect Kyiv and other cities.

這包括像愛國者（Patriot）這樣的防空系統，幫助烏克蘭保護基輔和其他城市。

So what would happen if the US Decided it had more urgent things to do or buyers willing to pay a higher price and cut off the flow?

所以，如果美國決定有更緊急的事要做，或是出現願意出更高價的買家，而切斷了供應，那會怎麼樣？

I think the real crucial system here is the Patriot missile defense system.

我認為這裡真正關鍵的系統是愛國者（Patriot）飛彈防禦系統。

That is basically the only game in town here in Ukraine to protect Ukrainian cities from Russian ballistic missiles, the European equivalents.

基本上，這是在烏克蘭保護烏克蘭城市免受俄羅斯彈道飛彈攻擊的唯一選擇，還有歐洲的同類系統。

SAMT hasn't shown itself able to really stand up and to intercept those Russian ballistic missiles.

SAMT（Surface-to-Air Missile Technology）還沒辦法真正有效攔截俄羅斯的彈道飛彈。

And if you just look at the production, it is tiny.

而且如果光看產量，那是非常小的。

Right now, the US is producing about 600 of the PAC3.

目前，美國大約生產了 600 枚 PAC3。

That's the most modern version of that interceptor missile a year 600.

那是那款攔截飛彈最現代的版本，一年 600 枚。

Just to give you a comparison, Iran has fired about upwards of 150 ballistic missiles just at the UAE over the last few days.

這樣比較一下，伊朗在過去幾天就朝阿拉伯聯合大公國發射了約 150 枚彈道飛彈。

The figure 90 missiles in a month at Ukraine.

So if you've got a worldwide production in the hundreds and simply more than that being fired in a very short space of time, that shows you quite how big the competition is for these interceptor missiles.

所以，如果全球產量是以百枚計算，而這麼短的時間內發射的數量就超過這個數字，這就顯示出這些攔截飛彈的競爭有多激烈。

Just recently, you had the German defense minister saying that Germany would find another five interceptor missiles for Ukraine as a kind of emergency measure and was hoping that other European countries would send a fused dozen.

就在最近，你聽到德國國防部長說，德國會再提供五枚攔截飛彈給烏克蘭，作為一種緊急措施，並希望其他歐洲國家能再送來一打。

And to intercept one ballistic missile, you're often firing several interceptors to do that job.

而要攔截一枚彈道飛彈，你通常需要發射好幾枚攔截飛彈來完成這個任務。

Ukraine is getting those interceptor missiles for European cash from the US and it has been near the top of the queue for those deliveries recently.

烏克蘭正透過歐洲的資金從美國獲得這些攔截飛彈，而且最近在這些交付的優先順序上一直名列前茅。

But now, if you're having US Allies in the Gulf using up their stockpiles in a matter of days, then that is going to be kind of questions can be reopened and there's going to be a lot of pressure from those allies with a lot of money to put on the table in a hurry that they should be prioritized over Ukraine.

不過現在，如果波斯灣的美國盟友在幾天內就用完了他們的庫存，那麼這些問題就可能重新被提出，而且那些有錢的盟友會施加很大的壓力，要求他們應該優先於烏克蘭獲得補給。

So that's a real worry here, that you might see Ukraine in a much worse state in terms of its ability to defend from Russian ballistic attacks at a time when Russia is ramping up its own production of those ballistic missiles and there is simply no other game in town.

所以這確實是一個真正的擔憂，你可能會看到烏克蘭在防禦俄羅斯彈道飛彈的能力方面處於更糟糕的境地，而這時俄羅斯卻正在增加自己彈道飛彈的產量，而且別無他法。

In fact, Ukraine is so short of those crucial interceptor missiles, it has offered to trade anti drone technology, a key part of its air defense, to countries on the Persian Gulf for more interceptors.

事實上，烏克蘭極度缺乏這些關鍵的攔截飛彈，它甚至願意用其重要的防空技術——反無人機技術——來交換波斯灣國家更多的攔截飛彈。

US President Donald Trump says operations could last for over a month, but

美國總統唐納·川普表示，行動可能會持續一個多月，但是

The longer fighting goes on, the longer oil prices are likely to stay high and the more missiles the US and its allies will use.

戰鬥持續的時間越長，油價就越可能保持在高位，美國及其盟友使用的飛彈也會越多。

Vladimir Putin's gain and Ukraine's loss.

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伊朗戰爭如何影響烏克蘭？| DW 新聞 (How is the Iran war affecting Ukraine? | DW News)

crucial

prioritize

basically

surge