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  • You know, when I was young I grew up watching Star Trek. I used to dream about tricorders,

  • replicators, these transporters, all these amazing advances we saw. I also imagined I

  • would be using communicators, that I’d have a replicator reproducing all the ice cream

  • and chocolate that I wanted. So I used to imagine a world of amazing things and we had

  • solved the problems of humanity and we were shooting for the stars, and we were exploring

  • new worlds. That's how I thought it would be when I grew up. Look at the world I grew

  • up into, poverty, hunger, despair, where we put each other down, where we're worried about

  • scarcity running out of resources. It's the exact opposite of what I thought we would

  • have when I grew up when I was young. So I, like the rest of the world, became pessimistic.

  • I mean two or three years ago I too was worried about shortages of energy, food, hunger, overpopulation,

  • the world coming apart because of all of the battles we're fighting.

  • If you read my writing right now I'm the greatest optimist there is. I talk about this being

  • the most innovative decade in human history when we'll solve the grand challenges of humanity.

  • I talk about the Star Trek future we're headed into. What changed over there? What changed

  • was that I started learning about the advances that are happening in technology. In hanging

  • out with people like Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil at Singularity University, I started

  • learning about the fact that computing is moving exponentially and it's causing many

  • other fields to go exponential. We all know about Moore's Law and we've seen how computers

  • advance in capabilities. Indeed our smartphones are more powerful than the greatest supercomputers

  • of yesteryear.

  • The same advances are now happening in 3-D printing, in artificial intelligence, robotics,

  • synthetic biology, and in medicine. And what they're making possible is for us to solve

  • the grand challenges of humanity. I now believe that within the next ten to 20 to 30 years

  • we're going to have unlimited energy. Solar is advancing most predictably but there will

  • be many other technologies that become viable over the next five or ten years, which means

  • that in the 2025, 2030 timeframe we should be in an era of almost unlimited energy. We'll

  • have solar cells or other technologies, which generate energy locally, which lets us power

  • electric cars, which are clean. They let us now produce unlimited clean water. We can

  • grow unlimited food. We can 3-D print meat. So we're headed into an era where technology

  • is going to make it possible for us to get out of this shortage mode we've been in, as

  • well with lots of advances in healthcare.

  • We already now have sensory-based devices that we carry in our pockets, they're called

  • smartphones. They track where we go, when we sleep, they track our activity levels.

  • We'll also have wearable devices that monitor our internals and monitor our vital signs.

  • They'll all be connected to the cloud. We'll have AI based physicians, which monitor us

  • on a 24/7 basis and tell us when we're about to get sick. They'll advise us on how to eat

  • better, how to live healthier lifestyles. So we'll be living longer, we'll be living

  • a healthier, we'll be having an abundance of the basics we need. We'll be able to 3-D

  • print buildings. This is an era we're headed into. And when I finish giving my talks, people

  • start looking more closely at the things that are happening, reading up. And I had most

  • people coming to me later on weeks after they've heard my talk about advancing technologies

  • and say, you know Vivek, you really opened our eyes. It does indeed seem that the world

  • is headed in the right direction. There's all these amazing technology advances happening,

  • which are going to better mankind.

  • Now by the way, I've have also become really concerned about the dark side of technology.

  • For a while I was just thinking the world is going to be a wonderful place, it was all

  • good, you know, ra-ra-ra, ra-ra-ra. Now I've also started worrying about the fact that

  • we're creating a dark side it to all of this; that we could be creating killer viruses;

  • that with all this automation with 3-D printing and robotics we're headed into an era when

  • we won't need human beings doing manufacturing. With AI based physicians we won't need as

  • many doctors. We won't need supermarket clerks. We won't need people doing delivery. We won't

  • need truck drivers. We won't need taxi drivers. We're headed into a jobless future. It's almost

  • certain that automation now takes away more jobs than it creates. That's the way it's

  • always been. It's almost certain that well have social unrest because large parts of

  • the population have become unemployed and they have nothing better to do. They are not

  • like the rest who want to now start learning new careers and doing things. It's almost

  • certain that laws and ethics can't keep pace with advancing technologies. The fact is we're

  • already having these battles in the Supreme Court. This case about Aereo broadcasting

  • TV signals went to the Supreme Court, and now we're watching Uber battle the taxi industry.

  • We have Airbnb battling the hotel industry. We're having these new technology companies

  • battling old-line industries. This is the beginning. We're going to see more and more

  • debates about what's right and what's wrong.

  • The laws can't keep up because laws are based on - laws are essentially codified ethics.

  • That we develop a consensus as a society about what's good and what's bad and then it becomes

  • what's right and what's wrong, and then it becomes what's legal and what's illegal. That's

  • the way the progression goes. On most of those technologies we haven't decided what's good

  • or bad. Is it good to have drones delivering our goods? Yeah it will be convenient if we

  • can get Starbucks delivered to our homes in the morning rather than having to drive down

  • to the coffee shop. But these drones also have high definition cameras in them. If they

  • happen to fly by your bathroom and you've got the window open, is it okay for them to

  • be photographing you? Is it okay now for these drones to be carrying weapons? What happens

  • if you had a swarm of drones now attacking buildings?

  • So, we haven't figured out what's legal, what's illegal, what's right or wrong, so we're going

  • to be having many debates about it. So you've got the optimistic Vivek Wadhwa who thinks

  • about the amazing world we're headed into, how everything is going to be wonderful and

  • we will solve the grand challenges of humanity. And then you've got this fellow at Stanford

  • Law School whose researching the ethics and legal issues of advancing technologies. And

  • this professor is really worried about the dark side of technology and the nightmares

  • that are being created by the people who are taking these technologies and using them for

  • bad. So it's a very interesting era we're headed into. The only thing that's certain

  • is that change will happen. The only thing that's certain is that technologies will advance.

  • The only thing that's certain is that we will have good and we will have bad. It's really

  • up to us to decide what we do with it and how we deal with these advances. We can make

  • the world, the Star Trek utopia we dreamed about, or we can make it a Mad Max madhouse

  • and be killing each other and destroy humanity. It's really up to us. So this is why I encourage

  • students to now start learning ethics and values and to focus on bettering the world

  • because it's really up to us what we do with it. We need more people now focused on the

  • betterment of humanity, on using technology for good versus evil so we can balance it

  • out. The bad will always be there, we just have to have more people doing good and uplifting

  • humanity. If we do that we can have this amazing utopian world that we watched on Star Trek

  • where we fix the problems of humanity, we're now going to new lands, to new galaxies exploring

  • new worlds and uplifting humanity and the rest of the universe as a whole.

You know, when I was young I grew up watching Star Trek. I used to dream about tricorders,

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Vivek Wadhwa:未來是光明的,如果我們謹慎的話。 (Vivek Wadhwa: The Future is Bright, if We're Cautious)

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    稲葉白兎 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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