Name: 紐約為何成為美國人口流失最快的州？ (How New York Became America’s Fastest Shrinking State)
Uploaded: 2026-02-15T17:17:41.000Z
Duration: 30 min 46 s

情態副詞

This is a map of every county in the United States based on Census Bureau recorded population changes seen over the three years between April of 2020, right as the COVID 19 pandemic was getting started in July of 2023 based on the most recently available data.

這是根據人口普查局記錄的，從2020年4月（COVID-19疫情剛開始時）到2023年7月（根據最新數據）這三年期間，美國各郡的人口變化地圖。

Based on this map, you can quickly see that the areas of the country that have seen the most significant growth in people this decade have been in places like Washington, Idaho, western Montana, Utah, the Colorado Front Range, Arizona, the Texas Triangle region, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Northern Virginia.

從這張地圖上，你可以快速看到，這個十年來人口增長最顯著的地區，集中在華盛頓州、愛達荷州、蒙大拿州西部、猶他州、科羅拉多州的前沿山脈、亞利桑那州、德州三角區、佛羅裡達州、喬治亞州、田納西州、卡羅萊納州和維吉尼亞州北部等地。

But the areas that have experienced the highest rates of population decline have been California, the Lower Mississippi Basin, especially in Louisiana and Mississippi, Illinois, Upper Appalachia, through eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and New York State.

但人口下降最快的地區，則出現在加州、下密西西比盆地（特別是路易斯安那州和密西西比州）、伊利諾州、上阿帕拉契亞地區（包括肯塔基州東部、西維吉尼亞州和賓夕法尼亞州西部）以及紐約州。

But if you pay very close attention to New York State and zoom in a little closer, you'll notice that all five of the counties that make up New York City are deep in the red.

但如果你仔細看看紐約州，稍微放大一點，你會發現組成紐約市的五個郡，都呈現深紅色。

And New York City's population losses since 2020 have been so great.

而紐約市自2020年以來的人口流失非常嚴重。

Combined with the slower but still still noticeable losses in upstate New York, the New York State has become the fastest shrinking state in America for the 2020 so far.

加上紐約州北部雖然幅度較小但仍可見的人口減少，紐約州已成為2020年至今美國人口減少最快的州。

In the three years from April of 2020 to July of 2023, New York State collectively lost an astonishing net of 630,000 of its residents.

從2020年4月到2023年7月的三年期間，紐約州總共流失了驚人的淨63萬居民。

And it's been estimated by the New York times that nearly 90% of that population loss in the state has all exclusively come from New York City, which alone has lost more than 550,000 of its total net residents in United States the since the start of the COVID 19 pandemic in early 2020, representing a 6.2% decrease in New York City's population in only a three year time span.

根據紐約時報估計，該州近90%的人口流失，完全來自紐約市，僅紐約市自COVID-19疫情初期（2020年初）以來，就流失了超過55萬的總淨居民，這意味著在短短三年內，紐約市人口減少了6.2%。

To put the scale of that loss into perspective, New York City has lost about as many people as live in the entire state of Wyoming combined, and

為了讓你更瞭解這次人口流失的規模，紐約市流失的人口，大約等於整個懷俄明州的人口總和，

The scale of this loss from America's biggest city has single handedly contributed to New York State's title as the fastest shrinking state in the 2020s, both by percentage of loss and by raw numbers of people lost.

來自美國最大城市的這波人口流失規模，光是憑藉流失的比例和實際人數，就獨力造就了紐約州成為2020年代美國人口減少最快的州。

With the state continuing to lose roughly 0.5% of its total population between the summer of 2022 and the summer of 2023, beating out all seven of the other states in the country that also experienced population declines over the same time period, the record losses of people in New York this decade have been the worst on record since the 1970s a/2 a century ago.

該州在2022年夏季到2023年夏季之間，總人口持續減少了約0.5%，這個數字超越了同期美國其他七個同樣出現人口減少的州，紐約州這十年來創紀錄的人口流失，是自1970年代以來最嚴重的紀錄。

While New York City's losses alone over the past three years have virtually completely undone all of the city's population gains that were made throughout the entire previous decade during the 2000 and tens.

雖然光是紐約市過去三年的流失人口，就幾乎完全抵銷了該市在整個2000年代和2010年代所獲得的人口成長。

So what the hell has been going on in New York since 2020 that's been causing all of this to happen?

究竟是從2020年以來，紐約發生了什麼事，導致這一切都發生了呢？

Why is the trend of population loss in the city and state still continuing even after the pandemic era?

為何即使在疫情之後，這個城市和州的人口流失趨勢仍在持續？

And what could this trend mean for New York's political power and influence going forward into the next decade?

而這個趨勢對紐約未來十年的政治權力和影響力，又可能意味著什麼？

For most of America's history, New York State was the nation's most populous.

在美國的大部分歷史上，紐約州一直是全國人口最多的州。

And because of the way that the US Government is set up that awards states representation in the House of Representatives by population figures, that meant that New York State was also the nation's most politically influential and powerful state for most of the nation's history as well.

由於美國政府的制度設計，會根據人口數據來分配各州在眾議院的代表席次，這也意味著在國家的大部分歷史中，紐約州同時也是全國政治上最有影響力和最強大的州。

New York State became America's most populous state at the time of the third nationwide census in 1810, and

紐約州在1810年第三次全國人口普查時，成為美國人口最多的州，

it continued holding that distinction for the following one and a half centuries.

它在接下來的一個半世紀裡一直保持著這個稱號。

By the time of the 1940 census, New York had reached its peak influence in the country by the percentage of Americans who lived within the state.

到了1940年的人口普查，紐約州在其州內居住的美國人比例達到了全國的頂峰。

Roughly one in every ten Americans across the country were a New Yorker then.

當時，全國大約每十個美國人中就有一個是紐約人。

And the state dominated the American Congress with 45 total seats in the House of Representatives, or about 10% of the total seats available.

該州在美國國會中佔據主導地位，眾議院共有45個席次，約佔總席次的10%。

But from there, New York's political influence within the country would begin steadily diminishing, even as the state's population generally continued growing.

但從那時起，紐約州在全國的政治影響力便開始穩步下降，即使該州的人口總體上持續增長。

Because other areas in the country began growing much quicker in the aftermath of the Second World War, especially across the region of the country known as the Sun Belt.

這是因為第二次世界大戰後，美國其他地區的增長速度快得多，尤其是在被稱為陽光帶的地區。

After the invention of compact air conditioning was made, that made the regions warmer.

隨著緊湊型空調的發明，使得這些地區更加溫暖。

As New York State continued to grow, its share of the overall pie of America's total population also began to shrink, and

隨著紐約州的不斷發展，其在美國總人口中所佔的比例也開始縮小，

so too did its members that the state sent to Congress.

它輸送給國會的代表席次也隨之減少。

New York lost two members of the House in the 1950 census, and

紐約州在1950年的人口普查中失去了兩名眾議院代表，

it has continued losing members of the House every single decade ever since, including in 2020 when it lost another seat to sink down to only 26 seats still remaining.

它從那之後的每一屆十年都持續減少眾議院席次，包括2020年又少了一個席次，只剩下26席。

Based on the state's loss of people since 2020 and continued downward trend, New York now stands at risk of losing another three seats in the House by the time the 2030 census rolls around, which could end up resulting in New York's representation in Congress being cut down in half since its Peak in 1940.

根據紐約州自2020年以來人口流失和持續下降的趨勢，到2030年人口普查時，紐約州有失去另外三個席次的風險，這可能導致紐約州在國會的代表席次自1940年的高峰以來減半。

And during this whole time of losing representation, New York eventually even lost its 15 decade streak of remaining America's most populous state sometime in the 1960s to California, because by the time of the 1970 census, California finally overtook New York's crown as the most populated state state.

在這段失去代表權的時期，紐約州終於在1960年代失去了連續150年蟬聯美國人口最多州的紀錄，輸給了加州，因為到了1970年的人口普查，加州終於超越紐約成為人口最多的州。

And since then, two other states have since overtaken New York's population as well.

從那之後，另外兩個州也超越了紐約州的人口。

Texas surpassed New York's population by the time of the 2000 census, and

德州在2000年人口普查時超越了紐約州的人口，

then Florida surpassed New York's population next by 2014, pushing New York down into being America's fourth most populous state ever since.

接著佛羅裡達州在2014年也超越了紐約州的人口，從此將紐約州擠到美國第四大人口州的地位。

Despite this, though, New York State's population continued a general trend of growth minus a rough period throughout the 1970s where it experienced negative growth until right about 2020, immediately before the pandemic struck, where the state reached its all time high population of just over 20.1 million residents.

儘管如此，紐約州的人口仍持續呈現普遍增長的趨勢，除了1970年代一段艱困時期出現負成長，直到2020年疫情爆發前夕，該州達到超過2010萬居民的歷史最高人口。

Now, throughout all of this history of New York's demographic trajectory, there were always extremely stark differences between the two regions of New York in upstate and downstate.

現在，縱觀紐約州人口軌跡的這段歷史，紐約州上州和下州這兩個地區之間一直存在著極其顯著的差異。

There's not really any solid definition of where upstate and downstate New York begin at, and

對於上州和下州紐約的界線並沒有真正確切的定義，

trying to come up with one has been the source of countless arguments between New Yorkers for probably the past 200 years, if not even longer.

而且試圖找出一個定義，可能在過去200年，甚至更長的時間裡，一直是紐約人無數爭論的來源。

Everybody you ask in New York will tend to have a different definition of where they think this divide begins at.

你問紐約的任何人，他們對這個分界線從哪裡開始，都會有不同的定義。

But the one thing that's clear to everybody is that there is a clear cultural, economic and social divide that exists somewhere within the state.

但有一件事對大家來說都很清楚，那就是在這個州內，確實存在著明顯的文化、經濟和社會鴻溝。

And it can be most clearly seen in maps revealing the state's population density, which is probably the most interesting divide in any state in the country.

而這點在顯示該州人口密度的地圖上最為明顯，這可能是全美各州中最有趣的分界線。

This is because despite its appearance, it's a big continental landmass state.

這是因為，儘管看起來如此，它其實是一個廣大的大陸型州。

Most of New York's population actually live on islands.

紐約州的大部分人口其實都住在島上。

The geographic extent of Long island, including the New York City boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens, is densely populated and currently has around 8 million people who live on it, While Manhattan, another island, has about another 1.6 million more people, giving these three islands in New York State a total population today of about 10.1 million people, which is a little more than 51% of New York State's entire statewide population, which weirdly makes New York the only other state in the country besides Hawaii, where the majority of its residents live on islands.

包括紐約市的布魯克林和皇后區，長島的地理範圍人口稠密，目前約有800萬人居住於此，而另一個島嶼曼哈頓則有約160萬人，這三個島嶼加起來，紐約州今天總人口約為1010萬，佔紐約州總人口的51%多一點，這很奇怪地讓紐約州成為除了夏威夷之外，另一個大部分居民住在島上的州。

When you add in the Bronx and the nearby New York City counties like Westchester and Rockland, you arrive at the conclusion that roughly two thirds of New York State's total population lives on just 4% of the state's total land area in the south, while the remaining one third of the state's population lives across the remaining 96% of the state's land further north.

當我們把布朗克斯區和附近的紐約市郡，如威徹斯特郡和羅克蘭郡也算進來，你會發現，大約三分之二的紐約州總人口住在南部僅佔全州總土地面積4%的區域，而剩下的三分之一人口則分散在北部佔全州土地面積96%的區域。

And another clear divide that roughly follows the population divide in the state Is the economic dividend.

另一個大致與該州人口分佈相符的明顯分界線是經濟分界線。

With the more heavily populated south concentrated around New York City, Being significantly wealthier on average, Than the larger continental interior part of the state.

人口較多的南部集中在紐約市周邊，平均而言比州內較大的內陸地區富裕得多。

To me, these are the most helpful visualizations.

對我來說，這些是最有幫助的視覺化呈現。

Of about where upstate and downstate within New York exist At the very small, Very urban, Very densely populated and very rich south that has most of the state's population and wealth, and

關於紐約州上下游的地理位置，南部非常小、非常都會、人口非常密集且非常富裕，集中了州內大部分的人口和財富，

the very large, Mostly rural, Very sparsely populated and more impoverished north that has most of the state's land.

而北部則非常廣闊、大部分是鄉村、人口稀少且較為貧困，卻擁有了州內大部分的土地。

Both of these sides of New York State Almost function as if they were totally separate states within the same whole.

紐約州的這兩邊，幾乎像是各自獨立存在的州，卻又同屬一個整體。

And both have had very different demographic patterns that have existed for decades.

而且這兩邊在人口結構上，幾十年來都有著截然不同的發展模式。

While the area of downstate has experienced almost continuous growth throughout most of its history.

而下游地區在其大部分歷史時期，都經歷了幾乎持續不斷的成長。

Because of the economic engine of New York City and the countless opportunities it has provided to people, Upstate experienced a significant boom and bust period across the 20th century.

由於紐約市這個經濟引擎，以及它為人們提供了無數機會，上游地區在二十世紀經歷了一個顯著的繁榮與蕭條時期。

因為聖羅倫斯河在蒙特婁附近歷史上有一系列急流，直到技術進步到能克服它們的1950年代，才得以用於商業航行至五大湖。

Lawrence river historically had a series of rapids just past Montreal, it wasn't able to be used for commercial navigation to the Great Lakes until technology advanced enough to overcome them in the 1950s.

所以在那之前，1825年伊利運河從伊利湖通往哈德遜河的完工，建立了第一條可航行的水道路線。

So until that point, the completion of the erie Canal in 1825 from Lake Erie to the Hudson River Established the very first navigable waterway route.

From the Atlantic Ocean into the Great Lakes, which dramatically reduced the cost of shipping goods.

從大西洋進入五大湖，這大大降低了貨物運輸的成本。

From west of the Appalachian Mountains to global markets.

從阿帕拉契亞山脈以西到全球市場。

And it proved to be a huge early geographic advantage for New York State.

這 proved to be a huge early geographic advantage for New York State。

As no other Atlantic port besides New York City for d decades had a fully navigable route into the Great Lakes region.

因為在接下來的幾十年裡，除了紐約市之外，沒有其他大西洋港口擁有通往五大湖地區的完整航道。

While upstate cities located along the canal like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and

而運河沿線的紐約州北部城市，像是 Buffalo、Rochester、Syracuse 和

Albany all benefited from their positions along the new trade route as well and began rapidly growing themselves.

Albany，也都受益於它們在這條新貿易路線上的地理位置，並開始快速發展。

Some historians today have referred to the Erie Canal as America's very first superhighway.

一些歷史學家今天將伊利運河稱為美國的第一條超級高速公路。

And the canal's capacity was significantly expanded even further in the early 20th century between 1905 and 1918.

而運河的運載能力在二十世紀初的 1905 年到 1918 年間得到了顯著擴大。

While the expansion of the country's railroad network through the area.

Contributed even further to upstate New York's geographic advantage as a critical trade route along the funnel of trade between all of the Great Lakes and New York City.

進一步增強了紐約州北部的地理優勢，使其成為連接所有五大湖與紐約市之間貿易通道的關鍵貿易路線。

The corridor along the Erie Canal between cities like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse.

像水牛城、羅徹斯特和雪城等城市之間，沿著伊利運河的廊道。

Steadily evolved into one of America's most significant industrial and manufacturing hubs in the early 20th century as a result, which created tons of jobs in the area and attracted people to relocate to upstate from all across the rest of the country and even the world, which led to A long era of population growth taking place in both upstate and downstate New York alike Across the first half of the 20th century.

是以，在二十世紀初，這裡穩步發展成為美國最重要的工業和製造業中心之一，這在該地區創造了大量工作機會，並吸引了全國各地甚至全世界的人們搬到紐約州北部，進而帶動了紐約州北部和南部在二十世紀上半葉的長期人口增長。

Buffalo itself even ranked among all of America's top 10 largest cities in both 1900 and 1910.

在 1900 年和 1910 年，水牛城本身都位列美國十大城市之列。

And by 1950, the growth in upstate had been so high that the metropolitan area around Buffalo had grown to become nearly the same population as the borough of Queens in New York City, Something that's almost completely unthinkable today.

而到了 1950 年，紐約州北部的發展如此之快，以至於水牛城都會區的人口幾乎與紐約市的皇后區相當，這在今天幾乎是難以想像的。

But then upstate's fortunes in particular Began to shift dramatically for the worse, beginning in the 1950s.

但是，紐約州北部地區的運勢，尤其是在 1950 年代開始急劇惡化。

The completion of the St. Lawrence Seaway project in 1959 finally transformed the once unnavigable St.

聖羅倫斯海道工程於 1959 年完工，終於將曾經無法航行的聖羅倫斯河變成了從大西洋進入五大湖的完全可航行水道。

Lawrence river into a fully navigable route from the Atlantic into the great lakes.

而且它對於海上貿易的載運能力，遠遠超過了較小且較早的伊利運河。

And it had a much, much higher capacity for maritime trade Than the smaller and earlier Erie canal had.

是以，完工後，大西洋與五大湖之間的海上貿易路線迅速從伊利運河轉向聖羅倫斯河。

And so, after its completion, Maritime trade routes between the Atlantic and the great lakes Quickly shifted from the Erie canal towards the St.

於是，完工後，大西洋與五大湖之間的海上貿易路線迅速從伊利運河轉向聖羅倫斯河。

And at around the same time, President Dwight d.

而且差不多在同一時間，杜魯門總統也於 1956 年開始建造美國的州際公路系統。

Eisenhower Began the construction Of America's interstate highway system in 1956 as well.

隨著公路系統的建置，伊利運河上僅存的少量商業運輸也開始難以與州際卡車運輸的興起競爭。

And as it kept getting built out, what little commercial traffic remained on the Erie canal Began struggling to compete with the rise of interstate trucking, too.

到了 1994 年，曾經是美國最重要的貿易動脈的伊利運河，迎來了最後一班定期貨運船的結束服務。

By 1994, the Erie Canal, which had once been America's most significant artery of trade, Saw its final ever regularly scheduled trade hauler End its service for good.

就這樣，伊利運河作為貿易路線的輝煌歲月終於畫下句點。

And with that, the Erie canal's long days as a trade route Were finally over for good.

隨著運河重要性的下降，鄰近運河的城市重要性也隨之降低，

With the canal's diminishing importance, Came a diminishing in the city's importance nearby to the canal, and

as greater nationwide trends took over as well.

像是將製造業外包給中國等海外國家，加上去工業化以及服務業工作機會的成長，尤其是在鄰近的紐約市，紐約州北部進入了漫長的が人口嚴重減少時期，這個時期始於 1950 年代，持續數十年，直到 2000 年代才開始穩定下來。

Like offshoring manufacturing to countries overseas like China, along with deindustrialization and the growth of service sector jobs, Especially in nearby New York City, Upstate New York entered into a long period of heavy population decline that began in the 1950s and persisted for decades until it only began stabilizing itself in the 2000 and tens.

在這段期間，也就是 1950 年到 2010 年之間，水牛城損失了超過一半在 1950 年達到的最高人口數，而羅徹斯特和雪城也各損失了超過三分之一的最高人口數。

During this time period, between 1950 and 2010, Buffalo lost more than half of its peak population that it had back in 1950, while Rochester and Syracuse each lost more than a third of their peak populations as well.

這一切都發生在紐約州北部人口銳減，當地機會枯竭，大批民眾為了尋找機會而離開，包括前往紐約市和下州，而下州在 20 世紀後期大部分時間人口持續強勁成長。

All as upstate's population just got completely gutted as opportunities there dried up and droves of people left for opportunities elsewhere, including in New York City and downstate, where the population growth continued to remain strong throughout most of the later 20th century.

As upstate languished and fell increasingly further behind, the plentiful economic opportunities and amenities in New York city provided by it being one of the entire world's most significant hubs of finance and services, media, the arts and culture kept its growth going steady and strong.

而隨著紐約州北部日漸凋零、落後越多，紐約市身為全球最重要的金融、服務、媒體、藝術和文化中心之一，提供了豐富的經濟機會與生活機能，讓其成長持續穩健。

But then something interesting began happening in the later half of the 2010s.

但到了 2010 年代後半期，有趣的事情開始發生了。

This set an omen for what would come later.

In the 2000 and twenties, New York City and downstate's population growth began to get stagnant and even started showing signs of slight decreases, while upstate's decades long trend of decline began stabilizing and even reversing with some moderate increases.

在 2000 年代和 2020 年代，紐約市和下州的成長開始停滯，甚至出現輕微下降的跡象，而紐約州北部數十年來的衰退趨勢則開始穩定，甚至出現溫和的成長。

New York State overall recorded a minor population loss in 2016 of just 0.1%, the state's first loss in population in a decade since 2000.

紐約州整體在 2016 年記錄到 0.1% 的微小人口損失，這是自 2000 年以來該州十年來的首次人口減少。

After 2016, the state began recording increasingly higher population decreases year after year in 2017, in 2018 and again in 2019, until the nationwide U.S.

2016 年之後，該州在 2017 年、2018 年和 2019 年連續出現越來越高的人口減少，直到全國性的美國

census conducted in 2020 revised New York State's total population to about 20.2 million people.

人口普查局在 2020 年進行普查，將紐約州總人口修正為約 2020 萬人。

And then the trend only massively accelerated after the first case of COVID 19 was detected in New York City on 1st March 2020.

接著，在 2020 年 3 月 1 日紐約市出現首例 COVID-19 確診病例後，這個趨勢更是大幅加速。

By the end of that month there were Already more than 30,000 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in New York City, and

到了該月底，紐約市已有超過 30,000 例 COVID-19 確診病例，

the region had already become the worst affected place by the pandemic in the entire country.

該地區也已成為全國受疫情影響最嚴重的地區。