Name: 川普能讓古巴政權垮臺嗎？ | 全球故事 (Could Cuba's government fall under Trump? | The Global Story)
Uploaded: 2026-02-10T17:11:13.000Z
Duration: 22 min 45 s

President Trump has his sights set on another country in the United States backyard, Cuba.

川普總統的目光鎖定在美國後院的另一個國家，古巴。

I don't know how everything can hold out.

It's one of the US Closest neighbors and one of Venezuela's closest allies.

它是美國最親近的鄰居之一，也是委內瑞拉最親近的盟友之一。

American presidents have long criticized the Cuban government.

美國總統長期以來都批評古巴政府。

But now some say the Trump administration is emboldened to go further than before.

但現在有人說，川普政府更有膽量做得比以前更深入。

I think Cuba will not be able to survive.

From the BBC, I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C.

我是 BBC 的 Asma Khalid，在華盛頓特區報導。

and today on the global story after Venezuela is Cuba next.

今天全球故事的內容，在委內瑞拉之後，下一個是古巴。

I'm the BBC correspondent in Mexico for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

我是 BBC 在墨西哥的記者，負責墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比海地區。

You've spent a lot of time reporting from there.

From your vantage point, what is the crux of the problem that the Trump administration has with Cuba?

從你的角度來看，川普政府和古巴之間問題的核心是什麼？

At the heart of the Trump administration's issue with Cuba is really the heart of Washington's ongoing issue with Cuba.

川普政府對古巴的問題，其實就是華盛頓長期以來對古巴問題的核心。

Basically, they don't like a communist run government 90 miles off the coast of Florida.

基本上，他們不喜歡在離佛羅裡達海岸 90 英里處有一個共產黨執政的政府。

They've never liked a communist run government 90 miles off the coast of Florida.

他們一直不喜歡在離佛羅裡達海岸 90 英里處有一個共產黨執政的政府。

They've tried to remove a communist run government 90 miles off the coast of Florida many, many times in different guises through c planned attempts on Fidel Castro's life.

他們曾多次試圖以不同形式，透過對菲德爾·卡斯楚的暗殺計畫，來推翻這個在佛羅裡達海岸 90 英里處的共產黨執政政府。

Hundreds of those were planned and several were attempted to squeezing the island through the US Economic embargo for six and a half decades, putting punitive measures on everything from companies that might want to send food and medicines to Cuba to even British and European tourists who visit Cuba.

其中數百項是計畫好的，有幾項是嘗試透過美國長達六十年的經濟禁運來壓垮這個島國，對從可能想運送食物和藥品到古巴的公司，甚至到參訪古巴的英國和歐洲遊客，都施加懲罰性措施。

So there's a whole series of things that Washington has done since 1959 essentially to force regime change in Cuba.

所以，華盛頓自 1959 年以來，基本上做了一系列的事情來推動古巴的政權更迭。

Of course, Donald Trump in his second administration with Marco Rubio as his secretary of state.

當然，唐納·川普在他的第二個任期內，由馬可·魯比歐擔任國務卿。

It looks like they really do intend to see some form of regime change, some kind of permanent shift in Cuba off the back of what's happened in Venezuela.

看起來他們真的打算看到某種形式的政權更迭，某種永久性的轉變，這是在委內瑞拉發生事情之後，對古巴的影響。

It does seem, at least here in Washington that we are hearing a lot more about Cuba and, and

在華盛頓這裡，我們確實聽到了更多關於古巴的討論，以及

We've heard President Trump refer to Cubans as being the protectors, the thugs behind the Venezuelan government.

我們聽過川普總統稱古巴人是委內瑞拉政府背後的保護者、暴徒。

And one thing that caught my eye when the United States captured Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro was that there were a number of Cuban soldiers who were killed in that operation.

還有，當美國逮捕了委內瑞拉領導人尼古拉斯·馬杜羅時，我注意到一件事，那就是在那次行動中有不少古巴阿兵哥陣亡。

And we'll have a lot of questions here, but why Would there have been Cubans protecting Maduro?

這讓我們有很多疑問，但為什麼會有古巴人在保護馬杜羅呢？

Part of the relationship, the bilateral relationship between Cuba and Venezuela is built on intelligence officers and soldiers, military support.

古巴和委內瑞拉之間雙邊關係的一部分，建立在情報官員和阿兵哥、軍事支援上。

現在，古巴人已經否認了這一點。

They said that basically the arrangement was that crude oil would come to Cuba and prop up the Cuban revolution and doctors would go back in the other direction.

他們說，基本上這個安排是，古巴會獲得原油，來支撐古巴革命，而醫生則會往反方向回去。

So crude oil would go from Venezuela to Cuba and in return they would pay for that with human capital in the form of doctors and medics and healthcare workers who would work in the shanty towns and in the remote regions of Venezuela.

所以，原油會從委內瑞拉運往古巴，作為回報，他們會以醫生、醫護人員和醫療工作者的形式，用人力資本來支付，這些人會在委內瑞拉的貧民窟和偏遠地區工作。

Hugo Chavez, the late Venezuelan leader, and

已故的委內瑞拉領導人烏戈·查維茲，

Fidel Castro, the late Cuban revolutionary leader, the two of them came up with that idea.

和已故的古巴革命領導人菲德爾·卡斯楚，這兩個人想出了這個主意。

And it was basically the mainstay of the economic relationship between the two socialist allies until this point.

這基本上是這兩個社會主義盟友之間經濟關係的支柱，直到此刻。

There was a third dimension to that, though, of course, which was intelligence officers support, particularly in the wake of an attempted coup on Hugo Charis in 2002.

不過，當然還有第三個面向，那就是情報官員的支持，尤其是在2002年烏戈·查維茲遭遇政變未遂之後。

I think from there on there was more of a role for Cuba because basically Cuba's know how in terms of what Venezuela wanted to achieve or the Venezuelan government wanted to achieve was in terms of how to stay in power, how to remain in power for six and a half decades.

我認為從那時候開始，古巴的角色就更吃重了，因為基本上古巴知道委內瑞拉想要達成什麼，或者說委內瑞拉政府想要達成什麼，那就是如何維持權力，如何維持權力長達六十多年。

And so part of that intelligence sharing involved actual physical bodyguards on the ground protecting Nicolas Maduro.

是以，情報共享的一部分就包括了實際的貼身保鏢，在現場保護尼古拉斯·馬杜羅。

So he, as a disciple of Fidel Castro, of the Castro brothers, was very much part of the same equation that Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez created.

所以他，作為菲德爾·卡斯楚和卡斯楚兄弟的信徒，非常是菲德爾·卡斯楚和烏戈·查維茲所創造的同一方程式的一部分。

It was rumored that he actually trusted Cubans more than his own countrymen.

有傳言說，他其實比信任自己的同胞更信任古巴人。

As somebody who himself was trained in Cuba, he bought into the Cuban vision of a socialist nation.

他本人曾在古巴接受訓練，他接受了古巴對社會主義國家的願景。

The other things they did was advise on Russian dissent.

他們做的其他事情是就俄羅斯的異議提供建議。

Quite frankly, there's reports from people who were held in detention, dissidents and journalists, that when they were held in a very notorious detention centre in the centre of Caracas called Del Elikoy there, that they were interrogated by people with Cuban accents throughout this entire period against those sorts of allegations and against the allegations that Cuban soldiers were infiltrated in the Venezuelan military at absolutely every, every level, the Cuban government denied them, said that they weren't there, that it was an invention by Washington, that it simply wasn't true.

坦白說，有被拘留的異議人士和記者的報告指出，當他們被關押在加拉加斯市中心一個非常臭名昭著的拘留中心，叫做Del Elikoy時，他們在這整個期間都受到帶有古巴口音的人審問，針對這些指控，以及古巴阿兵哥滲透到委內瑞拉軍隊的各個層級的指控，古巴政府都予以否認，說他們不在那裡，說是華盛頓的發明，根本不是事實。

Well, considering that 32 of the hundred or so people who were killed in the US operation in Venezuela were Cubans, they simply had to acknowledge them.

嗯，考慮到美國在委內瑞拉的行動中喪生的約一百人裡有三十二位是古巴人，他們不得不承認。

They had to acknowledge that they were there and it sort of exposed that it was true, that they had people on the ground in Venezuela and had done for years.

他們不得不承認他們在那裡，這也暴露出事實，那就是他們在委內瑞拉有自己的人，而且已經很多年了。

So, Will, you were in Havana the Capital of Cuba recently as those soldiers remains were brought back and put on display, essentially lying in state.

所以，Will，你最近在古巴首都哈瓦那，那裡的阿兵哥遺體被運回並公開展示，基本上是供人瞻仰。

They were honored by the Cuban government.

他們受到了古巴政府的榮譽表彰。

What was the scene like there in Cuba, as you were there reporting?

你在那裡報導時，古巴的現場情況是怎麼樣的？

I mean, Raul Castro, who makes very few public appearances now was there to receive them at the airport, age 94.

我意思是，現在很少公開露面的勞爾·卡斯楚，以九十四歲高齡親自在機場迎接他們。

Standing next to him, President Miguel Diaz Canel.

他旁邊站著的是總統米格爾·迪亞斯-卡內爾。

正如你所說，受到了最高規格的軍事榮譽。

The boxes were taken from the plane and loaded into a funeral procession that then drove into Havana to the Ministry of the Armed Forces.

這些骨灰盒被從飛機上取下，裝進送葬隊伍，然後開往哈瓦那的國防部。

The vast majority of the route towards from the airport to this ministry would have had people along the way way.

從機場到國防部的這段路程，沿途幾乎都會有民眾夾道送別。

Cuba hasn't lost this number of combatants in a one on one battle with the US military as far as I can see, since the start of the Cuban Revolution.

就我所知，自古巴革命以來，古巴從未在與美國軍隊的一對一戰鬥中損失這麼多戰士。

The only point that we can compare it to is the Bay of pigs in 1961.

我們唯一能拿來比較的是 1961 年的豬灣事件。

But that was Cuban exiles who were trained by the CIA and brought to the coast of Cuba to basically try and take back the island.

但那次是受中情局訓練的古巴流亡人士，被帶到古巴海岸，試圖奪回這個島嶼。

There were that there were fatalities on either side and certainly the US military was involved.

雙方都有人員傷亡，美國軍隊當然也捲入了其中。

But in a direct fight like this with 32 combatants killed and none on the other side, it was a very sobering moment, a very almost humiliating moment in a sense for the Cuban revolution.

但像這樣有 32 名戰士陣亡，而對方卻無人傷亡的直接 fight，對古巴革命來說，是個非常令人警醒，甚至可以說是屈辱的時刻。

Except they certainly didn't paint it like that as you'd expect.

不過，正如你所料，他們當然沒有這樣描繪。

It was a moment of pride, a moment of honor.

那是一個充滿驕傲、充滿榮耀的時刻。

The words next to each of these boxes with the photo of the respective soldier with the words honor and glory next to them.

這些照片旁邊的文字，上面寫著榮譽和榮耀。

How much oil has Cuba been getting from Venezuela?

古巴從委內瑞拉那裡拿了多少石油？

Well, it was much higher when Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro struck up their relationship.

嗯，當時雨果·查維茲和菲德爾·卡斯楚剛建立關係時，這個數字高很多。

It was in the region of 100,000 barrels of oil a day with which Cuba could sell the excess beyond its domestic consumption to other nations.

當時每天大約有十萬桶石油，古巴可以賣掉國內消費以外的剩餘石油給其他國家。

In the Petro Caribe, a Caribbean agreement, you know, in that sense we talk about, you know, Venezuelan oil, basically uplifting, upholding the Cuban revolution.

在「石油計畫」這個加勒比協議裡，你知道，從這個角度來看，我們談論的是委內瑞拉的石油，基本上是在支撐、維護古巴革命。

It was through steps like that, gradually over time and with the fall of the, of the oil price, the global oil price, Venezuela hasn't been able to provide that kind of, those kind of numbers and it's reduced to more like the accepted number is somewhere around 35, maybe 40,000 barrels of oil a day, much, much less.

隨著時間的推移，以及全球油價的下跌，委內瑞拉已經無法提供那樣的數量了，現在減少到大約每天三萬五千到四萬桶石油，少了很多很多。

But when combined with what Cuba gets from Mexico and from Russia, enough traditionally to be able to keep the lights on, but

但如果加上古巴從墨西哥和俄羅斯那裡獲得的石油，傳統上足夠讓國家運轉，但

So if in this relationship Cuba has been getting oil, you say in return they send doctors and soldiers to Venezuela how many doctors and soldiers are you speaking of?

所以，如果古巴在這段關係中獲得石油，你說他們回報的是派醫生和阿兵哥去委內瑞拉，你說的是多少醫生和阿兵哥？

We don't, or at least I don't currently know how big it is.

我們不知道，或者至少我目前不知道規模有多大。

We just know that it has been in the past to the tune of thousands, many thousands.

我們只知道過去的規模是幾千人，好幾千人。

And the benefit is that those doctors would be paid much better than they would be paid in Cuba.

而好處是，這些醫生會比在古巴領取的薪水高很多。

But the argument in terms of those in Florida, that it was exploitative, that they were still being paid a fraction of what the Venezuelan government was getting per medic, and

但佛羅裡達州那些人的論點是，這是在剝削，他們拿到的錢仍然只是委內瑞拉政府每位醫護人員費用的零頭，而且

that people are basically obliged to go to very dangerous shanty towns in Caracas or remote communities because they're not paid a dignified wage back in Cuba.

人們基本上被迫去加拉加斯非常危險的貧民窟或偏遠社區，因為他們在古巴領取的薪水不夠體面。

So will you say, prior to Maduro's ouster, the Cuban government had not, in an official capacity, really recognized that they were providing this intelligence protection service.

那麼，你會說，在馬杜羅下臺之前，古巴政府並沒有以官方身份真正承認他們提供了這種情報保護服務。

Now, at this moment, what's happened to the rest of the Cuban security intelligence operation in Venezuela?

那麼，現在，委內瑞拉的古巴安全情報行動還剩下什麼？

Well, we don't know exactly in terms of numbers, but

嗯，我們確切的數字不知道，但是

here's an anecdote that tells us quite a lot about where we are now.

有個軼事告訴我們現在的情況。

The next day, after these remains have returned the boxes of cremated ashes, there is a protest outside the US Embassy led by President Miguel Diaz Canel.

隔天，在這些遺體運回骨灰罈後，美國大使館外發生了一場由總統 Miguel Diaz Canel 領導的抗議活動。

then a whole slew of people walk past the US Embassy waving Venezuelan and Cuban flags and chanting about solidarity and cooperation to the death and so on.

接著一大群人揮舞著委內瑞拉和古巴國旗，走過美國大使館，高喊著團結合作直到死亡等等的口號。

Now, as that was happening, we received on our phones confirmation that Delsey Rodriguez, the interim president in Venezuela, had met with John Ratcliffe, the director of the CIA in Caracas.

就在那時，我們的手機收到確認消息，委內瑞拉的代理總統 Delsey Rodriguez 在加拉加斯與美國中央情報局局長 John Ratcliffe 會面。

That ASMA is for Cuba watchers, Venezuela watchers is extraordinary.

這對關注古巴和委內瑞拉的人來說，是件非同尋常的事。

她不是和一位遠方的外交官見面。

She didn't meet on the head of Latin American affairs or the Western hemispheric affairs from the State Department.

她也不是和美國國務院拉丁美洲事務或西半球事務的負責人見面。

She didn't meet with an emissary from the White House or she met with the director of the CIA less than two weeks after her boss has been removed by U.S.

她沒有和白宮的特使見面，而是和美國總統被美軍罷免不到兩週後，就和美國中央情報局局長見面。

And I showed the information to a Cuban government official.

然後我將這個資訊給了一位古巴政府官員看。

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