Name: 如果聯準會降息，為什麼房貸利率還是這麼高？ (If the Fed cut rates, why are mortgages still expensive?)
Uploaded: 2026-01-31T12:47:04.000Z
Duration: 5 min 40 s

過去簡單式

In 2020, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and mortgage rates followed.

2020年的時候，美國聯邦準備理事會降息，房貸利率也跟著下降。

to 不定詞

Then later, to deal with inflation, the Fed raised interest rates and again, mortgages followed.

後來為了應對通貨膨脹，聯準會升息，房貸又跟著上升。

未來簡單式

So now Trump wants the Fed to do it again in hopes that the same thing will happen.

所以川普現在希望聯準會重蹈覆轍，期望事情會再次發生。

We're keeping the rates high, and it's hurting people from buying houses, and we don't want that.

我們讓利率維持在高點，這傷害了大家購房的意願，我們不希望這樣。

Even when the Fed did cut interest rates In September of 2024, mortgages didn't go down.

即使在2024年9月聯準會降息時，房貸利率也沒有下降。

So why don't Fed rate cuts necessarily help your Mort?

那麼為什麼聯準會降息不一定能幫助您的房貸呢？

The Fed is arguably the most powerful institution in the world economy.

聯準會可以說是世界經濟中最為強大的機構。

And so that one number, right, the interest rate that the Fed sets, it really sets the tone for the entire US Economy.

而那個數字，也就是聯準會設定的利率，它真的為整個美國經濟定調。

That one number is this one, the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks use to lend each other money overnight.

這個數字就是聯邦基金利率，也就是銀行之間隔夜拆借的利率。

The bank doesn't like to store all your money in its vault.

銀行可不喜歡把你們所有的錢都存放在金庫裡。

If it did, there's no way of it making money.

如果真的這樣做，牠就沒辦法賺錢了。

Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, says the bank lends some of your money out to other people for things like credit cards, personal loans, and

密西根大學的經濟學家 Justin Wolfers 表示，銀行會把你們的一部分錢借給其他人，用於信用卡、個人貸款和

But then if you need that money back and the bank is short by this much, it can make up the difference by borrowing from other banks.

但如果這時候你們需要那筆錢，而銀行又剛好不夠，牠就可以向其他銀行借錢來補足差額。

另一家銀行就會說，沒問題，但是

I want some interest if I'm going to lend it to you.

如果我要借錢給你們，我總得收點利息吧。

What the Federal Reserve does is it walks into that market and it says, tell you what, just come and borrow from me instead.

美國聯邦準備理事會（Federal Reserve）的做法是走進這個市場，然後說，這樣好了，你們乾脆來跟我借錢好了。

Well, if the Federal Reserve is willing to loan money at a rate of 3%, no one will borrow from anyone else at a rate higher than 3%.

嗯，如果美國聯邦準備理事會願意以3%的利率借錢，那就不會有任何人願意用高於3%的利率向別人借錢了。

So the federal funds rate is just a little lower than the rate the Fed offers.

所以聯邦基金利率就只是比聯準會提供的利率稍微低一點。

This is how much the Fed has offered in the past two years.

這是聯準會在過去兩年提供的利率。

And here's the federal funds rate just below it.

而這條就是聯邦基金利率，就在它下方。

The central bank also sets a floor to keep the federal funds rate within a range.

中央銀行也會設定一個下限，讓聯邦基金利率維持在一個範圍內。

When the Fed raises or lowers that range, it's often by as little as a quarter of a point.

當聯準會調整這個範圍時，通常只會變動四分之一點。

But those tiny changes can be felt throughout the economy.

但這些微小的變動卻會影響整個經濟。

You might not think that the interest rate is all that important.

你可能不會覺得利率那麼重要。

但我們這些經濟學家可是這麼覺得的。

When interest rates are high, borrowing a lot of money to build a house doesn't make a lot of sense because you'll have to pay a lot back.

當利率很高的時候，借一大筆錢來蓋房子就沒什麼意義，因為你要還的錢會很多。

People buy fewer houses for the same reason we buy fewer cars and we buy fewer refrigerators.

大家買房子的意願降低，跟我們買車、買冰箱的意願降低是同樣的道理。

But a lot has to happen before the federal funds rate can ripple out to mortgages and even beyond.

不過，聯邦基金利率要影響到房貸，甚至更廣泛的層面，還有很多事情需要發生。

Since banks borrow at the federal funds rate, they'll always lend out at a higher rate than that.

因為銀行也是用聯邦基金利率來借錢，所以他們借出的利率一定會比這個高。

Banks add 3% to the federal funds rate to establish the prime rate.

銀行會在聯邦基金利率上加 3% 來訂定優質客戶利率。

It's what they charge to their best borrowers, the ones with the strongest history of borrowing.

這是他們向信用最好的借款人收取的利率，也就是那些有最強借款紀錄的人。

Now the prime rate plays a big part in the rate you get on car loans, personal loans and credit cards.

現在，這個優質客戶利率在您申請的車貸、個人信貸和信用卡利率中扮演了很重要的角色。

They're going to look at everything from that person's employment history, their credit history, their credit score.

他們會審視從這個人的就業紀錄、信用紀錄，到他的信用評分等所有一切。

They want to know what it is that they're borrowing to buy.

他們想知道你借錢來買的是什麼。

When you compare these loans, they're all closely correlated to the prime rate.

當你比較這些貸款時，它們都與優質利率密切相關。

They're also correlated to the prime rate, but with a bit more variance.

它們也與優質利率相關，但變動幅度稍大一些。

The federal funds rate started to go down in September of 2024, and

聯邦基金利率在 2024 年 9 月開始下降，

so did the prime rate, as did credit cards and personal loans.

優質利率也跟著下降，信用卡和個人貸款也是如此。

But remember, mortgage rates didn't because they include an additional factor, the 10 year treasury bond.

但請記住，房貸利率沒有下降，因為它們包含一個額外因素：10 年期國債。

You can see that mortgages follow the 10 year treasury bond much closer than the prime rate.

你可以看到，房貸比優質利率更緊密地跟隨 10 年期國債。

And that's because mortgages and 10 year bonds are pretty similar.

這是因為房貸和 10 年期國債非常相似。

When you buy a 10 year bond from the US treasury, it pays you a fixed interest rate over its entire duration, just like how you pay a fixed rate on your mortgage over 30 years.

當你購買美國財政部的 10 年期國債時，它會在整個期限內支付你固定的利率，就像你 30 年房貸支付固定利率一樣。

But here's the thing, even though it's called a 30 year mortgage, most people keep a mortgage for only 10 years, which is why they follow 10 year treasury bonds.

但問題是，即使它被稱為 30 年房貸，大多數人持有房貸的時間其實只有 10 年，這就是為什麼它們會跟隨 10 年期國債。

And the rate that a 10 year bond pays is determined by a market.

而 10 年期國債的利率是由市場決定的。

And it looks at the federal funds rate today and what it thinks will happen to it in the future.

它會觀察今天的聯邦基金利率以及未來可能發生的情況。

If the bond market believes the federal funds rate will go up, it will demand a higher rate.

如果債券市場認為聯邦基金利率會上升，它就會要求更高的利率。

They're thinking about government spending over the next 10 years, government borrowing over the 10 years, how vast the economy is projected to grow and how safe US Institutions are, how stable the economy is, how before they decide how much they want to lend to the US government, the long term view of the 10 year bond means it can move in a different direction to the federal funds rate, which is based on the short term.

他們會考量未來 10 年的政府支出、政府借貸、經濟預計成長幅度，以及美國機構的安全性、經濟的穩定性，然後才會決定願意借多少錢給美國政府。10 年期國債的長期視角意味著它可能會與聯邦基金利率朝不同方向移動，而聯邦基金利率是基於短期考量的。

In a lot of ways, the bond market has a veto over the Fed.

在很多方面，債券市場對聯準會有否決權。

And what I mean by that is if bond market investors, they don't trust that the Fed is going to actually get inflation under control, then they can rebel by causing interest rates in the bond market to go even higher.

我的意思是，如果債券市場的投資人不相信聯準會真的能控制住通膨，他們就可以透過推升債券市場的利率來反抗。

And so that's why it's really important that the Fed means what they say when they promise to get inflation under control.

這就是為什麼聯準會說到做到、承諾控制通膨非常重要。

Because if they don't, then it can completely backfire because of the power of the bond market.

因為如果他們做不到，債券市場的力量可能會讓一切適得其反。

But the Fed doesn't believe it's to blame for the divergence in the federal funds rate and the 10 year treasury bonds.

但聯準會並不認為聯邦基金利率和 10 年期美國國債之間出現差異是他們的錯。

Surveys are all saying that the public understands our commitment to 2% and expects us to get back there.

各項調查都顯示，民眾瞭解我們對 2% 的承諾，也期望我們能回到這個目標。

It must be an expectation of higher growth or something like that.

應該是預期到未來經濟成長會更好，或是類似的狀況。

The Fed can only control monetary policy in the here and now.

聯準會只能控制當下的貨幣政策。

If Trump wants mortgages to come down, the bond market has to trust his long term fiscal policy.

如果川普希望房貸利率下降，債券市場就必須相信他長期的財政政策。