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  • "Give me liberty or give me death."

    「不自由,毋寧死」,

  • When Patrick Henry, the governor of Virginia,

    1775年,維吉尼亞州州長

  • said these words in 1775,

    派翠克•亨利(Patrick Henry)說這話的時候,

  • he could never have imagined

    當時他可能無法想像,

  • just how much they would come to resonate

    這句話在美國後代,

  • with American generations to come.

    將要掀起的廣大迴響。

  • At the time, these words were earmarked

    當時,這句伏筆是衝著

  • and targeted against the British,

    英國殖民政府說的;

  • but over the last 200 years, they've come to embody

    但200年來, 這句話恰好體現了

  • what many Westerners believe,

    廣為西方人接受的信念:

  • that freedom is the most cherished value,

    自由是最寶貴的價值,

  • and that the best systems of politics and economics

    而最好的政治經濟體制,

  • have freedom embedded in them.

    必有自由的內涵。

  • Who could blame them?

    這是理所當然的!

  • Over the past hundred years, the combination

    一百年來,民主自由

  • of liberal democracy and private capitalism

    加上資本主義,

  • has helped to catapult the United States

    讓美國

  • and Western countries

    和西方國家

  • to new levels of economic development.

    的經濟發展水平提升到新高度。

  • In the United States over the past hundred years,

    美國國民收入在過去的百年間,

  • incomes have increased 30 times,

    增長了30倍;

  • and hundreds of thousands of people

    有數十萬美國人,

  • have been moved out of poverty.

    擺脫貧窮。

  • Meanwhile, American ingenuity and innovation

    同時,美國人的創新能力,

  • has helped to spur industrialization

    帶動工業化,

  • and also helped in the creation and the building

    也助長了創造與建設,

  • of things like household appliances

    家電產品就是其中的例子,

  • such as refrigerators and televisions,

    像是冰箱和電視,

  • motor vehicles and even the mobile phones in your pockets.

    還有汽車,甚至是隨身攜帶的手機。

  • It's no surprise, then, that even at the depths

    也難怪,即使在資本主義

  • of the private capitalism crisis,

    深陷危機的時候,

  • President Obama said,

    歐巴馬總統仍說:

  • "The question before us is not whether the market

    「我們當前面臨的問題

  • is a force for good or ill.

    不是市場機制的優劣。

  • Its power to generate wealth and to expand freedom

    畢竟以增加財富和發揚自由來說,

  • is unmatched."

    這種機制的效果無可匹敵。」

  • Thus, there's understandably

    所以,不難理解西方人為何

  • a deep-seated presumption among Westerners

    執著地認定,

  • that the whole world will decide to adopt

    全世界都將以私人資本主義

  • private capitalism as the model of economic growth,

    作為經濟發展的模式。

  • liberal democracy, and will continue

    而自由民主制度中, 政治權的重要性

  • to prioritize political rights over economic rights.

    仍會大於經濟權。

  • However, to many who live in the emerging markets,

    然而,對許多新興市場的人來說,

  • this is an illusion, and even though

    這不過是虛幻。而且,

  • the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,

    1948年就已簽署的

  • which was signed in 1948,

    世界人權宣言,

  • was unanimously adopted,

    儘管已廣受採納,

  • what it did was to mask a schism

    但當時其實是用來掩飾

  • that has emerged between developed and developing countries,

    發達國家和發展中國家間 既有的隔閡,

  • and the ideological beliefs

    以及政治權力和經濟利益方面

  • between political and economic rights.

    意識形態的分歧。

  • This schism has only grown wider.

    且這樣的鴻溝不減反增。

  • Today, many people who live in the emerging markets,

    目前的全球人口, 超過9成生活在新興市場國家,

  • where 90 percent of the world's population lives,

    其中有很多人認為

  • believe that the Western obsession

    西方社會所熱衷的政治權,

  • with political rights is beside the point,

    是無關緊要的。

  • and what is actually important

    真正重要的是,

  • is delivering on food, shelter,

    食物和住所有著落,

  • education and healthcare.

    還有教育機會及醫療保健。

  • "Give me liberty or give me death"

    「不自由,毋寧死」 是在生活無憂下,

  • is all well and good if you can afford it,

    才有辦法談的。

  • but if you're living on less than one dollar a day,

    若你每天的生活費 只有不到1塊美金,

  • you're far too busy trying to survive

    為了養家餬口,

  • and to provide for your family

    就已經忙不過來了,

  • than to spend your time going around

    就別奢望還會有時間四處奔波,

  • trying to proclaim and defend democracy.

    鼓吹及捍衛民主。

  • Now, I know many people in this room

    我知道在場有很多人,

  • and around the world will think,

    還有全世界範圍的很多人會認為,

  • "Well actually, this is hard to grasp,"

    「說真的,這很難讓人接受。」

  • because private capitalism and liberal democracy

    因為,私人資本主義和自由民主

  • are held sacrosanct.

    都是不容置疑的。

  • But I ask you today, what would you do

    我現在請教各位, 若非得選擇不可,

  • if you had to choose?

    你會怎麼做?

  • What if you had to choose

    如果必須選擇,

  • between a roof over your head

    你是要有地方住,

  • and the right to vote?

    還是寧可要投票權?

  • Over the last 10 years,

    在過去的十年當中,

  • I've had the privilege to travel to over 60 countries,

    我有幸造訪60多國,

  • many of them in the emerging markets,

    其中有很多是拉丁美洲,亞洲,

  • in Latin America, Asia,

    還有我家鄉非洲,

  • and my own continent of Africa.

    的新興市場國家。

  • I've met with presidents, dissidents,

    我見過總統,異議人士,

  • policymakers, lawyers, teachers,

    政策制定者,律師,教師,

  • doctors and the man on the street,

    醫生和平民,

  • and through these conversations,

    跟他們訪談過後,

  • it's become clear to me

    我明白了一件事

  • that many people in the emerging markets

    新興市場國家中有許多人認為

  • believe that there's actually a split occurring

    以政治和經濟來看

  • between what people believe ideologically

    在所信奉的意識形態上

  • in terms of politics and economics in the West

    西方國家和其他地區之間

  • and that which people believe in the rest of the world.

    目前的確存在著分歧。

  • Now, don't get me wrong.

    不要誤解我的意思。

  • I'm not saying people in the emerging markets

    我不是說新興市場地區的人

  • don't understand democracy,

    不懂民主,

  • nor am I saying that they wouldn't ideally

    也不是說他們

  • like to pick their presidents or their leaders.

    不想投票選出總統或領袖。

  • Of course they would.

    他們當然想。

  • However, I am saying that on balance,

    然而若考慮各種條件,

  • they worry more about

    他們比較在意

  • where their living standard improvements are going to come from,

    能改善生活水準的因素,

  • and how it is their governments can deliver for them,

    還有政府要如何為他們带來福祉,

  • than whether or not the government

    至於政府是否由民主選舉產生

  • was elected by democracy.

    反倒没那麼重要。

  • The fact of the matter

    事實是,

  • is that this has become a very poignant question

    這樣的分歧已成為沈痛的問題

  • because there is for the first time in a long time

    因為這是西方的政經意識型態

  • a real challenge to the Western ideological systems

    長久以來

  • of politics and economics,

    首度面臨真正的挑戰,

  • and this is a system that is embodied by China.

    也就是由中國具體實現的體制。

  • And rather than have private capitalism, they have state capitalism.

    捨私人資本主義, 採行國家資本主義。

  • Instead of liberal democracy, they have de-prioritized the democratic system.

    降低民主制度的優先地位, 而不全然採納。

  • And they have also decided to prioritize

    同時決定

  • economic rights over political rights.

    先顧經濟利益, 再談政治權利。

  • I put it to you today that it is this system

    不妨這樣說好了,

  • that is embodied by China

    中國施行的這個體制

  • that is gathering momentum amongst people

    在新興市場地區凝聚了不小的聲勢,

  • in the emerging markets as the system to follow,

    還被奉為值得效仿的體制,

  • because they believe increasingly

    因為他們越來越相信

  • that it is the system

    這種制度

  • that will promise the best and fastest improvements

    能在最短的時間內

  • in living standards in the shortest period of time.

    以最快最好的方式改善生活水準。

  • If you will indulge me, I will spend a few moments

    容我先花一些時間

  • explaining to you first

    向你們解釋

  • why economically they've come to this belief.

    為何人們在經濟上有這樣的結論。

  • First of all, it's China's economic performance

    首先,過去30年來,

  • over the past 30 years.

    中國的經濟表現。

  • She's been able to produce record economic growth

    開創了空前的成長,

  • and meaningfully move many people out of poverty,

    讓許多人大幅擺脱貧窮,

  • specifically putting a meaningful dent in poverty

    尤其是改善貧窮

  • by moving over 300 million people

    有3億多人

  • out of indigence.

    因而脫離赤貧。

  • It's not just in economics,

    這不只是指經濟上,

  • but it's also in terms of living standards.

    還有生活水準也是。

  • We see that in China, 28 percent of people

    另一項眼見為實的是, 1970年的時候

  • had secondary school access.

    還只有28%的中國人 接受中學教育。

  • Today, it's closer to 82 percent.

    目前,這數字逼近82%。

  • So in its totality, economic improvement

    所以整體而言,

  • has been quite significant.

    經濟明顯好轉。

  • Second, China has been able

    其次,中國在

  • to meaningfully improve its income inequality

    不改變政治結構的狀況下,

  • without changing the political construct.

    大幅改善國民所得不均的現象。

  • Today, the United States and China

    目前,美國和中國

  • are the two leading economies in the world.

    是全球兩大經濟體。

  • They have vastly different political systems

    兩國各有迥然不同的

  • and different economic systems,

    政治經濟體制,

  • one with private capitalism,

    一邊是資本主義,

  • another one broadly with state capitalism.

    另一邊是國家資本主義。

  • However, these two countries

    然而中美兩國

  • have the identical GINI Coefficient,

    卻有非常接近的吉尼係數(Gini coefficient),

  • which is a measure of income equality.

    這數據是用來衡量所得分配的公平度。

  • Perhaps what is more disturbing

    但也許更令人不安的,

  • is that China's income equality

    是中國的所得分配

  • has been improving in recent times,

    近來持續改善,

  • whereas that of the United States

    反觀美國

  • has been declining.

    情況卻持續惡化。

  • Thirdly, people in the emerging markets

    第三,在新興市場地區

  • look at China's amazing and legendary

    人們目睹中國驚人且聲名大噪的

  • infrastructure rollout.

    基礎建設成果。

  • This is not just about China

    而我要說的是,

  • building roads and ports and railways

    中國不只在國內

  • in her own country --

    建造道路、港灣和鐵路,

  • she's been able to build 85,000 kilometers

    中國境內修築的道路網,

  • of road network in China

    累計已有8萬5千公里,

  • and surpass that of the United States --

    長度已超越美國。

  • but even if you look to places like Africa,

    即使在其他地區,例如非洲

  • China has been able to help tar the distance

    中國也已協助鋪設

  • of Cape Town to Cairo,

    大約9千英里的道路,

  • which is 9,000 miles,

    這距離相當於開普敦到開羅,

  • or three times the distance of New York to California.

    是紐約和加州間距離的3倍。

  • Now this is something that people can see and point to.

    這是大家有目共睹的。

  • Perhaps it's no surprise

    或許這也難怪,

  • that in a 2007 Pew survey, when surveyed,

    2007年的皮尤調查(Pew survey)中,

  • Africans in 10 countries said

    來自非洲10國的受訪者中認為,

  • they thought that the Chinese were doing

    中國做了許多驚人之舉

  • amazing things to improve their livelihoods

    來改善他們的生計,

  • by wide margins, by as much as 98 percent.

    而改善的幅度竟高達9成8。

  • Finally, China is also providing innovative solutions

    最後,中國也能以創新的方式

  • to age-old social problems that the world faces.

    解決困擾各國已久的社會問題。

  • If you travel to Mogadishu, Mexico City or Mumbai,

    如果你到摩加迪休(索馬利亞首都), 墨西哥城或孟買,

  • you find that dilapidated infrastructure and logistics

    就會發現殘破不堪的

  • continue to be a stumbling block

    基礎建設和調度系統,

  • to the delivery of medicine and healthcare

    仍是將醫療保健物資

  • in the rural areas.

    送往偏遠地區的一大障礙。

  • However, through a network of state-owned enterprises,

    但靠著與國營企業通力合作,

  • the Chinese have been able to go into these rural areas,

    中國已能夠藉著國企的力量,

  • using their companies

    深入這些偏遠地區

  • to help deliver on these healthcare solutions.

    協助解決當地的醫藥衛生問題。

  • Ladies and gentlemen, it's no surprise

    女士們先生們, 這就不難理解

  • that around the world, people are pointing at what China is doing and saying,

    中國的一舉一動為何受到全球關注,

  • "I like that. I want that.

    到處都有人說: 「真的很棒,我也希望如此。

  • I want to be able to do what China's doing.

    我希望可以像現在的中國那樣,

  • That is the system that seems to work."

    看來他們的體制是行得通的。」

  • I'm here to also tell you

    我還要告訴你們

  • that there are lots of shifts occurring

    隨著中國的發展,

  • around what China is doing

    對民主的觀點

  • in the democratic stance.

    也產生了許多變化。

  • In particular, there is growing doubt

    尤其是新興市場地區的人

  • among people in the emerging markets,

    越來越抱持懷疑的態度,

  • when people now believe that democracy

    目前人們開始認為,民主制度

  • is no longer to be viewed

    不再被視為

  • as a prerequisite for economic growth.

    經濟發展的先決條件。

  • In fact, countries like Taiwan, Singapore, Chile,

    實際上,不只中國,

  • not just China, have shown that actually,

    臺灣,新加坡,智利等, 都證實了這點。

  • it's economic growth that is a prerequisite

    經濟發展才是

  • for democracy.

    民主制度的先決條件。

  • In a recent study, the evidence has shown

    最近有研究證據顯示,

  • that income is the greatest determinant

    民主能維持多久,

  • of how long a democracy can last.

    取決於國民收入。

  • The study found that if your per capita income

    這項研究指出,年國民所得平均

  • is about 1,000 dollars a year,

    若達到1千美金左右,

  • your democracy will last about eight and a half years.

    大約可維持8年半的民主;

  • If your per capita income is between

    假如平均收入落在

  • 2,000 and 4,000 dollars per year,

    美金2千到4千美元之間,

  • then you're likely to only get 33 years of democracy.

    那麼大概會有33年的民主。

  • And only if your per capita income

    只有當國民平均收入

  • is above 6,000 dollars a year

    超過美金6千元

  • will you have democracy come hell or high water.

    民主才能屹立不搖。

  • What this is telling us

    這告訴我們,

  • is that we need to first establish a middle class

    首先要有中產階級,

  • that is able to hold the government accountable.

    才能讓政府對人民負責。

  • But perhaps it's also telling us

    但這也告訴我們,

  • that we should be worried about going

    我們最好不要

  • around the world and shoehorning democracy,

    到處將民主強加於人,

  • because ultimately we run the risk

    因為我們最後

  • of ending up with illiberal democracies,

    有可能淪為非自由民主制,

  • democracies that in some sense

    某方面來說,這樣的民主

  • could be worse than the authoritarian governments

    比原本應該被取代的威權政府

  • that they seek to replace.

    還要糟糕。

  • The evidence around illiberal democracies

    談到非自由民主制的證據,

  • is quite depressing.

    是頗令人沮喪的。

  • Freedom House finds that although 50 percent

    自由之家(Freedom House)發現,

  • of the world's countries today are democratic,

    儘管全球半數以上都是民主國家,

  • 70 percent of those countries are illiberal

    但其中7成的國家是不自由的,

  • in the sense that people don't have free speech

    嚴格意義上,人們沒有

  • or freedom of movement.

    言論自由或遷徙自由。

  • But also, we're finding from Freedom House

    不過,自由之家

  • in a study that they published last year

    去年發表的研究也顯示,

  • that freedom has been on the decline

    最近七年,自由狀況

  • every year for the past seven years.

    每年都在惡化。

  • What this says

    這表示

  • is that for people like me

    像我一樣

  • who care about liberal democracy,

    關心自由民主的人,

  • is we've got to find a more sustainable way

    必須尋求長久之計

  • of ensuring that we have a sustainable form

    以確保我們享有

  • of democracy in a liberal way,

    以經濟為基礎、

  • and that has its roots in economics.

    永續的開放式民主。

  • But it also says that as China moves

    這也說明,當中國即將如同

  • toward being the largest economy in the world,

    部分專家所預測,

  • something that is expected to happen

    在2016年

  • by experts in 2016,

    成為全球最大經濟體時,

  • that this schism between the political

    西方國家和其他地區間,

  • and economic ideologies of the West and the rest

    政治經濟意識形態的分歧

  • is likely to widen.

    可能會擴大。

  • What might that world look