Name: 大多數人都不知道特斯拉股票會發生什麼變化 (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Tesla Stock)
Uploaded: 2025-08-15T18:19:01.000Z
Duration: 20 min 4 s

基礎被動語態

Tesla stock has witnessed one of the worst crashes in its entire history, 600 billion dollars worth of wealth was wiped out in less than 6 months.

特斯拉股票經歷了歷史上最嚴重的股災之一，價值 6000 億美元的財富在不到 6 個月的時間裡化為烏有。

情態副詞

Tesla fans were hoping that when president trump is going to get into the office, they are finally going to cash out as real loyal fans of Tesla.

特斯拉粉絲們希望特朗普總統上臺後，他們作為特斯拉真正的忠實粉絲終於可以兌現了。

And if you look at the chart, it seems like Tesla crash is going to continue and its not going to stop.

從圖表上看，特斯拉的崩潰似乎還將繼續，不會停止。

But what if I told you that this is just the beginning.

但如果我告訴你，這僅僅是個開始呢？

What if I told you that the worst is most likely going to come.

如果我告訴你，最壞的情況很可能會發生。

So if you look at your Tesla investments and they are down by 50%, there is a real good possibility that you will see your Tesla stock going down by another 50%.

是以，如果你看到你的特斯拉投資下跌了 50%，你就很有可能看到你的特斯拉股票再下跌 50%。

So here in this video, let's try to answer a couple of questions.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我們試著回答幾個問題。

現在是購買特斯拉股票的好時機嗎？

And will Tesla stock ever reach 500 dollars per stock?

特斯拉的股價能達到每股 500 美元嗎？

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

What a lot of Tesla investors do not understand is that Tesla is not an actual investment.

很多特斯拉投資者不明白的是，特斯拉並不是一項實際投資。

I know that it sounds a bit controversial, but let me try to make my point.

我知道這聽起來有點爭議，但請允許我試著說明我的觀點。

If you actually go right now and buy the Tesla stock right now, you are going to buy it for the exact same price as people have actually bought it almost 5 years ago, in December of 2022, because back then, the price was around 235 dollars, yes, the price right now is around 248 dollars, but couple of days ago, it was around 230 dollars.

如果你現在去購買特斯拉股票，你將會以與近 5 年前，即 2022 年 12 月的價格完全相同的價格購買，因為那時的價格約為 235 美元，是的，現在的價格約為 248 美元，但幾天前的價格約為 230 美元。

So the question is that, shouldn't stock prices represent the businesses behind them?

那麼問題來了，股票價格難道不應該代表其背後的企業嗎？

Tesla did actually grew over the last 5 years, they have actually produced much more cars they built a lot more factories.

事實上，特斯拉在過去 5 年裡確實有所發展，他們生產了更多的汽車，建造了更多的工廠。

Why aren't stock prices are growing as much as the value of the business behind it?

為什麼股票價格的增長不如背後企業價值的增長？

And it's very clear, even if you pull out their financial statements, if you look at their income statement, their revenue was around 15 to 20 billion dollars back in 2020.

而且很明顯，即使你拿出他們的財務報表，如果你看看他們的損益表，他們的收入在 2020 年時大約是 150 億到 200 億美元。

Right now, it has actually grown to around 100 billion dollars and yet the stock still remains at around 235 and 240 dollars.

現在，它實際上已增長到約 1 000 億美元，但股價仍停留在 235 美元和 240 美元左右。

And that's because there is a very serious problem with the stock market that the stocks that you see in the market do not represent the value of the businesses behind them.

這是因為股票市場存在一個非常嚴重的問題，即你在市場上看到的股票並不代表其背後企業的價值。

Now it doesn't actually make sense because a lot of people would say otherwise, that's the point of the stock market, but what drives the prices in the market aren't the real values, but rather demand and supply.

現在看來，這其實並不合理，因為很多人都會說不對，這就是股市的意義所在，但推動市場價格的並不是真正的價值，而是供求關係。

If there is a huge demand for any particular stock, no matter what is the value behind it, the price of that stock is going to rise.

如果對某隻股票有巨大的需求，無論其背後的價值是什麼，該股票的價格都會上漲。

On the other side, if there is an oversupply of that stock in the market, well, there is no demand, the price is going to fall.

另一方面，如果市場上該股票供過於求，那麼，沒有需求，價格就會下跌。

That is the logic that the market is following.

And you can easily manipulate that logic, and that's what usually happens in the stock market.

你可以輕而易舉地操縱這種邏輯，這就是股市中通常發生的情況。

And that's why there is a small tiny percentage of really great investors who make money in the stock market, while everybody else doesn't.

這就是為什麼只有極少數真正優秀的投資者能在股市中賺到錢，而其他人卻賺不到錢的原因。

Because those great investors do understand this difference and they do understand how to find the values behind those businesses.

因為那些偉大的投資者確實瞭解這種差異，他們也確實瞭解如何找到這些企業背後的價值。

And if you look at the value behind Tesla, then there is no value of over a trillion dollars.

如果你看看特斯拉背後的價值，那就沒有超過萬億美元的價值。

So if you are actually getting frustrated, if you are angry why on earth Tesla doesn't worth over a trillion dollars, then you do not understand stock analysis and you do not understand how investing actually works.

是以，如果你真的感到沮喪，如果你生氣為什麼特斯拉的價值沒有超過萬億美元，那麼你就不懂股票分析，你就不懂投資到底是如何運作的。

So Tesla stock at this point has turned into a gambling machine, and I don't simply mean the immature investors who don't know much about the stock market, but even if we are talking about large financial institutions, even if we talk about the hedge funds, even if we talk about people with billions of dollars, even Bill Gates at some point particularly has shorted Tesla.

是以，特斯拉股票在這一點上已經變成了賭博機，我指的不僅僅是那些對股市不甚瞭解的不成熟投資者，而是即使我們談論的是大型金融機構，即使我們談論的是對沖基金，即使我們談論的是擁有數十億美元的人，甚至比爾-蓋茨在某些時候也特別做空了特斯拉。

And when you see so much volatility in the market and you see a gambling machine like you see on the graph right here, it presents a lot of opportunity.

當你看到市場波動如此之大，你又看到了像圖中這樣的賭博機，這就帶來了很多機會。

And the problem is that when you have such a graph, a lot of hedge funds shorted and that shorting drives the price down and down.

問題是，當你看到這樣的圖表時，很多對沖基金都會做空，做空導致價格一跌再跌。

If I want to actually short Tesla stock right now, what am I going to do?

如果我現在想做空特斯拉股票，我該怎麼做？

I am going to borrow that particular stock at the price that is being traded right now.

我要以現在的交易價格借入這隻股票。

I am not buying the stock, I am borrowing that stock.

我不是在買股票，而是在借股票。

And the first thing that I do as a shorter is that I will immediately sell that stock in the open market.

作為短線交易者，我做的第一件事就是立即在公開市場上賣出股票。

So if you have a lot of people shorting a particular stock, in this case, we are talking about Tesla, then there is a massive sell off of Tesla stock.

是以，如果有很多人做空某隻股票，在這種情況下，我們說的就是特斯拉，那麼特斯拉股票就會遭到大規模拋售。

That instantly changes the dynamic of the market because that creates a lot of supply of that stock in the market, while if there is not enough demand, then the price is going to go down.

這立刻就會改變市場的動態，因為這會在市場上產生大量的股票供應，而如果沒有足夠的需求，那麼價格就會下跌。

On the other hand, if you have a stock in the market, whose real value is backed by the price that you see in front of you in the stock price, then it's very difficult to short that stock.

另一方面，如果你在市場上擁有一隻股票，而這隻股票的真實價值是以你眼前的股價為支撐的，那麼你就很難做空這隻股票。

Because everybody knows in the market that this is the value and this is the price.

因為市場上人人都知道，這就是價值，這就是價格。

And short sellers are never going to make money on it.

Because real investors understand that, why am I supposed to sell my stock of this particular company when I know from the analysis and the real facts that this is at least the true value of a particular business.

因為真正的投資者明白，當我從分析和事實中知道這至少是某家企業的真實價值時，我為什麼要賣掉這家公司的股票。

You will never see people who are actually shorting Berkshire Hathaway because people know that it's pretty much fairly valued in the market.

你永遠不會看到有人真的在做空伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司，因為人們知道它在市場上的估值是相當公平的。

You will never see people shorting the S&P 500.

你永遠不會看到有人做空標準普爾 500 指數。

You will never see hedge funds shorting even Apple.

你永遠不會看到對沖基金做空蘋果。

You see them sometimes do that, but that's very rare.

你有時會看到他們這樣做，但那是非常罕見的。

But it's not as much as they do with Tesla, for example, because there is a real value behind it.

但這並不像特斯拉等公司所做的那樣，因為這背後有真正的價值。

We are actually going to be honest with ourselves and we are going to talk about the real valuation of Tesla at this particular moment.

實際上，我們要坦誠面對自己，談談特斯拉此時此刻的真實估值。

Then Tesla is nowhere close worth to a trillion dollars.

那麼，特斯拉的價值遠遠達不到一萬億美元。

Even $700 or $800 billion for Tesla is really high.

對特斯拉來說，即使是 7000 或 8000 億美元也確實很高。

So if Tesla is going to go to its true valuation, then we're talking about $200 billion in the best case scenario.

是以，如果特斯拉要達到其真實估值，那麼最好的情況就是 2,000 億美元。

Maybe even less than that, maybe something around $150 to $200 billion.

也許比這還少，大約在 1,500 億至 2,000 億美元之間。

And if you look at the history of short sellers, you will constantly see that hedge funds have been so obsessed to short the stock.

如果你看看做空者的歷史，就會不斷髮現對沖基金一直如此痴迷於做空該股。

I mean, nobody probably, not a single stock in the market, in the entire history of the market has been as shorted as Tesla.

我的意思是，在整個市場歷史上，可能沒有一隻股票像特斯拉一樣被做空。

Jim Cheney, for example, he shorted Tesla back in 2016 when the price of Tesla was around $15, maybe probably closer to $16.

比如吉姆-切尼，他早在 2016 年就做空了特斯拉，當時特斯拉的價格在 15 美元左右，也許可能接近 16 美元。

And he held to his position up until probably like 2023 or 2022, if I'm not mistaken.

如果我沒記錯的話，他一直堅守到 2023 年或 2022 年。

And he was hoping that Tesla is going to crash because he was like a very rational person.

他希望特斯拉會崩潰，因為他是一個非常理性的人。

He took a look at the financial statements, he took a look at the expectations, he analyzed probably the entire industry, and he came up with a very reasonable number.

他看了財務報表，看了預期，分析了整個行業，得出了一個非常合理的數字。

And he was like, Tesla cannot possibly make more than an X amount of money.

他就說，特斯拉不可能賺超過 X 的錢。

And as an investor, you know that the company is not worth more than the amount of money that it can possibly make.

作為投資者，你知道公司的價值不會超過它可能賺到的錢。

If it is going to make, for example, even a trillion dollars, but if that's going to take Tesla to make that much money, a hundred thousand years, then it doesn't worth it.

比如說，如果它能賺到一萬億美元，但如果特斯拉要花十萬年才能賺到這麼多錢，那它就不值得。

When we are talking about investments, it's very difficult to make any kind of expectations above 10 years or above 20 years, maybe even in the best case scenario, we are talking about 30 years, but not more than that.

當我們談論投資時，很難做出任何超過 10 年或 20 年的預期，甚至在最好的情況下，我們談論的是 30 年，但不會超過 30 年。

So if the company or Tesla in this case cannot make that much money in the next 10 years, especially when the company is huge, especially when there is so much competition, then that raises a question.

是以，如果公司或特斯拉在未來 10 年內無法賺到那麼多錢，尤其是當公司規模龐大時，尤其是當競爭如此激烈時，就會產生疑問。

And that's why Jim Cheney suddenly tried to short Tesla and it was a disaster.

這就是為什麼吉姆-切尼突然想做空特斯拉，結果卻一敗塗地。

He lost, I don't know how much money he lost, because I don't know how big his short position was.

他輸了，我不知道他輸了多少錢，因為我不知道他的空頭頭寸有多大。

Michael Burry also bet against Tesla back in May of 2021.

早在 2021 年 5 月，邁克爾-伯裡（Michael Burry）也曾對特斯拉下過賭注。

He purchased $800,000 worth of put options.

他購買了價值 80 萬美元的看跌期權。

A put option is basically a contract that allows the person who buys that contract to sell a particular stock at a particular price.

看跌期權基本上是一種允許買入者以特定價格賣出特定股票的合約。

So for example, if I'm going to buy, for example, a put option at $200, then the stock is going to go down to $150.

舉例來說，如果我要買入 200 美元的看跌期權，那麼股價就會跌至 150 美元。

I'm going to buy it at $150 and I'm going to sell it for $200.

我打算以 150 美元買入，然後以 200 美元賣出。

Well, you might say, who is going to buy it from you for $200 when the stock is actually falling to $150.

那麼，你可能會說，誰會以 200 美元的價格從你這裡買它呢，而實際上股票已經跌到了 150 美元。

You're making a bet against the stock because you believe that this stock is going to fall.

你對這隻股票下注，是因為你相信這隻股票會下跌。

And when you see so many people, for example, buying a put option for a particular stock, then there is a general sentiment within the entire market that this stock is most likely going to fall because so many analysts, so many hedge funds, so many financial experts believe that this stock is going to fall and they are taking action, which means that they are literally putting their money on the line that this particular stock is going to go down.

舉例來說，當你看到這麼多人買入某隻股票的看跌期權，那麼整個市場就會有一種普遍的情緒，認為這隻股票很有可能會下跌，因為這麼多分析師、這麼多對沖基金、這麼多金融專家都認為這隻股票會下跌，而且他們正在採取行動，這意味著他們實際上是在把自己的錢押在這隻股票會下跌上。

But it was a bad bet because he didn't actually make money.

但這是一個糟糕的賭注，因為他實際上並沒有賺到錢。

Since then, Tesla stock has grown substantially.

I don't know how Elon Musk actually pulled something like that because short sellers over the years have lost so much money.

我不知道埃隆-馬斯克到底是怎麼做到的，因為這些年來做空者已經虧了很多錢。

I don't think short sellers or in particular hedge funds has lost as much money as they did in Tesla.

我不認為賣空者或特別是對沖基金在特斯拉上損失了那麼多錢。

Because every time when you see a Tesla rally, every time when they see that the stock price of Tesla has grown so much and they do their math and they find out that it doesn't worth anything close to that, it is overvalued by a hundred times, they immediately take positions to short it.

因為每次當你看到特斯拉反彈時，每次當他們看到特斯拉的股價增長了這麼多，而他們計算後發現它根本不值這個價，它被高估了上百倍時，他們就會立即建倉做空。

But then Tesla or Elon Musk comes with something in particular that drives so much hype around Tesla and you see the stock skyrockets to the roof and you see the stock goes and jumps to the places that nobody could possibly imagine, just like it happened last year.

但是，特斯拉或埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）會帶來一些特別的東西，為特斯拉帶來大量的炒作，你會看到特斯拉的股價一飛沖天，你會看到特斯拉的股價躥升到任何人都無法想象的高度，就像去年發生的那樣。

I mean, who could have thought that Elon Musk is going to get into politics and is going to back Donald Trump and is going to help him win the presidency and then he will be part of the government.

我的意思是，誰能想到埃隆-馬斯克會涉足政壇，會支持唐納德-特朗普，會幫助他贏得總統寶座，然後他會成為政府的一員。

Who could have actually imagined that just a couple of years ago or even a year ago.

就在幾年前甚至一年前，誰又能真正想到這一點呢？

Which is why in June of 2021, almost around 100 hedge funds again shorted Tesla, but it was also a disaster because they thought that this is an overvalued stock and it must actually go down.

這就是為什麼在 2021 年 6 月，近 100 家對沖基金再次做空特斯拉，但這也是一場災難，因為他們認為這是一隻被高估的股票，它必須下跌。

The stock has actually increased dramatically, hedge funds lost so much money.

實際上，股價已經大幅上漲，對沖基金損失慘重。

The longer you keep to your position as a short seller, the higher the likelihood that you will lose more money, which is why if you actually made a wrong bet shorting a particular stock, it's much better to exit your position as soon as possible.

做空時間越長，虧損的可能性就越大，這就是為什麼如果你做空某隻股票的賭注下錯了，最好儘快離場。

Last year, back in 2024, around summer, hedge funds also shorted, around 100 hedge funds shorted Tesla stock massively and they made over 20 billion dollars if I am not mistaken at this point.

去年，也就是 2024 年夏天左右，對沖基金也做空了特斯拉股票，大約有 100 家對沖基金大規模做空特斯拉股票，如果我沒記錯的話，他們在這一點上賺了 200 多億美元。

最後，他們在特斯拉上賺了錢。

They have been losing so much money on Tesla for the last, I don't know how many years, 5 years, 10 years, probably longer than that, well, maybe not longer than that because Tesla hasn't been that popular, it became a mainstream company in the last 10 years, and short sellers always lost to Elon Musk.

過去，我不知道有多少年了，5 年、10 年，可能比這更長，也許不比這更長，因為特斯拉並沒有那麼受歡迎，它在過去 10 年裡成為了一家主流公司，做空者總是輸給埃隆-馬斯克。

Even if you look at the history of Tesla stock, you will continuously see that there has been active positions to short Tesla.

即使查看特斯拉股票的歷史，你也會不斷髮現有人在積極建倉做空特斯拉。

Do you see short float, that is basically a percentage of outstanding shares of any company that has been being shorted.

您是否看到空頭浮盈，這基本上是指任何公司被做空的流通股所佔的百分比。

Back in summer of 2024, it was closer to 4 percent.

2024 年夏天，這一比例接近 4%。

Even 4 percent isn't actually that high, but anything above 5 percent is considered that the stock is massively overvalued and there is a massive position to short it.

即使是 4%，實際上也不算高，但只要超過 5%，就會被認為股價被嚴重高估，有大量倉位可以做空。

Because if everybody in the market is so convinced that this stock in particular is so overvalued and they are shorting it, it doesn't simply mean that it's overvalued, but because of this huge large short position, there is going to be an oversupply of that stock in the market which will lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of that stock to crash.

因為，如果市場上的每個人都堅信這隻股票的價值被高估了，並且都在做空這隻股票，那麼這並不僅僅意味著這隻股票的價值被高估了，而是因為這隻股票存在大量的空頭頭寸，市場上將會出現供過於求的情況，從而導致這隻股票崩盤的預言不攻自破。

If we go to 2021, it has been over 5 percent, 6 percent, 8 percent, 6.21 percent.

如果我們到 2021 年，它已經超過了 5%、6%、8%、6.21%。

This was 2020 and 2021, every single stock in the market was overvalued and investors are expecting that the Fed is going to increase interest rates, so it's time to short it because when it's going to fall, then we are going to make a lot of money out of it.

這是 2020 年和 2021 年，市場上的每一隻股票都被高估了，投資者預期美聯儲將加息，所以是時候做空了，因為當它要下跌時，我們就能從中賺大錢。