Name: 美國經濟出現嚴重問題 (Something is going deeply wrong inside US economy)
Uploaded: 2025-07-17T09:33:13.000Z
Duration: 24 min 51 s

United States is on the brink of 1929 style depression.

美國正處於 1929 年式大蕭條的邊緣。

This is going to be by far the greatest crisis in the history of the United States.

這將是迄今為止美國曆史上最嚴重的危機。

情態助動詞 B1

And it might seem like I'm exaggerating, but if you dig deep into it, you will find out that I'm not exaggerating at all.

這似乎有些誇張，但如果你深入瞭解，就會發現我一點也不誇張。

And after doing all of the research, I found out that it's a lot worse than I initially thought.

經過研究，我發現情況比我最初想象的要糟糕得多。

So instead of actually trying to scare you, let me simply explain what exactly is happening.

所以，與其嚇唬你們，不如讓我簡單解釋一下到底發生了什麼。

And you will judge by the end of the video, because this is some strange thing that is happening with the economy.

你會在視頻結束時做出判斷，因為這是經濟領域正在發生的一些奇怪的事情。

So if you're ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

To understand that, we have to understand how the economy works.

要理解這一點，我們必須瞭解經濟是如何運行的。

A hundred years ago, the GDP of the United States was $19 billion.

一百年前，美國的國內生產總值為 190 億美元。

If we adjust that to today's numbers after inflation, that's a trillion dollars.

如果我們將其調整為今天的通貨膨脹後的數字，那就是一萬億美元。

今天的國內生產總值是 30 萬億美元。

However, it wasn't a straight line growth.

There has been recessions, crises, and many more.

經歷過經濟衰退、危機，還有更多。

There has been even wars that drag the economy down and down.

甚至還發生過拖累經濟的戰爭。

However, every single time the economy got out of that crisis and continued to grow.

然而，每一次經濟都能走出危機，繼續增長。

When people have more money in their savings and in their pockets, they start spending money.

當人們的存款和口袋裡的錢多起來時，他們就會開始花錢。

That spending turns into an economic growth and the economy keeps growing and growing and growing.

支出轉化為經濟增長，經濟不斷增長，增長，再增長。

In fact, at certain times, people feel like the economy will grow forever.

事實上，在某些時候，人們會覺得經濟將永遠增長。

Back in 2020 and 2021, everybody thought that the stock market will never collapse and people threw every single penny they could into the market.

早在 2020 年和 2021 年，每個人都認為股市永遠不會崩盤，人們把能投的每一分錢都投進了股市。

However, at certain points, the economy peaks when inflation starts rising faster than the economy.

然而，在某些時候，當通貨膨脹率的上升速度開始超過經濟增長速度時，經濟就會達到頂峰。

When the Fed realizes that inflation is growing faster than the economy, the Federal Reserve increases the interest rates in order to cool down the economy and control inflation.

當美聯儲意識到通貨膨脹的增長速度超過經濟增長速度時，美聯儲就會提高利率，以冷卻經濟和控制通貨膨脹。

High interest rates leads to lower spending within the economy.

When you spend less money, then businesses have to adjust, which means that they have to lower down their cost.

當你花的錢少了，企業就必須調整，也就是必須降低成本。

And one of the ways they do that is by shrinking their workforce, which means that unemployment starts rising.

其中一個辦法就是縮減勞動力，這意味著失業率開始上升。

They start spending less money, which means that the economy starts to slow down.

他們開始減少消費，這意味著經濟開始放緩。

At certain points, the economy even shrinks.

在某些時候，經濟甚至會萎縮。

When the Fed realizes that the economy entered into a recession and inflation has cooled down because inflation happens when people spend too much money.

當美聯儲意識到經濟進入衰退期，通貨膨脹已經降溫，因為當人們花錢太多時，通貨膨脹就會發生。

But now people are not spending money and the economy is in a recession.

但現在人們不花錢，經濟陷入衰退。

The Federal Reserve steps in, lower down interest rates.

Businesses borrow money, hire more people.

Spending goes up and the same cycle repeats over and over and over.

支出增加，同樣的循環一遍又一遍地重複。

There are two ways for the economy or the government to control the economic cycle.

經濟或政府控制經濟週期的方法有兩種。

One is to lower down interest rate, but it does not always work.

一是降低利率，但並不總是有效。

Other times when the government realizes that we have lowered down interest rates to almost 0% and it's not working, then the government starts to borrow money in order to stimulate the economy.

還有一些時候，當政府意識到我們已經將利率下調至幾乎 0% 的水準，但並沒有奏效時，政府就會開始借錢來刺激經濟。

The government is this giant institution that has the ability to borrow a lot of money.

政府是一個巨大的機構，有能力借入大量資金。

Investors are the people who are sitting with some extra money.

They lend money to the government of the United States.

The government takes that money and starts spending.

More employment leads to people having more money.

More money spending means the economy starts to grow and the economy gets out of the crisis.

更多的貨幣支出意味著經濟開始增長，經濟走出危機。

However, one man's debt is another man's asset.

然而，一個人的債務就是另一個人的資產。

That is a very beautiful quote by Ray Dalio.

雷-達里奧（Ray Dalio）的這句話說得非常好。

When I'm loaning money to you, for example, to buy a house, you take my money and you go and get yourself a house.

比如說，我借錢給你買房子，你拿著我的錢自己去買房子。

For the next 30 years, you have to pay me interest every single year because you borrowed that money from me.

在接下來的 30 年裡，你每年都要向我支付利息，因為那是你向我借的錢。

It's a debt for you, but it's an asset for me because based on that money, I will be receiving money from you since you have taken that money from me and the interest.

這對你來說是一筆債務，但對我來說是一筆資產，因為基於這筆錢，我將從你那裡收到錢，因為你從我這裡拿走了這筆錢和利息。

So 2008 financial crisis happens and the government does what it always does.

2008 年金融危機爆發後，政府採取了一貫的做法。

It lowers down interest rates and it sees like it's not helping to grow the economy.

它降低了利率，卻似乎無助於經濟增長。

It's not helping to help the economy to get out of the recession, especially when the United States is looking at the rest of the world, countries like China that are growing tremendously.

這無助於幫助經濟走出衰退，尤其是當美國將目光投向世界其他國家，像中國這樣正在取得巨大增長的國家時。

So they feel this urge to act immediately and save the economy as fast as possible before it turns into another Great Depression of 1929.

是以，他們迫切希望立即行動起來，在經濟陷入 1929 年的大蕭條之前，儘快拯救經濟。

The government starts borrowing money and spending money in order to help the economy and it doesn't help either.

政府開始借錢和花錢來幫助經濟，但也無濟於事。

於是，政府做出了不可思議的舉動。

On one side, you have the government of the United States and it wants to borrow money from investors.

一邊是美國政府，它想從投資者那裡借錢。

People on the other side who have a lot of extra money, these are the rich people, they want to make a return on their money.

另一方面，那些擁有大量額外資金的人，也就是富人，他們希望從自己的錢中獲得回報。

The government issues a piece of paper called the government bond and this piece of paper is literally the debt.

政府發行一種名為政府債券的紙張，這種紙張就是債務。

The investor buys it, the money goes into the pockets of the government.

投資者買了，錢就進了政府的腰包。

If it's a two-year government bond with 5% interest rate, the government will pay the investor 5% on that $1,000 and two years from now, will return that money back to the investor, the exact same $1,000.

如果是利率為 5%的兩年期政府債券，政府將以 5%的利率向投資者支付 1000 美元，兩年後，政府將把這筆錢還給投資者，還是那 1000 美元。

Now the question is that, who determines at what interest rate the government will borrow that money?

現在的問題是，誰來決定政府以何種利率借錢？

The more people would want to buy government bonds of the United States, the lower will be the interest rates.

越多人願意購買美國政府債券，利率就會越低。

The less people would want to loan their money to the government of the United States, the higher the interest rates will be risen by the government of the United States to attract those people to invest in the United States debts.

越少人願意把錢借給美國政府，美國政府為吸引這些人投資美國債務而提高的利率就越高。

But because the US government is the safest investment that you can possibly make, investors always demand an interest rate that is slightly higher than inflation.

但是，由於美國政府是最安全的投資，投資者總是要求利率略高於通貨膨脹率。

You know that lending your money to the government of the US is very safe, but you still want to make a certain rate of return.

你知道把錢借給美國政府是非常安全的，但你仍然希望獲得一定的回報率。

If inflation is 2% and you are making 2% on your money, then you're not making any kind of money or whatsoever.

如果通貨膨脹率是 2%，而你的錢只賺了 2%，那麼你就沒有賺到任何錢或任何東西。

Because even though that you made an extra 2%, the just inflation has risen by 2%, you essentially made no money at all.

因為即使你多賺了 2%，但僅僅是通脹上升了 2%，你基本上就沒賺到什麼錢。

It's much better for you and buy some kind of asset that rises together with interest rates or with inflation, like gold, for example.

對你來說，買一些隨利率或通脹一起上漲的資產會好得多，比如黃金。

Which is why the government always has to provide you with an interest rate that is slightly above inflation, which is 1% or 2% higher than inflation.

這就是為什麼政府總是要為你提供略高於通脹率的利率，也就是比通脹率高 1%或 2%。

So if inflation is 4%, you expect from the government 6%.

是以，如果通脹率是 4%，你就期望政府提供 6%。

If inflation is 2%, you expect from the government 4%.

如果通脹率是 2%，你希望政府提供 4%。

If inflation is 10%, then probably you expect much more than that.

如果通脹率是 10%，那麼你的期望可能遠遠高於這個數字。

So 2008 financial crisis happens and the United States government is trying to borrow money from investors in order to stimulate the economy for growth.

2008 年金融危機爆發，美國政府試圖向投資者借錢，以刺激經濟增長。

And all the money that the government over here tried to raise from investors did not help to fix the problem and get the economy out of the recession.

這裡的政府試圖從投資者那裡籌集的所有資金都無助於解決問題，也無助於經濟走出衰退。

So what do you think the government does?

The government turns into the Federal Reserve in order to come up with a new terminology and a new method to save the economy.

政府變成了美聯儲，以便提出新的術語和新的方法來拯救經濟。

Quantitative easing is the ability of the Fed to print money and directly buy government bonds in the open market.

量化寬鬆政策是指美聯儲能夠印製鈔票，直接在公開市場上購買政府債券。

So if these investors are not willing to buy these government bonds, then the chairman of the Fed or the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying these government bonds.

是以，如果這些投資者不願意購買這些政府債券，那麼美聯儲主席或美聯儲就會印鈔票購買這些政府債券。

And the government of the United States will be left with all of those trillions of dollars in their pockets to invest it back into the economy to stimulate the economy to grow.

而美國政府將把這數萬億美元全部收入囊中，重新投入經濟，刺激經濟增長。

But let's get back to the question, who determines the rates on these government bonds?

但讓我們回到問題上來，誰來決定這些政府債券的利率？

字幕列表影片播放

美國經濟出現嚴重問題 (Something is going deeply wrong inside US economy)

massive

depression

slightly

exaggerate