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  • What’s better?

    哪個比較好?

  • knowing the price of something or knowing with perfect information how much something should cost?

    知道某物的價格,還是有完整的資訊來了解其成本應該要是多少?

  • It’s a trick question.

    這是個陷阱題。

  • Suppose there are two farmers, Al Trewis and Moe Cashferme.

    假設有兩個農夫——Al Trewis 和 Moe Cashferme。

  • Each of them has 500 acres of land that could grow either corn or soybeans.

    他們各擁有 500 畝地,可種植玉米或大豆。

  • Suppose I ask what their plans are.

    假設我問他們種植計畫為何。

  • Both of them text back, "I don’t know."

    兩人都回:「我不知道」。

  • Now suppose we borrowed a crystal ball from some genie, and we know everything.

    現在,假設我們跟精靈借了水晶球,所以我們無所不知。

  • Among the things the crystal ball can tell us are that Brazil has had a terrible summer

    水晶球能告訴我的其中一件事是,巴西剛經歷了淒慘的夏天,

  • with drought, and then late floods that wiped out 40% of their soybean crop.

    發生了乾旱以及晚夏的水災,摧毀其百分之 40 的大豆作物。

  • It also tells us that new uses for soybean curd have pushed up consumer demand for soy paste all over Asia.

    神燈也告訴我們,豆腐的新用法提升了亞洲各地消費者的豆醬需求。

  • Meanwhile, corn crop yields have hit record highs all over the world,

    同時,玉米產量在世界各地都創下新高。

  • and at the same time, several countries ended their corn-based ethanol programs,

    在此同時,許多國家終止了用玉米製造乙醇的計畫,

  • leading to an extraordinary corn surplus.

    造成大量玉米過剩。

  • Our first farmer, Al, has to decide what to plant.

    第一位農夫 Al 必須決定要種植什麼。

  • Al never wanted anything for himself.

    Al 從不為自己著想,

  • All he cares about was doing what was best for all of humanity.

    他唯一關心的是做什麼對人類群體最有利。

  • He does research trying to decide which crop will be better for humanity as a whole,

    他做了些研究來決定哪種作物整體來說對人類最好,

  • but it’s hard for Al to determine what information is most relevant

    但對 Al 來說,判定哪些資訊相關很困難,

  • 'cause he doesn’t trust price information,

    因為他不信任價格資訊。

  • and the knowledge that he needs is too dispersed, too specific, and too hard to learn.

    而他需要的知識又過於分散、太特定,還很難學習。

  • Now, Al knows a lot, but still not enough.

    現在,即使 Al 懂了很多,仍舊不夠。

  • He’s stuck at "I don’t know."

    他陷入不知所措的泥淖,

  • So he makes a guess, plants corn.

    於是他隨便選了一個,那便是種玉米。

  • Al's put a tremendous amount of time and resources into his research

    Al 花了大量時間和資源在研究上,

  • instead of focusing on what he’s good at, running a farm.

    而非專注於他所擅長的——經營農場。

  • As a result, he doesn’t get much corn planted, has a hard time selling the corn he does produce.

    結果,他沒種出多少玉米,在玉米銷售上也困頓不堪。

  • He has to sell for very little, and he ends up bankrupt.

    他必須低價拋售,最終宣告破產。

  • Let’s look at Moe’s experience.

    接下來,我們來看看 Moe 的狀況。

  • Since he cares only about profits, he focuses on prices.

    由於他只關心獲利,他只專注於價格。

  • In early February, the price of corn futures falls sharply,

    在二月初,玉米期貨的價格驟降,

  • but soy futures indicate that prices for soy delivered in August should be excellent.

    但大豆期貨顯示,八月交割的大豆價格應該很樂觀。

  • Why did this happen?

    為何如此?

  • Moe has no idea, and he couldn’t possibly care less.

    Moe 毫無頭緒,也毫不在乎。

  • Moe sells a large soy futures contract to lock in the high price

    Moe 賣出許多大豆期貨以鎖住高價,

  • and plants soy on every square inch of land that he owns.

    且他在擁有的每吋土地上都種植了大豆。

  • It’s a selfish bet, one thatll make Moe a lot of money.

    這是個自私的賭注,可讓 Moe 賺取大把鈔票。

  • Instead of trying to be an expert in all the disparate subjects he’d need to master to have perfect information about the marketplace,

    他沒有為了取得市場全面資訊,而去嘗試精通所有領域,

  • he just focused time and resources on running his farm,

    而是將時間和資源投入在經營自己的農場,

  • and the only other information he used was prices,

    他唯一會使用到的資訊就是價格,

  • so he produced a lot of soybeans and did well for himself.

    所以他生產大量大豆,並為自己謀得好處。

  • Which of the two did the right thing, the better thing for society?

    這兩人誰做對了?誰又對社會較有貢獻呢?

  • What would the genie with the crystal ball have told us?

    水晶球精靈會給我們什麼答案?

  • The genie would have looked at the glut of corn and the shortage of soy that made it so valuable,

    精靈應該會看看玉米過剩情況及造成大豆價值不斐的短缺問題,

  • and told us what people need is more soy.

    然後告訴我們,人們比較需要大豆。

  • But of course, there’s no such thing as genies in the real world.

    但當然,現實世界裡沒有精靈。

  • Information is too dispersed, too complicated to solve the "IDK" problem through research.

    資訊過於分散、太複雜,以致於無法經由研究來解決「我不知道」這個問題。

  • There’s just too much to know.

    有太多資訊得知道了!

  • Fortunately, farmers don’t need a crystal ball because prices do exactly what we were hoping that the genie would do.

    幸好,農夫不需要水晶球,因為價格恰好會做我們希望精靈能做的事。

  • Farmers don’t need to know why a price is high or low,

    農夫不需要知道為什麼價格高或低,

  • and in fact, no single person could possibly explain it fully,

    事實上,沒人能完整解釋其原因。

  • but by growing the crop that produces the greater profit,

    但透過種植利潤較高的作物,

  • farmers can produce the crop that solves the shortage, meets the demand, and satisfies the requirements of innovation.

    農夫能生產可解決短缺、符合需求,又能滿足創新需要的作物。

  • It’s impossible to attain perfect information about the entire marketplace, which is changing all the time.

    我們不可能取得全市場的完整資訊,資訊隨時都在變。

  • Prices are a way of condensing all that information into one easily understood signal, almost like magic.

    價格能將所有資訊濃縮成一個讓人一看就懂的信號,就像魔法一樣。

  • Keep Learning Liberty, click on one of our other videos to watch more.

    請繼續使用 Learning Liberty,點擊其他影片觀看。

  • If you wanna do more than watch videos, click on the link for student opportunities and more resources.

    如果不只是想看影片,也可以點擊連結獲取學習機會和更多資源。

What’s better?

哪個比較好?

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