Name: 約翰-米爾斯海默教授：跳出宣傳審視以色列-哈馬斯衝突 (Professor John Mearsheimer: Examining the Israel-Hamas Clash Beyond the Propaganda)
Uploaded: 2024-06-14T03:23:42.000Z
Duration: 3 min 31 s

情態副詞

I would submit that Israel has lost the PR war catastrophically.

我認為，以色列在這場公關戰中輸得很慘。

程度副詞

You tell me if they've even made a dent in Hamas.

你告訴我，他們在哈馬斯是否有所斬獲？

轉承詞

Well, it's very hard to say exactly how much damage they've done to Hamas, because there's just not much information.

很難說他們給哈馬斯造成了多大的損失，因為沒有太多的資訊。

The Israelis control who gets into Gaza, who gets out, what they see.

以色列人控制著誰能進入加沙，誰能離開，他們能看到什麼。

And therefore, there's not a lot of hard facts in the media.

是以，媒體上沒有太多確鑿的事實。

And that includes the Israeli press as well.

My sense is that they're not doing very well at all.

我的感覺是，他們做得一點也不好。

First of all, the Israelis only control about 40% of Gaza.

首先，以色列人只控制了加沙約 40% 的地區。

That means the other 60% is territory where Hamas can go and the Israelis can't get at them.

這意味著另外 60% 的領土是哈馬斯可以去而以色列人無法攻擊的地方。

Second, the Israelis have not captured any hostages.

第二，以色列人沒有抓獲任何人質。

If they haven't captured any hostages, that probably tells you a lot about their ability to find the Hamas fighters.

如果他們沒有抓獲任何人質，那就說明他們有能力找到哈馬斯戰士。

Furthermore, if you look at the number of people that the Israelis have killed, the number is about 20,000, as you said before.

此外，如果你看看以色列人殺害的人數，正如你之前所說，大約有 2 萬人。

And most people agree that about 70% of that 20,000 is women and children.

大多數人都認為，在這 2 萬人中，約 70% 是婦女和兒童。

That means that the Israelis have killed 6,000 males.

這意味著以色列人殺害了 6 000 名男性。

Now, those 6,000 males were certainly not all Hamas fighters.

現在，這 6 000 名男性肯定不全是哈馬斯戰士。

Most of them, I'm sure, were innocent civilians.

我敢肯定，他們中的大多數人都是無辜的平民。

So let's say of the 6,000, 4,000 were civilians and 2,000 were Hamas fighters.

是以，我們假設 6000 人中有 4000 名平民和 2000 名哈馬斯戰士。

I don't think that's the likely number, but let's give the Israelis the benefit of the doubt.

我不認為這是個可能的數字，但我們還是要給以色列人一點好處。

That says that they've killed 2,000 Hamas fighters.

上面說他們已經殺死了 2000 名哈馬斯戰士。

Well, most people argue that Hamas had 30,000 to 40,000 fighters to start with.

大多數人認為，哈馬斯一開始有 3 萬到 4 萬名戰士。

If they had 30,000 to 40,000 fighters and they've killed 2,000, that means they have a whole heck of a lot of fighters left.

如果他們有 3 萬到 4 萬名戰士，而他們已經殺死了 2000 人，這意味著他們還剩下一大批戰士。

Finally, you just don't see any evidence of the Israelis capturing Hamas fighters and then taking pictures of them or videos of them or parading them around.

最後，你看不到任何證據表明以色列人抓獲了哈馬斯戰士，然後給他們拍照、錄像或遊街示眾。

The people that they're parading around, the males that they're parading around and humiliating are in almost all cases civilians who they have captured and are interrogating.

他們遊街示眾的人，他們遊街示眾並羞辱的男性，幾乎在所有情況下都是他們抓獲並正在審訊的平民。

So I just don't see a lot of evidence that the Israelis, the IDF, is winning this war against Hamas.

是以，我看不出有什麼證據能證明以色列人、以色列國防軍在這場對哈馬斯的戰爭中獲勝。

I think it's going to have to go on for a long time if there's any hope of ultimately decisively defeating Hamas.

我認為，如果有希望最終決定性地擊敗哈馬斯，這種情況就必須持續很長時間。

Given the accuracy of what you say about the Israelis controlling information, what's the other side of that coin?

既然你所說的以色列人控制資訊的說法是準確的，那麼這枚硬幣的另一面又是什麼呢？

How many Israeli soldiers have been killed or captured?

有多少以色列阿兵哥被殺或被俘？

If you go on Telegram and you look at what the pictures and the videos that Hamas is releasing, it looks like they're doing a lot of damage to the Israelis, that they're putting up a real fight.

如果你在 Telegram 上查看哈馬斯發佈的圖片和視頻，就會發現他們似乎對以色列人造成了很大的傷害，他們正在進行一場真正的戰鬥。

 It's hard to tell exactly what's going on.

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約翰-米爾斯海默教授：跳出宣傳審視以色列-哈馬斯衝突 (Professor John Mearsheimer: Examining the Israel-Hamas Clash Beyond the Propaganda)

ultimately

evidence

tricky

sense