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  • When billionaire Elon Musk bought Twitter,

    當億萬富翁伊隆・馬斯克買下推特時,

  • some Tesla investors worried Musk was abandoning the electric vehicle maker to focus on the social media company.

    有些特斯拉投資者擔心馬斯克會拋棄此電動車製造商,專注於該社交媒體公司。

  • So, in Twitter...

    所以,在推特公司⋯⋯

  • What could possibly go wrong?

    能出什麼差錯呢?

  • Since the deals closed in late October, Tesla shares have slipped, ending the year down 65%, the company's worst year on record.

    在交易於 10 月底完成時,特斯拉的股價便下跌,全年以 65% 的下跌數字收尾,這也是該公司史上表現最糟的一年。

  • But the reason for the sell-off goes far beyond Twitter.

    但該公司拋售的原因不只有推特。

  • Here's what drove Tesla investors away in 2022 and what's affecting the car maker going into 2023.

    以下是 2022 年使得特斯拉投資者退卻的原因,以及邁入 2023 年影響該製車商的因素。

  • Let's start with demand.

    我們從需求開始講。

  • For years, Tesla has stood out as the leader in the electric vehicle space.

    多年來,特斯拉在電動汽車產業以龍頭脫穎而出。

  • And while its dominance continued in the third quarter of 2022, its market share slipped to 61%.

    雖然其領先地位持續至 2022 年第三季,其市佔率下滑至 61%。

  • In the last year, we've seen an explosion of competing EV models for Tesla,

    在過去一年,我們看到大量特斯拉的競爭電動車型問世,

  • and as that number continues to grow over the years,

    而隨著那個數字在這些年間持續成長,

  • the concern is whether or not demand for Tesla vehicles will continue to stay as high as it has been in the past.

    顧慮點在於特斯拉汽車的需求量會跟過去一樣居高不下。

  • According to JD Power, there were 33 EV models available in the US at the end of 2021,

    根據 JD Power 所說,截至 2021 年底,美國共有 33 種電動汽車車型,

  • but by the end of 2022, that number had jumped to 53 models.

    但到了 2022 年末,那個數字躍升至 53 種車型。

  • Tesla still held four of the top five selling EVs last year, according to S&P Global Mobility.

    根據 S&P Global Mobility 統計指出,特斯拉在去年前五暢銷電動汽車中,仍佔據了四個位置。

  • But the sell-off in Tesla shares reflects investors' fear that its hold won't last as newer models arrive.

    但是特斯拉股價的拋售反映出投資者的恐懼,此排名在新車型出現後,不會持續。

  • Tesla has sold the same, sort of, handful of models for years now,

    特斯拉販售同樣幾種模型已經好幾年了,

  • and the question is: Will Tesla continue to be as competitive as it has in the past or will they become outdated?

    問題是:特斯拉會繼續像過往一樣有競爭力,還是它們會變得過時?

  • Further fueling concerns are customer wait times for Tesla cars, which dropped sharply over 2022.

    其它加劇的顧慮是顧客等待特斯拉車輛的時間,在 2022 年間大幅地下跌。

  • Some investors see this as a sign demand is already softening.

    有些投資者將這個視為需求降低的徵兆。

  • Musk addressed these concerns on Tesla's third-quarter earnings call.

    馬斯克在特斯拉第三季的財報電話會議中回應了這些擔憂。

  • I can't emphasize enoughwe have excellent demand for Q4,

    我必須鄭重地強調,我們第四季需求量極高,

  • and we expect to sell every car that we make for as far into the future as we can see.

    而在可預見的未來,我們預期會賣出我們所生產的每一輛車。

  • And in December, the CEO said on that Twitter Spaces call that near-term demand pressures were driven by rising interest rate policies.

    在 12 月時,該執行長於 Twitter Spaces 會議中表示,臨期需求壓力是由上升的利率政策所驅動。

  • Production disruptions also contributed to the stock slide last year, leading to Tesla missing its full-year vehicle delivery target.

    生產動盪也導致了去年的股價下滑,使得特斯拉無法達成其全年交車目標。

  • The EV makers said it delivered 1.3 million vehicles in 2022, up 40% from 2021.

    該電動車製車商表示,它於 2022 年成交了 130 萬部車,較 2021 年成長 40%。

  • That was shy of its goal of increasing deliveries by 50% or more.

    那比它交車率提升目標少了至少 50%。

  • It would've needed more than 1.4 million to hit that target.

    它必須要超越 140 萬輛才能達成設定目標。

  • News of the shortfall pushed stocks down another 12% to start the new year, its largest single-day decline in more than two years.

    交車量不足的消息也在新年一開始便將股價下推 12%,是至少兩年期間最高的單日下跌量。

  • Intermittent factory closures at Tesla's China plant, its largest by volume, were one part of the problem.

    產量最大的特斯拉中國廠間歇性關閉也是問題之一。

  • China's zero-COVID policy led to a number of shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai, which obviously created supply issues of its own.

    中國的新冠清零政策導致其上海工廠的幾起閉廠事件,很顯然地帶來了自身的供應問題。

  • Tesla also faced issues at new factories in Texas and Germany, where it struggled to ramp up production.

    特斯拉在德州和德國的新工廠也面臨問題,掙扎著提升產量。

  • Musk addressed those problems in a May interview.

    馬斯克在 5 月一場訪談中回應了這些問題。

  • Both Berlin and Austin factories are gigantic money furnaces right now.

    柏林和奧斯丁工廠目前都是巨大的金錢熔爐。

  • Rising supplier and logistics costs, combined with soaring inflation, contributed to these production setbacks.

    提升的供應商和物流成本加上通膨率上漲都促使了這些產量挫敗。

  • Tesla and every manufacturer making EVs today is confronting rapidly rising costs,

    特斯拉以及今日所有的電動汽車製造商都面臨了快速提升的成本,

  • from the raw materials that go into the batteries to construction-related costs or, frankly, even labor-related costs.

    從電池原物料到建構相關成本,甚至人力相關成本。

  • All of that is going up, and the car industry is not one with huge profit margins.

    那所有的費用都在上漲,而汽車產業並未不會有太大利率。

  • For Tesla, this included spending roughly 11 billion dollars in the first quarter on items needed to make and sell cars.

    對特斯拉來說,這包括於第一季花費約 110 億美元以購買所有需要製造並販售車輛的物件。

  • Overwhelmingly, our concern is, how do we keep the factories operating so we can pay people and not go bankrupt?

    我們很大的一個擔憂是,我們該如何讓工廠繼續運作以確保可以支付薪水且不破產?

  • Overvaluation is another factor some investors and analysts say is complicating Tesla's shrinking stock price.

    一些投資者與分析家認為,「高估」也是影響特斯拉股價下跌的另一因素。

  • Tesla has been egregiously overvalued for the last couple years based on hype.

    特斯拉基於風潮而在過去幾年間被誇張地高估。

  • At its peak, Tesla was worth more than the 10 largest automakers on the planet combined, despite having just a fraction of their sales.

    在巔峰期,特斯拉的價值比全球十大製車商的價值還高,儘管其銷量只是它們的一小部分。

  • A lot of investors who have debated whether or not Tesla is an overvalued company

    許多爭論特斯拉是否為一個被高估公司的投資者,

  • have done so based on the fact that it owned a huge percentage of the US EV market and that it was the first mover in that market.

    其想法是基於該公司的美國電動車市佔率極高,並且是該市場第一推動者。

  • Its valuation was driven, in part, by its CEO.

    它的價值有部分是其執行長所堆動。

  • And some investors say Musk's promises about future vehicles have pushed shares higher, though many of the cars didn't come until years later.

    有些投資者則表示,馬斯克對於未來車輛的承諾將股價推得更高,雖然許多車輛是在多年後才問世。

  • The latest example?

    最新的案例?

  • Tesla's Cybertruck, which was first unveiled three years ago and still hasn't hit the market.

    特斯拉的 Cybertruck,在三年前首次亮相,至今仍未上市。

  • Cybertruck is gonna be awesome.

    Cybertruck 會很棒的。

  • It's worth the wait; believe me.

    它值得你等待,相信我。

  • And, more directly, Musk's move to offload billions in Tesla stock, in part related to Twitter, has pushed down Tesla's share price.

    更直接的是馬斯克決定轉移數十億的特斯拉股票(部分與推特有關)也拉垮了特斯拉的股價。

  • Anytime anybody sells 40 billion dollars' worth of company's stock is gonna bring that stock price down.

    不論何時,只要有人出售一間公司價值 4 百億的股票,都會讓股價下跌。

  • What isn't clear is how that specific action is influencing other investors.

    不明朗的是,該特定行動如何影響著其他的投資者。

  • Tesla did not respond to request for comment.

    特斯拉並未回應評論請求。

  • Tesla's stock sell-off comes as investors across the market prepare for what some see as an oncoming recession.

    特斯拉的股票拋售發生在市場上投資者準備迎接一些人視為即將來臨的衰退之際。

  • A downturn could slow car-buying, especially for pricier vehicles.

    情勢下轉可能減緩購車速度,尤其是較昂貴的車輛。

  • Will those people who might otherwise, in 2022 or 2021, purchase a 60,000-dollar vehicle,

    那些在其它狀況下可能會在 2022 年或 2021 年購買 6 萬美元車輛的人,

  • will they, instead, purchase a 40,000-dollar, gas-powered vehicle?

    他們會改而購買 4 萬美元、汽油車輛嗎?

  • On Tesla's third-quarter earnings call, Musk said that he sees the EV company as recession-resilient.

    在特斯拉的第三季電話財務會議中,馬斯克說他認為該電動車公司可抵抗經濟衰退。

  • Let's say 2023 is a brutal recession year.

    我們假設 2023 年是嚴重經濟蕭條的一年。

  • Even then, we generate meaningful cash.

    即便如此,我們還是會產出有意義的金錢。

  • Tesla investors are now waiting for later this month, when the car maker will report its full-year earnings,

    特斯拉投資者目前都在等待本月稍晚該車商報告其全年收益,

  • which could give a glimpse of the stock's prospects for the coming year.

    這可能讓他們窺見該公司來年的股市前景。

When billionaire Elon Musk bought Twitter,

當億萬富翁伊隆・馬斯克買下推特時,

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