-A little more than 200 years ago,

-200多年前。

the world experienced something that's on the edge,

世界經歷了一些處於邊緣的東西。

I would say, of an existential threat

我想說的是，存在的威脅

and that was the explosion of the volcano Tambora.

那就是坦博拉火山的爆炸。

It exploded in 1815 and it was horrible.

它在1815年爆炸了，非常可怕。

The year after that was called the year without a summer

此後的一年被稱為沒有夏天的一年

in Europe and much of America.

在歐洲和美國大部分地區。

It reduced global temperatures

它降低了全球溫度

and that led to global levels of starvation.

而這導致了全球範圍內的飢餓程度。

Tambora is one of the reasons why we see

坦博拉是我們看到的原因之一

supervolcanoes as the single,

監督火山為單。

biggest natural threat to the future of the human race.

對人類未來最大的自然威脅。

The astrophysicist, Neil deGrasse Tyson once said

天體物理學家Neil deGrasse Tyson曾經說過

that, "The universe wants to kill you,"

"宇宙想要殺死你"。

but the great thing is that we are not just dinosaurs

但最重要的是，我們不只是恐龍。

sort of wandering around the planet.

有點像在地球上游蕩。

We have the scientific means to comprehend the risks

我們有科學手段來理解風險

we face, and we actually have the ability to fight back.

我們面臨的問題，而我們實際上有能力進行反擊。

(loud rumbling)

(巨大的隆隆聲)

I'm Bryan Walsh, the author of

我是布賴恩-沃爾什，是 "中國的未來 "一書的作者。

"End Times: A Brief Guide to the End of the World".

"末世。世界末日簡要指南》。

An existential risk is a global threat so great

存在的風險是一種巨大的全球威脅

that it could either cause human beings

它可能會導致人類

to become extinct or reduce the human population

滅亡或減少人口

so much that there would really be no

如此之多，以至於真的沒有

human future that we know.

我們知道的人類未來。

The true horror of an existential threat

存在威脅的真正可怕之處

is not my death, it's not your death,

不是我的死亡，也不是你的死亡。

the death of all 7.7 billion people

所有77億人的死亡

who exist now.

現在存在的人。

It's the nullification of the future.

這是對未來的否定。

The future matters to us more than we can really understand.

未來對我們的重要性超過了我們能夠真正理解的程度。

Humans are really terrible at evaluating these kinds

人類在評估這類問題時真的很糟糕。

of existential risks, in part because of their rarity.

的生存風險，部分原因是它們的稀有性。

We may be afraid of terrorism or mass shootings.

我們可能害怕恐怖主義或大規模槍擊事件。

Even though those events are actually

儘管這些事件實際上是

on a day by day base, very unlikely.

在一天一天的基礎上，非常不可能。

Because they pop out at us, we tend to overstate

因為它們突然出現在我們面前，我們往往會誇大其詞

the danger they pose to us.

他們對我們構成的危險。

Now, the reverse of that is often we see with existential

現在，與此相反的是，我們經常看到存在主義的

risks where, because they have never happened,

風險在哪裡，因為它們從來沒有發生過。

we tend to assume they must not be possible,

我們傾向於認為它們一定是不可能的。

that's a mistake.

這是個錯誤。

Five times over the course of the planet's history,

在這個星球的歷史上，有五次。

we've seen what are called major extinction events.

我們已經看到了所謂的大滅絕事件。

That's where you see something big happen

這就是你看到大事情發生的地方

that might knock out three-quarters of the life

這可能會使四分之三的人失去生命

on this planet.

在這個星球上。

Obviously, the one people are most familiar with is

很明顯，人們最熟悉的是

that asteroid that collided with the Earth 66 million

那顆與地球相撞的小行星6600萬

years ago that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

多年前，導致了恐龍的滅絕。

But four out of the five mass extinction events,

但五次大規模滅絕事件中的四次。

we believe really have some kind of volcanic cause.

我們相信真的有某種火山的原因。

Existential risk experts really believe that Toba,

存在的風險專家真的相信託巴。

was the closest human beings have ever come

是人類有史以來最接近的一次

to extinction.

到滅亡。

This was an actual supervolcano that exploded

這是一座真正的火山爆發的超級火山

about 74 to 75,000 years ago.

大約在74至75000年前。

That's a long time ago, but there were human beings

那是很久以前的事了，但當時有人類

around.

左右。

It was an 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index,

它的火山爆炸指數為8。

which is 1 out of 8.

這是8箇中的1個。

It's kind of a Richter scale for volcanoes.

這有點像火山的里氏規模。

You might remember something like Mount St. Helen's,

你可能記得像聖海倫山這樣的東西。

where that was so terrible it was actually

那是如此可怕的地方，實際上是

on the cover of Time magazine.

在《時代》雜誌的封面上。

That was about 1% as strong as Toba was.

這大約是託巴的1%的強度。

By some climate models, it would have reduced global

根據一些氣候模型，它將減少全球

temperatures by 15 degrees fahrenheit or as much as 30.

溫度下降15華氏度或高達30華氏度。

The aftermath of big, supervolcanoes like Toba would be

像託巴這樣的大型監督火山的後果將是

cold, dark and very hungry.

寒冷、黑暗和非常飢餓。

When they blow, they blow all that debris,

當它們被吹動時，它們會吹動所有的碎石。

including a lot of sulfur into the atmosphere.

包括大量的硫磺進入大氣。

It can actually reduce the amount of sunlight that can

實際上，它可以減少可用於以下用途的陽光數量

come into the planet.

來到這個星球上。

Volcanic ash is made up of little, almost hook like

火山灰是由小小的、幾乎像鉤子一樣的東西組成的。

rocks that will, actually, tear human tissue.

岩石，實際上，會撕裂人體組織。

It also can contaminate crops, it can contaminate

它也可以汙染農作物，它可以汙染

water supplies.

水供應。

It's very dense and can actually cave in roofs.

它非常密集，實際上可以使屋頂塌陷。

We still find deposits of ash from the Toba

我們仍然發現來自託巴島的火山灰沉積物。

super eruption, thousands of miles away

千里之外的超級火山爆發

from the volcano.

從火山裡出來。

You can see it in India, you can see it in parts

你可以在印度看到它，你可以在部分地區看到它

of Africa.

非洲的。

You can actually trace it back to Toba.

實際上，你可以追溯到託巴。

By some estimates, it may have reduced human population

根據一些估計，它可能已經減少了人類的人口

to as little as 4,000 people.

以至於只有4000人。

That shows how unbelievably powerful,

這顯示出多麼令人難以置信的力量。

how unbelievably dangerous how existential a supervolcano

多麼令人難以置信的危險，多麼具有存在感的一座超級火山。

of that kind of scale can be.

的那種規模可以是。

And, guess what?

而且，你猜怎麼著？

That can happen again.

這可能會再次發生。

For instance, the famous Yellowstone Park.

例如，著名的黃石公園。

All those geysers you see are an effect of an incredibly

你所看到的所有這些間歇泉都是由一個令人難以置信的

powerful underground volcanic system

強大的地下火山系統

that one day could become strong enough

有一天可以變得足夠強大

to actually create something on the scale

實際創造一些規模的東西

of a super eruption that would bring a halt

的超級噴發，將帶來停止

really to human life as we know it.

真正對我們所知的人類生活。

Awareness is really our best weapon against

意識確實是我們對抗的最好武器

supervolcanoes.

監督火山。

We can't stop them but what we can do is try to organize

我們無法阻止他們，但我們能做的是努力組織起來

society in a way that will actually be able

社會的方式，將真正能夠

to endure that kind of event.

忍受這樣的事件。

That means thinking through and preparing

這意味著要考慮清楚並準備好

for what's going to happen afterwards, for day two.

為之後要發生的事情，為第二天的事情。

We could put food in a reserve.

我們可以把食物放在儲備中。

We could actually begin to research methods

我們實際上可以開始研究方法

of food production that don't depend on the sun.

不依賴太陽的糧食生產。

We could create something like a global monitoring

我們可以創建一個類似於全球監測的東西

system so we have a much better sense

系統，所以我們有一個更好的感覺

as to when the might explode.

至於什麼時候可能爆炸。

Ultimately, what we're doing here is trying

歸根結底，我們在這裡所做的是試圖

to preserve the future.

以保護未來。

And we can do that but only if we take this seriously.

我們可以做到這一點，但只有當我們認真對待這個問題。

We really have no excuse.

我們真的沒有任何藉口。

If we go extinct now, almost certainly it's because

如果我們現在滅絕了，幾乎可以肯定是因為

we did not try hard enough to keep ourselves safe.

我們沒有足夠努力來保證自己的安全。

- [Director] If you liked this video with Bryan Walsh,

- [導演]如果你喜歡這個與Bryan Walsh的視頻。

check out Freethink's new series

查看Freethink的新系列

where we meet the scientists

我們與科學家見面的地方

and explore the science

並探索科學

that's gonna prevent global catastrophe.

這將防止全球災難的發生。