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  • China's appetite for energy is enormous.

  • The country consumes about a quarter

  • of the world's energy supply,

  • 35% more than the U.S. annually.

  • Its energy needs have more than tripled since the year 2000.

  • That consumption has helped to fuel astonishing growth,

  • but it's come at a cost.

  • China is the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter.

  • There is no way to tackle climate change

  • unless China reduces its emissions to net zero.

  • The country's reliance on fossil fuels is also a hindrance

  • to its own growth and the wellbeing of its citizens.

  • China is not energy secure.

  • It has a massive import bill for things like oil and gas.

  • It has a longstanding pollution problem,

  • and it is also prone to outages

  • that severely hamper industry.

  • All this has led the world's biggest polluter

  • to take steps towards a radical transformation.

  • President Xi Jinping outlined his plans

  • to make China carbon neutral by 2060.

  • COVID 19 reminds us that humankind

  • should launch green revolution

  • and move faster to create a green way of development.

  • China's high level goals are that within this decade

  • it's going to peak its carbon emissions.

  • And then it's going to go to net zero by 2060.

  • So that gives it approximately 40 years

  • to do something that no country has achieved,

  • let alone something like the size of China.

  • As the world starts to turn away from fossil fuels,

  • China is positioning itself as the king of clean energy,

  • not only transforming its own energy system

  • but also building a supply chain that could leave the world

  • uncomfortably dependent on China for its energy needs.

  • China has really expanded its grip.

  • So it's the processing, it's the manufacturing,

  • it's all the way down to your EVs and your battery packs.

  • How the West deals with that,

  • they're going to have to be a bit creative.

  • What China plans to accomplish

  • by 2030 could determine the shape

  • of the global energy system of the future.

  • At the end of the last century, China was on the cusp

  • of an economic revolution.

  • In 1990, its GDP was only 6% that of the US,

  • and its energy use was only 34%.

  • But the economic reforms of the '80s and '90s

  • started the process of privatizing industry,

  • and opening up to trade with the rest of the world.

  • By the time it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001

  • China was well on its way to becoming the world's factory

  • with booming energy needs to match.

  • The history of it is really dramatic.

  • I think just the condensation,

  • really China is doing industrial revolution

  • a hundred years after that,

  • all of that in a very concentrated period of time.

  • So what we saw is obviously dramatic change in terms

  • of energy consumption, and there were power crunches

  • in the early years, really the system was still

  • trying to cope. Dramatic addition of coal fired plants

  • in particular to deal with that.

  • From a climate perspective, the position was,

  • well, you had your turn, now it's our turn.

  • When you were growing, you as the West,

  • there was no question of what carbon was doing.

  • You did whatever you wanted, now it's our turn.

  • That really changed in 2008, 2009.

  • And that coincides with an awareness of air pollution.

  • In Beijing, which is facing another smoggy day.

  • Some environmentalists say it is the worst air on record.

  • Beijing was famously the most polluted city

  • in the world for almost a decade.

  • It also became very clear to its leadership that

  • that kind of growth will be unsustainable,

  • not just from a fact of putting out lot of emissions,

  • but from a fact that much of the fossil fuel consumption,

  • for example oil and natural gas will have to be imported.

  • And that's something China wanted to walk away from.

  • So starting about 2010, China committed to increase

  • its deployment of renewables.

  • China, like many other places in the world, was faced

  • with initially very non-competitive on a cost basis

  • economics for solar projects, for wind projects

  • and being able to subsidize the manufacture

  • of the key components,

  • ensuring the power that they sell has an attractive rate.

  • All of these things, China has done very, very well.

  • You push the market into existence

  • and then you're able to pull back

  • with some of the policy mandates

  • because now it just makes good economic sense.

  • China's investments in renewables helped drive

  • astonishing price drops across the industry

  • leading to record levels of new wind and solar installations

  • all over the world in recent years.

  • Last year, wind and solar generated more than 10%

  • of the world's electricity.

  • Still renewables only make up a tiny fraction

  • of China's energy mix today.

  • China is overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels

  • at the moment.

  • And within that if you look at power generation,

  • it's overwhelmingly coal, roughly 60%.

  • Wind, biomass, solar remain a much, much smaller fraction.

  • There was pressure building up on China

  • for quite a few years that China needs to do more

  • to cut emissions.

  • And that finally sort of came together in 2015

  • at the Paris Agreement when China agreed to sign it

  • alongside the US and pretty much

  • every country on the planet.

  • That bit of diplomacy was crucial to take China

  • to the next stage, which is when in 2020, it declared

  • that it will set a net zero goal.

  • And in a way it was a coup for China

  • because it set that goal even before

  • the US could have done so.

  • China's decarbonization plan ramps up gradually

  • with fossil fuel emissions increasing

  • for a few years before peaking in 2030.

  • From there they've given themselves another three decades

  • to get to net zero, with 80% of energy

  • coming from carbon free sources by 2060.

  • Getting there will be a massive undertaking,

  • and it starts with renewable megaprojects

  • on a scale seen nowhere else on Earth.

  • So late in 2021, we took a reporting trip to Qinghai

  • in western China.

  • It's quite wind swept.

  • It's a very sunny part of the world.

  • Very low population density.

  • We went to a facility that was spread out

  • over 600 square kilometers, about the size of Singapore.

  • In that facility, they have a hydro dam,

  • they've got a massive solar buildup,

  • and they're adding wind installations as well.

  • When all of that is up and running,

  • it's going to be producing nearly 20 gigawatts of energy.

  • It's enough to cover the power needs

  • at any given time for Israel, for example.

  • By 2030 China plans to up to 1.2 terawatts

  • of wind and solar capacity, enough to meet

  • all of the US' electricity needs today.

  • But it's not enough just to generate that power.

  • Getting the power where it needs to go

  • is a mega project in itself.

  • In order to ship all that electricity,

  • China has basically built this huge network

  • of ultra high voltage power lines.

  • And they're designed to get all of this energy

  • from the west to where it's needed

  • in the population and industrial centers of the east.

  • Power lines might seem like a mundane piece

  • of infrastructure, but they're actually a crucial piece

  • of the decarbonization puzzle.

  • A conventional AC power cable loses a lot of electricity

  • over the course of hundreds of miles.

  • Hence the need for these specialized direct current lines.

  • What they do is they reduce the wastage that may happen

  • on the way to transport this electricity.

  • There are only two countries in the world where

  • these cables are operating, China and Brazil.

  • Brazil has two of those cables, China has 25.

  • By far and away, China is absolutely the leader on this.

  • And the amount of money that you're talking about,

  • I mean, it's hundreds of billions of dollars

  • that they're going to be spending on this in coming decades.

  • As China goes towards a net zero goal,

  • its leadership has recognized that there is no way

  • China can meet those goals

  • without having what's called firm clean power.

  • The idea of firm clean power is that you're able

  • to generate carbon free electricity when you want it,

  • rather than relying on when the sun shines

  • or the wind blows.

  • Nuclear power satisfies those conditions quite well.

  • In most countries, the nuclear industry is struggling,

  • facing huge upfront costs, regulatory hurdles

  • and negative public opinion.

  • Still it is a carbon free source of reliable power,

  • and many environmental advocates see it as a key

  • to the green transition - as does China's leadership.

  • China plans to build 150 new reactors in the next 15 years

  • which is more than what the entire world has built

  • in the last 35 years.

  • Nuclear isn't seen as controversial in China,

  • or at least we don't know if it is.

  • It's not clear whether China's own population

  • supports it or opposes it

  • because they're not allowed to protest

  • and show their opposition to a certain technology.

  • That still leaves the difficult economics of nuclear,

  • the high upfront cost of building new reactors.

  • Here too, China may have unique advantages.

  • One thing that we all know China really excels at doing

  • is building huge infrastructure quickly.

  • After decades of building bridges and skyscrapers,

  • and high speed rail, and ultra high voltage lines,

  • like every super massive industrial project

  • that China has built, that know-how goes into also building

  • nuclear power plants.

  • When you build projects consistently on schedule

  • and on budget, you actually get to realize the benefits

  • that were imagined back when the project was being planned

  • like stable, low cost electricity

  • at a certain rate, at a certain production cost.

  • China's efforts to decarbonize are likely

  • to have many positive effects on its domestic energy supply.

  • But that's not the only reason China has gone all-in

  • on clean energy.

  • China certainly wants to meet a net zero goal,

  • but it also wants to be a country that is making

  • a lot of money exporting the technologies

  • that will clean up the energy system globally.

  • China is incredibly important when we think about

  • the supply chain for green technology in general,

  • the green economy, whether that's solar panels, or turbines,

  • or the elements that you need to process

  • along the way, incredibly significant.

  • China basically accounts for something

  • like 75% of the world's supply chain for solar.

  • Anything that you're going to do in the States or in Europe,

  • I mean, at some point Chinese companies

  • will have been involved in this.

  • That dependence on China has lately been

  • a source of strain.

  • Last year, COVID related production issues in China

  • caused the price of of solar panels to rise

  • for the first time in decades.

  • And some companies have pledged

  • to take their business elsewhere

  • due to reports of human rights abuses

  • in the majority Uyghur province of Xinjiang

  • which produces most of the world's polysilicon,

  • a key material in the manufacturing of solar panels.

  • Obviously there have been accusations in the west

  • that the Uyghurs are subject to forced labor.

  • The industry and the Chinese government have denied this.

  • Some in the west are also concerned

  • about China's dominance over the materials

  • needed to make lithium iron batteries.

  • Cobalt, for example, is a scarce mineral produced mainly

  • in the Democratic Republic of Congo

  • where China has bought up most of the supply.

  • The Congolese government has recently pushed back

  • against those efforts, alleging poor working conditions

  • and unpaid debts by a Chinese mining company.

  • But the majority of cobalt-producing mines there

  • are still at least part Chinese-owned.

  • Crucially what China's done is it's also made

  • the processing of these metals into the chemicals

  • that eventually go into batteries an almost monopoly.

  • The processing capabilities of China

  • outstrip those of all the rest of the world combined.

  • I think any kind of excessive dependency is problematic,

  • and energy dependency is no different.

  • Think about Europe, Europe's dependency on Russia for gas,

  • how problematic that has been.

  • So if we're going to have that the West as dependent

  • on China for renewable energy, for green economy ingredients

  • it is not going to be a healthy situation.

  • My instinct is that these things are not done

  • for a nefarious purpose, right?

  • To dominate the supply chain

  • in a way that is disadvantageous to another country.

  • But, you know, that the primary consideration

  • is what is good for China.

  • I mean, remember we're coming from a period of

  • not so long ago, late '90s, early 2000s

  • when China had rolling blackouts all the time,

  • and we've got all this investment

  • into making sure it can't happen again.

  • From the way people talk about it here,

  • they believe in the mission and the mission is

  • stable, secure energy for the Chinese people.

  • Electricity rationing is being imposed

  • in more than half of China's provinces.

  • Power shortages are still ongoing.

  • I think we've got a count of 20 provinces,

  • where there are electricity curbs.

  • Recently, China has been having flashbacks

  • to the bad old days of blackouts and power rationing.

  • A sudden spike in the price of coal

  • led to widespread power shortages,

  • leaving the government little choice,

  • but to rational electricity and ramp up coal production.

  • It's indicative of a major flaw

  • in China's decarbonization plan:

  • even as they add world historic levels of renewables

  • they largely cancel out those gains

  • with new fossil fuel additions.

  • And so this is the central challenge

  • because as your economy grows,

  • and even as you add all of this renewable capacity,

  • you still need to make sure that the coal supply is flowing

  • in order to keep the lights on.

  • That's going to be the big challenge for policy makers.

  • Even China's world leading investments

  • in carbon-free energy

  • may not get them to their targets on time.

  • But Beijing has recognized that the economic, political

  • and environmental rationales

  • for clean energy now vastly outweigh the costs.

  • When it comes to the 2060 neutrality target,

  • obviously China's a long way off,

  • and it's a huge, huge, audacious target.

  • The people that are the top leaders that are planning it

  • out right now, they probably won't even be around

  • to see it, right.

  • Will they make it?

  • I don't know.

  • It's a huge, huge goal,

  • but they believe they're going to make it.

  • What I can tell you is they're certainly going to try,

  • and they're certainly going to spend a lot

  • of money trying to get there.

China's appetite for energy is enormous.

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How China Plans to Win the Future of Energy

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    モゲ 發佈於 2022 年 05 月 06 日
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