Name: 为啥乌克兰是西方的软肋？John Mearsheimer回答（Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer）
Uploaded: 2022-04-30T06:34:26.000Z
Duration: 1 h 14 min 16 s
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All right am i uh am I on here oh okay great um good afternoon everyone welcome to the

uncommon core lecture uh the causes and consequences of the ukraine crisis my name is michael volchak

i attended the university from 1986 to 1991 i got a bachelor's in political science and

a masters in international relations Professor Mearsheimer was a tremendous influence on

my life um completely revolutionizing my worldview changed how i looked at international relations

politics just everything in fact he was such a big influence on my life that

that when i went home for the summer between one of the school years leaving my college

girlfriend here she gave me a little keepsake picture book and she said here to remember

the people you love and inside was a picture of her on the right and a picture of professor

that's true story um uh when i was here the two biggest things that for me were uh military

affairs and the model united nations of the university of chicago the student organization

that i co-founded in 1988 and at that time i discovered that you need a faculty advisor

in order to have a registered student organization um so of course i thought for about two seconds

and then i went to see professor mirsheimer and i'm not sure if he remembers this but

i asked him will you be our faculty advisor and he said i will sign the piece of paper

if i never have to do anything else after that so i had found my faculty advisor so

uh without further ado i would like to introduce the r wendell harrison distinguished professor

of political science Professor John J. Mearsheimer

Thank you very much for that kind introduction thanks all for coming out to hear me talk

uh the subject i want to talk about is the causes and consequences of the ukraine crisis

which of course has been in the news in a really big way since uh february 2014 and

indeed there was a big story uh on the civil war in eastern ukraine in the newspapers this

morning the outline i'd like to follow is i'd just like to make a number of preliminary

comments to give you some background on this crisis then i'd like to give you my thinking

on what caused the crisis then tell you why i think the conventional wisdom is wrong talk

a little bit about the west's response so far to the crisis which is just in my opinion

making a bad situation worse and tell you what i think should be done and then finally

wrap up with some discussion of the consequences so let me start with some preliminary comments

first with regard to america's core strategic interests for me core strategic interests

are areas of the world where you're willing to fight and die and in my opinion outside

of the western hemisphere which is of enormous strategic importance to us there are only

three areas of the world that really matter one is europe two is northeast asia and three

is the persian gulf and it's very important to understand that since this country got

its independence in 1783 europe has been the most important area of the world even though

the japanese attacked us at pearl harbor we had a europe first policy going into the war

and we had a europe first policy throughout the war and it's in large part because the

great powers in europe are more important than the great powers in northeast asia over

time of course the persian gulf was an important area because that's where the oil is and oil

is a critical resource that matters greatly in the international system so those are the

three most important areas outside the western hemisphere and again since the beginning of

this country europe has been number one you want to understand that we're undergoing a

fundamental shift shift of great importance asia because of the rise of china is going

to be the most important area of the world for the united states the persian gulf because

it's inextricably linked with asia oil flowing to india oil flowing to china the persian

gulf will be number two and europe will be a distant three we're basically leaving europe

in the rear view mirror and of course you want to keep this in mind because the ukraine

just had to think about the geography of europe this is a simple if not simplistic way of

thinking about it but here's a map you can see where ukraine is let's see where poland

is you can see where russia is the way i think about european security is there's france

germany poland ukraine and russia of course we're moving from west to east these are the

big kahunas these are the big countries that matter and of course the two countries that

matter the most historically are germany and russia or for most of the 20th century germany

and the soviet union and i put them in red because as you well know both germany and

the soviet union fought bitter wars in poland in ukraine and we could add in belarus as

well if need be but as we go along here you want to keep in mind that ukraine is right

next to russia and poland is right next to ukraine and then out further west is germany

and france take this a step further this is the ethnic breakdown of ukraine i'm going

to show you a number of maps all of which are designed to show you that ukraine is a

badly divided country and what's taking place inside ukraine today is in good part a civil

war and to that extent it doesn't have that much to do with what the russians or the west

are doing there and as you can see in red uh are mostly ukrainian-speaking people and

then as you move further east you're talking about lots of russians and certainly lots

of russian speakers uh this is the ukraine election of 2004. this is the election in

the wake of the famous orange revolution which i'll talk more about uh as you can see the

country is badly divided between the east and the west the russian speakers in the east

and ukrainian speakers in the west this is the 2010 election which resulted in yanukovych

getting elected i'll talk about president yanukovych as we go along he was elected in

2010 and you can see there the voting patterns in the 2010 election look a lot like the voting

patterns in the 2004 election and then these are two recent surveys that came out from

the international republican institute that's here in the united states this one says if

ukraine could enter only one international economic union which of the following should

it be and of course the blue is the eu and the light blue is the customs union or actually

the red is the customs union of russia belarus and kazakhstan and the cities up at the top

are in western ukraine and the cities down the bottom are in eastern ukraine so you can

see very clearly that people in the west would like to join the eu people in the east have

little interest in joining the eu those are the eu numbers hear the nato numbers i mean

these two charts look virtually the same but all of this tells you that you have a badly

divided country and the conflict between the west and russia over ukraine is played out

in the context of this situation this is a simple little view graph that shows europe's

dependent on russian gas it's quite clear from that view graph that many of the countries

in eastern europe and even countries like germany are heavily dependent on russian natural

gas and of course that gives the russians lots of political leverage in this crisis

and it makes it very difficult for us to put pressure on the russians okay those are just

a number of preliminary comments i wanted to throw out just to set this up let's talk

about the causes of the conflict i think if you're going to talk about the causes of the

conflict you have to come at it from three different perspectives first of all you have

to ask what are the deep causes of the crisis what are the structural factors that underpin

this conflict then you have to talk about the precipitating causes because the crisis

broke out on february 22nd 2014. things were not terrible until february 22 2014 and that's

when everything went to hell in a hand basket and the question is what caused it then if

you focus on deep causes it can't tell you why something happened in february 2014 but

the precipitating causes are designed to get at that and then what we want to talk about

is the russian reaction why the russians did what they did with regard to crimea with regard

to eastern ukraine we want to talk about exactly what they did and then why they did it so

let's start with the deep causes my argument is that the west is principally responsible

for this mess not the russians this of course is not the conventional wisdom in the united

states and in fact except for steve cohen who's now at princeton i mean now at nyu he

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为啥乌克兰是西方的软肋？John Mearsheimer回答（Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer）

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