troops to the borders of Ukraine. Putin did  what no one expected. He attacked Ukraine.  

This is absolutely devasting news to the world,  and such news can easily crash the stock market,  

especially since Russia is one of the  leading exports of oil and natural gas. 

Since 2011, oil prices haven't grown much. In  fact, many believed that oil has reached its  

peak and its not going to grow anymore. especially  since the beginning of the pandemic, the world was  

on lockdown, so the demand for oil dropped to  its b are minimum, however in a matter of a day,  

oil prices have surged to over 100 dollars. Some people don't care but with record inflation  

rates, rising oil prices mean more inflation. It's  not just about rising prices in the gas stations,  

but the price of oil affects literally everything  you buy. For that banana to reach the Walmart  

beside your house. It takes a long journey for  them to be shipped from Ecuador to the US. The  

containers filled with banans are loaded into  tracks and sent across the country. Rising oil  

prices mean, now it's more expensive to drive that  truck to your closest grocery store. Hence higher  

price. This is a simple example, but it's easy to  see how it applies to everything else you consume. 

We have already had a huge supply chain problem.  It was one of the main factors behind the 7.5  

percent inflation rate, and now imagine if we add  an oil crisis into it. inflation can rise as much  

as double digits, which could be catastrophic. The question is, how long wi ll this crisis last? 

Russia began gathering troops at the borders of  Ukraine since summer 2021. Multiple US officials  

warned that Russia is preparing for a full-scale  invasion but most people didn't take that  

seriously because the idea of a war in the middle  of Europe in 2 022 seemed just unreal. But it  

doesn't matter because it's already happening. The main question is - why?  

why Russia is invading Ukraine? The answer is actually quite simple. 

Putin has been in power since 1999. Over the last  22 years, he has mentioned multiple times that  

the collapse of the soviet union was the biggest  geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.  

Ever since then, he has been planning to  restore the soviet borders that include  

within them Belarus, Baltic countries, and  Ukraine together with central Asian countries. 

However, in the world of capitalism, Russia  struggled to attract them economically.  

We have done an entire video about how capitalism  in Russia didn't work as it was intended so former  

soviet republics turned to the west. The Baltic  countries joined nato and integrated with European  

countries. However, Belarus had a love and  hate relationship with Russia. From one side,  

it's close to Russia since they share a similar  culture, almost a similar language. From one other  

side, it wanted to be independent and closer to  the west. Unlike Belarus, Ukraine wanted to become  

a democratic European country but Russia had a  different plan. Russia established its puppet  

in Ukraine to which Ukrainians disagreed. In 2013, Ukrainian president Yanukovich  

had a choice to sign a trade deal with either  Europe or Russia. Guess what? He signed with  

Russia since he was funded by Russia. Ukrainians took to the street and  

ever since Ukraine and Russia have been  at war. Russian first annexed Crimea  

and started funding separatists in Danbass,  which created a lot of instability in Ukraine  

and For the past 8 years, Russia was waiting for  an opportunity to invade the rest of Ukraine. 

While comparing military powers, Russia is much  more powerful. But at the same time, it's not  

easy to take over the largest country in Europe  even if it's economically or militarily not that  

strong. But the pandemic played in Putin's hand. First protests erupted in the neighboring Belarus  

which forced the Belarussian  dictator to turn to Russia  

for help. Ever since then Russian troops are in  Belarus and controlling the country. In fact,  

the invasion of Ukraine started from Belarus since  it's much closer to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. 

The question is - how long will this war last?  Russia is expecting a quick and decisive victory.  

A couple of weeks or a month at best. Ukraine  heavily relies on Russian gas and cutting off  

Ukraine from Russian gas means freezing winter,  which could devastate the morale of the military.  

Ukraine hoped that NATO will be there to  help but Biden made it clear that not a  

single American soldier will step its foot  on Ukrainian soil. However, if the war drags  

for long that means oil prices will keep  rising which means worldwide high inflation. 

The problem with wars is that it makes the future  unpredictable. When the future is unpredictable,  

investors hold on to their cash  which lowers the demand in the market  

and drags stock prices down. that's why the  market has been down for the last few days. 

We have already expected a recession but  with rising oil prices, the recession could  

get worse, much worse, especially when the fed is  expected to raise the rates in march which most  

likely going to be in the middle of the conflict. Although the stock market doesn't really reflect  

the economy, if the economy isn't going to  recover, the markets are going to suffer. 

The worst-case scenario is stagflation. It's  when the fed raises rates and demand slows down  

while prices will keep rising because of the  energy crisis. People will have to spend a bigger  

chunk of their income on necessities which  will further lower demand for other goods.