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  • Just final thoughts, Michael, I know you said a few months ago, people should mortgage their house and buy a Bitcoin.

    只是最後的想法,邁克爾,我知道你在幾個月前說過,人們應該抵押他們的房子,買一個比特幣。

  • Do you still feel that way?

    你還會有這種感覺嗎?

  • And just final thoughts for people that have that have joined us for the last couple of hours to be clear.

    而對於在過去幾個小時內加入我們的人來說,只是最後的想法,以明確。

  • My my view here is is if you're in a monetary environment where the money supply is expanding at more than 15% a year And you can borrow money at 2% interest or 3% interest and you can buy something a tangible value that is not being debased or inflated away.

    我的觀點是,如果你處在一個貨幣環境中,貨幣供應量以每年15%以上的速度擴張,你可以以2%或3%的利息借到錢,你可以買到有形價值的東西,不會被貶值或膨脹掉。

  • It's probably a wise idea.

    這可能是一個明智的想法。

  • If you bought, if you buy a house and you pay 2.5% mortgage on the house and if the house is going up in value 25% a year, the time to buy the house is not next year, it's last year.

    如果你買了,如果你買了一棟房子,你為房子支付2.5%的抵押貸款,如果房子每年升值25%,買房子的時間不是明年,而是去年。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • So and the same is true if you if you had bought, if you if you borrowed money at 2.5% interest a year ago and bought the S and P.

    所以,如果你如果買了,如果你如果一年前以2.5%的利息借了錢,買了S和P,也是一樣的。

  • Index, It went up 37%.

    指數,它上漲了37%。

  • So the generic observation is when you can borrow money that is not marked to market for long durations for next to nothing.

    是以,一般的觀察是,當你能以幾乎沒有的價格借到沒有標價的長期資金。

  • If you have a use of proceeds that you're confident in, Then it's a good idea borrowing money at 2% interest to buy something that that is going to go up in value, anything north of 5% is arbitrage.

    如果你對收益的用途有信心,那麼以2%的利息借錢來購買會升值的東西是個好主意,任何超過5%的都是套利。

  • So I would say in general it's a it seems wise to me to hold tangible assets and let them appreciate in value as the money printer goes birth and not pay off your mortgage.

    是以,我想說的是,在我看來,持有有形資產並讓它們隨著印鈔機的誕生而升值,不償還抵押貸款是明智的。

  • If you believe in Bitcoin, then yeah.

    如果你相信比特幣,那麼是的。

  • Um, if you, if you didn't, if you have a million dollars of Bitcoin and you sell it In order to pay off your mortgage, what you did is you gave up an asset that was going on 280% a year.

    嗯,如果你,如果你沒有,如果你有一百萬美元的比特幣,你賣掉它來償還你的抵押貸款,你所做的是你放棄了一個每年280%的資產。

  • And let's just say it's going up 20% of your, let's be very conservative.

    我們就說它要比你的,讓我們非常保守的,上升20%。

  • Let's say it's going up 10% of your selling the asset, going up 10% a year in order to loan a million dollars to the bank and the bank is paying you 2.5% interest on it And the Federal Reserve is going to increase the money supply by 20%.

    比方說,你賣掉資產,每年上漲10%,以便向銀行貸款100萬美元,銀行付給你2.5%的利息 而美聯儲將增加20%的貨幣供應量。

  • So it doesn't make sense to pay off your mortgage.

    所以還清抵押貸款是沒有意義的。

  • If you have one, you should have, you should belong.

    如果你有一個,你應該有,你應該屬於。

  • That.

    這一點。

  • My general view on debt is you don't want to have short term market margin debt.

    我對債務的一般看法是,你不希望有短期的市場保證金債務。

  • Like don't go and buy crypto assets or Bitcoin on 10-1 margin.

    比如不要去買加密資產或比特幣的10-1保證金。

  • That's mark the market because you might get forced liquidated in an afternoon and lose everything.

    這就是標記市場,因為你可能在一個下午被強制清算,失去一切。

  • But The most subsidized debt in the world is mortgage debt.

    但是,世界上得到補貼最多的債務是抵押貸款債務。

  • The us government buys $40 billion mortgage-backed securities every month and they're keeping mortgage rates artificially low.

    美國政府每個月購買400億美元的抵押貸款支持證券,他們使抵押貸款利率人為地保持在低水平。

  • And so if you're paying off your mortgage debt, you're basically holding cash, You're basically taking $1 million federal reserve is debasing and devaluing at 20% a year, 30% a year.

    是以,如果你正在償還你的抵押貸款債務,你基本上是持有現金,你基本上是拿著100萬美元的聯邦儲備以每年20%、30%的速度貶值和貶值。

  • And so the only way to get ahead of that is flip it borrow a million dollars a 2% a year and then buy something which will hold its value and as to what you buy, you know, like obviously I believe that Bitcoin is the apex property.

    是以,領先的唯一方法是翻轉它,每年借一百萬美元,2%,然後買一些將保持其價值的東西,至於你買什麼,你知道,像顯然我相信比特幣是頂點財產。

  • But if you don't agree with me, study for 100 hours, if you still don't agree with me, study 1000 hours.

    但如果你不同意我的觀點,就學習100小時,如果你還是不同意我的觀點,就學習1000小時。

  • If you don't have time to study for 100 or 1000 hours, then forget about Bitcoin.

    如果你沒有時間學習100或1000個小時,那就忘了比特幣吧。

  • The next apex property is a piece of real estate that you're going to use for the rest of your life, right?

    下一個頂點房產是一塊你要用一輩子的房地產,對嗎?

  • And then the next apex property is a trophy asset that you think a wealthy person will want to buy off you in a decade.

    然後下一個頂點財產是一個戰利品資產,你認為十年後會有一個富人想從你這裡買走。

  • Ask yourself the question, what is it?

    問自己一個問題,它是什麼?

  • I can buy that someone with money and education will want to buy from me in a decade and that, you know, that gets you through a portfolio of high quality assets.

    我可以買到有資金和教育的人在十年後會想從我這裡買東西,而且,你知道,這讓你通過高質量的資產組合。

  • That's why people buy high growth.

    這就是人們購買高增長的原因。

  • You know, buy a digital monopoly, growing 25% a year.

    你知道,購買一個數字壟斷企業,每年增長25%。

  • If I had to bet on Facebook or Apple or Google vs value stock, I would bet on facebook, Apple and google because they can ship a product to a billion people over the weekend for a nickel and you know, I wouldn't buy a chain of you know, 20th century restaurants because they're not going to get 20 acts more efficient, you know, So I think that's kind of common sense and that that's what I think about that.

    如果我不得不在臉書或蘋果或谷歌與價值股上打賭,我會在臉書、蘋果和谷歌上打賭,因為他們可以在週末以五分錢的價格向10億人運送產品,你知道,我不會買一個你知道的20世紀的連鎖餐廳,因為他們不會得到20個行為更有效,你知道,所以我認為這是一種常識,這就是我對這一點的看法。

  • I think everybody should figure out what's their investment strategy or their savings strategy and and for your balance sheet, someone someone wants to give you death.

    我認為每個人都應該弄清楚什麼是他們的投資策略或他們的儲蓄策略,並且對於你的資產負債表,有人有人想給你死亡。

  • Not all debt is evil.

    並非所有的債務都是邪惡的。

  • If I launch you a billion dollars for 100 years at 0% interest, would you take it presumably?

    如果我向你推出10億美元,100年零利率,你大概會接受嗎?

  • Right.

    對。

  • Would it be irresponsible now, is it irresponsible to buy a billion dollars a Bitcoin for 100 years of 0% interest?

    現在是不負責任的,買一個10億美元的比特幣,100年的0利息,是不是不負責任的?

  • Well, if you think it's a good asset.

    好吧,如果你認為它是一個好的資產。

  • No, if you don't know what it is, I think Warren Buffet said if you're not willing to hold the thing for a decade for 10 years, you shouldn't hold it for 10 minutes.

    不,如果你不知道它是什麼,我想沃倫-巴菲特說過,如果你不願意持有這個東西10年,你就不應該持有10分鐘。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So that's my view on that.

    所以這就是我的看法。

  • If you, if you don't want to hold the thing for a decade, then don't hold it for 10 minutes.

    如果你,如果你不想拿著這個東西十年,那麼就不要拿著它10分鐘。

  • But but that's a separate question as to whether or not you take the billion dollars of debt for 0% interest for 100 years I think when someone's really give you $30 million loan, sorry, a 30 year loan for 2.5% interest, which is what the U.

    但是,但這是一個單獨的問題,至於你是否接受10億美元的債務,100年的零利率,我認為當有人真的給你3000萬美元的貸款,對不起,30年的貸款,2.5%的利息,這就是美國的情況。

  • S.

    S.

  • Rate is right now.

    率是現在。

  • It's pretty much close to free money for the rest of your life for most people, depending how old you are.

    對大多數人來說,這幾乎接近於你餘生的免費資金,這取決於你的年齡。

  • And so the losers are people that can't borrow the money.

    是以,輸家是那些無法借到錢的人。

  • Count yourself lucky you can borrow money for 30 years for two and a 1/2% interest.

    算你走運,你可以用2.5%的利息借30年的錢。

  • The losers.

    失敗者。

  • People who can't borrow the money because they have to basically hold all their cash like what do you don't have any assets?

    那些不能借錢的人,因為他們基本上必須持有所有的現金,比如你沒有任何資產,怎麼辦?

  • So you're making 100 grand a year and this year it's worth 100 grand and next year it's worth 80 grand.

    所以你一年賺10萬,今年值10萬,明年值8萬。

  • Next year it's worth 60 grand the next year it's worth 40 grand and next year it's worth uh huh.

    明年就值6萬,明年就值4萬,明年就值呃。

  • 30 grand and I can run that you know that Is a Taylor series, some kind of series out for about 20 years until I get you to it's worth nothing, Right?

    3萬塊錢,我可以讓它運行,你知道這是一個泰勒系列,某種系列大約20年,直到我讓你變得一文不值,對嗎?

  • So if you expect to live more than 10 years, if you discount it at 20% a year, you know, simple math will illustrate to you that it's going to be worth nothing.

    是以,如果你預計會活超過10年,如果你以每年20%的速度打折,你知道,簡單的數學會向你說明,這將是不值一提。

Just final thoughts, Michael, I know you said a few months ago, people should mortgage their house and buy a Bitcoin.

只是最後的想法,邁克爾,我知道你在幾個月前說過,人們應該抵押他們的房子,買一個比特幣。

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A2 初級 中文 貸款 抵押 利息 資產 債務 特幣

"抵押你的房子併購買比特幣"。- 邁克爾-賽勒 (“Mortage your house and buy Bitcoin.” - Michael Saylor)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 12 月 31 日
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