Name: 2022年的住房危機--所有百萬富翁都應該知道的5個跡象 (The 2022 Housing Crash - 5 Signs All Millionaires Should Know)
Uploaded: 2021-12-09T18:00:59.000Z
Duration: 11 min 34 s

We all have been complaining about how house prices have been rising faster than ever.

我們都一直在抱怨房價漲得比以前快。

每個月我們都有一個新的記錄。

What happened over the last year we saw with something unbelievable.

去年發生的事情，我們看到有一些令人難以置信的事情。

People will stand in lines to be able to have a chance to bid for a house.

人們會排隊等候，以便能夠有機會競拍到房子。

I'm not talking about being able to buy that house, But just having an opportunity to fight for it.

我不是說能夠買到那所房子，但只是有機會爭取。

People page 1020 or 30% over the asking price just to be the one who is going to buy that house.

人們的頁面比要價高1020或30%，只是為了成為那個要買房子的人。

However, that has changed in the last few months.

然而，這種情況在過去幾個月裡發生了變化。

The market seems like it has reached its peak and it doesn't seem like it is going to rise as it did before.

市場似乎已經達到了頂峰，似乎不會再像以前那樣上漲。

在四月的房地產經紀人網站上。

Data showed prices on active home listings are up a whopping 17.2% compared to a year prior in october that bomb declined considerably, falling to just 8.6%.

數據顯示，活躍的房屋掛牌價格與一年前的10月相比，上漲了高達17.2%，而這一比例大幅下降，僅有8.6%。

That doesn't mean prices are about to fall, but it definitely indicates the fact that they aren't growing like they used to, Some people are worried about a potential crush.

這並不意味著價格即將下跌，但它肯定表明了這樣一個事實，即價格不像以前那樣增長了，一些人擔心潛在的壓榨。

Others are coming as down by saying prices will keep rising but not at that pace.

其他人則表示，價格將繼續上漲，但不會以這種速度上漲。

Whatever opinion you're looking for it does exist out there.

無論你在尋找什麼意見，它確實存在於那裡。

But what we want to find out the facts because only based on them can we have a clear image of what's happening and what could potentially happen but before we do that I want to share with you a game that I have been playing lately.

但我們想找出事實，因為只有基於事實，我們才能對正在發生的事情和可能發生的事情有一個清晰的印象，但在這之前，我想與你們分享我最近玩的一個遊戲。

Raid shadow lenders who gladly sponsored this video.

襲擊影子貸款人，他們很樂意贊助這個視頻。

I don't usually play games on my phone, but this one is one of the few ones that I play they gave us some of the coolest characters you will ever find.

我通常不在手機上玩遊戲，但這個遊戲是我玩的少數遊戲之一，他們給了我們一些你會發現的最酷的角色。

他們一起組成了一個偉大的團隊。

There is always something human rate special events every day.

每天總有一些人率特別的活動。

A bunch of us and new champions and the brand new cards and bring that gives you a lot of new ways to use your champions and at the start of december rates releasing one of its biggest most anticipated features ever.

一群我們和新的冠軍，以及全新的卡，給你提供了很多使用你的冠軍的新方法，並在12月初發布了其有史以來最大的最令人期待的功能之一。

As you win battles, you will get rewards that you can use to expand your champions and upgrade them to build and defeated team.

當你贏得戰鬥時，你將獲得獎勵，你可以用來擴大你的冠軍，並升級他們，以建立和擊敗的團隊。

The challenge is to use your champions in the right combination to be able to win battles.

挑戰在於以正確的組合使用你的冠軍，以便能夠贏得戰鬥。

In this game, you can hit the link in the description or scan the QR code right here and as a new player you will get an epic hero.

在這個遊戲中，你可以點擊描述中的鏈接或掃描這裡的二維碼，作為一個新玩家，你將得到一個史詩般的英雄。

Yes, you will get her for free, but also 200,000 silver one XP boost one energy rayfield and one ancient shot.

是的，你會免費得到她，但也會得到200,000銀幣，一個XP提升，一個能量射線場和一個古代射擊。

So you can summon an Austin champion as you get engaged.

所以你可以在訂婚時召喚出一個奧斯汀冠軍。

You will find your rewards here in your inbox for the next 30 days only.

在這裡，你會發現你的獎勵只在未來30天內出現在你的收件箱中。

And now let's get back to the video real estate is such a market that it affects everyone and not only homeowners that includes investors, renters and so on, but the slow down in prices was expected.

現在讓我們回到視頻中來，房地產是這樣一個市場，它影響到每個人，不僅是房主，包括投資者、租房者等等，但價格的放緩是在意料之中的。

It was not a matter of if, but rather when so whoever ripped the benefits of this housing roller coaster is smart because we aren't going to see anything like this in the coming future.

這不是一個如果的問題，而是一個時間的問題，所以誰撕開了這個住房雲霄飛車的利益，誰就是聰明的，因為我們在未來不會看到這樣的事情。

However, it is still impossible to predict the market because even the Almighty algorithm, which has all the data you ever need to predict the market couldn't make it.

然而，預測市場仍然是不可能的，因為即使是全能的算法，它擁有你所需要的所有數據來預測市場也無法做到。

Yes, I am talking about Zillow, if you haven't been living under the rock, you probably heard about The disaster that Zillow went through by trying to use its data to rip the market but their plan backfired and zero stock is crashing down in the last few weeks at the time of the script, the stock has plunged by over 46%.

是的，我說的是Zillow，如果你沒有生活在岩石下，你可能聽說過Zillow經歷的災難，它試圖利用其數據來撕裂市場，但他們的計劃適得其反，在過去幾周裡，在寫劇本的時候，零股正在崩潰，股票已經暴跌了46%以上。

That is literally worse than what happened during the March 2020 Ark invest for example, sold its entire portfolio of Zillow stock.

這簡直比2020年3月期間發生的事情還要糟糕方舟投資例如出售了其全部的Zillow股票組合。

But to be honest, Zillow had a rough year.

但說實話，Zillow今年過得很艱難。

Although judging by the housing market, it should have had a great year anyways since Zillow has all of this data, it tried to predict accurately future home prices.

雖然從住房市場來看，無論如何應該有一個偉大的一年，因為Zillow擁有所有這些數據，它試圖準確預測未來的房價。

So it purchased thousands of homes More than 14,000 homes in just six months.

是以，它購買了數千套住房 在短短六個月內就購買了超過14000套住房。

It makes sense because Zillow literally has more data than anyone else.

這是有道理的，因為Zillow實際上比其他任何人都擁有更多的數據。

Zillah had overspends and was sitting on massive losses in the months to come.

Zillah有超額支出，並在未來幾個月內坐擁巨大的損失。

That resulted in a combined loss of $550 million.

這導致了5.5億美元的綜合損失。

And the end of business that had been rapidly growing.

而一直在迅速增長的業務也結束了。

The layoffs will pair 25% of zeros in charge stuff and the board decided to shut off the project.

裁員將對25%的零負責的東西，董事會決定關閉該項目。

So it comes to housing projections take them with a grain of salt because this market is literally uncontrollable, anything could happen.

是以，在談到住房預測時，要多加註意，因為這個市場實際上是不可控的，任何事情都可能發生。

But what is certain for sure is that getting a mortgage at a super low rate is a great deal.

但可以肯定的是，以超低利率獲得抵押貸款是一個很好的交易。

Mortgage rates picked at around 5% in 2018 and reach their lowest point in january 2021.

抵押貸款利率在2018年選在5%左右，在2021年1月達到最低點。

Just to give you an idea how much with a single percentage make in your final house price.

只是為了給你一個概念，一個百分比對你的最終房價有多大影響。

For the sake of example, let's take half a million dollar house for a 30 year mortgage with three and 4% mortgage rates with a 20% down payment.

為了舉例說明，讓我們以50萬美元的房子為例，進行30年的抵押貸款，抵押率為3和4%，首付為20%。

Of course, there are many other factors that would influence the price of a house, such as property taxes, insurance and so on.

當然，還有許多其他因素會影響到房子的價格，如房產稅、保險等等。

But let's take those factors out of the equation with the 4% mortgage rates and a 20% down payment, that $500,000 house would amount to $859,000.

但是，讓我們把這些因素排除在外，以4%的抵押貸款利率和20%的首付，那50萬美元的房子將達到85.9萬美元。

While at 3%, the total amount would equal to $758,000.

而按3%計算，總金額將相當於758,000美元。

A single percentage in this example equals to over $100,000.

在這個例子中，一個百分比等於超過10萬美元。

That is a pretty good amount of money, especially in the long run, it would make a real difference, especially if we count the opportunity cost.

這是一個相當不錯的金額，特別是從長遠來看，它將帶來真正的變化，特別是如果我們計算機會成本。

That's why when the mortgage rates dropped to their bare minimum, people rushed to secure a mortgage at that rate.

這就是為什麼當抵押貸款利率降至最低時，人們急於以該利率獲得抵押貸款。

Because even if they slightly over pay for a house, they will still win since their mortgage rate will cover it in the long run.

因為即使他們為房子稍微多付了一點錢，他們仍然會贏，因為從長遠來看，他們的抵押貸款利率會覆蓋它。

Especially if you factor in the fact that house prices genuinely rise over the long run either way you want to lose.

特別是如果你考慮到房價在長期內真正上漲的事實，無論你想失去哪種方式。

However, that astronomical demand led to the highest price increase in home prices in recent history.

然而，這種天文數字般的需求導致了近期歷史上房價的最高漲幅。

At some point, prices began to rise so much that even a low mortgage rates wouldn't compensate for it.

在某些時候，價格開始大幅上漲，即使是低抵押貸款利率也無法彌補。

I guess that's exactly what has been happening lately.

我想這正是最近所發生的事情。

Imagine for a moment when you have that kind of demand, but there is still a shortage of homes in the market, I guess the answer is obvious.

想象一下，當你有這樣的需求時，但市場上仍有房屋短缺，我想答案是顯而易見的。

It is not easy to build more homes, especially if you don't have the infrastructure in place.

建造更多的房屋並不容易，尤其是在你沒有基礎設施的情況下。

So according to the basic laws of supply and demand, when demand rises, well, supply stays the same prices increase.

是以，根據供應和需求的基本規律，當需求上升時，那麼，供應保持不變價格就會上升。

But what if the supply drops as well When the pandemic broke out, the future seemed unpredictable.

但是，如果供應量也下降了呢？ 當大流行病爆發時，未來似乎是不可預測的。

Even the stock market crashed, no one knew how to deal with this virus.

甚至股市崩潰，沒有人知道如何處理這種病毒。

We had no idea when the vaccine would be ready.

我們不知道疫苗何時會準備好。

So a lot of people felt hesitant to sell their homes, letting people to get into your house to check it out would create a risk of getting infected.

是以，很多人對出售房屋感到猶豫不決，讓人們進入你的房子檢查會產生被感染的風險。

So even those who are planning to sell their homes postpone it, which drove the price higher and higher on top of that.

是以，即使是那些打算出售房屋的人也會延後，這就促使價格在此基礎上越來越高。

When you see the value of your house rising so rapidly, the desire to sell it now instantly disappears.

當你看到你的房子的價值迅速上升時，現在賣掉它的願望立刻就消失了。

Why sell it now when you can sell it at a much higher price six months or a year later, that further diminished the supply of homes in the market creating a bigger shortage.

如果你可以在六個月或一年後以更高的價格出售，為什麼現在要賣掉它，這進一步減少了市場上的房屋供應，造成更大的短缺。

We've already made a few videos about the 2008 crash.

我們已經做了一些關於2008年崩潰的視頻。

And if you take a look at the factors that caused the Great Recession, you won't find any of them in the current soaring market, We don't have subprime mortgages, we don't have fake triple A ratings to junk loans and the industry is pretty regulated.

如果你看一下造成大衰退的因素，你不會在目前的飆升市場中找到任何一個因素。我們沒有次級抵押貸款，我們沒有假的三A評級的垃圾貸款，而且這個行業是相當規範。

Although the number of people who took mortgages did significantly increase due to the reasons we have explored earlier, most of them had good enough credit scores to keep up with their mortgage payments.

儘管由於我們前面探討的原因，接受抵押貸款的人數確實大幅增加，但他們中的大多數人都有足夠好的信用評分，能夠跟上他們的抵押貸款支付。

Well, house prices keep rising probably yes, but only time will tell however, we won't see anything like we have seen in the last year or so in the coming future.

好吧，房價繼續上漲可能是的，但只有時間會告訴我們，然而，在未來的日子裡，我們不會看到像過去一年左右的情況。

But that's just one prediction out of many when you're buying a house, you should not concern your stuff with short term ups and downs when you're taking a mortgage, You aren't taking it for 23 or five years.

但這只是許多預測中的一個，當你買房子時，你不應該關心你的東西，當你接受抵押貸款時，短期的起伏，你不是在接受23年或5年。

But for 30 years, you have no idea how many crashes and apps are going to happen during that period.

但對於30年來說，你不知道在此期間會發生多少次崩潰和應用程序。

Median house price is 30 years ago, were around $100,000.

房價中位數是30年前，都在10萬美元左右。

So 5, 10 or 15% crush wouldn't mean much in the long run.

是以，從長遠來看，5％、10％或15％的破碎率並不意味著什麼。

Of course it is much better if you can buy right there at the bottom.

當然，如果你能在底部買到，那就更好了。

However, even if you don't, it doesn't matter you're still safe even after the 2008 crush home prices rose back to the pre-crisis level in 2014 and are much higher.

然而，即使你不這樣做，也不要緊，你仍然是安全的，即使在2008年的擠壓後，房價在2014年回升到危機前的水準，而且要高出很多。

Now, that's the mentality you should use when buying a house.

現在，這就是你買房子時應該使用的心態。

And not a crypto mentality will, prices can shoot through the roof today and crush the next day.

而不是加密貨幣的心態會，價格今天射穿屋頂，第二天就粉碎了。

The real estate market is as old as civilization itself keep in mind that it was not just real estate, that sword that much.

房地產市場與文明本身一樣古老，請記住，它不僅僅是房地產，那把劍是那麼多。

We had a huge inflation overall asset prices across all sectors of dramatic reason.

我們有一個巨大的通貨膨脹整體資產價格的所有部門的戲劇性的原因。

So it's difficult to come to a conclusion that prices might crush in the coming future.

是以，很難得出結論，價格可能在未來粉碎。

What happened in the last two years is more like a boom and we might be at the end of it or it might just last a few more years.

過去兩年發生的事情更像是一種繁榮，我們可能處於它的末端，或者它可能只是再持續幾年。

Meanwhile you should learn how to take advantage out of this bomb.

同時，你應該學習如何利用這個炸彈。

You might need a fortune to get into real estate, but you don't need much if you're getting into the stock market, I get it.

你可能需要一筆錢來進入房地產，但如果你要進入股市，你不需要太多，我明白。

That's why I have created a course of skill share that will teach you everything you need to know about the stock market to start investing.

這就是為什麼我創建了一個技能分享的課程，將教你關於股市的一切知識，以開始投資。

It is simple, fully animated and straightforward.

它很簡單，完全是動畫，而且直截了當。