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  • tell me about, you know, Bitcoin.

    告訴我關於,你知道,比特幣。

  • Um, mm my good friend max Keiser is uh, you know, his name is max and he is a maximalist for him.

    嗯,我的好朋友馬克斯-凱澤是呃,你知道,他的名字叫馬克斯,對他來說,他是一個極致主義者。

  • It is Bitcoin or nothing.

    要麼是比特幣,要麼是一無所有。

  • And uh, you know, I respect MAx and Michael Sailor on the show and of course Michael Saylor is choosing to own Bitcoin for his public company balance sheet.

    而且,呃,你知道,我在節目中尊重MAx和邁克爾-賽勒,當然邁克爾-賽勒是為了他的上市公司資產負債表而選擇擁有比特幣。

  • I think that's a really smart move.

    我認為這是一個非常聰明的舉動。

  • He said brian, I like Bitcoin because it has low aspirations, it's not trying to be something else.

    他說,布萊恩,我喜歡比特幣,因為它的期望值很低,它沒有試圖成為其他東西。

  • It's also massively decentralized and Jeff booth has a lot of good things to say about it.

    它也是大規模的去中心化,而且傑夫的展位有很多關於它的好東西。

  • Um, how do you feel about other cryptocurrencies and how do you feel about the ethereum and the other ecosystems?

    嗯,你對其他加密貨幣有什麼看法,你對以太坊和其他生態系統有什麼看法?

  • Obviously everything is growing super fast.

    很明顯,一切都在超速發展。

  • Um, what is it 2.85 trillion market cap now across all the coins?

    嗯,現在所有硬幣的2.85萬億市值是多少?

  • Um, there's 12 14,000 protocols now and there's obviously something coming at a very shocking rate with very little information but how do you look at that from an investor analysis?

    嗯,現在有12個14000份協議,顯然有一些東西以非常令人震驚的速度出現,資訊非常少,但你如何從投資者的分析來看?

  • So a couple of ways.

    所以有幾個辦法。

  • One is that I, I separate pick one from the others in the sense that Bitcoin is the one that I think is decentralized enough to call sound money in the sense that there's no one who can change the monetary policy of it.

    一個是我,我從其他人中選出一個,我認為比特幣是一個去中心化的,足以稱為健全的貨幣,因為沒有人可以改變它的貨幣政策。

  • It's kind of designed in such a way.

    它是以這樣一種方式設計的。

  • Uh, I guess if you go back for a second for trade offs, right?

    呃,我想如果你回去換一換,對不對?

  • When you build a Blockchain, what essentially you're doing is you're making an inefficient database.

    當你建立一個區塊鏈時,本質上你所做的是你在做一個低效的數據庫。

  • Um, and it's a database that has the unique capability that can be stored in anyone's personal device around the world.

    嗯,它是一個數據庫,具有獨特的能力,可以存儲在世界各地任何人的個人設備中。

  • And that comes with advantages, mainly decentralization, but it also comes with tons of trade offs, because if you're gonna have thousands or millions of people store your database, it has to be tiny, it has to be low bandwidth.

    這有好處,主要是去中心化,但也有大量的交易,因為如果你要讓數千或數百萬人存儲你的數據庫,它必須是微小的,必須是低帶寬。

  • And so that's what it's really small and tight database and the more you try to add features to that or add throughput to that, you're sacrificing some degree of decentralization.

    是以,這就是它真正的小而緊密的數據庫,你越是試圖增加功能或增加吞吐量,你就越是要犧牲一定程度的分散性。

  • Um, and so there's that there's that tradeoff there.

    嗯,所以有那個有那個權衡的問題。

  • So Bitcoin is built like a cockroach in that space.

    所以比特幣就像一隻蟑螂一樣建在那個空間裡。

  • It's basically fully optimized for as much decentralization as possible and is willing to sacrifice other variables and that's what gives it uh, that sound money quality back in 2017 and the block size war, you know, 80% of the hash rate, the largest maker of Bitcoin miners, which, which was almost a monopoly.

    它基本上完全優化了儘可能多的去中心化,並願意犧牲其他變量,這就是給它呃,那種健全的貨幣品質,早在2017年,區塊大小的戰爭,你知道,80%的哈希率,最大的比特幣礦工製造商,這,這幾乎是一個壟斷。

  • Um, the largest exchanges and custodians.

    嗯,最大的交易所和託管人。

  • Uh, and some of the earlier developers all teamed up and they wanted to change Bitcoins block size and they couldn't do it.

    呃,早期的一些開發者都聯合起來,他們想改變比特幣的區塊大小,但他們做不到。

  • Um and so it was basically because of that distributed no network, because that decentralization, it's almost impossible to change without utterly massive consensus to change something.

    嗯,所以它基本上是因為那個分佈式的無網絡,因為那個去中心化,如果沒有徹底的大規模共識來改變一些東西,幾乎是不可能的。

  • And even then when it changes with, for example, its upcoming taproot, uh, soft fork, it changes through soft fork, you know, rather than hard forks.

    即使如此,當它發生變化時,例如,它即將到來的taproot,呃,軟分叉,它通過軟分叉變化,你知道,而不是硬分叉。

  • Um, and so Bitcoin in that sense is something that I consider to be sound money at this point.

    嗯,所以從這個意義上說,比特幣是我認為在這一點上是健全的貨幣。

  • Whereas when you go into other Kryptos they I think it's it's one on one hand if they're fully transparent with what they're doing um and and they're basically acknowledging the trade offs that they're making, there's certainly experimentation to be had here.

    而當你進入其他的Kryptos時,我認為這是一方面,如果他們對他們正在做的事情完全透明嗯,而且他們基本上承認他們正在做的交易,這裡肯定有實驗。

  • Um And even for example some of the things started on a theorem end up going onto onto Bitcoin defi as well.

    例如,有些東西從一個定理開始,最後也會轉到比特幣的定義上。

  • So there's innovation in the space, the challenge that we run into those other projects is that by expanding complexity on the base layer they sacrifice some degree of decentralization and there's a spectrum there and so we say ethereum obviously you put smart contracts into the base layer.

    是以,在這個領域有創新,我們遇到的其他項目的挑戰是,通過擴大基礎層的複雜性,他們犧牲了某種程度的去中心化,那裡有一個光譜,所以我們說以太坊顯然你把智能合約放到基礎層。

  • Um So one issues so you have a lot more features, you can do a lot more with it, you can do defy can use stable coins, you can do N.

    嗯,所以有一個問題,所以你有更多的功能,你可以用它做更多的事情,你可以做defy可以使用穩定的硬幣,你可以做N。

  • F.

    F.

  • T.

    T.

  • S.

    S.

  • Whereas Bitcoin can only do that with additional layers put on top of it.

    而比特幣只能通過在它上面添加額外的層來實現這一點。

  • So that's a whole different design philosophy.

    是以,這是一個完全不同的設計理念。

  • Um Whereas with the theory we can do on the base layer, the downside is so in order to do all these changes and they kind of their culture is based around changes and in an iteration and improvement they put for example difficulty bombs and the code uh And so they changed through hard forks rather than soft forks.

    而在理論上,我們可以在基礎層上做,缺點是為了做所有這些變化,他們那種文化是圍繞著變化的,在一個迭代和改進中,他們把例如困難的炸彈和代碼呃,所以他們通過硬分叉而不是軟分叉改變。

  • So it kind of takes away a lot of the power of the nodes and in addition the block size grows so much faster than Bitcoin's does where in a few years you're gonna need multiple terabytes of data if you want to build a validate the entire Blockchain um and so and it's also it's hard to sink it and then they're going to go to proof of stake and and and just you know just change that system and so there's more centralization risk there and then we get into another project if you so that that's kind of if you see the Bitcoins and ethereum argue with each other, it's often about decentralization and risk and things like that then if you get into something solana where you have a proof of stake, smart contract chain, it has a lot more throughput than ethereum, so a lot cheaper fees um but it comes with even more centralization, so you often see the theory and criticize solana for being too too centralized and they, you know, as an example of how centralized Alana is they still do manual slashing.

    是以,它帶走了很多節點的力量,此外,區塊大小的增長速度比比特幣快得多,在幾年內,如果你想建立一個驗證整個區塊鏈,你將需要多個TB的數據,是以,它也很難陷下去,然後他們會去證明股權,只是你知道只是改變這個系統,所以那裡有更多的中心化風險,然後我們進入另一個項目,如果你這樣,這就是那種如果你看到比特幣和以太坊相互爭論。如果你看到比特幣和以太坊互相爭論,往往是關於去中心化和風險之類的東西,那麼如果你進入Solana,你有一個股權證明,智能合約鏈,它比以太坊有更多的吞吐量,所以費用便宜很多嗯,但它有更多的中心化,

  • So proof of stake works on slashing, meaning that you know, if if a proof of work minor verifies the wrong Blockchain, their punishment is simply that they mined blocks that don't make it into the main chain, therefore they wasted real world resources um that's their own punishment whereas in a proof of stake because you're not using real resources at to validate your using your tokens, you have to get your part, some of your tokens taken away if you vote for the wrong chain.

    是以,股權證明的工作原理是削減,也就是說,如果一個工作證明的未成年人驗證了錯誤的區塊鏈,他們的懲罰只是他們開採的區塊沒有進入主鏈,是以他們浪費了現實世界的資源嗯,這是他們自己的懲罰,而在股權證明中,因為你沒有使用現實資源來驗證你使用你的代幣,你必須得到你的一部分,如果你投票給錯誤的鏈,你的一些代幣被剝奪。

  • Um and Selena still has manual slashing.

    嗯,賽琳娜仍然有手動削球。

  • So it's not even a fully automated Blockchain, developers still essentially have complete control over at the end of the day and we saw, you know, a couple months ago it went down for 17 hours, the entire Blockchain and had to be manually, they had to like talk and manually we started the validators.

    是以,它甚至不是一個完全自動化的區塊鏈,開發人員在一天結束時仍然有完全的控制權,我們看到,你知道,幾個月前,它癱瘓了17個小時,整個區塊鏈,不得不手動,他們不得不像談話和手動我們啟動驗證器。

  • Um and so there's a spectrum of decentralization there.

    嗯,所以那裡有一個權力下放的光譜。

  • And so I put Bitcoin in one bucket and all the others are kind of this experimental tech equities.

    所以我把比特幣放在一個桶裡,其他的都是這種實驗性的科技股票。

  • Um and so it's two very different types of investments.

    嗯,所以這是兩種非常不同的投資類型。

  • It's kind of like comparing, you know, uh like a startup company with with no profit yet, that's it's kind of getting an idea of the ground versus an established business, right?

    這有點像比較,你知道,呃,像一個還沒有盈利的初創公司,那是一種得到地面的想法與一個成熟的企業相比,對嗎?

  • So it's two very different ways of looking at it.

    所以這是兩種非常不同的看問題的方式。

  • But then another thing I do is I separate price action from fundamentals.

    但我做的另一件事是我把價格行為和基本面分開。

  • So for example, in my research service, I would talk about these issues with ethereum but then say, I think the next year it's going a lot higher.

    是以,例如,在我的研究服務中,我會談論以太坊的這些問題,但又說,我認為明年它的價格會高很多。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • So, and I would talk about some of the supply squeezes that are happening with it um basically once it broke over 1400 back in like january february, that's when I became quite bullish on ethereum along with Bitcoin in my in my service in terms of price and said, you know, unlike Bitcoin, I don't have a long term view on this necessarily.

    所以,我想談談它正在發生的一些供應擠壓 嗯,基本上,一旦它在1月和2月的時候突破了1400,那就是我在我的服務中在價格方面變得相當看好以太坊和比特幣,並說,你知道,與比特幣不同,我不一定對它有長期的看法。

  • I don't know if this is going to be the winner of the smart smart contract change, here's all the centralization risks, but all else being equal, there's a really attractive supply squeeze here is probably going higher.

    我不知道這是否會成為智能智能合約變革的贏家,這裡有所有的中心化風險,但在其他條件相同的情況下,這裡有一個真正有吸引力的供應擠壓可能會走高。

  • And I did the same thing for Selena.

    我也為賽琳娜做了同樣的事情。

  • So for example, you know, 2.5 months ago I said Selena has a good probability of flipping card a no.

    是以,例如,你知道,2.5個月前我說塞琳娜有很大的概率翻牌為不。

  • And back then Cardinal was 90 billion market cap in Solano was 40 billion.

    而當時卡迪納爾是900億,索拉諾的市值是400億。

  • Uh you know, a couple, you know, less than a week ago they did flip at least at least, you know, at least for the moment.

    呃,你知道,一對夫婦,你知道,不到一個星期前,他們確實翻轉了,至少,你知道,至少在目前。

tell me about, you know, Bitcoin.

告訴我關於,你知道,比特幣。

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比特幣或崩潰 (Bitcoin or Bust)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 12 月 06 日
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