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  • I think I heard you quote somewhere that like 86% of the commercial transactions are taking place uh in person anyways and that's the market you're going for.

    我想我聽到你在什麼地方引用了86%的商業交易正在發生,無論如何,這就是你要去的市場。

  • Did I get that stat right?

    我的統計數字對嗎?

  • Or was that pre pandemic or?

    或者是在大流行之前,還是?

  • No?

    不是嗎?

  • That's post pandemic really.

    那是大流行之後的事了。

  • Actually that that wood should be over 90% in the U.

    實際上,該木材在美國應該超過90%。

  • S.

    S.

  • That would surprise most people because they just assume they're making everything online in payments.

    這將使大多數人感到驚訝,因為他們只是認為他們在網上進行一切支付。

  • But is the reality different because they're not remembering each one of those physical payments they make.

    但現實是否不同,因為他們並不記得他們所做的每一筆實物支付。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So think about anyone that drives all your fuel purchases are done in person.

    是以,想想任何一個開車的人,你所有的燃料採購都是親自完成的。

  • When you go to the grocery store, all of those purchases are done in person uh still you know clothing and other like durable goods at home.

    當你去雜貨店的時候,所有這些購買都是親自完成的呃還是你知道衣服和其他類似耐用品在家裡。

  • All your furniture is a lot of it is purchasing person.

    你的所有傢俱有很多都是購買人。

  • So there's surprisingly a lot more um you know physical retail payments.

    是以,令人驚訝的是有更多的嗯,你知道物理零售支付。

  • I think people recognize particularly around grocery, you know those are some of the biggest markets out there.

    我認為人們認識到,特別是在雜貨店周圍,你知道那些是那裡最大的一些市場。

  • So we're like a you know a movie theater, right?

    所以我們就像一個你知道的電影院,對嗎?

  • All these things you start adding up actually do a lot of these things is like a human physical human being.

    所有這些事情你開始加起來實際上做了很多這些事情就像一個人的身體人。

  • And I'm making all these payments where a lot of the convenience products are often buying online.

    而我在做這些支付的時候,很多便利產品往往是在網上購買。

  • So e commerce is still absolutely still accelerating, right?

    所以電子商務仍然絕對還在加速發展,對嗎?

  • So it's not slowing down at all.

    所以它根本沒有放慢速度。

  • And the pandemic may be growing faster.

    而且這種大流行病可能正在加速增長。

  • So I think that number is going to continue going down and down and down.

    所以我認為這個數字將繼續下降,下降,下降。

  • But I don't see a world where it becomes zero or there'll be some point where it stabilizes where there's a certain amount of things we always buy in person.

    但我沒有看到一個世界,它變成了零,或者會有一些點,在那裡它穩定下來,有一定數量的東西我們總是親自去買。

  • It will just maintain that way.

    它將只是維持這種方式。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Now that I think about it every time I double click my phone and use Apple Pay during the day it's quite a few times you know because I'm walking here doing this doing that so it's actually more than I you know how often do I use amazon once every couple of days.

    現在我想一想,每次我雙擊我的手機,在白天使用蘋果支付,這是相當多的次數,你知道,因為我走在這裡做這個做那個,所以它實際上比我更多,你知道我有多經常使用亞馬遜,每兩天一次。

  • So it makes a really good point.

    所以它提出了一個非常好的觀點。

  • Alright let's look at a use case scenario right now say I go to a store that accepts say Bitcoin if you find one out there or light coin and it gives me the option of paying with crypto versus that same store that accepts flex to.

    好吧,讓我們看看現在的用例場景,比如說我去一家接受比特幣的商店,如果你在那裡找到一個或輕幣,它讓我選擇用加密貨幣支付,而同樣的商店則接受柔性貨幣。

  • Um And I don't know a good example.

    嗯 而且我不知道一個好的例子。

  • I don't know if Starbucks accepts that probably doesn't but I walk in right now.

    我不知道星巴克是否接受,可能不接受,但我現在就走了進去。

  • First of all is it even physically possible to pay with Bitcoin with the speed of transactions right now what is the current state of the art because I don't think most people know transaction times any of those other friction points that are currently there.

    首先,以現在的交易速度,用比特幣支付在物理上是否可能,目前的技術水平如何,因為我認為大多數人不知道交易時間,以及目前存在的其他摩擦點。

  • Oh man that's a I could take a few hours to answer that question.

    哦,夥計,那是一個我可以花幾個小時來回答這個問題。

  • The short answer is hens.

    簡短的答案是母雞。

  • Uh and it's all about the context.

    呃,這都是關於背景的。

  • So the first thing is do people want to spend Bitcoins?

    是以,第一件事是人們想花比特幣嗎?

  • That's already a whole hurdle and discussion register but assuming they do which is but they don't they don't, do they?

    這已經是一個完整的障礙和討論註冊,但假設他們這樣做,這是,但他們沒有,他們沒有,是嗎?

  • I don't think that I mean why why would you write?

    我不認為,我的意思是為什麼你會寫?

  • It's really it's narrative right now.

    這確實是它現在的敘述。

  • Right wrong or whatever uh is that it's a story value and why would you go buy things with the store value that you bought with the intent of it appreciating further?

    正確的錯誤或什麼呃是它是一個故事的價值,為什麼你會去買東西的商店價值,你買的目的是為了它進一步升值?

  • Um you know as a narrative right?

    嗯,你知道作為一個敘事的權利?

  • So you can agree or disagree but that is the prominent narrative.

    所以你可以同意或不同意,但這是突出的敘述。

  • So I don't really think people want to spend that stuff but assuming they do now it really depends on what you're buying and what the context is.

    所以我真的不認為人們想花這些東西,但假設他們現在想花,那真的取決於你買的是什麼,背景是什麼。

  • If it's someone that you reasonably trust or it's a small transaction you could probably do zero, you know unconfirmed transactions.

    如果是你合理地信任的人,或者是小的交易,你可能可以做零,你知道未經確認的交易。

  • You know just anything in the mental is going to be fine and you can actually get transactions pretty quickly that way.

    你知道只要是精神上的東西都會很好,而且你實際上可以通過這種方式很快得到交易。

  • So buying coffee in a reasonable way from someone or a small or medium sized merchant might just work great actually with like Bitcoin with Bitcoin would probably, but only Bitcoin right now nothing else would Um almost anything right if it was a small transaction if you were to give me $10 in crypto was really because the only thing that can happen is that you would basically replace that transaction with the higher fee transaction or You could work through some sort of a malicious network to try to take over the network or you have some insider information, you know there's gonna be some sort of weird for happening like these sorts of things.

    是以,以合理的方式從某人或一個小型或中型商人那裡購買咖啡可能只是偉大的工作,像比特幣與比特幣可能。但現在只有比特幣,沒有其他的東西,如果是一個小的交易,如果你給我10美元的加密貨幣,真的是因為唯一可能發生的事情是,你基本上會用更高的費用的交易來取代這個交易,或者你可以通過某種惡意的網絡來試圖接管網絡,或者你有一些內幕資訊,你知道會有一些奇怪的事情發生,比如這些事情。

  • The reality is for a $10 transaction that just doesn't play into the scope of a practical usability.

    現實情況是,對於10美元的交易來說,這只是沒有發揮出實際的可用性的範圍。

  • So for small transactions I think it's just completely fine.

    是以,對於小型交易,我認為它完全沒有問題。

  • You can just say hit the men pull it only takes a few seconds like this would actually be fine and I can accept this payment.

    你可以直接說打人拉,只需要幾秒鐘,像這樣其實就可以了,我可以接受這個付款。

  • The problem though is that it starts to scale That becomes now nontrivial of what risk is actually there.

    但問題是,它開始擴大規模,現在成為實際存在的風險的非微不足道的。

  • So there isn't an exact you know threshold.

    所以沒有一個確切的你知道的閾值。

  • But let's say you're someone like Walmart and you might be accepting $10 million 10 minutes.

    但是,假設你是像沃爾瑪這樣的人,你可能會在10分鐘內接受1000萬美元。

  • That's not a problem because that is a scale where now a miner could collude and actually you know present a different version of the chain and now all those transactions ever occurred right?

    這不是一個問題,因為這是一個規模,現在一個礦工可以串通起來,實際上你知道提出一個不同版本的鏈,現在所有這些交易曾經發生過,對嗎?

  • Or you could replace all those transactions you know with replace by fee and now and that's so economically feasible.

    或者你可以用收費取代所有這些交易,你知道,現在,這在經濟上是非常可行的。

  • Like in fact it's like the outcome.

    就像事實上它的結果一樣。

  • This is what fraudsters do.

    這就是欺詐者的做法。

  • There's literally um Stats that say something like a sad status, something like all Internet traffic to the continent of Africa like 60% is fraud like 60 because of how many operations have been set up there around.

    有字面上的嗯統計說,像一個悲傷的狀態,像所有的互聯網流量到非洲大陸,如60%是欺詐,因為有多少業務已經建立在那裡周圍。

  • Just like literally financial transaction fraud so that's just the scale that we're dealing with to where if you're going to open up a network like this like they don't understand it now it's an accepted the same way but there is zero chance that if there's a vulnerability where people can print tens of millions of dollars just do a simple vulnerability like that.

    就像字面上的金融交易欺詐,所以這只是我們正在處理的規模,在那裡,如果你要開放一個像這樣的網絡,就像他們現在不理解它一樣,這是一個被接受的方式,但如果有一個漏洞,人們可以打印數千萬美元,只是做這樣一個簡單的漏洞,這是零機會。

  • It will happen.

    它將會發生。

  • So there's a threshold where it becomes practically usable and fine versus there's no possible way we would ever consider this because this would be financial suicide.

    是以,有一個門檻,在這個門檻上,它變得實際可用,而且很好,與此同時,我們不可能考慮這個問題,因為這將是財務自殺。

  • So there's some inflection in the middle now even though these are in person because there's one thing if I swarm their online site with you know 400 orders in 1000 each.

    是以,現在中間有一些拐點,儘管這些都是當面的,因為有一件事,如果我在他們的在線網站上蜂擁而至,你知道400個訂單,每個1000個。

  • But if you've got to be in person for each one is that reduce the chance of fraud or they'll still, it still can be done.

    但是,如果你必須親自參加每一個人的活動,那麼就會減少欺詐的機會,或者他們仍然會,仍然可以做到這一點。

  • Still depends right?

    還是要看情況吧?

  • So let's say it was large enough and I was buying a $5000 tv or something right from one of these places and then I had 100 of my friends or 1000 because again these are crime syndicates that literally do this today.

    是以,假設它足夠大,我從這些地方之一購買5000美元的電視或其他東西,然後我有100個朋友或1000個朋友,因為這些是犯罪集團,他們今天確實在做這個。

  • And 1000 people are now all of a sudden buying these multi $1000 TVs to really push this up into the multimillion dollar figures all at once and at a scale like walmart, I mean you have more than 1000 stores so that's actually barely feasible and wouldn't even look all that crazy to happen and what they do is you make all those transactions and now all of a sudden there's millions of dollars worth of of you know one confirmation transactions and then you could just attack the chain and potentially published a new version and you could collude with minors.

    現在有1000人突然購買了這些價值1000美元的電視,一下子將其推高到數百萬美元的數字,在像沃爾瑪這樣的規模,我的意思是你有超過1000家商店,所以這實際上是勉強可行的,甚至不會看起來那麼瘋狂地發生,他們所做的是你進行所有這些交易,現在突然有價值數百萬美元的你知道的一個確認交易,然後你可以直接攻擊鏈,可能發佈一個新版本,你可以與未成年人勾結。

  • Again it's is it likely?

    還是那句話,這有可能嗎?

  • Probably not but it's a possibility and it's certainly not a risk that a merchant would underwrite by saying oh yeah we'll do this and we're totally subject to this black swan of something happening and we could just lose all these transactions all this value at any given time.

    可能不會,但這是一種可能性,這肯定不是一個商家會通過說哦,是的,我們會這樣做,我們完全受制於這種黑天鵝的事情發生,我們可能會在任何時候失去所有這些交易,所有這些價值。

  • Because yeah the short is just talking around economic finality to where the easier description is.

    因為是的,短篇只是圍繞著經濟的終結性來談,到哪裡是更容易描述的。

  • Let's just hypothetically say it costs $50,000 to its close right a block to the Bitcoin Blockchain, right?

    讓我們假設一下,它的成本是50,000美元,它的關閉權一個區塊到比特幣區塊鏈,對嗎?

  • So if that costs you $50,000, if I'm gonna give you $500,000 in a transaction.

    是以,如果這要花費你5萬美元,如果我在交易中給你50萬美元。

  • Well economically just Very hand wavy and straight forward, I should wait for 10 Bitcoin blocks Because in theory then it's economically advantageous to you to try to build the system to actually take over the chain.

    那麼在經濟上就很手浪,直截了當,我應該等待10個比特幣區塊 因為在理論上,那麼在經濟上對你是有利的,你可以嘗試建立系統來實際接管鏈。

  • Rewrite transactions because I need 10 blocks which would equate to $500,000 worth of value Where you get more than that back.

    重寫交易,因為我需要10個區塊,這將相當於50萬美元的價值,而你得到的回報超過了這個數字。

  • If you were able to rewrite the chain in less than 10 blocks.

    如果你能夠在不到10個區塊內重寫該鏈。

  • So that's you know a little bit of hand waving math.

    所以,這就是你知道的一點揮手的數學。

  • But the concept is absolutely true and so that's what this economic finality concept is is you know everyone likes to talk about this state of this Blockchain is final, right?

    但是這個概念是絕對正確的,所以這就是這個經濟最終性的概念,你知道每個人都喜歡談論這個區塊鏈的這個狀態是最終的,對嗎?

  • That this is a final state, like totally immutable.

    這是個最終的狀態,就像完全不可改變的。

  • Like yes, but there's always a cost where it can be.

    比如說是的,但在可以的地方總是有成本的。

  • There's always a non infinite cost to make something completely rewritable and to change the state of the chain.

    要使一些東西完全可重寫並改變鏈的狀態,總是有一個非無限的成本。

  • If you take over the chain or an approve of state network, there's other types of different attacks that you can, you can experience.

    如果你接管了連鎖店或準許的國家網絡,還有其他類型的不同攻擊,你可以,你可以經歷。

  • So again, you just need to get to a state where it's economically unfeasible or economically not valuable and then you're in great shape.

    是以,你只需要達到一個在經濟上不可行或在經濟上沒有價值的狀態,然後你就有了很好的狀態。

  • So I'm by no means saying this is a negative necessarily the system, but it's a limitation that to really harness all these sorts of payments you just need to be really aware of.

    是以,我絕不是說這是一個負面的系統,但這是一個限制,要真正利用所有這些付款,你只需要真正意識到。

  • Um, it's things like how exchanges, right, Crypto exchanges are the same where they wait for a certain amount of confirmations before they let you trade or draw assets.

    嗯,就是像交易所那樣的事情,對,加密貨幣交易所也是一樣的,他們在讓你交易或提取資產之前要等待一定數量的確認。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

I think I heard you quote somewhere that like 86% of the commercial transactions are taking place uh in person anyways and that's the market you're going for.

我想我聽到你在什麼地方引用了86%的商業交易正在發生,無論如何,這就是你要去的市場。

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86%的大流行病後的支付仍然是親自完成的 ?Tyler Spalding (86% OF POST PANDEMIC PAYMENTS ARE STILL DONE IN PERSON ? Tyler Spalding)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 11 月 24 日
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